As part of its 2022–23 men’s basketball preseason coverage, Sports Illustrated is rolling out previews for each of the top 10 conferences. Last up is the SEC.
Last season looked poised to be a breakout year for the SEC, long regarded as a notch below the truly elite college basketball conferences. Four member schools made up the NCAA tournament’s top-16 seeds and the SEC cracked the top three on KenPom’s conference rankings for the first time in a decade, achievements soured by dreadful performances in March Madness. Kentucky, Alabama, and LSU all suffered embarrassing first-round defeats and Arkansas was the only SEC squad to advance into the second weekend.
With eight of the top 25 classes in this year’s recruiting cycle and four top-15 teams in the inaugural AP Poll, however, the conference is still flush with talent and should enjoy an excellent opportunity to redeem itself come March.
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SI’s picks for …
Conference Player of the Year: Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky
Newcomer of the Year: Isiaih Mosley, Missouri
Dark-Horse Team to Watch: Texas A&M
First-team all-conference:
-Nick Smith Jr., Arkansas
-Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky
-Santiago Vescovi, Tennessee
-Colin Castleton, Florida
-Isiaih Mosley, Missouri / Jahvon Quinerly, Alabama
SI’s predicted order of finish:
1. Kentucky
History will remember Kentucky’s 2021–22 team as the first giant felled by Saint Peter’s mighty slingshot, a tough break following one of the Wildcats’ more dominant regular seasons in recent memory. Kentucky finished last season sixth in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency rankings despite losing to the Peacocks, its best output in nearly half a decade, and now returns a talented roster dreaming of Virginia-esque postseason redemption. It all starts in the paint with reigning Wooden Award winner Oscar Tshiebwe, who managed one of the highest effective field goal percentages in the country last season without attempting a three and is the nation’s best rebounder. Calipari’s dump-it-down-low formula should find similar success, especially with the spacing provided by CJ Fredrick, a career 46% three-point shooter at Iowa, and an explosive tandem of five-star freshmen in Chris Livingston and Cason Wallace.
Postseason Projection: Title Contender
2. Arkansas
Arkansas slowly nears the vaunted plateau reached by Nolan Richardson’s “40 Minutes of Hell” teams 30 years ago, this time behind a very different but equally deliberate approach on defense. Fourth-year coach Eric Musselman’s gritty approach quickly took root in Fayetteville as the Razorbacks, boosted by a pair of top-10 defenses, have now made consecutive Elite Eight appearances. The Hogs lost stars JD Notae and Jaylin Williams to the NBA draft this offseason, for which Musselman and his staff concocted a handy remedy: the nation’s second-ranked recruiting class. Nick Smith Jr., one of three five-star freshmen coming to the Ozarks this year, brings elite athleticism, effortless three-point range and a reputation as the best scorer in his class. Bouncy small forward and disruptive defender Jordan Walsh, along with heady guard Anthony Black, round out the trio. This influx of elite talent projects to raise the profile of Arkansas’s offense, transforming it from a defensive headache into an all-around juggernaut.
Postseason Projection: Title Contender
3. Tennessee
Departed from Knoxville are scoring leader Kennedy Chandler and Perry Ellis–reincarnate John Fulkerson, who finished his sixth(!) and final season in 2022, but otherwise the Vols return a healthy glut of production that should see them again challenge atop the SEC. Tennessee, remarkably, is expected to improve upon its nationally-acclaimed defense from last season as it currently ranks second in KenPom’s preseason defensive efficiency. Forward Josiah-Jordan James finished top 25 in the conference for defensive rebounding percentage, block percentage and steal percentage, and sophomore Zakai Zeigler ranked 11th nationally in steal percentage. Offensively, senior Santiago Vescovi stands out as the team’s second leading scorer and one of the most efficient players in the conference—his KenPom offensive rating of 117.2 was the highest among SEC guards last season—while Indiana State transfer Tyreke Key and five-star freshman Julian Phillips should offer a high-volume scoring punch.
Postseason Projection: Second Weekend Upside
4. Alabama
Most prognosticators remain in wait-and-see mode on Alabama heading into coach Nate Oats’s fifth year. The NBA raided the Crimson Tide’s star-studded roster this offseason, sniping hyper-efficient wing Keon Ellis, savvy freshman point guard JD Davison, and ironman Jaden Shackelford. However, Oats has hounded the transfer portal and the recruiting trail to offset these heavy losses—of Alabama’s top 10 projected contributors, per T-Rank, seven are either transfers or freshmen. Sharpshooting additions Dominick Welch (St. Bonaventure) and Mark Sears (Ohio), along with McDonald’s All-American Brandon Miller, project to have immediate impacts, while last year’s leading scorer Jahvon Quinerly should enjoy an even more dominant offensive role.
Postseason Projection: Second Weekend Upside
5. Auburn
Even a tandem of future first-round draft picks couldn’t push the Tigers past the NCAA tournament’s first weekend, bowing out to Miami in blowout fashion. And as the Auburn Arena staff retrain the spotlights away from Jabari Smith Jr., expectations for 2022–23 will fall squarely on the shoulders of the Tigers’ backcourt: K.D. Johnson and Wendell Green Jr.. T-Rank projects the diminutive duo to score nearly 30 points per game combined, and their pesky, handsy defending catalyzed Auburn’s top-10 defense last season. Auburn has sparked a remarkable revival under Bruce Pearl and this senior-laden squad should threaten for the program’s second Sweet 16 appearance in 20 years.
Postseason Projection: Second Weekend Upside
6. Florida
Years of #FireMikeWhite hashtags and a disappointing dip into the NIT last season preceded the Gators’ coaching change, poaching Todd Golden from San Francisco after White left for Georgia. Golden, the second-youngest Power 5 coach armed with a fitting focus on analytics, brings Silicon Valley moneyball and plenty of transfers to the Swamp. Kyle Lofton, a four-year starter at St. Bonaventure, will take over Tyree Appleby’s spot at point guard, while Will Richard (Belmont) and Trey Bonham (VMI) should contend for starting positions. Colin Castleton’s return will give the Gators a proven, go-to scorer, and they should make a comfortable return to March Madness.
Postseason Projection: Safe to Dance
7. Texas A&M
The Aggies likely felt they were safe to dance last season after surging to the SEC tournament final, but the committee’s most controversial snub ultimately fell into the NIT. There should be no need for Buzz Williams’s teary-eyed condemnations in 2023, however, as four of A&M’s top-five scoring options are back in College Station. Deadeye perimeter shooter Tyrece Radford and dominant interior presence Henry Coleman III excelled in their first seasons with the Aggies and will be tasked with carrying the A&M offense. Secondary options Wade Taylor IV and Andre Gordon will add strong scoring depth to an experienced Aggies team.
Postseason Projection: Safe to Dance
8. LSU
Will Wade’s scandal-ridden exit has left the LSU roster almost unrecognizable. Of the nine leading scorers on last season’s team, only Mwani Wilkinson (4.0 ppg) returns to Baton Rouge this November. Matt McMahon, who most recently led Murray State to a 21-game win streak, took the Tigers program reins this March and brought a number of Racers along to join his new-look ball club. Former Murray State stars KJ Williams and Justice Hill, along with Illinois transfer Adam Miller, should stand out on an LSU team searching for its fourth-straight tournament bid.
Postseason Projection: On the Bubble
9. Mississippi State
Mississippi State also welcomes in a new coach, but Chris Jans will instead rely on the Bulldogs’ existing talent for his first season in Starkville. MSU’s top three projected scorers, per T-Rank, are all returning players, headlined by double-double machine Tolu Smith who will hope for better injury luck this season. However, the Bulldogs lost leading scorer Iverson Molinar and employed a dubious attempt at improving their dismal 29.5% three-point clip, hoping Southeast Missouri State transfer Eric Reed Jr.’s career 39.9% translates to the SEC. It all hints at a consecutive trip to the NIT in 2023.
Postseason Projection: NIT Bound
10. Missouri
Missouri heads into the 2022–23 season with surprising local flair for a team virtually reconstructed this offseason. First-year coach Dennis Gates snagged one of the most coveted transfer prospects in Isiaih Mosley, a Columbia native who finished inside the top five of the MVC for both usage rate and true shooting percentage. Gates has also mined the fertile Midwest junior college recruiting grounds, snagging juco player of the year Sean East II and interior presence Mohamed Diarra. Along with returning center Kobe Brown, Missouri should be greatly improved compared to its 12–21 record last season.
Postseason Projection: NIT Bound
11. Ole Miss
One bright spot in an ugly last season for Ole Miss was the emergence of freshman Daeshun Ruffin at point guard. The former McDonald’s All-American had nearly four assists and 12 points per game in his final 11 contests before sustaining an ACL injury in February, but a remarkably quick recovery saw Ruffin announce he’ll be ready to lead the Rebels on opening night. Sharpshooting wings Jaemyn Brakefield and Matthew Murrell should help Ruffin unstick Ole Miss from the SEC basement and lead it toward NIT contention.
Postseason Projection: NIT Bound
12. Georgia
Mike White boldly stepped across one of the fiercest rivalries in college sports, joining up with Georgia after seven seasons at Florida. A swanky new stadium and a recent NBA lottery pick have done little to assuage the basketball blues in Athens, reaching a 6–26 lowpoint amid two decades of NCAA tournament futility. There’s nowhere to go but up for White in Year 1, and the addition of Mardrez McBride, a career 40% three-point shooter, along with returning talent should see Georgia achieve respectability.
Postseason Projection: Better Luck Next Year
13. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt clinched its first winning record since 2016–17 last season behind a remarkable reliance on Scotty Pippen Jr.—he finished seventh nationally with a 34.6% usage rate. With Pippen’s departure to the NBA, however, coach Jerry Stackhouse’s offense will need a significant redesign. Jordan Wright, a 6’6″ wing, and Myles Stute, one of the nation’s 100 most efficient players last season, are poised to take the biggest steps forward, but a number of role players will need to improve for Vandy to continue its positive trajectory.
Postseason Projection: Better Luck Next Year
14. South Carolina
Initially the centerpiece of North Carolina’s 2023 recruiting class, Gregory “GG” Jackson II announced his shocking flip to regional rival South Carolina and reclassification to 2022 fewer than four months before the season. Johnson and former Chattanooga coach Lamont Paris will be joined by some intriguing Power 5 transfers, including former four-star recruit and Ohio State guard Meechie Johnson and ex-Illinois center Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk. Paris also grabbed more proven mid-major talents in Hayden Brown (The Citadel) and Ebrima Dibba (College of Charleston). The ceiling is high in Columbia, but it’s tough to bank on a team with little experience at the Power 5 level.
Postseason Projection: Better Luck Next Year
