Kevin Brown and Ben McDonald called Sunday’s Baltimore Orioles–Cincinnati Reds game on MASN. The away team crushed the home Reds, 11-1, leaving plenty of opportunity for Kevin Brown to really explore the space. By the time Adley Rutschman singled in the seventh inning, Brown was referencing the Kendrick Lamar-Drake beef.
“Gets a piece! Flares it over De La Cruz, which is basically like hitting a ball over a skyscraper! And Ramon scores on the RBI single. He’s got more hits this week than Kendrick Lamar.”
“He’s got more hits this week than Kendrick Lamar” -Orioles broadcaster Kevin Brown pic.twitter.com/wTb4cUPclu
This reference was met with complete silence before McDonald said, “I know there’s a joke in there somewhere.” Without missing a beat Brown shot back that the reference, “went over your head just like it went over De La Cruz’s.”
Brown surely cannot be surprised that McDonald didn’t get it. Just last season he had to explain to McDdonald who blink-182 was. Expecting a guy who apparently missed out on mainstream music culture over the last two decades to know who is involved in the latest rap beef seems unlikely. The man isn’t even stay up to date on ice cream flavors.
Along those same lines, Brown did the audience a disservice by not asking McDonald if he has ever heard of Drake. In fact, he should probably make it a point of emphasis to see how many times he can make a popular culture reference that McDonald doesn’t get. The Orioles currently have one of the best records in baseball and own the best run differential in the American League. There should be plenty of low stakes late game situations to really get creative.
Anyone who’s ever started a new job knows the feeling. You’re new to the area, perhaps you don’t know the workspace layout very well. Coworkers’ names prove elusive. Maybe you do something mildly embarrassing to leave a shaky early impression—for example, in the case of Baltimore Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser, throw away a treasured keepsake of your nine-time All-Star closer.
There’s a reason they call them rookie mistakes: It’s because rookies make them. A lot of them.
But fear not, newbies, because the 2024 season is now more than a month old, giving plenty of opportunities to shake off the early butterflies and settle into your new lives as big leaguers. To mark the occasion, we present to you the first edition of Sports Illustrated's Rookie Roundup. Each week, we’ll check in on the latest from the game’s standout first-year players, alternating between the American and National Leagues.
The idea is to shine a spotlight on the best (and most entertaining) happenings from rookies far and wide. We’ll cover the headliners, of course—and with the steady influx of young talent, there are plenty of already big names to track—but also aim to uncover hidden gems making names for themselves as the season progresses.
This week’s focus is simple: We’ll highlight the five best AL rookies so far, with the NL’s top five coming next week. All of the players considered have, of course, made their fair share of rookie blunders. But they’ve made up for them (and then some) with their stellar play to this point.
1. Colton Cowser, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore’s organizational rebuild (read: tank-a-thon) from the late-2010’s resulted in the franchise picking in the top-five of the draft in four consecutive years from ’19 to ’22. One of those picks turned into Cowser, whose 26-game debut last season (with a .115 batting average and zero home runs) left a lot to be desired. Named to the Opening Day roster by manager Brandon Hyde after posting a 1.136 OPS during spring training, Cowser seized an everyday role by the season’s second week and hasn’t looked back.
Cowser’s hitting profile is a modern twist on the "three true outcomes" template: lots of walks and strikeouts, sure, but plenty of hard contact (rather than merely home runs). His 34.3% strikeout rate is the eighth-highest among players with at least 90 plate appearances, and his 38.1% whiff rate is the seventh-highest. But a quick glance at his Baseball Savant page shows plenty of red bars, as Cowser’s barrel rate, hard-hit rate and expected slugging percentage all rank in the 90th percentile or better. Combine all that with a 10.1% walk rate and excellent defense, and Cowser could follow in Gunnar Henderson’s footsteps and make it back-to-back Rookie of the Year awards for the Orioles.
Miller has struck out 29 batters in 14 1/3 innings so far this season.
Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports
2. Mason Miller, RP, Oakland Athletics
If they gave trophies to teams for putting together five-and-a-half weeks of mediocre play when almost everybody in the baseball world expected nothing short of total ineptitude, the Athletics would get one. The franchise is in an abysmal position, with an owner resolved to move the team to Las Vegas and coming off consecutive 100-plus loss seasons. While the roster is low on household names (an A’s staple as old as time itself), the team has outperformed projections to this point with a 17–18 mark, and Miller’s been a key reason.
A five-year college career spent at Division III Waynesburg (with one season at Gardner-Webb) didn’t keep Miller from being drafted by Oakland in the third round in 2021. He logged just 28 2/3 minor league innings from ’21 to ’23 before debuting in April of last year. Miller pitched in 10 games for the A’s last season—six of them starts—and impressed enough to make the roster out of spring training this season as a part of the bullpen.
That’s an extremely truncated acceleration timeline, which is sort of fitting given how quickly Miller has ascended into becoming the league’s most dominant closer. His fastball averages (yes, averages) 100.7 mph, and he’s struck out 29 of the 54 batters he’s faced this season. Miller is a perfect 8-for-8 in save chances, helping Oakland to a 7–5 record in one-run games. His FIP currently sits at -0.06, and while it’s sure to climb out of the red eventually, Miller’s already established himself as one of baseball’s most electric pitchers.
3. Wilyer Abreu, OF, Boston Red Sox
Abreu earned himself a late August call-up in 2023 but retained his rookie status coming into ‘24. He hit well in his debut, and has built on last year’s showing to quickly become one of Boston’s most important pieces so far.
Abreu ranks fourth among AL rookies in runs scored (16) and RBIs (13), adding strong defense in right field and speed on the base paths, going a perfect 5-for-5 in stolen base attempts. If there’s a reason to temper optimism a bit, it’s the fact that his .297/.381/.473 slash line is buoyed by a .403 BABIP. Statcast paints a far less enthusiastic view of Abreu, with an expected batting average of .225. Even if regression is on the way, he’s shown enough to solidify promise as a bonafide everyday player.
Gil gave up just two hits and no runs with five strikeouts in his last start against the Orioles.
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
4. Luis Gil, SP, New York Yankees
New York’s rotation has collectively risen to the occasion in reigning Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole’s absence, and Gil has more than done his part in the efforts.
The 25-year-old has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his six starts. His most impressive outing was also his most recent: 6 1/3 shutout innings against the Orioles on Wednesday. Gil averages 11.61 strikeouts per nine innings, fourth-most among pitchers who have thrown at least 30 frames. Walks have been an issue, though one that’s trending in the right direction: He gave up 17 free passes in 19 2/3 innings in his first four outings, but has allowed only three in his last two starts.
5. James McArthur, RP, Kansas City Royals
A Royals team coming off of a 106-loss campaign has been one of 2024’s biggest surprises so far, with a 20–15 record and the second-highest run differential (plus-44) in the AL. There’s plenty of credit to go around the roster, but McArthur’s emergence as a lockdown closer (Sunday’s blown save against the Rangers notwithstanding) deserves recognition.
McArthur’s best asset is his control. He’s walked only two of the 66 batters he’s faced so far, compared to 18 strikeouts. Missing bats is also a strength, as McArthur has a whiff rate of 34.9%. Sunday’s meltdown was his first blown save since taking over as the team’s closer, but even then, his strengths were on display. He drew 18 swings on his 30 pitches—with eight of them whiffs—and he didn’t walk a batter. McArthur spent six years in the Philadelphia Phillies’ system working primarily as a starter before being traded to the Royals in 2023, beginning his transition to the bullpen. He seems to have found his rhythm there, and has so far played a crucial role in one of MLB’s best success stories.
UPDATE: Juan Soto's MRI came back with only inflammation, according to MLB insider Jon Heyman. His AL MVP odds have still dropped to +450 at FanDuel Sportsbook -- but they have rebounded after falling as low as +650.
The initial prognosis on Juan Soto's MRI is that it's only inflammation and he should be ok, per @JonHeyman
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 7, 2024
What follows is the initial story of the odds movement following Soto's exit from Thursday night's game against the Minnesota Twins. His odds have remained the same at DraftKings Sportsbook (+235) throughout this process.
New York Yankees fans everywhere held their breath on Thursday night after Juan Soto was lifted from the team's win with what the Yankees called, "left forearm discomfort."
However, MLB insider Jon Heyman revealed on Friday that the Yankees are "nervous" when it comes to Soto and his injury and his odds have fallen since the injury occurred.
"The Yankees have their fingers crossed, they're nervous."
— New York Post Sports (@nypostsports) June 7, 2024
Soto is slashing an impressive .318/.424/.603 with 17 homers on the season. He was right behind teammate Aaron Judge in the odds as the No. 2 favorite for the AL MVP.
That has since changed at FanDuel Sportsbook, a sign that Soto could be looking at a stint on the injured list. Even if Soto plays, oddsmakers may be taking their chance on him being less effective with his forearm bothering him, at least in terms of his ability to win AL MVP.
Kansas City Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. and Baltimore Orioles star Gunnar Henderson have leapfrogged Soto in the latest AL MVP odds. Soto dropped from +210 to +650 since being removed from Thursday's game, a massive falloff that signals oddsmakers believe he's at least expected to miss some time or be less effective in the MVP race.
The other important note here is Judge has jumped to a clear favorite in this market. After posting an OPS over 1.400 in May, Judge is now hitting .289 on the season and leads baseball in homers (21), doubles, and walks drawn.
Despite the movement at FanDuel, that isn't the case everywhere in the betting market.
In this case, oddsmakers still believe in Soto's AL MVP case, although Witt Jr. and Henderson are right on his heels for the No. 2 spot.
Until the Yankees officially announce a roster move, Soto's status is truly up in the air.
The star outfielder addressed the media on Thursday, saying he's been dealing with the ailment for a couple of weeks. While he's been able to play through it, there has to be some concern that this has been building over time.
Juan Soto says he's felt the forearm tightness for a couple weeks but it hasn't impacted his baseball related activities at all pic.twitter.com/UuyC2ATyyA
Soto didn't have to make many throws against the Twins on Thursday, and it's unclear if there is a specific spot where he could have aggravated his forearm that led to his removal from the game.
If the injury isn't bothering Soto when he hits, he theoretically could stay in the AL-leading Yankees lineup as a designated hitter.
The problem? That spot is usually manned by slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who has been injury-prone in the past and is certainly risky to play in the field. For now, the Yankees and their fans -- and Soto bettors -- are hoping for some positive news about his injury in the coming days.
I think this helps Judge's MVP case the most, as the Yankees would rely even more on the 2022 AL MVP if Soto can't play for any period.
Judge has finished in the top five in MVP voting in three different seasons in his MLB career.
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The year following a breakout postseason appearance, the 2016 Chicago Cubs won the World Series with six starting position players aged 26 and younger. Eight years later, the Baltimore Orioles, in the year following a breakout postseason appearance, will have five or six starting position players aged 26 and younger once Jackson Holliday returns from his minor league sabbatical with his confidence restored.
Both teams went through deep rebuilds. Both teams built their core by using high draft picks on position players, not pitchers, especially out of college. Both teams had Brandon Hyde on the staff—as a coach with the Cubs and as manager with the Orioles.
One piece of symmetry remains to complete the picture. Like the Cubs, who traded future All-Star Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman, Baltimore must trade from its positional surplus to add a power arm to the bullpen. As then Cubs GM Theo Epstein said when he made the deal even with a 7 ½ game lead on July 25, “If not now, when?” The mission had grown from just making the playoffs to ending a massive World Series drought.
“We don’t win the World Series without Chappy,” former Cubs manager Joe Maddon says.
The Orioles, who last won the World Series in 1983, are in the same position. Taking Holliday off the table, Baltimore can put top prospects Samuel Basallo, Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad in play to get a lockdown late inning arm such as Mason Miller of Oakland or Jhoan Duran of Minnesota. The point is that like the 2016 Cubs, the 2024 Orioles are a world championship-caliber team with an obvious need and obvious surplus.
“The teams have different personalities,” Hyde says. “That Cubs team had a lot of young players and a lot of older players with almost nothing in between. [David] Ross, [John] Lackey, [Ben] Zobrist, Miguel Montero … like fatherly figures to the young guys. But in terms of the everyday players, the talent, the athleticism, the expectations they have for themselves, they are very, very similar.”
Says Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo, a member of those 2016 Cubs, “They’re a really, really good team that probably is going to add pitching. It’s a long season. I know we play them in the last week of September. And I expect those games are going to be very meaningful.”
With John Means and Kyle Bradish returning to the rotation this week, starting pitching is less of a priority than an elite closer, given health and command issues of Craig Kimbrel, the closer who turns 36 this month and has a 6.75 ERA in his past 10 postseason games.
Righthander Grayson Rodriguez is the wild card in the rotation. He went on the IL this week with shoulder soreness, an injury that was not a surprise given the innings jump Baltimore heaped on him last year at age 23 (+62 from his previous high), his mechanics and his elite velocity. Of the 21 starting pitchers to average 96.5 MPH or more from 2019 to ’23, Rodriguez is the 19th to break down. The only elite velocity throwers to escape the IL are Luis Castillo and Cole Ragans.
Rodriguez has the arm to be a potential front of the rotation pitcher and a difference maker in the postseason. He needs more development to get there. He needs to improve his fastball command so that he can spot a fastball when he needs to (he can’t do that now), he needs to improve his hand/wrist placement and release on his four-seamer so that he creates more ride than run and he needs to improve the timing of his delivery.
One Orioles source says Rodriguez “was gassed” by the time he reached the postseason. He gave up five runs on six hits in less than two innings against Texas in the ALCS. The attrition then and into this season shows in the data. With each month, Rodriguez’s release point and velocity have been dropping:
Rodriguez's vertical release point and velocity.
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The left is Rodriguez pitching in April 2023 and the right is Rodriguez in April 2024.
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Rodriguez has a bit of funk to his delivery, which is not advantageous to a power pitcher because of the extra torque elite velocity puts on the arm. He pulls his arm stiffly behind him, pulling the ball past parallel, and does not have the ball raised with his arm in a 90-degree angle when his front foot lands, which often creates stress that first shows in the shoulder. Here’s a look at those key points in his delivery this week against the New York Yankees:
A look at Rodriguez's form while pitching against the Yankees in April 2024.
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Here is teammate Corbin Burnes at those same points. Note on the left the arm position on his takeaway, as the arm is not past parallel and the elbow has begun to bend to raise the ball. On the right, the arm is at a 90-degree angle as the front foot lands.
A look at Burnes's form at the same crucial points.
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For all the talk about Rodriguez’s elite velocity, he does not pitch like a true power pitcher. His changeup and curveball are outstanding. When he needs to get back into a count or rely on a pitch in a big spot, he’s going to rely on his secondary staff. That’s a gift for such a young pitcher. But the numbers show his fastball gets hit:
Rodriguez by Pitch Type, Career
Rodriguez by pitch type in his career.
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Over the past two years, 25 pitchers have allowed a .300 average or higher on at least 500 four-seamers. Rodriguez is the only one who throws 97. Among the 27 pitchers who average 96.5 and higher, Rodriguez’s .340 average allowed is 51 points higher than anybody else.
His fastball ranks in the 87th percentile in velocity this year but only in the 52nd percentile when it comes to run value. Why does such an elite velocity fastball rate as mediocre? Start with his spin rate. It is slightly below average (2,256 RPM; average is 2,288).
Another issue is the way Rodriguez’s fastball comes out of his hand. A four-seam fastball with elite ride has close to true north-south underspin to better fight gravity, causing the pitch to sink less than a hitter expects. Rodriguez’s fastball because of his hand position comes out with arm-side run. It has average drop (a measurement of “ride”) but extreme horizontal movement (“run”). A four-seamer with run is easier to hit than one with ride because it tends to stay on the same plane as the bat path rather than over it.
Rodriguez Fastball Movement
Drop: 12.9 inches; vs. Avg.: 2% Horizontal: 11.7 inches; vs. Avg.: 60%
If Rodriguez can trade run for ride, he will have an elite north-south combination with a top-of-the-zone fastball and devastating changeup. His ceiling is extremely high.
The good news for Baltimore is it appears Rodriguez may be suffering only from fatigue rather than a structural issue. He is expected to be shut down for two to three weeks. Starting May 17, the Orioles face 43 games in 45 days. Assuming Rodriguez returns for that stretch, they will deploy a six-man rotation through that grind, just as they did last August.
“The six-man rotation last August saved our season,” Hyde says.
Like the 2016 Cubs, the Orioles are built to play seven full months. The six-man rotation is just one strategy designed to prepare for October. Another is a firm pitch limit on starting pitchers. The Orioles are adamant about getting their starter out as he approaches 100 pitches, no matter their age or experience or game situation. Dean Kramer and Rodriguez were pulled in the middle of an inning with 101 pitches and Burnes once at 100. That’s as far as any Baltimore starter has been allowed to go.
Rizzo is right to expect a close race. The Orioles and Yankees are not likely to be separated by more than three games when they meet in the last week of the season. By then, the Orioles hope to have a rotation with gas left in the tank and an additional power arm at the back of their bullpen.
