The Astros Benefit From the Rainout Just as Much as the Phillies

The immediate takeaway from last night’s rainout is that the postponement benefits the Phillies, who get an extra day of rest for their pitching staff, which isn’t as deep as that of the Astros.

Ranger Suárez and Aaron Nola are still scheduled to pitch tonight and tomorrow night, as was the plan before, but now, because the games were pushed back a day, they both end up pitching a game earlier in the World Series. Now, Philadelphia’s short start/bullpen game—with either Noah Syndergaard or Kyle Gibson getting the ball, depending on if Syndergaard is needed in relief before then—will come on Friday, in Game 5. This, of course, could backfire if both Suárez and Nola lose, putting the Phillies on the brink of elimination with their fourth, or possibly their fifth, best starter on the mound. However, it’s undoubtedly better to have Suárez and Nola pitch as soon as they are available, because that gives them their best chance to win these next two games and possibly pull ahead 3–1 in the series.

The second thing to know about the rainout is that it also benefits Houston’s starting pitching plan, for the opposite reason. Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier are still going to pitch Game 3 and Game 4, respectively, with Justin Verlander starting in Friday’s Game 5. The idea here is that all three of the starters pitching on an extra day of rest is more beneficial for the Astros than having Verlander start Game 4 on four days’ rest.

It’s true that four days’ rest is the norm for most MLB starting pitchers. But the Astros were one of a few teams this year that went with a six-man rotation instead of the typical five-man staff. Here, I’ll turn to what Tom Verducci wrote about Verlander in his column previewing the World Series:

Yes, he is your de facto ace. But I’d rather have him on an extra day of rest for Game 6 than on four days in Game 5, which is when he’s lined up to pitch for the second time after going in Game 1.

One of the reasons why Houston’s pitching is so good this late in the year is that it used a six-man rotation for much of the season. (Philadelphia’s work-around was to stash Wheeler on the IL for a few weeks.) Coming off Tommy John surgery, Verlander thrived in that environment. He has made only five of his 30 starts on four days of rest, none since Aug. 28.

He has pitched great on the fifth day (0.90 ERA). He certainly can bounce back for Game 5, but given the chance to keep him on his extra-day schedule I would do it.

Following the postponement, Verducci’s logic now applies for Game 4 and Game 5. Because Verlander has been much more effective on five days of rest this season, and the Astros are more than capable of covering the next two games with McCullers and Javier, holding Verlander to pitch Thursday is a no-brainer.

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1. THE OPENER

“No one in this series has shown a more impressive ability to work the count than Phillies rookie shortstop Bryson Stott. He pinch-hit to lead off the eighth inning of Game 2 and started by falling behind 0-2—which he then worked into a 12-pitch walk. He fouled off six pitches (five in a row) to stay alive.”

That’s how Emma Baccellieri begins one of the sections in her notes column from last night. She leads the piece with some info about the rainout, and there are plenty of other interesting nuggets in there as well.

Resetting the World Series Stage After Rainout Postpones Game 3 by Emma Baccellieri

2. ICYMI

Let’s get you caught up on some of our recent stories.

Homers, Handshakes and Hoskins: The Long Road to the World Series by Emma Baccellieri
He is the longest-tenured hitter in this scary-good Phillies lineup, a symbol of just how far the organization has come.

Philadelphia: Welcome Home, Chas McCormick. We Hope You Lose. by Stephanie Apstein
The 27-year-old from outside of Philly is playing in the World Series against his favorite team, with many of his loved ones rooting against him.

How Alex Bregman Found His Footing and Started Raking Again by Stephanie Apstein
Six months ago, he was afraid to play baseball. Three months ago, he wasn’t sure he would ever hit again. Now, he’s back in All-Star form.

Three World Series Questions for the Next Three Games by Matt Martell
Bryce Harper, the Phillies’ bullpen and Jose Altuve are all x-factors as the series heads to Philly.

3. WORTH NOTING from Matt Martell

As Stephanie Apstein mentioned in this section of yesterday’s newsletter, Phillies manager Rob Thomson has been using his bullpen more aggressively this postseason, and even more so in the World Series. She also noted that this is especially true in the case of lefthander José Alvarado, who is almost definitely going to be pitching in the first high leverage situation against the two lefties in the Houston lineup, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker.

That certainly is the right strategy, even if it ultimately doesn’t work. And, there’s a fairly decent chance that it might not pan out for Philly. Here’s why: Alvarez and Tucker are still dangerous against lefthanders. Alvarez ranked first in the majors among all left-handed batters with a .586 slugging percentage vs. southpaws; Tucker’s .456 slugging was the seventh-highest mark. According to Statcast, their expected slugging percentages—which is based on their quality of contact—against lefties is even better: Alvarez (.650 xSLG) once again ranks first for left-on-left matchups, while Tucker (.465 xSLG) is tied with Anthony Rizzo for fourth.

4. W2W4 from Nick Selbe

What’s that about it always being sunny in Philadelphia? Rain robbed us of Game 3 on Monday night, pushing the rest of the World Series back a day. While the Astros will stick with original starter Lance McCullers Jr., the Phillies will instead start Ranger Suárez in the place of Noah Syndergaard. Suárez was shaky in his first postseason start against the Braves, walking five batters in 3 ⅓ innings with just one run allowed. He was much better against the Padres in the NLDS, allowing only two base runners and one run in five innings.

5. THE CLOSER from Emma Baccellieri

Disappointing as a rainout is, I think MLB deserves some credit for how it handled yesterday. The league could have easily waffled or spent time in a delay. Instead, it made the call to postpone about an hour before gametime—still a bummer, of course, and after the ballpark gates had opened, but it was before fans needed to spend any time waiting around in the rain. There was no back-and-forth or confusion. (Like, say, we saw in New York earlier this postseason.) It was just a relatively quick, decisive action that gave both teams and fans an opportunity to restructure their night before too much time had been lost. Another thing to note: the fans who paid for parking last night can show their receipt at the lot so they don’t have to pay twice. (And while, yes, it would have been great if they could have simply moved the start time up a few hours to accommodate the forecast—that’s never going to happen with broadcast needs).

That’s all from us today. We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow. In the meantime, share this newsletter with your friends and family, and tell them to sign up at SI.com/newsletters. If you have any questions or comments, shoot us an email at [email protected].