The 2024 NFL season is still a few months out, but there’s plenty of offseason content to look forward to for the famished fanbase. Among those is the annual edition of HBO’s Hard Knocks, for which the participating team was revealed on Wednesday.
This fall, it will be the Chicago Bears taking center stage as the focus of the 2024 season of Hard Knocks, giving fans a behind-the-scenes look at one of the most intriguing rosters in the league as they look to start a new chapter with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.
Hard Knocks will give fans an exclusive look into the Bears’ training camp and grant access to some unique footage as the team goes through its preparations for the regular season, including inside looks at roster cuts, team meetings, practices and more.
Chicago’s revamped offense features a plethora of new faces, as well as some returning ones. D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet figure to play prominent roles as weapons for Williams in his rookie campaign, and he’ll also have newcomers such as rookie wideout Rome Odunze and veteran receiver Keenan Allen to throw to as well.
Only three teams this year were not given the option to reject the opportunity to appear on the show. In addition to the Bears, the Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints also met the league’s requirements, which include: Not having a first-year head coach, not making the playoffs in each of the past two seasons and not having featured on Hard Knocks in the past decade.
The 2024 edition of the popular series has not been given an official release date just yet, though it’s set to be available for streaming on Max in the near future.
Now that the dust has settled from the NFL draft, it's time to examine some early futures markets and see where we can find value. Passing props have been released for several rookie signal-callers, giving us some insight into how Las Vegas values NFL freshmen.
Today, we kick off a new series, "Bet This, Not That." Use these articles as a guide for being creative and finding value when placing your wagers.
Regarding futures bets, weighing the payout vs. the time you'll tie up your bankroll is wise. Generally, I don't bet on season-long totals because that value is hard to find. But sometimes, there is a way to find value, or at least to get "hints" where you can find values in other markets. You can even use these markets as a good cheat sheet for how high to draft a player in your fantasy football drafts.
Let's look at the early futures markets for Bears QB Caleb Williams, the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. All odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams at the NFL draft.
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Passing Yards: Over 3500.5 (-110) | Under 3500.5 (-110)
Passing TDs: Over 23.5 (-105) | Under 23.5 (-120)
First, let's start with some recent and historical trends:
Only 13 rookie quarterbacks have passed for more than 3,500 yards since 1970. Nine of those quarterbacks debuted in the last 10 seasons.
In 2023, rookie C.J. Stroud passed for 4,108 yards, ranking third behind Justin Herbert (4,336) and Andrew Luck (4,374). All three passers won Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Justin Herbert's 31 passing touchdowns as a rookie in 2020 remains the most of all time.
Only five rookie passers since 1970 have tossed 24+ touchdowns in their debut season, one of which was Daniel Jones.
Based on these historical facts, Las Vegas is high on Williams according to the opening market for his season-long stats.
The Bears have created a dream situation for the rookie signal-caller. Williams has two elite veteran wideouts in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, not to mention a solid pass-catching tight end in Cole Kmet and a pass-catching running back in D'Andre Swift. The Bears also added All-American wideout Rome Odunze out of Washington with their ninth pick in the NFL draft.
The Bears' defense is improving, the O-line should provide ample pass protection, and new OC Shane Waldron has a reputation for getting the most out of his quarterbacks. The Heisman winner out of USC has everything going in his favor.
However, it's also worth noting no Chicago Bears rookie has ever come close to these numbers. In fact, only two Bears quarterbacks have surpassed 3,500 passing yards: Jay Cutler (2009, 2014, 2015) and Erik Kramer (1995). No Bears QB has passed for more than 3,900 yards in the franchise's history.
So, will Caleb Williams set new standards in Chicago? With everything aligning, the Bears are certainly betting on it.
But I'm not.
I'm fading the futures market for Williams, though I will draft him as a QB2 in my fantasy leagues.
If you're high on Williams but want to bet for better value, consider his OROY future, which pays +200 instead. That makes him the favorite for the award, and though it may not be the best overall value for the OROY award, it's a better value than betting the over on his season-long player totals, and it has a chance to cash even if he falls short of his totals. After all, the odds for the Bears to make the playoffs are (-125). I'd rather tie up my bankroll for a chance at the plus-money payout.
Bet This: Williams OROY (+200)
Not That: Williams over 23.5 passing touchdowns (-105)
Welcome to the NFL offseason, where receivers get paid lots of money (just ask Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle and Nico Collins), the NFL continues to push for an 18-game season, the league and NFLPA discuss ways to ruin the offseason calendar and teams continue to go through their OTAs and mandatory minicamps.
So we asked our MMQB staff of NFL experts to answer a series of eight questions over the next two weeks. They debated the worst move Wednesday, so today they’re going to weigh in on the most improved teams.
Let’s get to their answers as we get closer to the NFL taking a break before July training camps.
Matt Verderame: Chicago Bears
The Bears not only added Williams, but added a weapon for him by selecting Odunze with the No. 9 pick / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
The Bears not only added Williams at the sport’s paramount position, but they also traded for veteran receiver Keenan Allen before nabbing wideout Rome Odunze with the No. 9 pick, giving them a duo of talented pass catchers to go with DJ Moore.
With a defense boasting talent at all three levels including edge rusher Montez Sweat, linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards, corner Jaylon Johnson and safety Jaquan Brisker, the Bears have talent in a way they haven’t since the days of Brian Urlacher and Matt Forte.
Should Williams realize his potential, Chicago could challenge for a playoff spot and potentially more in the NFC.
Gilberto Manzano: Washington Commanders
There’s usually one team that goes from last to first most NFL seasons. I’m not saying the Commanders will win the NFC East, but I’m giving them the best odds after finishing 4–13 last season.
Washington has drastically improved in various areas and not just with the roster. There’s optimism in the nation’s capital because Josh Harris replaced Dan Snyder as team owner. And new GM Adam Peters and coach Dan Quinn had a strong first offseason in Washington.
Quinn could quickly build a formidable defense with the many savvy moves Peters made, including the signings of Dorance Armstrong, Frankie Luvu, Bobby Wagner, Jeremy Chinn and many other defenders. And it helps that Quinn already has head coaching experience from his time with the Atlanta Falcons.
I would say the Bears but Matt already jumped on the answer and did a fine job of articulating why. I’ll throw the Giants into the ring for two reasons: Brian Burns changes the calculus of this defense, and I like the combination of Brian Daboll and Drew Lock and am very curious to see if it ends up bearing some Geno Smith-ian fruit for the Giants. While I wasn’t sold on Malik Nabers as the best available wide receiver at that point, I think this team can win between eight to 10 games this year despite not having what one would consider a transformative offseason. The Giants are still low on weapons, but their offensive line will develop (read: has to develop) and this defense is seriously formidable, though I would have liked to have seen a repair in the Wink Martindale–Brian Daboll relationship to the point where Martindale would have gotten to use Burns.
Albert Breer: Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals selected Harrison with the fourth pick in the draft, giving Arizona a playmaker at a premium position. / Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY
I like the Giants and Bears, too, but Arizona has quietly continued to do very logical things to improve its roster, and set up a sustainable future. Moving Paris Johnson Jr. to left tackle, and signing Jonah Williams at a very reasonable price to replace him on the right side made the Cardinals younger, and better at the position. Marvin Harrison Jr. could quickly be among the NFL’s best skill players, and, thus, change the math for the rest of Arizona’s skill group. Top-100 picks Darius Robinson and Max Melton are tough, competitive, program fits at premium positions for the defense.
And, then, there’s Kyler Murray, who really seems to have turned a corner from a leadership standpoint since tearing his ACL two years ago. He’s been in the building and around the team more, while cementing himself as the triggerman for GM Monti Ossenfort and coach Jonathan Gannon’s build.
Now, I’m not saying the Cardinals are going to the playoffs. But I wouldn’t be stunned if they got to .500 or better, which would be a nice Year 2 jump for the group they have in charge.
Bears general manager Ryan Poles appeared on The Pat McAfee Show on Wednesday to break down the team's draft picks. After selecting Caleb Williams first, Rome Odunze ninth and offensive lineman Kiran Amegadjie in the third round, the Bears picked Iowa punter Tory Taylor in the fourth.
McAfee was excited to hear what Poles had to say about the All-American Ray Guy Award winner and for good reason. Poles clearly feels like the Bears picked up a legitimate weapon in Taylor and feels like he's the kind of player who will make opposing teams "uncomfortable."
"I love taking advantage of field position and Tory Taylor is gonna make it uncomfortable for other teams..
“I didn’t expect him to get much further. Definitely didn’t think I’d be able to pick him up when we got to the fifth round,” Poles said. “And, really, the thought process there is to make anyone we’re playing really uncomfortable. I didn’t play much in the NFL but I know running onto the field and having the ball spotted inside the 10-yard line is a very uncomfortable feeling. It’s disheartening at times. And I love taking advantage of field position. And, really, that should help us with points as well. So I think he's going to add to our team and again make it uncomfortable for any team we're going against."
Contrast that with Caleb Williams' intial text message to his new teammate: "hey you're not going to punt too much here." That's the thing about punters. It's nice to have a good one, but no one actually ever wants to see them play because that means a drive stalled.
That's the beauty of football. It's eleven different players doing very different jobs in concert on every single play. They say it takes a village to raise a child, but it takes almost as many to win a football game. If Taylor doesn't get much action this season, it would seem this was a wasted pick, but if he does see a lot of playing time, that's not a great sign for the Bears top pick either. Hopefully, the Bears can find a happy medium or Poles will end up being the one who feels uncomfortable.
