Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks are underdogs in the 2024 NBA Finals, and public bettors… are loving it?
Dallas is around +175 to +180 (depending on the sportsbook) to win the Finals (an implied probability of 36.36 percent), yet more than 80 percent of the bets at BetMGM are on the Mavs to win the series against the Boston Celtics.
It’s shocking to see bettors heavily backing Dallas since Boston has dominated the playoffs going 12-2 and finished the regular season with the best record and net rating in the NBA. Maybe it’s the plus money that has bettors intrigued, but can Dallas really pull off the win in the Finals?
Earlier on Monday, yours truly broke down this NBA Finals matchup with the latest odds, players to watch and keys to winning the series.
I still believe that Boston — with a healthy Kristaps Porzingis — is the better team and will go on to win the title.
However, Dallas has certainly made a compelling argument since the last 20 games of the regular season. Not only did the Mavs finish those 20 games 16-4 with the best defensive rating in the NBA, but they also won three straight playoff series as a road team and underdog.
That’s extremely impressive, and it could be what is causing this massive influx of public bets on the Mavs to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Doncic and Kyrie Irving will have their hands full with a tough defense that features Jrue Holiday, Derrick White and Jaylen Brown, but if the Mavs’ stars outplay Brown and Jayson Tatum, it could be enough to win this series.
Still, taking note of where the public’s money is can be a helpful strategy when deciding where to bet on a series.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When Dallas Mavericks coach Jason Kidd said last week that Jaylen Brown was the Boston Celtics’ “best player,” it was widely believed that Kidd was playing mind games (an allegation Kidd denied) rather than expressing an earnest opinion about Boston’s hierarchy. But he may have been right.
Kidd’s initial assertion seemed outlandish because Jayson Tatum undoubtedly has a better résumé than Brown. (Tatum was named First-Team All-NBA in each of the past three seasons, while Brown has just one Second-Team selection to his name.) Brown is a star, but Tatum is a superstar. In the Finals, though, it’s Brown who has shone brightest.
Tatum struggled offensively in the first two games of the series, averaging 17 points per game on 31.6% shooting (although he contributed in other ways). And while Tatum was better in Game 3 (31 points on 11-of-26 shooting), he was quiet again in the fourth quarter as the Mavs mounted a ferocious comeback, making just one of his five field-goal attempts.
That’s when Brown stepped up.
The fourth quarter very nearly turned into a nightmare for the Celtics. Boston was able to stretch its lead to 21 points in the opening minutes but saw that lead evaporate as the Mavs reeled off a 22–2 run to cut the deficit to one. The only Boston basket scored during Dallas’s run—which lasted more than seven minutes—was by Brown. He played a huge role in helping stop the skid, scoring on a putback layup with 3:08 to play that made it 95–92 in favor of the Celtics and hitting a contested jumper with 1:01 to play that made it 102–98. He scored nine of Boston’s 21 points in the final quarter as the Celtics held on to win, 106–99.
“I mean, how can I explain Jaylen?” Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said. “The guy just has a growth mindset. He just wants to get better. He yearns to get better. He’s not afraid to face his weaknesses on the court. So when you have that type of mindset, you’re just going to be able to take on every situation that the game brings you. He puts himself in every single situation that he sees in a game. He uses six, seven, eight coaches a day, and every situation on both ends of the floor, he puts himself in that.
“And that’s how you have to grow, is to become vulnerable and on the things that make you uncomfortable, and he does that.”
Brown’s biggest play of the night, though, may have been the foul he drew on Luka Doncic with 4:12 to play. Brown attacked Doncic in transition and gave Doncic no choice but to commit a foul, causing him to foul out. Doncic’s absence changed the entire shape of the game. Once Doncic was forced to leave the floor, Dallas’s comeback came to a screeching halt. Kyrie Irving did his best to carry the Mavs, but Doncic’s absence allowed Boston's defense to zero in on Irving.
Doncic’s poor performance was the other main takeaway from Game 3. He scored 27 points, but his uninspired defense left him vulnerable to foul calls, eventually leading to his disqualification from the game. His constant complaints to the referees probably didn’t help flip any borderline calls in his favor, either.
Doncic has never been a great defender but that’s been especially problematic against a Boston team whose scoring depth makes hiding Doncic on defense impossible. And he’s clearly struggling with injuries that hinder his mobility, making him even more of a defensive liability. Doncic certainly looks like he could use a rest, and now that the Mavs have fallen behind 3–0 in the series, it appears he’ll be getting one very soon.
McIlroy is looking for his first major victory in a decade. / Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports
… things I saw last night:
5. The couple that got married in the stands during a Giants game. 4. Giancarlo Stanton’s 449-foot shot for his 17th home run of the season. Stanton, Juan Soto (17) and Aaron Judge (25) have combined for 59 homers this season, which is more than five teams have on the year. 3. Christian Pulisic’s free-kick goal vs. Brazil. 2. Angel Reese’s big game against the league-leading Sun. She had a career-high 20 points and 10 rebounds as she notched her fourth straight double double. 1. Jaylen Brown’s ferocious dunk at the end of the third quarter.
Following the Boston Celtics’ 106-99 Game 3 win over the Dallas Mavericks to take a commanding 3-0 series lead in the NBA Finals, the Celtics media thought they would have a little fun with Mavericks star Luka Doncic.
NBA fans and analysts alike were well-aware of Doncic’s foul-baiting antics and incessant complaints throughout the game, and one Celtics media member decided enough was enough.
Doncic finished with 27 points on 11-of-27 shooting, but he fouled out with roughly four minutes left in the fourth quarter. NBC Sports Boston took the latter of those statistics and turned it into a savage graphic on X (formerly known as Twitter) paired with a screenshot of Doncic at the postgame presser.
— Celtics on NBC Sports Boston (@NBCSCeltics) June 13, 2024
Doncic appeared to tut at the officiating after the game, as his fifth and sixth fouls were arguably very close calls. One game away from suffering a Finals sweep, the Mavericks will host the Celtics for Game 4 on Friday night.
Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics have a 2-0 series lead over the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals, and that puts them in some great company all time.
There have been 36 teams that have led 2-0 in the NBA Finals, and they are 31-5 straight up in the series all time. Not only that, but Boston as a franchise has a 43-1 record when leading 2-0 in a playoff series, only losing in the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals.
The C's -- the finals favorite for most of the 2023-24 season -- are now -800 at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the title this season heading into Game 3 in Dallas on Wednesday night.
Based on these odds, the Celtics have an implied probability of 88.89 percent to win the title this season. Dallas -- at +550 -- has just a 15.38 percent chance based on implied probability.
Even though Boston is going on the road in Game 3, I wouldn't be worried as a Boston bettor.
The C's are a perfect 6-0 straight up on the road in the playoffs, and Dallas is just 25-24 against the spread at home in the 2023-24 season.
Betting strictly on a historic trend isn't the best way to wager on a series, but this is a great sign for bettors that are holding a Celtics future. In fact, there is one bettor that wagered $215,000 on the Celtics to win the series prior to the start of the NBA Finals.
Boston is set as a slight underdog heading into Game 3 despite being 14-2 straight up this postseason.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
