The Boston Celtics beat the Dallas Mavericks 106-99 on Wednesday at American Airlines Center to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the NBA Finals. The Mavericks made a furious comeback in the fourth quarter, but fell short after star Luka Doncic fouled out on a couple questionable calls that he really did not agree with.
The home crowd was understandably dead as the Celtics pulled away in the third quarter, which is when the Mavericks X account tweeted one of the saddest things you’ll ever see. The X equivalent of “please clap.”
This near the end of the third as the Celtics lead ballooned and Jaylen Brown prepared to put a stamp on a 35-19 quarter with a thunderous dunk that took them to the fourth with a 15-point lead. Meanwhile, back on the Internet, the team’s post was getting roasted.
The funny thing is, it must have worked. During the break between quarters and the Celtics extending their lead to 21 fans must have had time to check their phones and get the message. What else could explain the team’s 22-2 run?
Sure, they ultimately came up short, but what a social media effort. If there’s ever been a case for posting through it, this is it.
Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum. Kyrie Irving vs. Boston. Kristaps Porzingis vs. Dallas.
The stage is set for the 2024 NBA Finals, and we could be in for quite the series, especially since both of these teams have gotten a ton of rest since the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.
Game 1 – on June 6 – is still a few days away, but the betting markets for the NBA Finals are alive and well. Not only are there odds for the series winner, exact games and NBA Finals MVP, but bettors can also wager on series-long player props ahead of Game 1 as well.
Using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, I’m taking a deep dive into this series where the Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win their first title in the Jayson Tatum era – something that has been building all season long in the futures market.
Dallas, who is the No. 5 seed in the West, won three consecutive playoff series as a road team and underdog, but can it win one more? Doncic and Irving certainly are as well-equipped as a duo could be to lead their team to the promised land.
As someone who is holding a preseason future on Boston, there are several ways to play this series. But, before getting into my pick, let’s discuss the series odds, correct score and Finals MVP markets and how they may shake out.
Based on implied probability, Boston has a 67.74 percent chance to win this series, while Dallas clocks in at 36.36 percent.
It makes sense since Boston has home-court advantage in this matchup, but the Mavericks have played some great basketball as of late. Not only did they post the best defensive rating in the NBA over their last 15 games of the regular season, but they closed the season on a 16-4 run to earn the No. 5 seed.
Since the trade deadline, when Dallas acquired PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, it has been a totally different team.
However, there is one thing that I’ve been tracking for years that is working against Dallas in this series. Since the 1996-97 season, every team that has won the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in net rating during the regular season.
Dallas did not in the 2023-24 campaign.
Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
Is this the year that this trend breaks? It could be given how drastically the Mavs’ roster changed at the trade deadline. Dallas had a net rating of +1.3 before the All-Star break (around the trade deadline) and it ended up posting a +3.7 net rating in 27 games out of the All-Star break – which was good for 12th in the NBA.
I try not to read into these trends too much, but this one has extended over 25 years, so it’s going to take a special team to break it.
As for Boston, this has been the expectation for the team all season long. The C’s have been Finals favorites for most of the campaign, and they rolled through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs.
While Boston has been maligned for having an easier path to the Finals due to injuries to its opponents, the Celtics beat whoever was in front of them, going 12-2 on their run. It’s hard to be much better than that.
Since Boston is heavily favored to win this series, it has the three most likely outcomes in the correct score odds at DraftKings.
Given Boston’s dominance on the road (6-0 this postseason), it isn’t crazy to think that this series could be over in five or six games, even though Dallas has yet to face a Game 7 all postseason.
The Mavericks’ most likely outcome is to take the series in six games, with a four or five game win sitting as a massive long shot. Dallas has an implied probability of just 7.69 percent to win in five games and five percent to win in four games.
Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite to win NBA Finals MVP with Boston favored in this series, but can we count out Jaylen Brown?
Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, yet he’s +650 to win Finals MVP. Tatum has played much better as of late, but he started the postseason off in a bit of a shooting slump, and will likely draw one of Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. for the entirety of the series against Dallas.
Luka Doncic (+205) is also interesting since he leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made.
Obviously, Dallas would have to overcome being a massive underdog for Doncic to win this award, but at +205 he presents some more value than simply taking the Mavs to win the series. It’s tough to see any other Dallas player winning this award based on the odds, unless Kyrie Irving has a massive series scoring the ball.
Doncic has been a triple-double machine in these playoffs, so we know he’s going to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis, which would help him when it comes to the Finals MVP voting.
Even though oddsmakers don’t seem to think this matchup will be super close, I actually believe we’re in for a terrific series given how Dallas matches up defensively with the Celtics.
Washington, Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II are all versatile defenders that could match up with Tatum, Brown and Porzingis respectively on defense. On the Boston side of things, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are about as good of a duo as you can have to deal with the offensive expertise of Doncic and Irving.
Dallas and Boston have both thrived in clutch minutes so far this postseason, and each team has All-Star closers that can take over a game. If Porzingis is back – and it seems like he is trending in that direction – both teams will also be as healthy as they’ve been all playoffs now that Maxi Kleber is back from a shoulder injury for Dallas.
So where does Boston’s advantage truly lie?
While the Celtics faced three banged-up teams to up the playoffs, they dominated a good chunk of their games, only losing on masterful Game 2 shooting performances by Miami (23-for-43 from 3 in Game 2) and Cleveland (13-for-28 from 3 in Game 2). In both of those games, Boston failed to make double-digit 3-pointers, but it has been one of the best shooting teams all season.
Doncic and Irving present a challenge the C’s haven’t faced yet, but to say Boston isn’t battle tested is flat out wrong.
The Celtics are 6-0 on the road in the playoffs and turned three games in the Eastern Conference Finals where their opponent – the Indiana Pacers – had a 90 percent win probability or higher, into wins. Regardless of who is on the floor, that’s impressive resilience from a team that has played in big games a lot in the Tatum-Brown era.
Dallas’ role players are going to have to knock down shots in this series – and they have for most of the playoffs – but Boston has more offensive firepower when Porzingis is in the lineup. A lot of people are forgetting they rolled through the last two rounds without KP’s 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds on the floor.
Moving Al Horford to a smaller role should combat the problems Boston had defending the pick-and-roll this postseason, and Porzingis (if healthy) gives Boston elite rim protection against lob threats like Gafford and Lively.
Dallas’ offense doesn’t have the ability to spread the floor like Boston’s does, and while I believe Doncic is the best player in this series, Boston has shown all season long that it is the best team.
I don’t think Dallas gets run out of the building like Boston did to the East, but given the Celtics’ ability to win on the road in this postseason – and past postseasons – with this core, I think they clean this up in six games.
Pick: Celtics in 6 (+475)
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At long last, the NBA Finals are just a day away, and I’m ready to lock in three plays for Game 1 – all of which end up being on the Boston side.
Earlier this week, I made my official prediction for this series (Boston Celtics in 6), and like many NBA fans, I’m ready for this series between Boston and the Dallas Mavericks to start.
This season, I’ve bet on the NBA every day that there have been games, and while we’re not positive on the year at the moment, a Celtics preseason future could get us there – depending upon how these Finals go.
We’re starting strong in Game 1 with three plays – two props and one side – with Boston entering the game as a 6.5-point favorite.
Eastern Conference Finals MVP Jaylen Brown has been terrific in the playoffs, averaging 25.0 points per game while shooting 54.3 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from 3-point range.
Brown has been much more efficient than Jayson Tatum, and he finds himself with a points prop that is four points lower than his co-star in Game 1.
I love the OVER here for Brown, who has cleared 22.5 points in nine of his 14 playoff games, including all four of his matchups in the Eastern Conference Finals.
While the return of Kristaps Porzingis could eat into Brown’s usage, I don’t expect KP to return to his normal role in his first game back from a calf injury. Brown has played a ton of minutes, clearing 40 in three of his last five games, and he’s taken at least 17 shots in 11 of 14 games this postseason.
JB has some serious value at this number ahead of Game 1.
Jrue Holiday OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-122) – 0.5 unit
Jrue Holiday may not win an ECF MVP or Finals MVP, but he has been a massive difference maker in his first season in Boston.
Holiday’s defensive prowess makes him a staple in Joe Mazzulla’s rotation, and dating back to the second round he’s really stuffed the stat sheet overall.
Holiday is averaging 17.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game over his last seven games, clearing 22.5 PRA in six of those contests.
I imagine Holiday will draw the assignment on either Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving, and he should play heavy minutes in Game 1. Betting on Boston props is a little volatile since we don’t know Porzingis’ usage, but this number has dropped significantly for Holiday compared to the 25.5 and 26.5’s that we saw in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The only NBA champion on the Boston roster should continue his strong play in Game 1.
Boston Celtics -6.5 (-110) vs. Dallas Mavericks – 0.5 unit
I think that bodes well for a Boston team that covered in two of its three Game 1s so far this postseason and was 37-4 straight up at home in the regular season. The C’s also posted a 26-21-2 against the spread record as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of victory of 14.4 points.
I have a lot of respect for the run Dallas made, but Jason Kidd’s team has struggled in Game 1s since he took over, going 1-5 straight up and losing four of those five games by seven or more points.
Boston – the best team in the NBA all season long – has been disrespected in my eyes entering this series. It went 12-2 on its run to the Finals and easily posted the best net rating of any team in the playoffs.
I’ll lay the points with the C’s in Game 1.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Editors’ note, June 5, 4:40 p.m. ET: This story has been updated to reflect the Boston Celtics' injury report for Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals.
There are many impressive aspects of the Boston Celtics' march through the Eastern Conference to the NBA Finals. Perhaps most impressive is that they ran through all their opponents without Kristaps Porzingis.
Porzingis, who averaged 20.1 points and 1.9 blocks in 29.6 minutes per game this season, went down with a calf injury on April 29 during Game 4 of the Celtics' first round series against the Miami Heat.. He hasn't seen the floor since, but Boston still posted an absurd 12-2 record over the first three rounds of the playoffs. Since he was healthy for one of those losses, that means the Celtics lost only one game in the month Porzingis has missed.
It is remarkable in many ways and speaks to the depth of the roster that president of basketball operations Brad Stevens built. And with Boston securing its place in the 2024 NBA Finals by way of sweeping the Indiana Pacers on Monday night, the time has finally arrived to see if the franchise can earn its 18th championship. The health of Porzingis will play a substantial role in that quest, and the Celtics earned themselves an extended break to get everybody (including their Latvian big man) healthy as can be.
Will Porzingis return in time to help the Celtics battle in the NBA Finals? Here's the latest on his right soleus strain.
Over the last week all signs have been pointing to Porzingis being ready to go for tip-off on Thursday for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. He confirmed this to be the case while speaking to reporters on Wednesday, stating plainly that he plans to play.
As the Celtics have made abundantly clear over the last four weeks, they can win without Porzingis. But to reach the mountaintop and cement themselves in NBA history, they will take all the help they can get. A possible return at full health would be a game-changer against the Mavericks.
UPDATE, June 5, 4:40 p.m. ET: The Celtics released their injury report for Game 1 of the Finals, and Porzingis is not listed. That means he's going to suit up.
While the Celtics, by and large, match up well with the Mavericks, Porzingis would alter both ends of the court drastically. His ability to score on smaller defenders would severely limit the effectiveness of the switch-everything defense the Mavs have employed so successfully this playoffs. It's one thing when Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving is switched onto Rudy Gobert, who for all his value does not punish defenders in the post. But when they end up on Porzingis, who averaged 1.09 points per possession on post-up attempts (ninth in the NBA)? It means an easy bucket for Boston more often than not, and easy buckets are not supposed to happen in the NBA Finals.
If the Mavs don't switch, then Porzingis needs to space the floor in order to ensure Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II don't live in the paint. Dallas's pair of big men have been excellent locking down rim attempts in the postseason, which is especially crucial given Irving and Doncic's energy can wane on that end. Keeping Porzingis out beyond the three-point line means head coach Jason Kidd has to choose between guarding the 7-foot-3 center with one of Gafford/Lively, taking away easy chances to contest layups, or put someone smaller out there and start with a mismatch on Porzingis.
Defensively the Celtics may be challenged to play to Porzingis's strengths. He's best in drop coverage, and drop coverage is tough to play against shot-makers like the Mavs boast. Al Horford is a better switching defender and may end up playing big minutes as he did throughout the opening weeks of the playoffs. But Porzingis did average 1.9 blocks per game. He is a great rim protector whose skills are always useful, even if they may not be exactly optimal in this series.
As noted in a previous article about this very topic, Porinzigs' injury history is concerning and why the Celtics are taking it so slow.
His most serious injury came in February 2018, when Porzingis tore his ACL while playing for the New York Knicks. He missed the rest of the 2017-'18 season and the entirety of the 2018-'19 season in recovery. Since then, Porzingis has accumulated all sorts of bumps, brusies, and strains that have forced him to miss considerable time. He missed 39 games in 2020-'21, 31 games in 2021-'22, and 17 games in 2022-'23.
This past season, Porzingis missed 28 regular season games as he dealt with a variety of small injuries, the most severe of which was a calf strain that forced him to sit out a handful of contests. After suffering his right soleus strain, Porzingis has now missed 10 games.
