The Sunday slate in the DFS market is loaded with talent and potential scoring. The challenge will be finding the value plays to fill out the back end of the roster.
Here’s a look at the game totals and matchup at SI Sportsbook:
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (48.5)
Both teams coming into this week’s matchup played below expectation last week.
Josh Allen turned over the ball three times, including a fumble that led to a Dolphins touchdown. Miami also sacked him seven times. The Bills allowed a 50-yard punt return and a 49-yard interception return to keep the Dolphins in the game. On the positive side, Buffalo controlled the run game (20/42/1) while holding the Dolphins’ receiver to a low catch rate (42.9), helped by Miami starting a third-string quarterback.
Buffalo’s defense held running backs to fewer than 100 yards in six of their past eight games. They tend to minimize the damage in the passing game (6.5 yards per pass attempt and 21 touchdowns).
Three running backs rushed for over 100 yards (Aaron Jones – 20/143, Dalvin Cook – 14/119/1, and Raheem Mostert (17/136) against the Bills. Their secondary gave up more than 100 yards receiving to seven wideouts (Cooper Kupp – 13/128/1, Jaylen Waddle – 4/102, JuJu Smith-Schuster (5/113/1), Justin Jefferson (10/193/1), Amari Cooper (8/113/2), Amon St. Brown (9/122/1), and Jaylen Waddle (3/114/1).
The game sets up well for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Only two quarterbacks (Jacoby Brissett – 324/3 and Mac Jones – 243/3) tossed more than two passing touchdowns against Buffalo. The passing yards for the Bengals have been disappointing in four of the previous five games (239, 200, 215, and 209), but Joe Burrow tossed 13 touchdowns.
The Bills allowed their first touchdown to a tight end (82/616/0 on 117 targets) last week vs. the Dolphins.
The Bengals’ offense and defense came out flat against the Ravens. Baltimore controlled the time of possession (32.26 minutes of offense) with the run game (35/155/0), and Tyler Huntley made enough play to keep his team in the hunt in the fourth quarter.
Cincinnati struggled to run the ball (18/51/1), and Joe Burrow gained only 6.5 yards per pass attempt while being sacked four times.
The pass defense for the Bengals ranks well in touchdowns allowed (17) and yards per pass attempt, but their success has been helped by a soft quarterback schedule (Mitchell Trubisky, Cooper Rush, Joe Flacco, Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota, Jacoby Brissett, PJ Walker, Kenny Pickett, Ryan Tannehill, and Anthony Brown). In addition, their secondary was exposed in four games to wide receiver (MIA – 16/254, CLE – 12/245/1, TB – 22/232/3, and NE – 14/206/2).
Barring some bad weather in Buffalo, Allen should have plenty of chance to make some plays in the passing.
Four wide receivers (Tyreek Hill – 10/160, Amari Cooper – 5/131/1, Donovan Peoples-Jones – 8/114, and Kendrick Bourne – 6/100/1) gained more than 100 yards vs. Cincinnati. Their defense does have some risk against tight ends (88/924/3).
Stefon Diggs and one other receiving option should come this week. Dawson Knox has been hot over the past five weeks (a touchdown in each game with 18 catches for 210 yards). He appears to be the value option.
The Bills’ running backs have been a non-factor in many games this season, making them contrarian plays despite low salaries.
MORE: NFL DFS Divisional Saturday Slate
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (45.5)
Last week multiple 49ers players landed on the winning ticket in the DFS market. The same thing happened the following day for the Dallas passing game. I’m a fan of two-game-winning streaks in the daily games, but I don’t see Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, and Dalton Schultz scoring big again this week.
Purdy is hard to dismiss based on salary. I expect the 49ers to run the ball well, hurting his passing chance and touchdowns. Schultz helped my fantasy group win $40,000 in Week 17 (7/56/2) on a showdown slate, and he was the winning caption play against Tampa (7/95/2). Last week, Samuel returned his 2021 beast form, but a good portion of his stats came in one play (a 74-yard touchdown).
George Kittle (6/120/2) and Brandon Aiyuk (9/101/1) have impact games over the past month. Elijah Mitchell has three touchdowns over the past two games while coming back from an injury and off the bench in relief of Christian McCaffrey.
Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott are fades based on the 49ers playing well vs. the run. CeeDee Lamb has come up big of late in some challenging matchups. He is a plus option on this slate. T.Y. Hilton is my top-value Cowboys wide receiver.
Divisional Sunday Slate Picks
Note: Building teams look easier when starting with Brock Purdy. The drop-down at quarterback gives DFS players a chance to roster three big-name players.
QB: Josh Allen/Joe Burrow
RB1: Christian McCaffrey/Joe Mixon
RB2: James Cook/Elijah Mitchell
WR1: Stefon Diggs/Ja’Marr Chase/CeeDee Lamb
WR2: Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk, Gabe Davis
WR3: Tyler Boyd, T.Y. Hilton, Michael Gallup
TE: George Kittle/Dawson Knox
Flex: Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk, Gabe Davis/Deebo Samuel
DEF: 49ers/Bills
Contrarian: Tony Pollard
