Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks are underdogs in the 2024 NBA Finals, and public bettors… are loving it?
Dallas is around +175 to +180 (depending on the sportsbook) to win the Finals (an implied probability of 36.36 percent), yet more than 80 percent of the bets at BetMGM are on the Mavs to win the series against the Boston Celtics.
It’s shocking to see bettors heavily backing Dallas since Boston has dominated the playoffs going 12-2 and finished the regular season with the best record and net rating in the NBA. Maybe it’s the plus money that has bettors intrigued, but can Dallas really pull off the win in the Finals?
Earlier on Monday, yours truly broke down this NBA Finals matchup with the latest odds, players to watch and keys to winning the series.
I still believe that Boston — with a healthy Kristaps Porzingis — is the better team and will go on to win the title.
However, Dallas has certainly made a compelling argument since the last 20 games of the regular season. Not only did the Mavs finish those 20 games 16-4 with the best defensive rating in the NBA, but they also won three straight playoff series as a road team and underdog.
That’s extremely impressive, and it could be what is causing this massive influx of public bets on the Mavs to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Doncic and Kyrie Irving will have their hands full with a tough defense that features Jrue Holiday, Derrick White and Jaylen Brown, but if the Mavs’ stars outplay Brown and Jayson Tatum, it could be enough to win this series.
Still, taking note of where the public’s money is can be a helpful strategy when deciding where to bet on a series.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum. Kyrie Irving vs. Boston. Kristaps Porzingis vs. Dallas.
The stage is set for the 2024 NBA Finals, and we could be in for quite the series, especially since both of these teams have gotten a ton of rest since the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.
Game 1 – on June 6 – is still a few days away, but the betting markets for the NBA Finals are alive and well. Not only are there odds for the series winner, exact games and NBA Finals MVP, but bettors can also wager on series-long player props ahead of Game 1 as well.
Using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, I’m taking a deep dive into this series where the Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win their first title in the Jayson Tatum era – something that has been building all season long in the futures market.
Dallas, who is the No. 5 seed in the West, won three consecutive playoff series as a road team and underdog, but can it win one more? Doncic and Irving certainly are as well-equipped as a duo could be to lead their team to the promised land.
As someone who is holding a preseason future on Boston, there are several ways to play this series. But, before getting into my pick, let’s discuss the series odds, correct score and Finals MVP markets and how they may shake out.
Based on implied probability, Boston has a 67.74 percent chance to win this series, while Dallas clocks in at 36.36 percent.
It makes sense since Boston has home-court advantage in this matchup, but the Mavericks have played some great basketball as of late. Not only did they post the best defensive rating in the NBA over their last 15 games of the regular season, but they closed the season on a 16-4 run to earn the No. 5 seed.
Since the trade deadline, when Dallas acquired PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, it has been a totally different team.
However, there is one thing that I’ve been tracking for years that is working against Dallas in this series. Since the 1996-97 season, every team that has won the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in net rating during the regular season.
Dallas did not in the 2023-24 campaign.
Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
Is this the year that this trend breaks? It could be given how drastically the Mavs’ roster changed at the trade deadline. Dallas had a net rating of +1.3 before the All-Star break (around the trade deadline) and it ended up posting a +3.7 net rating in 27 games out of the All-Star break – which was good for 12th in the NBA.
I try not to read into these trends too much, but this one has extended over 25 years, so it’s going to take a special team to break it.
As for Boston, this has been the expectation for the team all season long. The C’s have been Finals favorites for most of the campaign, and they rolled through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs.
While Boston has been maligned for having an easier path to the Finals due to injuries to its opponents, the Celtics beat whoever was in front of them, going 12-2 on their run. It’s hard to be much better than that.
Since Boston is heavily favored to win this series, it has the three most likely outcomes in the correct score odds at DraftKings.
Given Boston’s dominance on the road (6-0 this postseason), it isn’t crazy to think that this series could be over in five or six games, even though Dallas has yet to face a Game 7 all postseason.
The Mavericks’ most likely outcome is to take the series in six games, with a four or five game win sitting as a massive long shot. Dallas has an implied probability of just 7.69 percent to win in five games and five percent to win in four games.
Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite to win NBA Finals MVP with Boston favored in this series, but can we count out Jaylen Brown?
Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, yet he’s +650 to win Finals MVP. Tatum has played much better as of late, but he started the postseason off in a bit of a shooting slump, and will likely draw one of Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. for the entirety of the series against Dallas.
Luka Doncic (+205) is also interesting since he leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made.
Obviously, Dallas would have to overcome being a massive underdog for Doncic to win this award, but at +205 he presents some more value than simply taking the Mavs to win the series. It’s tough to see any other Dallas player winning this award based on the odds, unless Kyrie Irving has a massive series scoring the ball.
Doncic has been a triple-double machine in these playoffs, so we know he’s going to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis, which would help him when it comes to the Finals MVP voting.
Even though oddsmakers don’t seem to think this matchup will be super close, I actually believe we’re in for a terrific series given how Dallas matches up defensively with the Celtics.
Washington, Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II are all versatile defenders that could match up with Tatum, Brown and Porzingis respectively on defense. On the Boston side of things, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are about as good of a duo as you can have to deal with the offensive expertise of Doncic and Irving.
Dallas and Boston have both thrived in clutch minutes so far this postseason, and each team has All-Star closers that can take over a game. If Porzingis is back – and it seems like he is trending in that direction – both teams will also be as healthy as they’ve been all playoffs now that Maxi Kleber is back from a shoulder injury for Dallas.
So where does Boston’s advantage truly lie?
While the Celtics faced three banged-up teams to up the playoffs, they dominated a good chunk of their games, only losing on masterful Game 2 shooting performances by Miami (23-for-43 from 3 in Game 2) and Cleveland (13-for-28 from 3 in Game 2). In both of those games, Boston failed to make double-digit 3-pointers, but it has been one of the best shooting teams all season.
Doncic and Irving present a challenge the C’s haven’t faced yet, but to say Boston isn’t battle tested is flat out wrong.
The Celtics are 6-0 on the road in the playoffs and turned three games in the Eastern Conference Finals where their opponent – the Indiana Pacers – had a 90 percent win probability or higher, into wins. Regardless of who is on the floor, that’s impressive resilience from a team that has played in big games a lot in the Tatum-Brown era.
Dallas’ role players are going to have to knock down shots in this series – and they have for most of the playoffs – but Boston has more offensive firepower when Porzingis is in the lineup. A lot of people are forgetting they rolled through the last two rounds without KP’s 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds on the floor.
Moving Al Horford to a smaller role should combat the problems Boston had defending the pick-and-roll this postseason, and Porzingis (if healthy) gives Boston elite rim protection against lob threats like Gafford and Lively.
Dallas’ offense doesn’t have the ability to spread the floor like Boston’s does, and while I believe Doncic is the best player in this series, Boston has shown all season long that it is the best team.
I don’t think Dallas gets run out of the building like Boston did to the East, but given the Celtics’ ability to win on the road in this postseason – and past postseasons – with this core, I think they clean this up in six games.
Pick: Celtics in 6 (+475)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
BOSTON—Kristaps Porzingis didn’t want to talk about it.
“It didn’t work out,” Porzingis said.
Luka Doncic wanted nothing to do with it.
“Moved on,” Doncic said.
Tim Hardaway Jr. didn’t want to touch it.
“I think that’s a question for them,” Hardaway said.
It is the question of why Doncic and Porzingis, teammates for 2½ seasons with the Dallas Mavericks, didn’t pan out. In 2019, Dallas, midway through Doncic’s rookie season, made what qualified as a blockbuster trade, flipping a pair of first-round picks to the New York Knicks for a package headlined by Porzingis. In Porzingis, a then-23-year-old forward coming off an All-Star season, the Mavericks believed they had landed an ideal co-star for Doncic who would form the foundation for a title contender. Then-Dallas coach Rick Carlisle likened Doncic and Porzingis to another pair of Mavs stars, Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki.
“Only these guys,” Carlisle said, “are taller.”
It wasn’t. By 2022, Porzingis was gone, offloaded for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans. Porzingis’s numbers in his final 34 games in Dallas: 19.2 points on 45.1% shooting, including 28.3% from three.
“We had some good moments,” Porzingis said. “We had some decent moments. Overall I think it didn't work for both sides. It wasn’t perfect.”
Said Doncic, “I don’t really know. I don’t know why it didn’t work out. We were still both young. We tried to make it work. But it just didn’t work.”
Ask around the Mavericks about the Porzingis era, one that began with Carlisle as head coach and ended with Jason Kidd, and you hear many of the same things. The relationship with Doncic wasn’t a significant issue. “It’s always been good,” Porzingis insisted. Injuries were certainly a factor. Porzingis was traded while recovering from an ACL tear and tore his meniscus late in his first full season. Porzingis resisted Dallas’s analytics-based approach. He struggled in a catch-and-shoot role under Carlisle and couldn’t find a rhythm under Kidd.
“I thought it was going well in the sense of our defense, his ability to block shots, rebound,” Kidd said. “Then offensively we looked to post him up a little bit more than Rick had used him, which was strictly on the perimeter shooting threes. Both worked. He has the skill set to do both. I thought KP did great for us. But the business of basketball, there was a pivot. So from there things changed.”
With the Boston Celtics, Porzingis has been the kind of fit the Mavericks had hoped for. He averaged 20.1 points. He shot a career-best 51.5% from the floor. He connected on 37.5% of his threes. He blocked nearly two shots per game, backstopping the NBA’s third-rated defense.
Asked when he knew Porzingis would be a good fit, Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said, “right away.”
“I think all he cares about is winning,” Mazzulla said. “He’s used the experiences he’s had around the league. He’s seen a lot. He’s seen it all. He’s seen success. He’s seen tough times. He knows what the league is all about. I think at this point in his career, winning is the most important thing.”
Indeed, at 28, Porzingis has seen a lot. He was the unicorn in New York, a budding superstar … until he wasn’t. Dallas was a disaster. He put up numbers with the Washington Wizards for a team going nowhere. Boston afforded him a unique opportunity: a role he was ready for on a team that needed him to win.
“KP essentially did exactly what we needed him to do the entire season,” Jayson Tatum said. “Whether it was punish switches or space the five man and be in the corner. Sometimes that might be going possessions without touching the ball or it may be when they’re switching, we give him the ball five times in a row. I give KP a lot of credit. Especially somebody as talented as he is and obviously as tall as he is, a lot of big guys may be stuck in their ways doing what makes him comfortable. He got outside his comfort zone a little bit and it made us a better team.”
Porzingis’s ability to be that player in the NBA Finals is an open question. He has not played since late April, since a calf strain sidelined him. He says he will play in Game 1 on Thursday. Boston did not list him on its injury report. But even Porzingis admits he’s not sure how sharp he is going to be.
“I did as much as I could to prepare for this moment,” Porzingis said. “But there’s nothing like game minutes and game experience that I’m going to get tomorrow. It will be tough to jump into the Finals like this. I did everything I could to prepare for it and we’ll see [Thursday] night.”
And Dallas? Porzingis is eager to beat the Mavs. But he insists none of it is personal.
“I know at that time there were some rumors there’s like something in the locker room,” Porzingis said. “It was never like that. It’s all just noise at the end. It wasn’t just perfect for us playing together. It didn’t work out, that’s it. We moved on. There’s no, like, ill will from their side, for sure from my side. I don’t think there should be. Just didn’t work out. But I have nothing but love for Dallas and for the teammates and for everybody there.”
The Cleveland Cavaliers overcame a 10-point halftime deficit to blow the doors off the Orlando Magic on Sunday in Game 7 of their first round NBA playoffs series, which will earn them a date with the top-seeded Boston Celtics in round two. Jubiliant fans at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse spent the final minutes chanting "we want Boston" because that's just what fans do and they are entirely right to prefer the season keep going rather than end. Heck, it's not even that interesting of an event, even though the Celtics are heavy favorites to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.
— Bally Sports Cleveland (@BallySportsCLE) May 5, 2024
But Boston reserve forward Oshae Brisset found the development intriguing enough to post about, saying "hear the chants" with one of those eye-covering emojis available on X, formerly Twitter. Then he deleted it, which doesn't do much good after enough people see it.
Brisset played six minutes in the Celtics' opening round victory over the Miami Heat. He's not expected to be a major factor in the battle against Cleveland either. Or perhaps that's changed after a routine chant awakened a sleeping giant.
There are no real rules for this but it does seem like most people are already operating on the sensible plane when it comes to in-arena proclamations about wanting to play whatever team is next on the schedule. Which is that it's entirely fine. There's nothing wrong with it at all and no one is going to be the first person to, in that moment, start a "we're probably going to lose chant" because they might need a ride home from their buddy after the final buzzer. Pretty much every human who made it public that they "wanted Bama" lived to regret it. It's just something you say.
