Kevin Brown and Ben McDonald called Sunday’s Baltimore Orioles–Cincinnati Reds game on MASN. The away team crushed the home Reds, 11-1, leaving plenty of opportunity for Kevin Brown to really explore the space. By the time Adley Rutschman singled in the seventh inning, Brown was referencing the Kendrick Lamar-Drake beef.
“Gets a piece! Flares it over De La Cruz, which is basically like hitting a ball over a skyscraper! And Ramon scores on the RBI single. He’s got more hits this week than Kendrick Lamar.”
“He’s got more hits this week than Kendrick Lamar” -Orioles broadcaster Kevin Brown pic.twitter.com/wTb4cUPclu
This reference was met with complete silence before McDonald said, “I know there’s a joke in there somewhere.” Without missing a beat Brown shot back that the reference, “went over your head just like it went over De La Cruz’s.”
Brown surely cannot be surprised that McDonald didn’t get it. Just last season he had to explain to McDdonald who blink-182 was. Expecting a guy who apparently missed out on mainstream music culture over the last two decades to know who is involved in the latest rap beef seems unlikely. The man isn’t even stay up to date on ice cream flavors.
Along those same lines, Brown did the audience a disservice by not asking McDonald if he has ever heard of Drake. In fact, he should probably make it a point of emphasis to see how many times he can make a popular culture reference that McDonald doesn’t get. The Orioles currently have one of the best records in baseball and own the best run differential in the American League. There should be plenty of low stakes late game situations to really get creative.
Thursday is a travel day for a handful of teams in the big leagues, but we still have baseball starting in the afternoon.
With about a third of the season finished, it's time to look for some buy-low candidates and I have my eye on Twins' starter Pablo Lopez, who is due for a big uptick in production as the calendar flips to June. The matchup is daunting against the surging Yankees, but are the Twins live for an upset?
I have betting break downs for each game on the Thursday MLB card below!
The Orioles are the best-hitting team in baseball against left-handed pitching, making this is a tough ask for the Blue Jays, who will start Yusei Kikuchi on Thursday afternoon.
Yes, Kikuch has lowered his walk rate to a career-low of five percent, but he still allows hard contact at a 43% clip, ranking in the 19th percentile, per MLBStatcast, a ripe matchup for the Orioles loaded lineup.
After a rain out on Wednesday, we get a Thursday meeting between these two, and I’m looking to fade Royal starter Brady Singer.
Brady Singer has 2.63 ERA but is due a ton of regression with an xERA of 4.35.
Against a Guardians lineup that can put the ball in play at an elite level, 11th in OPS, I’ll back the home favorite.
Bryan Woo has looked the part in five starts this season, posting a 1.30 ERA as he continues to be stretched out. Woo is striking out fewer batters, down to 18% from 25% as a rookie, but is walking only two percent of hitters while limiting posting an elite blend of fastball and off-speed pitches to avoid blowup innings.
With limited path to base runners, I struggle to see the A’s keeping up on Thursday.
Los Angeles is the second-best hitting team against lefties this season and draws a favorable matchup against Bailey Falter of the Pirates, who has seen his strikeout rate diminish to 15% this season.
Falter won’t be able to get around the vaunted bats of Los Angeles, and somebody is due for a big-hitting day against him with his xERA sitting far higher than his actual ERA (3.22 vs. 4.73).
I’ll take a stab at the Nationals as home underdogs on the premise of a summer drop-off from Reynaldo Lopez, the Braves starter.
Lopez has a 1.73 ERA, but his xERA is far higher at 3.72. He has been crushed by hard contact (42nd percentile) and his offspeed pitches are ineffective (17th percentile in terms of run value), and I believe the Nationals can have success. This is worth a flier on a home underdog.
Pablo Lopez’s numbers don’t indicate that he’s pitching at a high level, but he may be due for a big jump statistically based on his pitching. He has a 4.84 ERA despite posting a career-best walk rate. He has an xERA of 2.99 despite posting a 73rd percentile xBA, and I believe that he will turn it around soon.
I’ll fade the red-hot Yankees with a pitcher that is ripe to outperform expectations.
The Cubs slide in play continues, and this matchup doesn’t set up well for them as the team heads to Cincinnati to face the Reds with emerging arm Hunter Greene on the mound.
Chicago is 29th in OPS over the last 30 days while the Reds check in eighth. Further, Cubs’ starter Javier Assad may be due for a drop in play after a strong start to the year. He has a 2.27 ERA that is supported by a 3.72 xERA.
Sonny Gray has been on a tear this season. He has a 3.00 ERA while striking out a career-best 33.5% of batters. Even when hitters are putting the ball in play, it's soft contact (66th percentile in hard-hit percentage).
At home, the Cardinals should have little issue getting past the Rockies.
Tanner Houck is putting up All-Star numbers for Boston this season, posting a 1.85 ERA, and now faces the worst offense in Major League Baseball in Chicago, with the lowest OPS.
I’m not backing an upset given the lack of talent for the White Sox.
This is a fade of Randy Vasquez of the Padres, who has a 5.41 xERA and is walking nearly 10% of batters. This is problematic against the Diamondbacks, a team that is top 10 in walks this season and eighth in on-base percentage.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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The year following a breakout postseason appearance, the 2016 Chicago Cubs won the World Series with six starting position players aged 26 and younger. Eight years later, the Baltimore Orioles, in the year following a breakout postseason appearance, will have five or six starting position players aged 26 and younger once Jackson Holliday returns from his minor league sabbatical with his confidence restored.
Both teams went through deep rebuilds. Both teams built their core by using high draft picks on position players, not pitchers, especially out of college. Both teams had Brandon Hyde on the staff—as a coach with the Cubs and as manager with the Orioles.
One piece of symmetry remains to complete the picture. Like the Cubs, who traded future All-Star Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman, Baltimore must trade from its positional surplus to add a power arm to the bullpen. As then Cubs GM Theo Epstein said when he made the deal even with a 7 ½ game lead on July 25, “If not now, when?” The mission had grown from just making the playoffs to ending a massive World Series drought.
“We don’t win the World Series without Chappy,” former Cubs manager Joe Maddon says.
The Orioles, who last won the World Series in 1983, are in the same position. Taking Holliday off the table, Baltimore can put top prospects Samuel Basallo, Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad in play to get a lockdown late inning arm such as Mason Miller of Oakland or Jhoan Duran of Minnesota. The point is that like the 2016 Cubs, the 2024 Orioles are a world championship-caliber team with an obvious need and obvious surplus.
“The teams have different personalities,” Hyde says. “That Cubs team had a lot of young players and a lot of older players with almost nothing in between. [David] Ross, [John] Lackey, [Ben] Zobrist, Miguel Montero … like fatherly figures to the young guys. But in terms of the everyday players, the talent, the athleticism, the expectations they have for themselves, they are very, very similar.”
Says Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo, a member of those 2016 Cubs, “They’re a really, really good team that probably is going to add pitching. It’s a long season. I know we play them in the last week of September. And I expect those games are going to be very meaningful.”
With John Means and Kyle Bradish returning to the rotation this week, starting pitching is less of a priority than an elite closer, given health and command issues of Craig Kimbrel, the closer who turns 36 this month and has a 6.75 ERA in his past 10 postseason games.
Righthander Grayson Rodriguez is the wild card in the rotation. He went on the IL this week with shoulder soreness, an injury that was not a surprise given the innings jump Baltimore heaped on him last year at age 23 (+62 from his previous high), his mechanics and his elite velocity. Of the 21 starting pitchers to average 96.5 MPH or more from 2019 to ’23, Rodriguez is the 19th to break down. The only elite velocity throwers to escape the IL are Luis Castillo and Cole Ragans.
Rodriguez has the arm to be a potential front of the rotation pitcher and a difference maker in the postseason. He needs more development to get there. He needs to improve his fastball command so that he can spot a fastball when he needs to (he can’t do that now), he needs to improve his hand/wrist placement and release on his four-seamer so that he creates more ride than run and he needs to improve the timing of his delivery.
One Orioles source says Rodriguez “was gassed” by the time he reached the postseason. He gave up five runs on six hits in less than two innings against Texas in the ALCS. The attrition then and into this season shows in the data. With each month, Rodriguez’s release point and velocity have been dropping:
Rodriguez's vertical release point and velocity.
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The left is Rodriguez pitching in April 2023 and the right is Rodriguez in April 2024.
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Rodriguez has a bit of funk to his delivery, which is not advantageous to a power pitcher because of the extra torque elite velocity puts on the arm. He pulls his arm stiffly behind him, pulling the ball past parallel, and does not have the ball raised with his arm in a 90-degree angle when his front foot lands, which often creates stress that first shows in the shoulder. Here’s a look at those key points in his delivery this week against the New York Yankees:
A look at Rodriguez's form while pitching against the Yankees in April 2024.
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Here is teammate Corbin Burnes at those same points. Note on the left the arm position on his takeaway, as the arm is not past parallel and the elbow has begun to bend to raise the ball. On the right, the arm is at a 90-degree angle as the front foot lands.
A look at Burnes's form at the same crucial points.
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For all the talk about Rodriguez’s elite velocity, he does not pitch like a true power pitcher. His changeup and curveball are outstanding. When he needs to get back into a count or rely on a pitch in a big spot, he’s going to rely on his secondary staff. That’s a gift for such a young pitcher. But the numbers show his fastball gets hit:
Rodriguez by Pitch Type, Career
Rodriguez by pitch type in his career.
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Over the past two years, 25 pitchers have allowed a .300 average or higher on at least 500 four-seamers. Rodriguez is the only one who throws 97. Among the 27 pitchers who average 96.5 and higher, Rodriguez’s .340 average allowed is 51 points higher than anybody else.
His fastball ranks in the 87th percentile in velocity this year but only in the 52nd percentile when it comes to run value. Why does such an elite velocity fastball rate as mediocre? Start with his spin rate. It is slightly below average (2,256 RPM; average is 2,288).
Another issue is the way Rodriguez’s fastball comes out of his hand. A four-seam fastball with elite ride has close to true north-south underspin to better fight gravity, causing the pitch to sink less than a hitter expects. Rodriguez’s fastball because of his hand position comes out with arm-side run. It has average drop (a measurement of “ride”) but extreme horizontal movement (“run”). A four-seamer with run is easier to hit than one with ride because it tends to stay on the same plane as the bat path rather than over it.
Rodriguez Fastball Movement
Drop: 12.9 inches; vs. Avg.: 2% Horizontal: 11.7 inches; vs. Avg.: 60%
If Rodriguez can trade run for ride, he will have an elite north-south combination with a top-of-the-zone fastball and devastating changeup. His ceiling is extremely high.
The good news for Baltimore is it appears Rodriguez may be suffering only from fatigue rather than a structural issue. He is expected to be shut down for two to three weeks. Starting May 17, the Orioles face 43 games in 45 days. Assuming Rodriguez returns for that stretch, they will deploy a six-man rotation through that grind, just as they did last August.
“The six-man rotation last August saved our season,” Hyde says.
Like the 2016 Cubs, the Orioles are built to play seven full months. The six-man rotation is just one strategy designed to prepare for October. Another is a firm pitch limit on starting pitchers. The Orioles are adamant about getting their starter out as he approaches 100 pitches, no matter their age or experience or game situation. Dean Kramer and Rodriguez were pulled in the middle of an inning with 101 pitches and Burnes once at 100. That’s as far as any Baltimore starter has been allowed to go.
Rizzo is right to expect a close race. The Orioles and Yankees are not likely to be separated by more than three games when they meet in the last week of the season. By then, the Orioles hope to have a rotation with gas left in the tank and an additional power arm at the back of their bullpen.
The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles, locked in for a final game of a four-game set on Thursday afternoon to determine the sole leader of the AL East, were delayed briefly for a reason you probably haven't heard before. A wristwatch was causing issues for Juan Soto in the third inning.
Soto complained to the umpire about something out near the batter's eye. There was some confusion both in the stadium and among broadcasters of the game over what the complaint was. The umpire went to the Orioles' dugout to have them make a phone call to the bullpen to communicate with the perpetrator in the outfield.
An official of some sort was sitting in a walkway near the batter's eye in a white shirt, and he briefly moved back a few feet, thinking his shirt was the issue.
"Someone send him an orange shirt!" color commentator Joe Girardi joked on YES Network.
Shortly after, it was clarified that a police officer stationed nearby was the actual issue. His watch face was reflecting the sun toward home plate, making it difficult for Soto to see where the ball was.
We had a brief delay as Juan Soto complained about the badge/watch of a police officer stationed beyond the centerfield wall. That's a new one!
