Friday features a jam-packed slate of Major League Baseball action, and there are plenty of ways to bet in the prop market with so many teams playing.
I’ve narrowed down my picks for Friday’s slate to just three, with two starting pitchers and one red-hot hitter getting the nod.
The game of the night on Friday is likely between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, and Yankees slugger Aaron Judge may need to have a big game after Juan Soto exited Thursday night’s contest with left forearm discomfort.
Judge is one of the three players I’m targeting tonight, so let’s dive into the picks for June 7:
Atlanta Braves lefty Chris Sale is coming off a rough outing to open June, allowing eight earned runs in four innings against the A’s, but I think he’s due for a bounce-back showing against the Washington Nationals on Friday.
Sale was terrific in May, allowing just two earned runs across five starts (32.0 innings of work), so I’m not reading too much into his clunker to start June.
The Braves are 8-3 in Sale’s 11 starts this season, and he’s earned the decision in every win, posting an 8-1 record. Prior to his last outing, Sale had earned the win in seven consecutive starts.
Rather than laying the price on the Braves moneyline, I like taking Sale to earn the win against a Washington team that struggles against left-handed pitching, ranking 27th in MLB in OPS.
Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Walks (-125)
Judge and Soto have been the best duo in baseball this season, but if Soto misses this game – or extended time – Judge may see less pitches to hit going forward.
As it is, Judge has drawn at least one walk in five straight games, and he’s racked 52 total walks in 64 games so far in 2024.
Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto doesn’t walk a ton of hitters (just 14 in 12 starts), but I can’t imagine he’ll look to attack Judge every at bat with Soto likely out of the lineup on Friday.
Judge has been great at drawing walks and getting on base for years, so I’ll gladly take him at this price on Friday.
Griffin Canning UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Los Angeles Angels starter Griffin Canning has a tough matchup on Friday, as he’s taking on the Houston Astros, who strikeout a league-low 6.83 times per game this season.
Canning has cleared 4.5 strikeouts in just four of his 12 outings in 2024, and he struck out just two Houston batters across five innings in his first outing against the Stros this season.
Overall, Canning ranks in just the 13th percentile in strikeout percentage this season, so I don’t see him racking up a huge number on this prop against the least strikeout prone offense in the league.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Judge, who measures in at 6’7’’ and 282 pounds, is only a few inches taller than Ohtani, but with the season he’s having, it’s no wonder Judge can sometimes seem larger than life.
The five-time All-Star recorded his league-leading 24th home run of the season in the eighth inning of the Yankees’ 6–4 win against the Dodgers on Sunday. Ohtani, for his part, is slashing .311/.379/.571 with 15 homers on the year.
Judge and Ohtani rarely find themselves in direct competition with each other, yet there was one play from the game in which Judge tried—but ultimately failed—to throw out Ohtani. During the eighth inning, the Dodgers star proved too speedy and managed to outrun Judge’s throw to home plate, sliding in milliseconds before the catcher tried to tag him.
The Yankees avoided the sweep against the Dodgers and went home with the victory, but this will hardly be the last time that the league’s top sluggers in Ohtani and Judge square off.
During an appearance on the Talkin' Yanks podcast on Tuesday, Yankees manager Aaron Boone, who is no stranger to being ejected from ballgames, weighed in on the incident and revealed what he said to Judge after the game.
"It was surprising. I don't think he should've got ejected," Boone said. "He's walking away, he's not in an aggressive stance or anything, like, come on, man."
Boone said that he rewarded Judge with the game ball after New York's 5–3 win over the Tigers, and joked that he gave him a, "Welcome to the club."
After Judge's ejection, Boone gave him the game ball and a "welcome to the club" pic.twitter.com/nYFmJ6d4hp
Boone was ejected seven times last season, which was tied with Cincinnati Reds skipper David Bell for the most in MLB. Already with two ejections under his belt in 2024, Boone paces the American League, a feat he's stunningly achieved in each season since 2021, a span during which he's been tossed 24 times.
Judge, who had gone 869 games without getting ejected in his career, was the first Yankees captain since Don Mattingly in 1994 to get thrown out of a game.
Judge didn't elaborate when asked what was said between him and Blakney, telling reporters that he preferred to leave it out on the field.
Armageddon awaits. Likely for the first time since the 1978 World Series, the New York Yankees will host the Los Angeles Dodgers this weekend with each team claiming first place.
The Yankees have the better offense, the better starting pitching and the better bullpen. The Dodgers have the better defense. Most surprisingly, we all know which team has the better 1-2-3 at the top of the lineup. And it’s not the one with the three Most Valuable Players that even before a box of game balls was cracked open had people scrambling to compare them to the greatest trios ever to top a lineup.
Step aside Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. You have been upstaged by Anthony Volpe, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge.
First, the cold, hard facts:
R
H
HR
RBI
Total Bases
Avg.
SLG
Volpe, Soto, Judge
131
207
44
125
394
.298
Betts, Ohtani, Freeman
119
215
30
105
366
.311
Second, one 100 mph pitch that helps explains why the Yankees’ trio is better: an 0-and-1 cut fastball to Volpe on Sunday from San Francisco Giants closer Camilo Doval, who had held righthanded batters to a .098 average this year. With one on and one out in the ninth, Doval was holding a two-run lead and a 91.7%-win probability. If he dismissed Volpe, Doval could avoid Judge, whom the Giants had retired only four times in 12 tries in his Bay Area homecoming.
Last season Doval could have exploited multiple holes in Volpe’s swing to put him away. Caught up in an analytical-fueled quest to get balls airborne to the pull side, Volpe swung uphill with too much head movement. He could not hit top-rail fastballs (.125), inside fastballs (.195) or breaking pitches (.148).
Doval was about to find this out. He threw a 99.9 mph cutter buried so far inside that it was off the plate. No matter. Volpe 2.0 kept his hands inside the ball and with a short, quick lash carved the pitch into the right-centerfield gap for an RBI triple. He could not do that last year.
With that one swing, another Yankees win was set in motion. Two pitches later, Soto clobbered a high fastball for a go-ahead homer.
A high fastball? Is anybody paying attention? I am astonished how teams keep thinking they can get high fastballs past Soto. This is all you need to know about how to pitch Soto:
Soto by Fastball Height in Zone This Season
Avg.
SLG
HR
Top Third
.459
1.054
7
Middle Third
.447
1.128
8
Bottom Third
.188
.313
0
That’s 15 of his 17 home runs this year resulting from fastballs in the zone belt high or higher. His past 35 home runs off fastballs in the zone have all been middle-up. Soto hasn’t hit a low fastball for a home run in almost a year—since June 14, 2023.
Judge, who is hitting everything, walked, stole second and scored on a Giancarlo Stanton double. In a span of just a dozen pitches, the Yankees scored four times and turned what was about to be a 5–3 loss into a 7–5 win.
Sure, Judge is slugging .658 and Soto has a .417 OBP and Stanton is on pace for 37 homers … all impressive, but … they’ve all been there, done that. All have been better than that in past years. Volpe is the difference maker, slashing .284/.352/.440 a year after going .209/.283/.383. He and Jurickson Profar of the San Diego Padres are the most improved hitters in baseball. Volpe gives the Yankees a leadoff hitter with speed and that kind of OBP for the first time since Derek Jeter in 2009. He creates traffic for Soto and Judge as an elite baserunner (95th percentile).
Volpe’s transformation is extraordinary. Adopting a more traditional, 1980s-type style in the batter’s box, Volpe is embracing groundballs (up from 41% to 52%), hitting the other way (23% to 32%) and putting the ball in play (he has cut his strikeout rate from 28% to 21%)—qualities that are not stressed enough at a time when batting average is the fourth lowest in history (.240).
Try to find another hitter who cut his pull percentage anywhere near what Volpe has done. You won’t. He has cut his pull rate by 21.4% (46.7% to 25.3%). Betts’s 13.8% decline is the next biggest turning away from the pull side.
The Dodgers coming to Yankee Stadium is a clash of titans and the rare renewal of a classic rivalry. The Yankees and Dodgers rank Nos. 1 and 2 in OPS, respectively, and 1 and 3 in home runs, slugging and ERA, respectively.
The Dodgers are 13–24 in the Bronx, including 3–2 in regular season games in 2016 (when the Yankees were in fourth place) and 2013 (when the Dodgers were 29–39). In the postseason, the Yankees own a big edge at home against the Dodgers, 22–10. (The Yankees were a fourth-place team when they met in the 1981 World Series; having qualified for the playoffs in the split season of the strike-marred year by winning the division in the first half.)
The star power is off the charts this weekend. Six of the past 14 MVP Awards have been won by players in this matchup (Ohtani has won two; Judge, Freeman, Betts and Stanton one each). Ohtani is a career .130 hitter at Yankee Stadium, the seventh worst of anyone with 50 plate appearances in the latest version of the yard—but he does have four homers there in just 46 at-bats. Judge has a 1.026 OPS in Yankee Stadium, the highest by any active player in any park with at least 1,500 plate appearances.
Judge has homered in 28% of the games he has played in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees win 79.0% of games when Judge homers in the Bronx (98–26). For some historical perspective, Babe Ruth homered in 27% of his games in the original yard while the Yankees won 77.1% of those games (178–53).
Amid all the MVPs and the monster home run hitters, however, don’t overlook the importance of the 5'9" leadoff hitter for New York looking to make his first All-Star team. Volpe has emerged as an impact player. The Yankees are 27–5 (.844) when Volpe scores a run and 14–14 (.500) when he doesn’t.
