Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks are underdogs in the 2024 NBA Finals, and public bettors… are loving it?
Dallas is around +175 to +180 (depending on the sportsbook) to win the Finals (an implied probability of 36.36 percent), yet more than 80 percent of the bets at BetMGM are on the Mavs to win the series against the Boston Celtics.
It’s shocking to see bettors heavily backing Dallas since Boston has dominated the playoffs going 12-2 and finished the regular season with the best record and net rating in the NBA. Maybe it’s the plus money that has bettors intrigued, but can Dallas really pull off the win in the Finals?
Earlier on Monday, yours truly broke down this NBA Finals matchup with the latest odds, players to watch and keys to winning the series.
I still believe that Boston — with a healthy Kristaps Porzingis — is the better team and will go on to win the title.
However, Dallas has certainly made a compelling argument since the last 20 games of the regular season. Not only did the Mavs finish those 20 games 16-4 with the best defensive rating in the NBA, but they also won three straight playoff series as a road team and underdog.
That’s extremely impressive, and it could be what is causing this massive influx of public bets on the Mavs to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Doncic and Kyrie Irving will have their hands full with a tough defense that features Jrue Holiday, Derrick White and Jaylen Brown, but if the Mavs’ stars outplay Brown and Jayson Tatum, it could be enough to win this series.
Still, taking note of where the public’s money is can be a helpful strategy when deciding where to bet on a series.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Game 1 of the NBA Finals was all Boston, as the Boston Celtics opened up the biggest first-quarter lead in a Game 1 in NBA history on Thursday night and cruised to a 107-89 win to take a 1-0 series lead.
Boston is now -400 to win the NBA Finals – an implied probability of 80 percent – and it is heavily favored again in Game 2 to take a 2-0 series lead.
Dallas’ role players struggled in Game 1, as PJ Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Daniel Gafford, Maxi Kleber, and Dereck Lively II gave the team very little on offense. Kyrie Irving (12 points) also shot terribly from the field, going 6-for-19.
What’s most impressive about Boston’s Game 1 win was that Jayson Tatum (6-for-16 shooting, six turnovers) did not play well by his standards, and the C’s still cruised to a win.
Jaylen Brown (22 points on 7-of-12 shooting), and Kristaps Porzingis (20 points on 8-of-13 shooting) took over the game in the first half, especially Porzingis in the first quarter.
Unless Dallas’ role players – and Irving – step up in Game 2, there’s a good chance Boston leads this series 2-0 before it shifts back to Dallas.
Here’s a look at the latest odds, key players to watch and my best bet for Game 2 of the NBA Finals:
Kyrie Irving: There are no two ways around it, Kyrie Irving was awful in Game 1 on Thursday night, shooting just 6-for-19 from the field and 0-for-5 from beyond the arc, finishing with 12 points. Dallas’ offense mustered just 89 points – despite 30 from Luka Doncic – and Irving is the clear player that needs to step up in that category for the Mavs to keep up with this vaunted Boston attack.
Boston Celtics
Kristaps Porzingis: How important was Kristaps Porzingis in Game 1? Well, he’s skyrocketed in the odds to win the NBA Finals MVP award. KP only played 21 minutes in Game 1, but his impact was undeniable. Boston was an impressive +13 in his minutes, and the big man finished with 20 points, six rebounds, and three blocks while shooting 8-for-13 from the field and 2-for-4 from beyond the arc. Could his role/minutes expand in Game 2?
Porzingis was the best player on the floor – especially in the first half – controlling the game on both ends with his size.
Dallas was unable to get lobs at the rim to Gafford and Lively II – rendering them nearly useless on the offensive end – and Porzingis hunted and dominated the smaller Dallas players in switches on his way to an impressive shooting night.
On the Dallas side, PJ Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Maxi Kleber, Irving, and Tim Hardaway Jr. went 1-for-11 from beyond the arc. Luka Doncic, whose teammates were shooting 57 percent from the field on his passes this postseason, had just one assist.
That’s not going to cut it for Dallas, especially when the Celtics shoot 16-for-42 (38.1 percent) from beyond the arc.
Boston seemed content playing Doncic straight up, and the rest of the Mavericks were unable to give the All-NBA guard much help.
When it comes to betting on Game 2, I’m focusing on the first half, a place where Boston has thrived this season.
The Celtics let things slip in the third quarter, allowing Dallas to cut the lead to just eight points, but it responded with a quick 8-0 run to push things back up to 16 before a Mavs timeout late in the third.
I want to avoid any letdown in the third quarter – or just a run where Dallas gets going – and take the C’s to cover the short first-half spread (Boston -3.5).
This season, Boston is a league-best 63-32-1 against the spread in the first half. Dallas is 49-50 ATS, which isn’t a bad mark, but it’s way behind the C’s.
Boston looked comfortable and focused from the jump on Thursday night, and it has so many different offensive options to punish the Dallas defense.
This may end up being a closer game than Game 1 by the end, but I love trusting the Celtics to start fast like they’ve done all season long.
Pick: Celtics 1H -3.5 (-110)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Neither team shot the ball particularly well in Game 2 of the 2024 NBA Finals, but it was the Boston Celtics who emerged victorious over the Dallas Mavericks, securing a 2–0 lead in the series following Sunday's 105–98 win.
Jrue Holiday led the charge offensively for the Celtics, proving particularly effective from in around the rim as he scored a team-high 26 points on 11 for 14 shooting. Jaylen Brown played prolific two-way ball once again, providing lockdown defense while also contributing his share on offense with 21 points.
Jayson Tatum's shooting woes continued, but as has often been the case during the postseason, Boston's depth was able to help overcome that. Tatum shot 6 for 22 from the field, but was an excellent facilitator as he racked up 12 assists and added nine rebounds.
Dallas didn't go down quietly though. The Mavs cut a 14-point deficit into just five with around one minute left, but an emphatic Derrick White block put a stopper on the comeback hopes and capped off the win for Boston.
Kristaps Porzingis, who made his return to the starting lineup on Sunday, exited during the fourth quarter after suffering an apparent leg injury. He remained in the game briefly before checking out for Al Horford and did not return. His status will be something to monitor going forward.
For the Mavericks, it often felt that if Luka Doncic wasn't scoring, the team's offense simply wasn't functioning. Doncic provided 32 of Dallas's 98 points, shooting 12 for 21 from the field despite not being at full strength. Although he registered a triple-double in just the second NBA Finals game of his career, he also had eight turnovers in the loss, struggling to take care of the ball against the stalwart Boston defense.
Apart from Doncic, the rest of the team shot 26 for 59 (44%), including a woeful 2 for 17 (11.7%) showing from three-point range. Kyrie Irving had another lackluster performance with 16 points and six assists, marking his second consecutive game without making a single three.
The series will shift to Dallas for Games 3 and 4, and the Mavericks will need to get the job done on Wednesday if they want to avoid the perilous 3–0 deficit, which no team has ever overcome in NBA history.
BOSTON – Jason Kidd made 10 All-Star teams during his NBA career, earning his place among the great playmakers with size, skill and, yes, smarts. Kidd saw the game better than most, still does. On Saturday, as Kidd’s media availability was wrapping up, he was asked a a boilerplate question about Jaylen Brown’s game.
“Well, Jaylen,” Kidd said, “is their best player.”
Boom, there’s your story. Kidd knew what he was doing with that answer. Of course he did. Few dynamics are more closely scrutinized than Brown and Jayson Tatum. Just last week, ESPN Zapruder-filmed a video of Tatum applauding Brown’s conference finals MVP win—not hard enough for their liking—to wonder if there was an issue. Brown is routinely measured against Tatum, two All-NBA wings, teammates, forever in competition. Kidd’s comment was less praise for Brown than a chance to toss a grenade into Boston’s locker room.
“J-Kidd, man,” said Celtics center Al Horford, laughing. “I see what he is doing.”
Indeed, everyone does. And why not? If there was anything learned from Boston’s 107–89 shellacking of the Mavericks in Game 1, it’s that in this series, Dallas is outgunned. Luka Doncic got 30 but he needed 26 shots to get there, while the Celtics’ ability to defend him straight up held Doncic to a single assist. Gone were the lobs, the corner threes that powered the Mavs through a rugged Western Conference. Instead, it was congested drives and contested jumpers while Dallas struggled to get anything past the 7’2” Kristaps Porzingis waiting for them at the rim.
“I thought we were too much one-on-one,” said Kidd. “We've got to move bodies. We've got to move the ball. Multiple guys have to touch the ball. We were just too stagnant, and that's not the way we play. We've got to be better.”
Kyrie Irving will be better because, for Irving, it couldn’t go much worse. Irving scored 12 points on Thursday, connecting on 31.6% of his shots and missing all five of his threes. Much was made of how the Boston crowd would respond to Irving on Thursday, and while there were the obligatory chants, all things considered the reaction was relatively tame. “I thought it would be louder,” Irving said. Many of Irving’s misses were off open looks and Dallas is confident if he gets the same looks in Game 2, those shots will go down.
“I mean it was our first time being together as a group in this Finals stage,” said Irving. “Experience is the best teacher at times when you don't know what to expect.”
Even if Irving is better, Dallas needs more. More from Dereck Lively II, the springy rookie who got off one shot in 18 minutes. More from Derrick Jones Jr., who finished 2-for-9 from the floor. More from Josh Green, who was 1-for-4. The Mavs committed 11 turnovers in Game 1, which led to 18 Celtics points.
“We've got to take care of the ball,” Kidd said. “We've got to make it easier for Ky and Luka. Being able to put those guys in different spots on the floor so there's a little bit stress-free so they can do what they do at a high level. We just didn't do that in Game 1.”
Kidd’s press conference tactic doesn’t appear to have had its desired effect. / Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Kidd created a firestorm with his lofty praise of Brown but inside Boston’s locker room, it isn’t going anywhere. For years the dynamic between the two has been scrutinized, and all it has done is make the bond between them stronger. They are very different people, Tatum and Brown, but they share the same goal. Six conference finals, two NBA Finals and all that matters now is that they don’t leave this one empty handed.
“This is a team sport, right?” Tatum said. “We understand that. We wouldn't be here if we didn't have JB on our team, and we can say that for a lot of guys. We have all played a part in getting to where we're at. We understand that people try to drive a wedge between us. I guess it's a smart thing to do or try to do. We've been in this position for many of years of guys trying to divide us and say that one of us should be traded or one is better than the other. So it's not our first time at the rodeo.”
Said Brown, “We've been just extremely focused on what our roles and our jobs are. We have all had to sacrifice. Jason [Kidd] has had to do that at the highest of levels and I respect him and tip his cap for it. Right now, at this point, it's whatever it takes to win and we can't let any outside interpretations try to get in between.”
Dallas wants Tatum to feel slighted, to overcompensate, try too hard to assert himself in Game 2. Not happening, Tatum says. Tatum wants to score but if the Mavs tilt its defense towards Tatum again, if they continue to load up, Tatum will keep the ball moving. He collected five assists in Game 1 and if more shots had fallen, he could have racked up several more.
“It's just about reading the game,” Tatum said. “Draw so much attention, you know, when I have the ball in my hands. It's about creating an advantage. We always talk about that, watching film, creating advantage, finding the mismatch that we want, and it might not always end up in the shot for you. Or if you set a screen and get a smaller guy on you, just having that mismatch and calling for the ball, right, it may draw other defenders to help, and we can pin in for somebody else to get a shot. Those things won't show up in the stats sheet, but it's part of our execution, and sometimes you have to make a sacrificial cut or things like that to generate good shoots.”
Even after years of success as teammates, after All-Stars and All-NBA teams, 50-win seasons and deep playoff runs, questions about Tatum and Brown’s relationship still linger. Only one thing will kill them off. On Sunday, Boston will look to move one win closer to doing so.