This NBA Season Is Full of Mysteries

Happy NBA season opener, y’all.

Welcome back to The Playmaker for the 2022–23 campaign. I hope you’ve had a good summer and fall—mine’s been great, as Michigan football has been doing the damn thing so far—and that you’re just as excited as I am for the NBA to be back.

Expect to see the newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday. Like last season, I’ll do my best to shine a light and give my two cents on what’s happening around the league, while also linking you to some of the best content on the sport each week, both from SI and elsewhere.

In this first edition, I’ll take you through a trio of burning questions that are already bubbling to the surface, then finish with my best guesses on a handful of over/unders for certain teams that intrigue me heading into this season.

As always, feel free to share your thoughts with me or bug me with questions that I may use as fodder for a future newsletter topic: [email protected].

Will the Lakers finally trade Russ?

They probably won’t do it right away. But they should.

Can I just briefly say what’s annoyed me about the Lakers in recent years? It’s the fact that they’ve stopped just short of making moves that pretty obviously would’ve helped them.

There was the obvious interest in Anthony Davis back in 2018–19, but as the rumors persisted, yet no deal transpired, the youngsters whose names kept being floated in potential deals started pressing, and the Lakers missed the playoffs entirely, largely wasting LeBron’s first season in L.A. (He also injured his groin that year, which didn’t help matters.) After they finally landed Davis and won the championship in ’20, they took an injury-plagued step back in ’21. Then they began parting ways with key parts of the defense, trading away Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (for Westbrook) and failing to reach a deal with defensive stud Alex Caruso, who later explained that he offered to come back to Los Angeles at a discounted rate. And none of this even gets to the Buddy Hield or DeMar DeRozan scenarios they could have engaged in last year instead of dealing for Westbrook, a player who so obviously wasn’t going to fit what the Lakers wanted.

Now, they’ve had opportunities to deal Westbrook away to Indiana to pick up Hield and Myles Turner, who would have instant roles in Los Angeles, all while unloading a player who plays with a completely different sort of rhythm than the rest of the club.

That isn’t Westbrook’s fault. But the Lakers trying to fix stuff around that problem instead of just fixing the problem is so odd. Yes, it’d cost them more than they’d like. But LeBron is almost 38. Davis is a well-established injury risk whenever he steps on the floor. You have a first-time head coach in Darvin Ham.

Why wouldn’t you seek to give yourself the easiest path to contention by taking care of the Westbrook issues now, instead of holding out hope that they’ll get better later on?

The delay in making a move reminds me of the potential Davis trade hanging over the club back before they got him. Increased success is so clearly on the other side of this—a roster that would make more sense is on the other side of this—but the team is focused on the few remaining future assets it has, hoping it can save them by waiting till closer to the trade deadline.

Just go for it, man. The constant rumors and half-stepping around this situation certainly don’t help Westbrook, and they don’t appear to be helping the Lakers as an organization, either.

Will waves from the offseason and preseason calm down for three contenders?

What do the Suns, Celtics and Warriors all have in common?

They all won big—Phoenix owning the best regular-season mark by eight full games, Boston taking the East and Golden State taking the Larry O’Brien trophy—yet enter this season with a bit of drama.

Just in case you need refreshers on what that drama entailed:

On a smaller scale, too, ex-starter Jae Crowder opted against reporting to camp after he was told the team would move Cam Johnson into the starting lineup. He’s sitting out until the Suns find a trade for him. And none of this even touches on the messiness of the Robert Sarver saga, which eventually led to him saying he’d seek to sell the Suns and Mercury.

There hasn’t been a hell of a lot of detail out there publicly as to what happened, and even the players themselves feel left in the dark concerning what all took place—something that might be necessary from a legal standpoint. But that doesn’t mean it won’t leave things a bit unsettled for the team, which seemed to have formed a bond with Udoka in dominating the league from January on.

Winning would likely go a long way in mending fences, and it’d certainly do more for the respective teams than losing would. But there’s also an argument to be made that winning alone—at least in the regular season—may not be a cure-all.

Frustration over contract disputes always has the potential to hit on a much more personal level. Ayton got his money, but it came only after the Suns were forced to figure out what they’d do about his future. Even before Green’s punch, he’d expressed doubt that he’d reach an extension with the Warriors before the season began. Since then, the former Defensive Player of the Year has seen a pair of teammates—Poole and Andrew Wiggins—receive nine-figure extensions.

Money can be a fantastic motivator. But with teams this talented already—especially the defending-champion Warriors—there’s something far more at play than individual stats and accolades. Chemistry and the ability to coexist among a group obviously matter a great deal.

In the case of the Celtics, who will be led by interim coach Joe Mazzulla, the situation is fascinating. In telling players like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown they needed to move the ball around more, Udoka zagged last season in a spot where many first-time coaches probably would have zigged. It resulted in a huge, night-and-day sort of payoff for the club, which effectively became unbeatable in the second half of the campaign.

We don’t know yet what issues, if any, Mazzulla will run into during the regular season. It may be that the Celtics don’t encounter any true challenges until the postseason. How he responds to them, both tactically and in terms of how vocal he is about his team’s flaws, will undoubtedly have an impact on the team’s outcomes. And with that in mind, Mazzulla’s success could also impact whether the team feels it’s necessary to bring back Udoka.

Is Ben Simmons ready to return to form, and what does it mean for the Nets?

All Simmons needs to do is be healthy and commit to being a disruptive defender to have a massive impact with this Brooklyn group.

Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving can carry the load as primary ballhandlers. Joe Harris (who also desperately needs to stay healthy) and Seth Curry can provide perimeter shooting. Simmons can be a grab-and-go menace in fastbreak scenarios and an occasional pick-and-roll playmaker with bench units. His perimeter shooting has never been such an afterthought. The Nets have plenty of space, unlike his teams in Philadelphia. What the Nets don’t have, however, is an abundance of guys who can get stops along the arc—the very thing that helped the Celtics sweep Brooklyn last postseason.

A simple look at Simmons’s aggressive play in preseason illustrates he’s still capable of hounding ballhandlers with his long arms and 6’10” frame. He gives the Nets a new sort of lineup flexibility and ability to go small.

Of course it still remains to be seen how the other pressing questions will play out. Can Durant, Steve Nash and the team’s management truly sweep all the ridiculousness from this summer under the rug? Will Nash take a tactical step forward with this group after a terribly disappointing playoff showing against Boston? (Assistant Igor Kokoskov being on the bench may help there.) Can Kyrie, in a contract year, prove capable of making news because of his ability to play basketball, rather than the reasons he’s been in the news over the past year? Can Durant avoid an injury that will keep him out for 20 to 30 games?

The team has the talent to accomplish something great. But after last season, no one could be blamed for wanting to see the operation play out smoothly for a few weeks before reaching the conclusion that this will all work out.

Meat and potatoes: Good reads from SI and elsewhere this past week

• Chris Mannix wrote a column on Jordan Poole, arguing that his decision to take the high road when asked about the incident with Green might help smooth over some of the hard feelings involved as the season kicks off.

• Brittney Griner remains in Russia, awaiting an appeal hearing set for next week. Recently, Griner’s wife, Cherelle, described a conversation she had with the basketball star as “the most disturbing phone call I’ve ever experienced” due to Griner’s current mental state. Daniela Perez wrote on that, while our Madison Williams wrote on the doubt Griner’s begun voicing about whether the U.S. will ultimately be able to secure her release from Russia. She’s been detained there for 243 days and counting.

• Mike Vorkunov had a really interesting piece on new Blazers assistant GM Mike Schmitz, the 32-year-old who had spent years traveling the globe to analyze draft prospects for ESPN. While the media-to-front-office switchover is somewhat rare, I had no clue how tangled the timing was for Mike, who is genuinely one of the nicer people I’ve ever encountered in covering the sport.

NBA Over/Under

In light of the season beginning tonight, I figured I’d take a crack at a handful of over/unders before it’s too late. Here are the East and West over/under lines at SI Betting, if you need ’em.

Pistons (28.5): UNDER

WHY: In these sorts of prognostications, you often want to downplay what you’ve seen in preseason because … it’s preseason. Rotations are zany, the outcomes don’t matter, etc., etc.

That said, the young Pistons—which on paper look as if they have the talent to make things interesting at the back end of the play-in race—looked another year away or so in this latest exhibition round. They were 0–4, posted the league’s worst preseason field-goal percentage and hardly looked competitive most of the time, getting outscored to the tune of 14.2 points per 100 possessions.

The addition of Bojan Bogdanović will give the team a bit more scoring punch, but the division of labor between backcourt mates rookie Jaden Ivey and second-year stud Cade Cunningham remains to be seen. At the same time, if Detroit ends up with one more high-level pick, it might not be such a bad thing.

Sixers (50.5): OVER

WHY: Philadelphia currently boasts perhaps its most complete roster of the Joel Embiid era, complete with small-ball extraordinaire P.J. Tucker, elite-depth pickup De’Anthony Melton and Danuel House. That’s in addition to having a full camp with James Harden, who joined the club at last season’s trade deadline, and Tyrese Maxey, a player who could legitimately push the Sixers across the line for an NBA crown if he makes another jump this season.

Embiid’s health always matters to this team’s bottom line. But keep in mind: Last year’s Sixers—a club that got nothing out of Simmons’s max-contract slot until trading him for Harden—managed to win 51 games. This roster has more top-to-bottom depth, figures to get a full season of Harden and one more year of experience from Maxey. Taking the over here seems like one of the safest bets there is.

Mavericks (48.5): UNDER

WHY: Dallas is among the most interesting case studies and the focus of some intense debate.

On the one hand, the Mavs didn’t bring in much outside talent this offseason aside from adding Christian Wood after Jalen Brunson left for New York. On the other, 23-year-old Luka Dončić still plays for this team and is enough reason to believe that more improvement is on the way.

That said, defense was what often made last year’s club special. So injecting more of Wood (whether off the bench or as a starter) and Tim Hardaway Jr. into the lineup may make for a less impactful group defensively at times. That, combined with Dončić having even more responsibility as a creator than he had when he posted the highest usage rate of any guard last year, strikes me as a reason Dallas may take a slight step back this coming season.

Timberwolves (47.5): OVER

WHY: I’m a tad wary of Minnesota’s over, just because, aside from all those picks, the club surrendered so many quality rotation players in trading for Rudy Gobert.

Still, Gobert is reason enough to believe the Wolves are capable of fielding a top-10 defense. And that, paired with the dangerous offensive stars like Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards, is enticing to think about. On the surface, it seems like more than 47.5 victories, even if the team raises fair questions about whether the Gobert deal will yield dividends in the playoffs, where matchups and the ability to cover the entire floor—rather than just the rim—matter a lot more.

Nuggets (50.5): OVER

WHY: Take a quick look at Denver’s schedule. Do you see what I see?

Over the first 11 games of the Nuggets’ season, eight are against teams that failed to reach the postseason. Two others are against the Jazz, who did reach the playoffs, but have no interest in accomplishing that goal this season.

In a nutshell, Denver has a chance to jump out to a great start as it helps Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. get their legs back under them. The early confidence boosts and what should be an improved Nuggets defense with Bruce Brown and Caldwell-Pope are reasons to take the over here, especially considering Denver flirted with that number last season when Nikola Jokić was the only healthy star available.

Lakers (45.5): UNDER

WHY: Circling back to the message I began this newsletter with, I would feel comfortable taking the over here only if Los Angeles opts to move Westbrook sooner rather than later.

Even if the hope was to play him less because of a deeper rotation at point guard—the Lakers recently picked up Dennis Schröder again, and that came after the trade for Patrick Beverley—Schröder is now out for the first couple of weeks, meaning Westbrook figures to be relied upon.

Hield and Turner would fit a handful of needs for the Lakers and increase the likelihood of them hitting the over if picked up on the early side. But short of that, the under feels a safer pick, especially if no other reinforcements are on the way until closer to the deadline.

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