Ohio State has its normal wardrobe that rarely deviates. Then it makes the College Football Playoff and gets to dress up as an underdog. This is the Buckeyes’ Halloween, the one time when they can step out of Big Ten behemoth character.
They have been favored in 98 of their last 104 games. The only exceptions have been Playoff games: Alabama and Oregon in 2014; Clemson in ’19; Clemson and Alabama in ’20; and now against Georgia in the Peach Bowl semifinal.
Ohio State has been pretty good in that rare role, winning three times and losing twice, with a 2014 national championship as part of its underdog body of work. And if there is any scenario from that Playoff past that it would love to replicate in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium Saturday night, the ’14 semifinal upset of Alabama is it.
Can Ryan Day notch the biggest win of his career on Saturday?
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In that game, the No. 4 seed Buckeyes were a controversial Playoff inclusion, vaulting into the bracket over TCU, which had been third in the previous CFP rankings. The Bucks were a touchdown underdog going into the belly of the Southeastern Conference beast, taking on top-seeded Alabama in a dome in New Orleans. They emerged with a stunning, 42–35 victory, on their way to the national championship.
Here, Ohio State again is a No. 4 seed—and again had some critics of its inclusion in the Playoff, coming off a 22-point home beatdown against Michigan. The Buckeyes are a 6½-point underdog this time around against an SEC favorite, playing in a dome in SEC country. Can they repeat the upset script?
They certainly don’t have an Ezekiel Elliott this time around. Elliott ran for 230 yards against the Crimson Tide, including the memorable “85 yards through the heart of the South” touchdown run to seal the victory. Elliott put the Buckeyes on his back in that postseason, rushing for a combined 696 yards in the Big Ten championship game and the two Playoff contests.
But this version of Ohio State, much like that one, is not trying to overcome any sort of talent deficit. The Buckeyes have dudes, with three straight top-five recruiting classes from 2020 to ’22 and NFL prospects all over the depth chart. The whole underdog thing is a dress-up deception.
“I can’t speak for everyone, but for me personally, I don’t feel like underdogs,” receiver Emeka Egbuka said. “There’s never been a time where I stepped on the field that I felt a severe disadvantage to a player across from me.”
In case anyone forgot, Ohio State was ranked ahead of Georgia when the season began—the Buckeyes were No. 2, while the reigning national champion Bulldogs were No. 3. Making the Playoff was very much an expectation for this team from the very start.
“I feel like we’re still Ohio State,” quarterback C.J. Stroud said Tuesday. “We’re still the Buckeyes. Georgia is Georgia for a reason. … I don’t want to say that I feel like the underdog. I don’t feel like—I do feel like they are counting us out. That’s fine.”
Ohio State’s credibility hit came in that Michigan game, when the Buckeyes squandered early opportunities for a big lead and then crumpled in the second half. Their defense gave up huge plays. Their offense malfunctioned at key moments. And by the fourth quarter, they looked like a defeated team that was waiting for the clock to run out.
That’s a powerful—and damning—final impression. It led to the worst four-letter words in football being attached to the Buckeyes: soft.
Ohio State’s entire offseason had been focused on reestablishing its fortitude after being punked in Ann Arbor in 2021: new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles was paid a massive sum to toughen up that unit, and an emphasis was placed on being able to run the ball in difficult situations. For 11 games, there was belief that significant progress had been made—then they played the 12th.
Michigan’s 45 points were the most it had scored against the Buckeyes since 1946. The 22-point margin of victory was the Wolverines’ largest in the series since ’46, as well. Among the things Michigan took from its hated rival that day in the Horseshoe: the Big Ten East Division title, the Big Ten title, a chunk of coach Ryan Day’s popularity, Stroud’s shot at winning the Heisman Trophy, some of Knowles’s schematic reputation, and the veneer of Ohio State being a tougher team.
Now the Buckeyes have to prove it all over again, against a team that is even more physically imposing than Michigan. Remember, Georgia toyed with the Wolverines in last year’s Playoff semifinal, romping to a 34–11 victory. The Bulldogs repeatedly dominated the point of attack in that game, much the way Michigan had against Ohio State. Every team and season is different, but handling Georgia’s physical nature is the most problematic part of this equation for the Buckeyes.
Their best hope is probably for this game to turn into a track meet, and Ohio State has the weapons for that kind of game. There were some questions for the Buckeyes about potentially unleashing their offense in the pristine indoor conditions here, but the fact remains that weather played no role at all in the Michigan debacle. It was a warm, sunny day in Columbus.
Bottom line: Whoever wins here Saturday figures to light the scoreboard rather frequently. In the eight-year CFP era, the winning team in the national championship has scored 33 or more points seven times; the winning teams in the semifinals have scored 31 or more 12 times.
“When you’re going to play in these games, you’ve got to score five or six touchdowns to have a chance,” Buckeyes offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson said. “You don’t win 17–13. If you’re going to be a championship team, we’ll see if we can do that.”
Making the Playoff, of course, carries with it the chance to win a national title—the ultimate goal. But it also carries with it the specter of bitter defeat. Opportunity meets risk.
For Ohio State, this is the chance to score its biggest victory of the post–Urban Meyer era while keeping championship hopes alive. (Routing Clemson in 2020 was exhilarating, but it also was followed by a date with an Alabama juggernaut that went even worse than expected.) It’s also possible that the Buckeyes will end the season with a second straight physical beating that further impugns their fortitude. There is a lot to win—and a lot to lose.
“It’s a prideful, prideful group,” Wilson said of the Buckeyes. “Prideful program.”
Wearing their Playoff underdog outfit, Ohio State’s considerable pride is on the line Saturday.
