Most fantasy football drafts are a couple of months out, but the arrival of the summer means it’s time to start preparing. And step one in that preparation is getting your rankings down.
Quarterback has been a tricky position in fantasy football over the years. It’s used to be highly valued until the “late-round quarterback” approach took hold. An influx in rushing production and overall elite play over the last few years has caused yet another shift. So let’s take a deeper look at the quarterback rankings, as well as who some of the top values and busts are for 2024.
Rank
Player
Team
Bye Week
40
Mac Jones
JAX
12
39
Kenny Pickett
PHI
5
38
Micahel Penix Jr.
ATL
12
37
Jake Browning
CIN
15
36
Sam Howell
SEA
10
35
Zach Wilson
DEN
14
34
Gardner Minshew
LV
10
33
Justin Fields
PIT
9
32
Aidan O’Connell
LV
10
31
Bo Nix
DEN
14
30
J.J. McCarthy
MIN
6
29
Daniel Jones
NYG
11
28
Geno Smith
SEA
10
27
Drake Maye
NE
14
26
Bryce Young
CAR
11
25
Will Levis
TEN
5
24
Russell Wilson
PIT
9
23
Derek Carr
NO
12
22
Deshaun Watson
CLE
10
21
Baker Mayfield
TB
11
20
Aaron Rodgers
NYJ
12
19
Matthew Stafford
LAR
6
18
Caleb Williams
CHI
7
17
Justin Herbert
LAC
5
16
Tua Tagovailoa
MIA
6
15
Trevor Lawrence
JAX
12
14
Jared Goff
DET
5
13
Kirk Cousins
ATL
12
12
Jayden Daniels
WAS
14
11
Brock Purdy
SF
9
10
Kyler Murray
ARI
11
9
Jordan Love
GB
10
8
Dak Prescott
DAL
7
7
Joe Burrow
CIN
12
6
Anthony Richardson
IND
14
5
C.J. Stroud
HOU
14
4
Lamar Jackson
BAL
14
3
Patrick Mahomes
KC
6
2
Josh Allen
BUF
12
1
Jalen Hurts
PHI
5
Now that we’ve seen the rankings, let’s look at who the biggest quarterback values you should draft are based on who is ranked significantly ahead of their average draft position (ADP) from FantasyPros.
Jayden Daniels (Ranked QB12, ADP QB17)
The biggest value on the list is rookie Jayden Daniels. As the QB17 by ADP, he’s not even being selected as a high-end backup. In reality, he’s ranked as a low-end starting option (for 12-team leagues), and his upside is much higher than that. Fantasy value for young quarterbacks typically comes from rushing production, and that’s something Daniels offers in spades. There’s a chance he turns into a bust, of course, but when you’re drafting him in a spot where league mates are taking guys like Trevor Lawrence and Aaron Rodgers, that’s not a risk that would come back to burn you anyway.
Kirk Cousins (Ranked QB13, ADP QB18)
Kirk Cousins’ ADP makes him the perfect complement for a riskier quarterback like Daniels. Assuming everything ends up clear on the injury front, Cousins should be a pretty safe high-floor kind of player. He’s not going to suddenly blossom into a top-end QB1 the way Daniels could, but he could save you when injuries or bye weeks hit. Ignoring quarterbacks early and pairing Daniels and Cousins in the later rounds is a great approach to capitalize on this value.
Jalen Hurts (Ranked QB1, ADP QB2)
A one-spot difference is not as significant as the gaps we see for Dainels and Cousins, but one spot is significant when it’s the top spot at the position. If your draft approach is to try landing the year’s best quarterback, you can afford to wait a little longer than you might typically. Allen is going as the first quarterback off the board, and if you’re in a more casual league you could even see Hurts falling to the QB3 or QB4 spot because of the name value Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson carry.
On the other side of the coin, these are quarterbacks you should not be drafting. They’re ranked significantly behind their ADP as of our last update.
Tua Tagovailoa (Ranked QB16, ADP QB13)
The 2023 NFL passing yards leader, Tua Tagovailoa is missing a couple of key factors for being a top-end fantasy option in 2024. First, he doesn’t offer any rushing upside (74 yards and 0 touchdowns in 2023). Second, his huge passing upside last year skewed heavily toward the start of the season, not offering much consistency or value when the fantasy playoffs rolled around. For his final eight games of the fantasy football season (weeks 9 through 17), he ranked just 26th at the position in per-game fantasy scoring, averaging just 14.3 per game.
Caleb Williams (Ranked QB18, ADP QB14)
On the other side of the rookie coin, first-overall pick Caleb Williams offers none of the exciting value Jaylen Daniels does. Williams is in a great spot for real-world success as a rookie, for sure, but he’s not the rusher that Daniels is, and the Bears offense also doesn’t figure to be nearly as pass-heavy as the Commanders’.
Jared Goff (Ranked QB14, ADP QB12)
Jared Goff isn’t a horrible pick, being taken two spots ahead of where we have him ranked, but when you’re looking at the difference between QB12 (a low-end starter) and QB14 (a high-end backup), that does matter. Goff was the QB15 in fantasy scoring on a per-game basis last season, and not much has happened with the Lions’ roster this offseason to signal he’s due for a jump. His high-floor production is very replaceable with players going later in the draft, and if you’re taking one of the first 12 quarterbacks off the board in your league, you want it to be one with way more upside.
I have been a running back truther for as long as I can remember playing fantasy football. My first-ever draft pick came back in 1998 when I took Terrell Davis. I later traded for then-rookie Fred Taylor. Can you say championship?
Since then, I’ve focused my early-round picks on runners. From Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk, and LaDainian Tomlinson in the past to the likes of Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall in more recent years, getting a few stud runners was always at the forefront of my fantasy roster build.
So, when the “Zero RB Strategy” was introduced by Shawn Siegeleback in 2013, I scoffed. This philosophy is based on completely avoiding running backs in the first five rounds. Instead, fantasy fans load up on wide receivers, a tight end, and a quarterback before turning their attention to the running back position. To me, it made zero sense. After all, backs have long been the lifeblood of fantasy football!
Why the hell would I avoid that?
In my opinion, the Zero RB strategy required a lot of luck. You had to hope at least a few of the backs you drafted after the first five rounds panned out, and many times those lottery tickets ended up in the waiver wire garbage. If you didn’t land a breakout or sleeper runner on the wire either, well, your backfield was likely trash. In this scenario, a bad backfield was a fantasy death sentence.
Then, the 2022 season happened.
A few of the running backs we’ve leaned on for years, like Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, and Leonard Fournette (to name a few), saw their totals decline at some level. The top overall pick, Jonathan Taylor, finished as the RB32, making it the third straight year the consensus top pick was a runner who failed to meet expectations. We also saw a further increase in the number of backfield committees emerge around the league.
At the same time, wide receivers thrived.
Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb were among the young wideouts who were rising up. A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith (to name a few) also thrived for fantasy fans. And while the position isn’t completely clear of injuries (Cooper Kupp), it’s far less likely a receiver will suffer a long-term ailment compared to a running back. That’s part of the reason we are seeing so many runners holding out over current contractual issues while No. 2 and 3 wide receivers are getting their bags.
This has been the perfect storm of sorts, and it’s created a huge shift in the importance of wideouts. In the high-stakes world of the NFFC, where some of the best fantasy players play for oodles of dough, eight of the top 12 overall picks are wideouts. What’s more, 17 of the first 36 picks (top three rounds) are receivers. It’s a different world, folks.
When we include these factors, plus the emergence of the top-tier quarterbacks and tight ends as top-50 overall choices, we’re now seeing running backs getting pushed down draft boards. It’s created a scenario where (I can’t believe I’m saying this), the Zero RB Strategy is a more viable approach. In fact, I have even used it in the last two years.
Do I use this all the time? No. I prefer an altered version where I draft three wideouts in the first four rounds. The other two picks are likely running backs. I’ve also used the “Hero RB” philosophy, which has managers grab a running back in Round 1 and then go with wide receivers in each of the next three rounds. It all depends on where you’re drafting and the flow of the draft, but I’ve pushed runners down in my top 200 regardless.
That doesn’t mean I’m avoiding the position altogether, of course. Besides CMC, I’d love to get Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall or Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round this yaer. But when you look at the ADP data, there are more elite runners on the board later in drafts.
Right now, you can draft productive running backs like Kamara, Rhamondre Stevenson, James Conner and D’Andre Swift outside of the top 50. Breakout/sleeper runners, who used to go in the top 50 when managers would reach at the position, are also on the board much later. This season, that list includes the likes of Zamir White, Jonathon Brooks and Zack Moss, who are all available outside the top 80 based on the current ADP data at the NFFC. Heck, you can even get Nick Chubb outside of the top 90. I know he’s coming off a gruesome knee injury, but he’d have been picked much higher in past years.
This strategy isn’t for everyone. Heck, I’ve even said I don’t follow it to a tee. It might be my long love affair with running backs that keeps me from avoiding the position with each of my first five picks. With that said, I am far more likely to have three and maybe four wide receivers on my roster with my first five picks than I would have five years ago.
Don’t be afraid to make that switch to your draft strategies either. Offenses around the NFL have evolved, and fantasy managers should follow. I did. Much like Jedi master Yoda told Luke Skywalker in The Empire Strikes Back, “you must unlearn what you have learned.”
Stats. They can be deceiving, especially in the world of fantasy football.
Case in point … in 2022, Miles Sanders rushed for over 1,200 yards, scored 11 total touchdowns, and was the RB15. Seems pretty good, right? Well, what if I told you he scored fewer than 12 points in 10-of-17 games (59%), and 41 percent of his points came in three games? Suddenly, Sanders isn’t looking so good … and that showed in 2023.
With that in mind, I dove into the numbers and picked out 25 nuggets you need to know before you draft your fantasy football teams in 2024. Some surround false perceptions of players, like Sanders in 2022, while others point out how coaching changes did and could affect future player outcomes. Others discuss player personnel moves and how those will positively or negatively affect how a player performs in 2024.
So, sit back, relax, read and make sure to keep these nuggets in mind when you draft!
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen averaged 22.5 fantasy points in 10 games with Ken Dorsey as the offensive coordinator last season. During that time, the Bills ranked 13th in pass percentage and 20th in run percentage. When Dorsey was fired and the Bills promoted Joe Brady, Allen averaged 24.1 points (seven games). The Bills went from 13th to 31st in pass percentage and from 20th to second in run percentage. Those are notable differences.
C.J. Stroud threw the ball 499 times last season. That tied for 14th among quarterbacks. His leading receivers, Nico Collins and Tank Dell, averaged 7.3 targets and 6.8 targets per game, respectively. Stefon Diggs, acquired in a trade with the Bills, averaged 9.4 targets per game last season. If we project these target totals over a full season, Stroud would throw the ball 400 times to Diggs, Collins and Dell alone for them to meet those averages.
In Kliff Kingsbury’s five seasons as the head coach in Arizona, Kyler Murray averaged 6.5 rushes and 37.7 rushing yards per game. He also rushed for 26 touchdowns. That is good news for rookie Jayden Daniels, who will work under Kingsbury in Washington. In his final two seasons at LSU, Daniels rushed 321 times for 2,019 yards and 21 scores.
Jared Goff is scheduled to play 14 of his 17 games this season in either a dome or a retractable roof stadium. In his 25 career home games in Detroit, Goff has averaged 19.3 fantasy points. Ford Field, of course, is a dome. That’s the good news. The bad news is that in six road games in a dome or retractable roof stadium as a member of the Lions, Goff has averaged a mere 10.5 points. So, even if he’s played in a dome or retractable roof stadium, Goff has still not finished with great numbers when he hasn’t played at home.
The Los Angeles Chargers ranked seventh in pass percentage last season with Kellen Moore leading the offense. Justin Herbert averaged 35.1 pass attempts in 13 games. New offensive coordinator Greg Roman has served as OC for three different teams in 10 years at the NFL level. In that time, his offenses finished 30th, 30th, 32nd, 26th, 32nd, 31st, 32nd, 21st and 30th in pass percentage. The most pass attempts one of his field generals has averaged was Lamar Jackson (31.8 in 2021). He is the lone quarterback to average more than 30 pass attempts per game under Roman. That’s bad news for Herbert.
Matthew Stafford finished last season as the QB15, averaging 16.2 points per game. It was a tale of two seasons, however, as Stafford averaged 251.1 passing yards, 13.5 fantasy points and scored nine touchdowns in his first nine games. Over his final six starts, he averaged 284.1 passing yards, 20.3 points and threw 15 touchdowns. In that span, Stafford scored at least 18.5 points in five straight games. He had strung together five straight such performance just once before in his career (2013). Also notable is that Stafford averaged 17 points in the 11 games where he had both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua available.
Deshaun Watson has started and finished 11 games over the last two seasons with the Browns, averaging 15.8 fantasy points. It should be noted, however, that he was better last season (17.7 points per game) than in 2022, when he averaged just 14.3 points after an extended absence from the league due to off-field issues. That includes three games where he scored at least 18.9 points. While it was just five games, Watson was still an asset.
The Cincinnati Bengals ranked second in pass percentage last year under former offensive coordinator Brian Callahan. On the flip side, the team ranked 31st in run percentage. By comparison, the Tennessee Titans, Callahan’s new team, were 24th in pass percentage and ninth in run percentage. With Callahan now leading the Titans offense and Derrick Henry no longer on the roster, those numbers are destined to change. That’s good news for Will Levis, who has some fantasy sleeper/breakout appeal in what should be a pass-laden attack.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs played 13 games last season, averaging 20.7 touches and 13.9 points. He also averaged 2.6 yards per rush, which was a drop of almost three full yards compared to 2022. When Jacobs missed the last four games, Zamir White took over as the main running back in Las Vegas. He averaged 23.3 touches and 15.2 points during that time, bettering Jacobs in both categories. With Jacobs now in Green Bay, White will be a popular breakout back.
James Cook averaged 14.4 touches (12 rushes) and 11.8 fantasy points in 10 games with Ken Dorsey at the helm of the Bills offense. When Joe Brady took over as the new offensive coordinator, Cook averaged 19.6 touches (16.7 rushes) and 16.4 PPR points. That’s an increase of nearly five fantasy points under Brady’s guidance. Cook could be on the verge of a big season, so I can see him being picked as early as the third round in drafts.
The addition of Zach Charbonnet didn’t put a huge dent into Ken Walker’s touch share last season. In 14 games where both running backs were active, Walker averaged 16 touches to Charbonnet’s 7.4 touches. In his first two seasons in the NFL, before the Seahawks drafted Charbonnet, Walker averaged 17 and 16.5 touches, respectively. So, unless things change with the new coaching staff, Walker should still be seen as a solid No. 2 runner.
Raheem Mostert averaged 15.6 touches and 17.9 fantasy points in 15 games last season. In six contests played without De’Vone Achane, he averaged 14.5 touches and 16.6 points. In nine games played with Achane in the lineup, Mostert averaged 16.3 touches and 18.7 points. So, Mostert was surprisingly betterand more productive when Achane was active.
Najee Harris averaged 16.7 touches and 11.6 fantasy points per game last season. He also averaged 0.69 points per touch. His teammate, Jaylen Warren, averaged 12.4 touches and 11.5 points per game. He averaged 0.94 points per touch. So, while Harris is going a few rounds higher than Warren in drafts based on current ADP data, the latter runner was more efficient last season and will no doubt be a better bargain in your fantasy drafts.
Aaron Jones scored fewer than 10 fantasy points in all but three of his first eight games of last season. In that time, he averaged 12.8 touches, 3.8 yards per rush and 10.9 points. Over his final three regular-season games, however, he averaged 23.3 touches, 5.7 yards per rush and 15.9 points. If we also include his two playoff games, Jones averaged 22.6 touches, 5.7 yards per rush and 19.4 points in his final five contests. He rushed for 100-plus yards in every game. Before this magical stretch, Jones had never rushed for 100-plus yards in more than two consecutive games in his career. When you also consider that his overall points-per-game average has declined five straight years dating back to 2019, and that incredibly productive stretch of games looks like a massive outlier.
In six games as the featured running back in New England last season, Ezekiel Elliott averaged 20 touches (14.8 rushes). He averaged just 2.9 yards per rush, however, and 66 percent of his total PPR fantasy points in those games came as a receiver. Now back in Dallas, I wouldn’t expect a lot from Zeke as a runner. In fact, he’ll need to be used as a receiver and get the majority of the red zone carries to hit his flex starter ceiling.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson averaged 7.2 catches, 114.2 yards and scored three touchdowns in five games with Kirk Cousins under center last season. In those games, he averaged 21.8 fantasy points. In his five games without Cousins (Nick Mullen was under center), he averaged 6.4 catches, 100.6 yards and scored two touchdowns. Jefferson still put up a solid 18.6 points per game in those contests. With Cousins now in Minnesota, Jefferson will be catching passes from either rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy or veteran journeyman Sam Darnold. It’s a downgrade, but he’s still a top-five wideout.
Speaking of Cousins, just 12.5 percent of his throws last season could be labeled as “bad” (excluding spikes or throwaways). His catchable throw percentage was 81.4. In Atlanta, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke threw “bad” passes almost 20 percent of the time. Ridder’s catchable throw percentage was 75.5, while Heinicke’s was 63.2. Their combined off-target throw percentage was 22.8. Obviously, Cousins’ presence is great news for the fantasy potential of breakout candidate Drake London, whose ADP is moving up.
Puka Nacua played 12 games with Cooper Kupp last season. He averaged 5.2 catches, 78.7 yards and scored four touchdowns in those games. His fantasy point average was 15.7. In the five games Nacua played without Kupp, he averaged 8.6 catches, 108.4 yards and scored two touchdowns. His fantasy point average was 21.9 points. That is more than a six-point increase in games where Kupp was out. If Kupp can avoid injuries this season, Nacua, a first-round fantasy selection, will be hard-pressed to duplicate his 2023 totals.
Davante Adams averaged 6.5 catches, 67 yards and scored five touchdowns in 11 games with Aidan O’Connell under center for the Las Vegas Raiders. In that time, he averaged 15.9 fantasy points. He also scored 12-plus PPR points in all but two games, including five games with more than 15 points. If we project his average points scored with O’Connell under center over 17 games, Adams will score 270 points. That would be slightly more fantasy points than he scored last season (265.4), so Adams remains a fantasy WR1.
Michael Pittman Jr. averaged nearly 12 targets and 18 fantasy points in his three full games with Anthony Richardson under center in 2023. That’s a small sample size, but it’s notable. In his other 13 games without Richardson, Pittman Jr. averaged 9.4 targets and 15.1 fantasy points. He also scored just three touchdowns in that time. So, the concerns about Pittman seeing his stat declining with Richardson under center shouldn’t be so prominent.
Stefon Diggs averaged 10.2 targets and 20.2 fantasy points in 10 games with Ken Dorsey as the offensive coordinator in Buffalo. He scored seven touchdowns in those games. When Dorsey was fired and the Bills promoted Joe Brady, Diggs averaged 8.2 targets and 10.3 points (seven games), and was held to one touchdown. Now in Houston, Diggs’ targets-per-game average could top off at around eight, as he’ll have to share the workload with Nico Collins, Tank Dell and others. I see him as a No. 2 fantasy wideout this season.
Tight Ends
Evan Engram averaged 13.6 points last season, which was good enough to finish fourth among tight ends. It should be noted, however, he averaged 10.4 points in his first 11 games. While that’s certainly respectable, that average swelled to 19.3 points in his final six contests. During that time, he scored at least 17.5 points four times including three games with more than 23 points and one with more than 32 points. In his prior 53 games between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants, he scored at least 17.5 points just twice. So, that six-game stretch was a massive career outlier. I’d expect some regression.
David Njoku averaged 4.1 catches, 38.3 yards and scored one touchdown in six games with Watson under center last season. In that time, he averaged 8.7 points. In his five games with Joe Flacco, Njoku averaged 7.5 catches, 78 yards and scored four touchdowns. Those totals were good enough to average 18.2 points per game, which is nearly 10 more points than he averaged with Watson at the helm. Flacco is no longer in Cleveland, so fantasy fans have to hope his totals with Watson improve. Otherwise, he could be a dud.
Trey McBride averaged three targets and 4.6 fantasy points in his first seven games of last season while playing with Zach Ertz. When Ertz went down with an injury, McBride averaged 8.5 targets and nearly 15 fantasy points the rest of the season. He’ll be one of the most popular breakout tight ends in 2024 fantasy football drafts. In fact, I have him ranked in my initial tier with Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.
No tight end in the league who played in at least 15 games and saw at least 75 targets last season had a lower catchable pass percentage than Kyle Pitts. The tight end who saw the second-most catchable passes based on those same parameters was T.J. Hockenson, who played most of his games with Cousins. Now the starting quarterback in Atlanta, Cousins should help Pitts finally meet his lofty statistical and fantasy expectations in 2024.
The 2024 NFL season is fast approaching, so it’s time to look at fantasy positional “tiers.” Unlike my PPR player rankings, tiers group players of similar value. So, if you miss out on a particular player on a tier in your draft, you can see other players on that same tier who are good alternatives.
I’ve covered the quarterback teirs, so now let’s look at the running backs. With the number of true featured runners dwindling, backs have lost some of their past luster in drafts. This should change strategies, as managers can wait and still land productive runners in rounds 4-5 and beyond.
Tier 1 – The Elite
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers
McCaffrey has a chance to finish his career as one of the best fantasy running backs ever, even on the same level as greats like LaDainian Tomlinson and Marshall Faulk. For that reason, I have him on his own tier. He’ll be the consensus top overall pick in the majority of drafts too, making McCaffrey the most valued asset in fantasy football once again.
Robinson had a good but not great rookie season, finishing ninth in PPR points. Still, I can see him pushing into the top three in Year 2, as he’ll no longer be “handcuffed” under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. Hall finished second in points among runners last season, and that was after coming off a serious knee injury. Barkley, who finished as the RB12 in 2023, should push into the top five or 10 behind a solid Eagles offensive line. Gibbs will continue to split work in Detroit with David Montgomery, but he has top-five upside.
Tier 3 – Mid RB1s
Jonathan Taylor, Colts Travis Etienne, Jaguars Kyren Williams, Rams
Taylor had his ups and downs last season, but he finished strong with 17-plus points in three of his last four games. He also won’t lose work to Zack Moss, who is now with the Bengals. Etienne, last season’s No. 3 runner, will be picked in Round 2 or 3. Williams was a superstar last year, scoring 15 touchdowns in 12 games. He does lack durability, however, and the Rams drafted Blake Corum. That makes Williams a bit of a risk, but he's still a top-25 pick.
Jacobs is coming off a bad season, especially compared to what he accomplished in 2022, but signing with the Packers is a positive for his fantasy appeal. Henry is entering his age-30 season, but he still finished as the RB8 last year and has little competition for touches in Baltimore. White might struggle to duplicate the RB4 finish he had last year, but he’ll remain a top-50 overall fantasy selection. White is also a strong pass catcher, which benefits his value. Pacheco is the featured back in Kansas City and could push into the top 10.
Achane was a fantasy superstar at times as a rookie, but his ceiling could still be limited with Raheem Mostert in the Miami backfield. Still, he has RB1 potential. Cook was solid once Joe Brady took over the Bills offense last season, averaging more than 16 points. He should remain the team’s lead back, even with the addition of rookie Ray Davis. Kamara averaged almost 20 touches per game last season and should still be in the RB1/RB2 mix. Walker hasn’t truly busted out in the stat sheets, but he’s been a steady No. 2 option.
Tier 6 – Mid RB2s
Joe Mixon, Texans Zack Moss, Bengals D'Andre Swift, Bears Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots James Conner, Cardinals
Mixon’s move to Houston could affect his touches to a degree, but he’s still a solid No. 2 option. Remember, he finished as the RB6 last season. His replacement in Cincinnati, Moss, will be a popular breakout candidate. I can see him easily finishing in the top 15-20 runners as their featured back. Swift was the RB20 with the Eagles in 2023, and he’ll push for that sort of finish now that he’s in Chicago. Stevenson didn’t put up great totals last season, but he also missed five games. In PPR formats, he should push back into the RB2 range even with Antonio Gibson in the mix. Conner was a league winner for managers at the end of last season, but he missed four games and could lose some work to rookie Trey Benson.
Tier 7 – Low RB2s
Zamir White, Raiders Jonathon Brooks, Panthers Nick Chubb, Browns Aaron Jones, Vikings Raheem Mostert, Dolphins David Montgomery, Lions
This tier includes sleepers/breakouts White and Brooks, who could see a featured role for their respective teams. Chubb is coming off a serious knee injury, so it’s tough to project him as more than a No. 2 fantasy runner. If he can re-claim his previous form, however, Chubb could be a major bargain. Jones missed six games a season ago, but he was a star down the stretch and figures to be the top back in Minnesota. Mostert is coming off a career year that saw him score 21 touchdowns, so regression is imminent. Montgomery was the RB17 in 2023, but he’s likely to play second fiddle to Gibbs.
Tier 8 – High RB3s/Flex
Najee Harris, Steelers Tony Pollard, Titans Austin Ekeler, Commanders Javonte Williams, Broncos Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders
Harris hasn’t been able to return to the elite fantasy status he enjoyed as a rookie, and the emergence of Jaylen Warren makes him hard to trust as more than a flex. Pollard, coming off a disappointing final season in Dallas, could find himself in a committee with Tyjae Spears. Ekeler and Robinson Jr. will share the work in Washington, limiting both their ceilings, and Williams finds himself in a crowded Denver backfield that could limit his upside.
Singletary could be a nice bargain in fantasy drafts, as he knows Brian Daboll's offense well and has little competition for touches. Warren was more efficient than Harris last season, so he’s not too far behind his teammate in the rankings. The Titans will use both Pollard and Spears in their backfield, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the latter was more effective in the stat sheets. Zeke is back in Dallas, but he’ll be part of a committee with Rico Dowdle and others.
This tier includes handcuffs and backs who will compete for depth-chart positioning in camp. Benson, Allgeier and Ford will all be valuable insurance, while Edwards and Dobbins will compete for the top spot in Los Angeles (though a committee is imminent). Charbonnet, Brown and Corum will also be seen as handcuffs, though all three could push for standalone value.
Tier 11 – Mid to Low RB4s/Handcuffs
Ty Chandler, Vikings Rico Dowdle, Cowboys Chuba Hubbard, Panthers Antonio Gibson, Patriots Alexander Mattison, Raiders Kendre Miller, Saints
This tier is also full of committee backs and potential fantasy handcuffs, including guys like Chandler, Dowdle and Hubbard. Each of them, and Gibson, could also push for standalone flex value. Miller could be a deep sleeper if Kamara is forced to miss some playing time.
Welcome to the “dart throw” tier! This group includes potential handcuffs and several young running backs competing for touches with their respective teams. Vidal is an interesting option, as he’ll have the one-dimensional Edwards and the injury-prone Dobbins ahead of him on the Chargers depth chart. Fellow rookies Lloyd, Davis, and Wright are late fliers, but none of them will open the season higher than second on their teams.
