The Denver Broncos bet the future of their franchise on former Oregon quarterback Bo Nix in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft. Despite Nix being older than your average quarterback prospect, and some less-than-stellar statistical trends throughout his college career, the Broncos took him at No. 12 and he will almost certaintly be the team’s starter come Week 1 in September. And apparently, should you ask one NFL legend, they made the right call.
Adam Schefter revealed on his podcast this week that the Broncos spoke to Philip Rivers about Nix and fellow quarterback prospect Drake Maye, both of whom worked out with Rivers during the predraft process. Rivers liked Maye, according to Schefter, but he loved Nix and told Denver as much.
That little tidbit at the end about Payton feeling as strongly about Nix as he did Patrick Mahomes ahead of the 2017 NFL draft is something we’ll be hearing a lot about. All I’ll say is that it’s very easy to sit here seven years after the fact and tell everyone who will listen that you were absolutely sure Mahomes was going to be a star before everyone else.
Regardless, Rivers’ endorsement is notable, both as a former quarterback and a current coach. The longtime Chargers signal caller has spent his years in retirement as the head coach of St. Michael’s Catholic High School’s football team in Fairhope, Ala. There’s no guarantee he’ll end up right, of course, but at least he’s got a bit more pedigree working for him than many of the other former players the football world hears from this time of year.
The Broncos were never going to be in a position to draft Maye unless they mortgage the near and far future, so there won’t be much to regret if the North Carolina product proves to be superior to Nix. But should Rivers prove correct, Denver will have their first homegrown franchise quarterback in many years.
In the 2024 NFL draft, there were 257 players selected.
Some are going to become solid role players. Others will make a Pro Bowl or two. Then there are the select stars who become perennial Pro Bowlers and even see some All-Pro teams. Finally, a couple will be fitted for gold jackets in Canton.
Unfortunately, there’s the opposite reality as well. For every star, there will be 20 players who don’t make an impact. Of those, many will be late-round fliers. But a few will come from the first few rounds, players expected to make a difference only to fade into football oblivion.
So which of the AFC picks surrounded by hype could be cautionary tales in the coming years? It’s time to take a hard look at not only the player but the team and situation, along with potential pitfalls out of their control.
5. Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
Why he’ll be a bust: To be clear, Maye has a very good chance of succeeding. He has all the tools. This is more about the situation around him, and the pressure on Maye because of the past few years under Bill Belichick.
Maye is going to a team with a first-year, defensive-minded head coach in Jerod Mayo. He’s also entering a roster which doesn’t have a proven, star weapon on the outside. It’s a big ask of Maye, although it’s not impossible. Want proof? Look at C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans.
4. Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills
Why he’ll be a bust: Coleman is a massive receiver. At the combine, the Florida State product checked in at 6'3"and 213 pounds. With the Seminoles in 2023, he was the top receiver for a team which almost made the College Football Playoff.
The problems, though, are evident. He struggled to separate against college corners, largely because of his 4.6 speed. And his contested catch rate was 33% last season despite a size advantage on almost every snap. For the Bills, this is a gamble on measurables and Josh Allen. Fair enough, but the bust potential is there.
3. Amarius Mims, OT, Cincinnati Bengals
Mims started only eight games in college.
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Why he’ll be a bust: Mims might be the biggest wild card in this class. On tape, he’s an absolute monster in both the run and pass game, dominating edge defenders with considerable ease. Also, at 6'8"and 340 pounds, the size is unquestionable.
However, Mims started only eight games in college, and injuries were a consistent concern, too. The Bengals are banking on him finally staying healthy and reaching his potential, which is becoming an All-Pro talent. For Cincinnati, which has struggled to field a quality offensive line in front of Joe Burrow, it’s an understandable risk.
2. T’Vondre Sweat, DT, Tennessee Titans
Why he’ll be a bust: Sweat is powerful as a defensive tackle who can get up the field and destroy blockers at times. The problem? He wasn’t always that guy. At Texas, Sweat played in 51 games and totaled just 17.5 tackles for loss and five sacks.
Additionally, there are questions about Sweat away from the field. In early April, he was arrested on suspicion of DWI. Tennessee took a chance on him anyway as a second-round pick despite some believing he shouldn’t come off the board until Day 3. It’s a risky move at a position that wasn’t a huge need, considering Tennessee already has Jeffrey Simmons inside.
1. Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
Why he’ll be a bust: Nix has a few things going against him. First, the Broncos are terrible around him. One could argue they have the worst roster in the NFL, including a leaky offensive line and a weapons group that has Courtland Sutton and not much else.
But the problems aren’t only about the supporting cast. Denver is also taking a chance on a kid who struggled mightily at Auburn, leading to his transfer. When playing within a pro-style offense with the Tigers for three seasons, Nix completed less than 60 percent of his attempts. Finally, he’s 24 years old. Has he already hit his ceiling?
Zach Wilson is currently listed as the Denver Broncos' third-string quarterback on the depth chart behind rookie Bo Nix and returning backup Jarrett Stidham.
However, the former New York Jets quarterback is reportedly "in the mix" for being named QB1 before the 2024 season, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. Coach Sean Payton hasn't explicitly named a starting quarterback for the upcoming season, so this offseason is giving the three quarterbacks a chance at a competition for the top role.
"They're trying to regain his confidence again," Fowler said. "I'm told he's in a positive state of mind."
Wilson's been a starting quarterback in all three of his NFL seasons thus far, although the Jets benched him at some point during the season in all three years. He's gone 12–21 in games he's started in his career. The former No. 2 pick was traded to the Broncos back in April.
Nix, who was selected No. 12 overall out of Oregon, is seen as the favorite to earn the starting job, at least off the bat. Stidham started two games last season for the Broncos and won one of the contests.
