Fantasy managers will never forget the impressive rookie season from Tank Dell, whose campaign was cut short by a broken leg in December. After watching highlight reel and highlight reel of CJ Stroud connecting with the third-round pick out of Houston, it was heartbreaking to see Dell carted off the field during the December 9th game vs. the Broncos as the Texans were making a surprising playoff push.
Luckily for Texans fans, Houston still grabbed that playoff berth.
Before exiting with the injury, Dell had bested WR Nico Collins in multiple essential metrics. Dell led the team with a 22.5% target share vs. Collins’ 22.1%, and he had a significant advantage in air yards share: 35.9% vs. 25.3%. On a fantasy points-per-game basis, Dell averaged 18.7 points per game compared to Collins’ 18.1.
Dell was one of the season’s most successful waiver wire pickups until that injury occurred.
Dell was nearly fully recovered from his leg injury when he sustained another freak leg injury last month – this time from a bullet wound at a bar shooting in Florida. Luckily, in Dell’s own words, this was a “wrong place at the wrong time” injury that was not severe.
However, the good news is that Dell was a full participant in all OTAs for the Texans just three weeks after his gunshot wound, and all reports are that he returned at high speed.
Fantasy managers should feel safe betting on the health and talent of Tank Dell despite the crowded receiver room in Houston. The Texans offense is sure to be high-powered with Dell, Collins, and the newly acquired veteran Stefon Diggs, not to mention tight end Dalton Schultz, who just signed a fresh three-year contract. However, Dell was drafted by the Texans at Stroud’s request, and their chemistry is undeniable.
Dell’s 107 targeted air yards per game was more than CeeDee Lamb in 2023, and his 70.9 receiving yards per game was more than Chris Olave and Amari Cooper. He was also a touchdown machine, averaging .7 scores per game, trailing only Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill. Dell is coming off the board as the WR37 well after Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. I’m taking Dell at that value every day of the week.
The 2024 NFL season is fast approaching, so it’s time to look at fantasy positional “tiers.” Unlike my PPR player rankings, tiers group players of similar value. So, if you miss out on a particular player on a tier in your draft, you can see others on that same tier who are good alternatives to pick.
I’ve covered quarterbacks and running backs, so now let’s look at wide receivers. This is now the most important position in fantasy football, especially in leagues that award points for receptions. It’s also the deepest position, as more teams have leaned on the pass attack in recent seasons. We’ve also seen a lot of wide receivers come out of the collegiate ranks and make an immediate impact (many of whom you’ll see in the first several tiers).
Tier 1 – The Elite
CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys Tyreek Hill, Dolphins Justin Jefferson, Vikings Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals
Lamb moved past Hill and Jefferson as the top wideout in fantasy football after a career 2023 season that saw him post 403.2 points. Hill, the WR2 last season, remains a close second. Jefferson remains in my top three, but the loss of Kirk Cousins brings at least some questions due to the state of the Vikings quarterback situation. He’ll be catching passes from either rookie J.J. McCarthy or journeyman Sam Darnold. St. Brown is locked in as a top-five wideout, and Chase remains among the elite with a healthy Joe Burrow in Cincinnati.
Brown finished fifth in fantasy points among wideouts last season, but he faded down the stretch. Still, he’ll be a first-round selection in most drafts. Nacua, who came out of nowhere to rank fourth in points among wideouts, will be a top-24 overall pick. You must wonder if he can duplicate such a magical season, however, especially if Cooper Kupp can avoid injuries. Wilson is a popular breakout candidate, as he’ll have Aaron Rodgers under center. I am very high on Harrison Jr. coming into his rookie season, which is obvious as I have him listed as a potential low-WR1. He'll be a top-36 pick.
Tier 3 – Low WR1s
Davante Adams, Raiders Chris Olave, Saints Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers Drake London, Falcons Mike Evans, Buccaneers Michael Pittman Jr., Colts
Adams was inconsistent in the stat sheets last year but still finished in the top 10. Olave should post a career season with Michael Thomas off the roster, and Aiyuk should build on his impressive 2023 season. He’s also entering a contract year. This tier includes four players who could push for WR1 value. London is a popular breakout candidate with Kirk Cousins now under center in Atlanta. Evans was the WR7 a season ago, and he’s shown no signs of slowing down. Pittman Jr. should remain the Colts' No. 1 wideout, and his numbers were solid in games started by Anthony Richardson last season.
Tier 4 – High WR2s
DK Metcalf, Seahawks Nico Collins, Texans Deebo Samuel Sr., 49ers DJ Moore, Bears
The Seahawks passing game should benefit from hiring Ryan Grubb as their new offensive coordinator, which is good news for Metcalf. This tier also includes Collins ahead of Stefon Diggs, as he has a rapport with C.J. Stroud. Samuel Sr., coming off a WR15 finish, should be a fine No. 2 wideout. As for Moore, he will struggle to duplicate his high-end numbers from last season after the Bears traded for Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze. He’ll drop from a mid-level No. 1 wideout to a No. 2 option.
Diggs can no longer be considered an elite fantasy option, as he'll compete with Collins and Tank Dell for targets. Still, he should finish in the WR2 range in what should be an explosive pass attack. Waddle and Smith are both in high-octane offenses and will be attractive WR2s in fantasy leagues. Nabers should be a target hero as a rookie in New York if his quarterbacks can get him the football. There's high-end WR2 potential in him.
Tier 6 – Low WR2s
Cooper Kupp, Rams Amari Cooper, Browns Terry McLaurin, Commanders Christian Kirk, Jaguars
Kupp has missed parts of the last two seasons due to injuries and is now entering his age-31 season, so he’s fallen to the WR2/WR3 range as a result. Cooper averaged a solid 15.3 PPR points in his 15 games last season, and he should remain the top option in the Browns pass attack even with the addition of Jerry Jeudy during the offseason. McLaurin should emerge as the first option in the passing game for rookie Jayden Daniels. Kirk will be the first receiving option with Calvin Ridley no longer in the Jaguars offense.
There is real upside in this tier as Flowers, McConkey and Higgins could push for WR2 value. Flowers should build on a good rookie season, and McConkey has a shot to lead all Chargers wideouts in targets. He’ll be a popular sleeper option in drafts. Higgins had a subpar 2023 but will be motivated to rebound in a contract year. Pickens and Reed could both break out as the projected top receivers for their respective teams. Allen, whose stock fell after being traded to the Bears, is now a flex option. The same holds true for Dell, who looked terrific as a rookie but will lose opportunities to Diggs.
Ridley, who finished 18th among wideouts last season, is now in an offense with an unproven quarterback in Will Levis and will have to compete with DeAndre Hopkins. Johnson will be the top target for Bryce Young in Carolina, so I can see him averaging 12-13 points per game. Brown could be a bargain for managers if he opens the season as the top wideout in Kansas City. I have his new teammate, Rice in his tier, but I have no idea what sort of suspension he’ll face for his off-field problems. Sutton, who remains the clear top wideout in Denver, and the veteran Godwin should both be on the low WR3 radar.
There’s plenty of upside in Tier 10, but some questions too. Addison would be ranked higher if it weren’t for the quarterback questions in Minnesota, and Hopkins will contend with Ridley for targets in Tennessee. I like Smith-Njigba as a potential sleeper/breakout in his second season, but Lockett remains a big part of Seattle's offense. Williams, who will see a bigger role in Detroit this season, should post career numbers. He has sleeper/breakout appeal.
Tier 10 – High WR4s
Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars Keon Coleman, Bills Xavier Worthy, Chiefs Rome Odunze, Bears Christian Watson, Packers
We can call this the rookie tier, as it includes Thomas Jr., Coleman, Worthy and Odunze. All four have a chance to play prominent roles for their respective teams. Odunze, who will have to compete with Moore and Allen for targets in Chicago, might have the lowest ceiling of the quartet. Watson is hard to trust because of last season's injury woes, but he could also be a bargain.
Tier 11 – Mid WR4s
Adam Thielen, Panthers Mike Williams, Jets Jakobi Meyers, Raiders Curtis Samuel, Bills Brandin Cooks, Cowboys
Thielen and Williams will be no better than the second-best options in the passing games of their respective teams. Meyers might have hit his ceiling last season when he finished as the WR24, but he's still worth a late look. Samuel has some sleeper appeal in Buffalo, and Cooks will be a matchup-based option in what figures to be a highly productive Cowboys passing game.
Tier 12 – Low WR4s
Gabe Davis, Jaguars Jerry Jeudy, Browns Josh Downs, Colts DeMario Douglas, Patriots Josh Palmer, Chargers
There are a lot of recognizable names, but none of them come with target guarantees. Davis will have to compete with Thomas Jr. for a starting job in Jacksonville, and Jeudy will be the second or third option in the Browns passing game. Downs and Douglas have some deep sleeper appeal.
The evolution of fantasy football has seen the wide receiver position take on added value in recent seasons. It’s obvious in early average draft position (ADP) data, as seven of the top 10 overall players being picked in 2024 drafts are wideouts. This, of course, has increased the value (and craze) at the position. That does beg the question, however: how much is too much? After all, there’s just one football right? There’s only so many targets a team can spread around, so sometimes true value comes down to simple math.
This is important when we look at NFL teams that have multiple wide receivers who are projected to make a fantasy impact. Heading into 2024, there are several teams with what I would call a talented but crowded receivers’ room that comes with fantasy question marks.
The first team that comes to mind is the Houston Texans, who have Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell all ranked in the top 36. The Chicago Bears are in the same boat, as the team features DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. The Seattle Seahawks also have three solid receivers in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and the Miami Dolphins added Odell Beckham Jr. to incumbents Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
There is no shortage of other teams that have three or more receivers who will compete for targets in training camp and the preseason, too. The Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and New England Patriots all fall into this category.
That’s going to bring a lot of speculation as to who will earn the most targets and ultimately, make the biggest fantasy impact. But looking at the past (as you know I love to do), I found that more often than not, it can be almost impossible for an offense to boast two or more consistently productive wide receivers at the same time and in the same season.
In fact, you’ll be shocked at the data I found over the last 20 years.
In order for a receiver to qualify, he had to average at least 14 PPR points per game (low-WR2 level in 2023) and play in at least eight games in any given season. First, let’s take a look at the offenses that have fielded three receivers who have scored at least 14 points during the same statistical campaign.
Notes: Season-long points-per-game averages and finishes among WRs are listed first. When one or more WRs played in less than a full season, the points-per-game averages in games where all three were active is listed under “ALL.”
2013 Denver Broncos Demaryius Thomas 18.2 (WR1) – ALL 19.4 Eric Decker 16.8 (WR9) – ALL 16.7 Wes Welker 16.1 (WR21 – 13 games) – ALL 16
2018 Los Angeles Rams Cooper Kupp 16.9 (WR51 – 8 games) – ALL 16.1 Robert Woods 16.6 (WR11) – ALL 16.4 Brandin Cooks 15.2 (WR13) – ALL 19.8
2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Chris Godwin 15.9 (WR31 - 12 games) – ALL 15.8 Mike Evans 15.5 (WR11) – ALL 17.4 Antonio Brown 14.6 (WR65 - 8 games) – ALL 14.6
2020 Carolina Panthers Curtis Samuel 14.1 (WR27 - 15 games) – ALL 14.1 DJ Moore 14.1 (WR28 - 15 games) – ALL 14.1 Robbie Anderson 14.0 (WR29) – ALL 13.4
There were just five teams over 20 years of data encompassing 32 NFL teams (or 640 opportunities) where an offense fielded three receivers who averaged at least 14 points. In three of those cases, it took all-time great quarterbacks (Peyton Manning – 2004, 2013 and Tom Brady – 2020) to accomplish this feat. And, in the case of the 2020 Panthers, none of their three wide receivers who scored at least 14 points finished higher than WR27.
So, even with the talent on their rosters, this trend doesn’t bode well for the Texans, Bears, Seahawks (and to a lesser degree, the Dolphins) of boasting three receivers who are regular fantasy starters. Digging a bit deeper, 14 of the 32 teams have failed to produce more than two seasons where its offense has had two wideouts averaging more than 14 points in the same calendar year.
Here’s a look at each team and the number of seasons it’s had at least two wide receivers averaging 14 or more fantasy points (eight games min.).
Six Seasons: Steelers
Five Seasons: Bengals, Broncos, Cardinals, Falcons, Packers, Vikings
No Seasons: Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Commanders, Ravens
Some of these results aren’t surprising, as the Steelers had Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson. The Falcons have fielded great likes Julio Jones, Roddy White and Calvin Ridley (maybe Drake London joins the list), and the Bengals have had Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Terrell Owens, A.J. Green, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Broncos have also had five seasons with multiple wideouts at 14 or more points, but that hasn’t happened since 2018.
What’s surprising is the bottom half, where the Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Commanders, and Ravens have never had two receivers averaging 14 or more points. Keep that in the back of your mind when you’re drafting Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Jerry Jeudy, Xavier Worthy, Jahan Dotson and anyone in Baltimore not named Zay Flowers (and he didn’t average 14 points per game last season). Sorry, all of you Rashod Bateman truthers!
The data that I’ve compiled tells a story that in most cases (since 2004), an NFL team can’t support three wideouts who average at least 14 points a game.
Taking that a step further, 44 percent of teams have had one or fewer such wideouts in a single season in the last 20 years. So, in the cases of teams like the Bills, Panthers, Browns, Packers, Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers, and Patriots, all of whom have major depth chart questions among their wideouts, I wouldn’t expect to find more than one receiver on each team that becomes a reliable and productive fantasy starter for the entire season.
The 2024 NFL season is fast approaching, so it’s time to look at fantasy positional “tiers.” Unlike my PPR player rankings, tiers group players of similar value. So, if you miss out on a particular player on a tier in your draft, you can see others on that same tier who are good alternatives to select.
I’ve covered quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers, and you can read about all three by clicking the links above, so now it’s time to look at the tight ends. This is probably the least important position in fantasy football, so most managers will wait to fill it rather than take one of the top-end options. As a result, tiers will be uber valuable.
Tier 1 – The Elite
Sam LaPorta, Lions Travis Kelce, Chiefs Mark Andrews, Ravens Trey McBride, Cardinals
This is the first time in years that Kelce isn’t either in his own tier or the top player at tight end. That’s due to a “down” statistical year by his high standards, coupled with LaPorta’s breakout and the fact that Kelce is entering his age-35 season. Andrews should remain a top-five option, and I’ve also included McBride in this tier. He finished seventh in points last season, and that came despite seeing just 10 targets in his first five games. He’s a big breakout candidate.
Kincaid, like McBride, showed flashes of potential last season and is in a great position to bust out in the stat sheets. Kittle’s points-per-game averages have dropped each of the last six years, but he’s still a surefire top-10 option. Engram, last season’s third-best tight end, could see some regression but remains a starter in fantasy leagues. Could this finally be the year we see Pitts reach his fantasy potential? With Kirk Cousins at the helm, he hasn’t had this good of a chance to be a fantasy asset since he joined the league.
Njoku had a career-best season, but his numbers were far better with Joe Flacco under center than Deshaun Watson. That could be a concern. Ferguson continued the trend of Cowboys tight ends making a fantasy impact, posting a top-10 finish. Bowers is one of the best tight-end prospects to come out of college since Pitts, so he’ll be a popular sleeper even as a rookie. Goedert’s stats have decreased lately, but he’s still a viable fantasy starter.
Tier 4 – High TE2s
Dalton Schultz, Texans Pat Freiermuth, Steelers Cole Kmet, Bears
This is where the tight-end position starts to fade in terms of reliable options. Schultz was the TE10 last season, but you must wonder how much Stefon Diggs will eat into his targets. Freiermuth was a fantasy dud last season, but I’m expecting him to rebound, at least at some level, with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Kmet, last season’s TE8, will struggle to regain that level after the Bears added Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and Gerald Everett.
Tier 5 – Mid TE2s
Hunter Henry, Patriots Luke Musgrave, Packers T.J. Hockenson, Vikings Taysom Hill, Saints Cade Otton, Buccaneers
This tier includes two sleepers in Musgrave and Otton, while Henry and Hill (it’s not a Goodfellas reference) will be matchup-based starters in most leagues. Hockenson is the most difficult player to project. He’s established himself as an elite player and would be in Tier 1 had he not suffered a late-season ACL tear. With no real timetable for when he’ll be back, Hockenson is tough to recommend as more than a risk-reward, No. 2 tight end.
Tier 6 – Low TE2s
Daniel Bellinger, Giants Chigoziem Okonkwo, Titans Ben Sinnott, Commanders Juwan Johnson, Saints Tyler Conklin, Jets
There are some deep sleepers in this tier, including Bellinger, Sinnott and Johnson. You could also throw Okonkwo into that category, though target share could be an issue with Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks and Tyler Boyd all in the Titans' offense. Sinnott will have to contend with Zach Ertz, but the rookie has great upside and is worth a late flier. Johnson, who showed flashes of potential late last year, could also outplay his draft position.
There are a number of players who have had past fantasy success in this tier, but there’s not a whole lot of upside. Higbee is coming off an injury, so his stock has taken a nosedive. Gesicki is in a crowded Bengals pass attack. Hurst hasn't been a fantasy-relevant player in several seasons. Ertz could be limited in Washington’s offense with Sinnott on the roster. Fant is a matchup-based option at best.
Fantasy managers in deeper leagues could be looking at this group as late-round flies, but in reality there’s not a ton of value. Smith is a strong pass catcher, but the Dolphins offense doesn’t feature the tight end. Likely’s value is limited with Mark Andrews ahead of him on the Baltimore depth chart. Green Bay is loaded with good, young weapons, which will hurt the value of Kraft, who I have behind his teammate Musgrave in the rankings. Woods could be a worthwhile, deep-league flier, while Oliver could have some appeal in Minnesota while T.J. Hockenson is recovering from a torn ACL.