Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks are underdogs in the 2024 NBA Finals, and public bettors… are loving it?
Dallas is around +175 to +180 (depending on the sportsbook) to win the Finals (an implied probability of 36.36 percent), yet more than 80 percent of the bets at BetMGM are on the Mavs to win the series against the Boston Celtics.
It’s shocking to see bettors heavily backing Dallas since Boston has dominated the playoffs going 12-2 and finished the regular season with the best record and net rating in the NBA. Maybe it’s the plus money that has bettors intrigued, but can Dallas really pull off the win in the Finals?
Earlier on Monday, yours truly broke down this NBA Finals matchup with the latest odds, players to watch and keys to winning the series.
I still believe that Boston — with a healthy Kristaps Porzingis — is the better team and will go on to win the title.
However, Dallas has certainly made a compelling argument since the last 20 games of the regular season. Not only did the Mavs finish those 20 games 16-4 with the best defensive rating in the NBA, but they also won three straight playoff series as a road team and underdog.
That’s extremely impressive, and it could be what is causing this massive influx of public bets on the Mavs to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Doncic and Kyrie Irving will have their hands full with a tough defense that features Jrue Holiday, Derrick White and Jaylen Brown, but if the Mavs’ stars outplay Brown and Jayson Tatum, it could be enough to win this series.
Still, taking note of where the public’s money is can be a helpful strategy when deciding where to bet on a series.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Can the Dallas Mavericks avoid falling down 3-0 to the Boston Celtics in Game 3 of the NBA Finals?
Oddsmakers seem to think it’s possible, giving Dallas the edge in the odds entering Wednesday’s matchup, but Luka Doncic and company are going to have to play much better than they did in Boston to have a chance to win.
Boston got away with a poor shooting performance in Game 2, riding a huge game from Jrue Holiday to a win. Now, the C’s will put their perfect road record this postseason to the test.
There are three bets that I’m looking to place in Game 3, and Holiday is on the card for the third straight contest in these Finals.
Boston Celtics Moneyline (+110) vs. Dallas Mavericks
Boston is set as an underdog in this game, which is shocking to see in the 2023-24 season. This is just the second time in five months that Boston has been set as an underdog. The C’s also haven’t been shorter than a 6.5-point favorite this entire playoff run.
Mavericks being a favorite @BetMGM in Game 3 is notable. Why? Because it's just the second time in five months that the Celtics have been underdogs. Yet another way to quantify how dominant this Boston team has been. https://t.co/2iuC9vlwta
I am shocked we are getting this gift in Game 3, as Boston has easily outplayed Dallas over the first two games, and it even won Game 2 despite not having its typical success from beyond the arc.
Boston is a perfect 6-0 on the road so far this postseason, and until Dallas’ role players step up, it simply doesn't have a chance to take down the vaunted top-six players on Boston.
The lack of production from Kyrie Irving (13-for-37 from the field) in this series has made it extremely tough on Dallas, and even if their role players are expected to play better at home, Jason Kidd’s rotation has not been consistent since he’s still looking for guys who can come in and knock down shots.
Boston has dominated all season, posting the best net rating in the NBA in the regular season and the playoffs, and it hasn’t really played its A-game yet in this series with Tatum struggling mightily to score the ball.
Doncic is going to need to play a perfect game for Dallas to have a chance to win, and even if he does, I don’t think the Mavs should be favored entering this matchup.
I’ll gladly take Boston to win outright at plus money in Game 3.
Jayson Tatum OVER 15.5 Rebounds and Assists (-108) – 0.5 unit
Jayson Tatum may not be scoring at a high level for the Celtics, but he’s doing everything else in the NBA Finals.
Tatum comes into Game 3 shooting just 12-for-38 from the field, but he’s averaging 10.0 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game in the series, clearing 15.5 rebounds and assists in both games.
Not only that, but the All-NBA forward has led Boston in minutes, playing 42 in Game 1 and 45 in Game 2. That usage should help him rack up stats – especially on the glass.
Tatum has been guarding the center for Dallas to allow for more switching in the pick-and-roll, and it’s also forced him to be a huge factor on the glass. All postseason long, Tatum has filled it up in these categories, averaging 10.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game.
I’ll trust him to go OVER this number for the third straight game against Dallas in Game 3.
Jrue Holiday OVER 23.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120) – 0.5 unit
There’s a chance that Holiday wins the NBA Finals MVP award, as he’s averaging 19.0 points per game in the series and dominated Game 2, putting up 26 points on 11-of-14 shooting.
Holiday has cleared 23.5 points, rebounds and assists in eight of his last nine games this postseason, averaging 17.7 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game over that stretch.
Holiday’s experience in the NBA Finals has been evident, as he hasn’t gotten sped up and is shooting an insane 65.2 percent from the field in the series.
I have to go back to the well for Holiday with this prop only going from 22.5 to 23.5 after his huge Game 2.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Payton Pritchard and the Boston Celtics are currently awaiting the end of the Orlando Magic - Cleveland Cavaliers series to learn their opponent for the upcoming Eastern Conference semifinal series.
While everyone waits for the unofficial NBA TV series to wrap up on national television sometime this weekend, the local press gets to ask whatever questions they don't have time for when there are actual games to talk about, which is probably why someone finally asked Pritchard about his sneakers.
Prtichard wears Sabrina Ionescu's signature Nike shoes. Pritchard and Ionescu both went to Oregon as freshmen in 2016 and played all four years in Eugene before turning pro.
Ionescu was selected with the first pick of the 2020 WNBA draft, while Pritchard was taken 26th by the Celtics. While Pritchard doesn't have his own signature shoe, at least he found a comfortable one with his friend's name on it.
Payton Pritchard on why he wears Sabrina Ionescu’s shoes:
“Me and Sabrina are in the same class, and we went to Oregon together as freshmen. Her shoes are probably the most comfortable out right now. It’s light. I like it.” pic.twitter.com/rbROb4F1MU
Pritchard is not the only NBA player rocking the Sabrina's. During All-Star Weekend, Dallas Mavericks center Dereck Lively II revealed that he had an exciting exchange with Ionescu about her shoes. She thanked him for wearing them while he thanked her for making them so comfortable.
"Thank you for wearing my shoes." "Thank you for making them that comfortable."
That's some solid word-of-mouth. Not only does Ionescu have the skill and profile to be featured during NBA All-Star Saturday, but she also has got the footwear to back it up.
And if she has it her way, more WNBA players will get signature shoes. If they're half as comfortable as hers apparently are, that's a good thing for all basketball players.
Returning to the Boston lineup for the first time in more than five weeks, Porzingis was outstanding, finishing Game 1 with 20 points (on 8 for 13 shooting), six rebounds and three blocks. Coming off the bench for the first time this season, Porzingis made an immediate impact, racking up 11 points in the first seven minutes, helping the Celtics build a 37–20 lead.
“Even if I have time off, I can jump right back in and I feel the same way,” Porzingis said. “I get to my spots, so whether it’s playoffs, regular season or whatever, I know how to do this. That’s it, just having that confidence, going out there whatever, first round or Finals, just going out there with full confidence and giving what I have to the team.”
As solid as Boston was during the conference playoffs—and the Celtics lost just one game after Porzingis went out in the first round with a calf injury—Porzingis’s return clearly makes Boston measurably better. Porzingis torched the Mavericks offensively, exploiting switches and forcing Dallas’s bigs to chase him beyond the three-point line. Defensively, Porzingis was a menace; the shots he didn’t block he contested and on screens he all but dared the Mavs wing players to take the ball to the rim.
“He was great for them,” Mavericks star guard Luka Doncic said. “He was knocking down shots. He was blocking shots. So he was really, really huge for them on both ends of the floor.”
As thrilled as the Celtics were to get Porzingis back, the 7’2” big man was happier to be there. He received a loud ovation when he came out to warm up hours before the game. And the crowd exploded when Porzingis popped up on the JumboTron making the walk down the back hallway and onto the floor.
“Getting that kind of support was unreal,” Porzingis said. “The adrenaline was pumping through my veins and that definitely helped. Obviously, it wasn’t ideal that I was out for such a long time, but I did everything I could to prepare mentally for this moment coming back. And it paid off and we got the job done tonight and had a good game and [I’m] happy about the result.”
Entering this series, the Celtics believed they were uniquely equipped to defend Doncic. They had two All-Defensive Team members (Jrue Holiday and Derrick White) and Jaylen Brown, who probably deserved to be on one. Doncic got his points (30 on 12 for 26 shooting) but finished the game with one assist, his lowest total of the season. The lobs that powered Dallas’s offense in the conference finals? Gone. The corner threes? Taken away. The Mavericks’ nine assists were their lowest total of the season.
“They did a great job defending, making it tough on us,” Dallas head coach Jason Kidd said. “We had some good looks that didn’t go down. We’ve got to move the ball. The ball just stuck too much.”
Said Boston head coach Joe Mazzulla, “I thought our defensive mindset, our defensive execution, our defensive game plan, our positioning, we had the right intentions and I thought we played really physical, for the most part, defending without fouling.”
Doncic finished with 30 points but had only one assist, his lowest total of the season. / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Credit Brown, who glued himself to Doncic for most of his 37 minutes. Brown has the size and strength to stay in front of Doncic and the discipline not to bite on any of his pump-fakes. By not sending double teams, Boston shut down the rest of the Dallas offense; when Kidd waved the white flag in the fourth quarter, only two other Mavericks (Kyrie Irving and P.J. Washington) had scored in double figures and neither had more than 14 points.
“What you saw tonight is kind of the challenge he took for himself coming into the year,” Mazzulla said. “Not wanting to be defined by one thing. Wanting to make plays. Wanting to be a well-rounded player and get better and better. So his spacing, his ball movement, his defense on ball and off ball.”
The much-talked-about hostility from the TD Garden crowd toward Irving never materialized; it’s tough to get too fired up when your team spent most of the game leading by double digits. Irving’s return to Boston was a dismal one: 12 points (on 6 for 19 shooting), two assists and three turnovers. While Irving had to contend with Holiday most of the night, the ex–All-Star missed a lot of open looks, including several beyond the three-point line and three in the third quarter, when Dallas briefly cut the lead to single digits.
“They really rely on their great defensive ball pressure and one-on-one defenders,” Irving said. “They funnel us into certain areas. Even as I say that, that they are relying on the one-on-one, every time I got an iso, there’s almost two, three people waiting for me to get in there. I have to catch the ball on a live dribble and just be aware of my opportunities.”
The Celtics have been burying opponents in three-pointers all season, finishing first in the league in attempts (42.5 per game) and second in percentage (38.8%). In Game 1, the Celtics were 7 for 15 from three-point range in the first quarter, helping build the double-digit lead they wouldn’t surrender.
Hauser had a rough conference finals, connecting on 12.5% of his shots and making just one three in a four-game sweep of the Indiana Pacers. He shook that off in Game 1, collecting eight points and making both of his three-point attempts. When Dallas went Hauser-hunting in the first half, he responded, locking up Doncic on two possessions and forcing Irving into a missed three.
Hauser shook off a rough conference finals to post a solid outing in Game 1 of the Finals. / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
NBA commissioner Adam Silver didn’t provide one at his annual pre-Finals news conference. Silver declined to comment on reports the NBA had agreed to the framework of deals with ESPN, NBC and Amazon while passing on a specific question about whether or not Warner Bros. Discovery—the parent company for longtime NBA broadcast partner Turner—had the right to match any deal.
“It’s complicated for several reasons,” Silver said. “One is the advent of new platforms, particularly streaming, and the interest of streaming companies, and then the traditional media companies also carrying our games on streaming platforms. It’s complicated with multiple partners all seeking similar assets. In many cases, just figuring out the right way to balance those games as they go to different partners.
“We tend to do long-term deals. We think that’s good for the stability of the league, but it means, to a certain extent, you’re trying to predict the future, which is, of course, impossible. So part of it is a bet on the partners that we will ultimately align with and their ability also to adjust with the times and their willingness to continue to invest in media and also become global, which is very important to the league as well.”
