Public Bettors Heavily Backing Mavericks to Win NBA Finals Over Celtics

June 3, 2024 Jimm Sallivan

Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks are underdogs in the 2024 NBA Finals, and public bettors… are loving it?

Dallas is around +175 to +180 (depending on the sportsbook) to win the Finals (an implied probability of 36.36 percent), yet more than 80 percent of the bets at BetMGM are on the Mavs to win the series against the Boston Celtics.

NBA Final series odds at #BetMGM

▪️ Celtics -225
▪️ Mavericks +180

85% of bets are on @dallasmavs to win. pic.twitter.com/TRuwPRvprs

— John Ewing (@johnewing) June 3, 2024

It’s shocking to see bettors heavily backing Dallas since Boston has dominated the playoffs going 12-2 and finished the regular season with the best record and net rating in the NBA. Maybe it’s the plus money that has bettors intrigued, but can Dallas really pull off the win in the Finals?

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Earlier on Monday, yours truly broke down this NBA Finals matchup with the latest odds, players to watch and keys to winning the series.

I still believe that Boston — with a healthy Kristaps Porzingis — is the better team and will go on to win the title.

However, Dallas has certainly made a compelling argument since the last 20 games of the regular season. Not only did the Mavs finish those 20 games 16-4 with the best defensive rating in the NBA, but they also won three straight playoff series as a road team and underdog.

That’s extremely impressive, and it could be what is causing this massive influx of public bets on the Mavs to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

Doncic and Kyrie Irving will have their hands full with a tough defense that features Jrue Holiday, Derrick White and Jaylen Brown, but if the Mavs’ stars outplay Brown and Jayson Tatum, it could be enough to win this series.

Still, taking note of where the public’s money is can be a helpful strategy when deciding where to bet on a series.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey’s betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

6 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Best NBA Betting Odds and Trends for Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Finals Game 1

Game 1 of the NBA Finals is upon us, and there's plenty to get to know before placing your wagers.

If you're looking for my best bets or the breakdown of Game 1 between the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics, you can find them here on SI Betting!

Before you place any bets on Game 1, here's a look at the latest odds and some trends to know for Thursday night's series opener.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Moneyline

Total

Boston Celtics as Home Favorites

There are several key trends to know ahead of Game 1, starting with Boston's record as a home favorite. The C's are 26-21-2 against the spread as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of 14.4 points per game.

Boston also has the best against the spread record in the first half of games this season (63-32-1).

Dallas Mavericks on the Road

The Mavericks are an NBA-best 34-16 against the spread on the road, but we can break that down even further.

As a road underdog, Dallas is 14-11 against the spread, which isn't as great, but it thrived as a road favorite, going 20-5 ATS. Unfortunately, the Mavs are road dogs in Game 1.

Game 1 Favorites Dominate Since 2005

Since 2005 Game 1 favorites are an insane 16-3 against the spread, and going back the past 30 years, they are 21-9 against the spread.

Boston is favored by 6.5 points in Game 1, and it has covered in two of the three opening games of its playoff series.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

7 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Cavaliers-Celtics Odds Paint Grim Picture for Cleveland in NBA playoffs

If the Cleveland Cavaliers were looking for bulletin board material heading into their Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Celtics, all they’d have to do is look at the odds.

Recent NBA betting scandals notwithstanding, it's clear oddsmakers don't think the Cavs stand any chance against Boston. In fact, sportsbooks are giving the Cavs a better chance of getting swept than upsetting the top-ranked Celtics, and it’s really not even close.

The Celtics are -3000 to win the series at FanDuel Sportsbook and -1200 to win at DraftKings. That means those sportsbooks are giving the Celtics an implied probability to win the series of 96.8% and 92.3% respectively.

Even more telling, the Celtics are +140 at FanDuel and +170 at DraftKings to win the series 4-0. Those are the shortest odds of any correct series score. The Celtics winning 4-1 has the second shortest odds at +170 and +190, respectively.

For context, even after winning Game 1, the Knicks are only -440 at FanDuel to win their Eastern Conference semifinal series.

This is not exactly surprising.

The Celtics have been the betting favorites to win the NBA championship most of the season and remain so today. They are +100 to win the title at FanDuel and +115 at DraftKings.

The Cavs are +10000 and +8000 at those books, respectively, the longest odds of any playoff team.

All of this paints a grim picture for the Cavs, even more so when you consider the Celtics are expected to be without their third-leading scorer from the regular season, Kristaps Porzingis, who is dealing with a calf injury and is not expected to play the entirety of the series.

The Cavs are at full strength but struggled to beat a young Orlando Magic team in the first round of the playoffs. The series went seven games and the Magic had the Cavs on the ropes in the first half of Game 7 before Donovan Mitchell took over and willed Cleveland into the second round.

Led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the Celtics easily dispatched the Miami Heat in five games in the first round, though the Heat were without Jimmy Butler.

It’s clear oddsmakers believe in the duo of Tatum and Brown, not only against the Cavs, but against anyone in the league. The Cavs could look at that as an insult and use it as motivation. It won’t matter to oddsmakers though. It seems their belief is near certainty, at least in this round.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

8 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Biggest Comeback in NBA Finals History: A Full Breakdown

The Dallas Mavericks found themselves in an early hole Thursday night in Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals.

Before they could get comfortable at TD Garden, the Boston Celtics opened up a 17-point lead after 12 minutes—the biggest lead for any team in the first quarter of a Game 1 in NBA Finals history. Boston continued to pile on and led by as many as 29 points in the second quarter before Dallas began chipping away.

The Mavericks trimmed the deficit to eight points in the third quarter but weren't able to fully complete the comeback, losing 107–89. If they did, it would've made NBA history.

The largest comeback in a single NBA playoff games is 31 points, set in 2019 when the Los Angeles Clippers erased a 31-point deficit to win Game 2 of their first-round playoff series against the Golden State Warriors. The Clippers outscored Golden State 85–58 in the second half to win that game.

But as far as the NBA Finals goes, the biggest comeback was when the Celtics battled back from 24 points down to beat the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 4 of the 2008 Finals.

DATE	MATCHUP	DEFICIT	FINAL SCORE
June 12, 2008	Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers	Lakers led by 24 points	Celtics 97, Lakers 91

The Celtics entered Game 4 of the 2008 NBA Finals holding a 2–1 series lead. They swept the first two games of the series at TD Banknorth Garden and lost 87–81 in an ugly defensive battle in Game 3 at then-Staples Center.

Los Angeles came out hot in the first quarter of Game 4, shooting 64.7% from the field and taking a 35–14 lead after 12 minutes while the Celtics shot just 27.3% (6 of 22). The Lakers built it up to a 24-point lead in the second quarter when Sasha Vujacic drained a three-pointer off a pass from Kobe Bryant to make it 45–21.

The score remained 45–21 for nearly two minutes of game time, as the teams exchanged misses, until Celtics forward Kevin Garnet knocked down a mid-range jumper. And the Celtics' comeback began.

Boston still trailed the Lakers by 18 points at halftime but came out firing in the third quarter, outscoring Los Angeles 31–15. They tied the game at 73 with 10:13 remaining in the fourth quarter, and took their first lead of the game at 84–83 with 4:07 remaining. From there, they closed out on a 13–8 run to win 97–91 and take a 3–1 series lead.

The Lakers led for 40:30 of game time. They couldn't miss in the first half but shot just 33.3% from the field in the final two quarters, missing all eight attempts from downtown. Bryant and Pau Gasol logged a plus/minus of -24 in the second half.

Garnet tallied a double-double in 37 minutes, scoring 16 points and grabbing 11 rebounds. But it was James Posey providing the spark off the bench, logging 18 points on 5-of-10 shooting and nailing four three-pointers.

Facing a 24-point deficit in the NBA Finals? As Garnett would go on to say after Boston claimed Game 6 and were crowned champions, anything is possible.

US Sports News

Public Bettors Heavily Backing Mavericks to Win NBA Finals Over Celtics

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Jimm Sallivan