Saturday’s DFS slate has only two games, but there are still plenty of ways to build a winning DFS lineup.
The first of Saturday’s two matchups features the Seattle Seahawks vs. the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners easily covered the spread in both wins vs. the division-rival Seahawks this season, and this weekend’s matchup has San Francisco favored by 9.5 at SI Sportsbook. I expect this game to go exactly as predicted, with the 49ers likely running the ball vs. a Seattle run defense that ranks 30th in league, allowing 150.2 rushing yards per game. Brock Purdy will be a great game manager, and all San Francisco pass-catchers should be back in action for this one. As for Seattle, QB Geno Smith has been held to only one TD across two games played this year when facing the 49ers, and Seattle running backs have had little success vs. the league’s toughest run defense allowing an average of only 77.7 rushing yards per game this year.
The second matchup features the Los Angeles Chargers vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars. This one is considered to be a coin flip, with the spread currently favoring the visiting Chargers by a mere 2.5 points. In their only regular-season matchup, the Jaguars upset the Chargers 38-10; however, this time around Justin Herbert will have all of his weapons healthy. Expect Jacksonville to attack on the ground as Los Angeles’s defense has allowed the most yards per carry to runners this year, while limiting opposition to only 217 passing yards per game. Conversely, the Chargers should put the ball in the air vs. a Jacksonville defense that has allowed more than 250 passing yards per game to opposing QBs this year.
Bearing all of this in mind, here are my top picks at each salary price-point for Saturday’s slate.
MORE: NFL DFS Wild-Card Sunday Slate
Justin Herbert didn’t have his favorite receiver, Keenan Allen, the last time he faced the Jaguars. He will this time.
Gary A. Vasquez/USA Today Sports
NFL DFS Top-Tier Plays
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (LAC)
Herbert’s matchup looks good on paper, as the Jaguars have allowed the sixth-most DFS points to opposing QBs this year. On the season, Herbert’s 4,739 passing yards are second only to Patrick Mahomes. Though he only threw for one TD in the Week 3 matchup with Jacksonville, he logged 297 yards — and this time he will have Keenan Allen back.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey (SF)
Last time these two met up, McCaffrey burned Seattle for 138 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. The Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most DFS points to runners this season, and game script is in his favor, too, as the Niners are currently favored by 9.5 on SI Sportsbook.
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen (LAC)
Allen has seen an average of more than 10 targets per game since returning from injury in Week 11. The Jaguars have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game this year and Justin Herbert has the third-most passing yards in the NFL. Allen should smash.
Tight End
George Kittle (SF)
Kittle has been especially dominant the last few weeks, including the last time he faced Seattle. In Week 13, he had 93 yards and two touchdowns vs. this Seattle team that has allowed the most DFS points to tight ends this season. Rookie Brock Purdy likes to target Kittle early and often, so don’t be afraid to spend up at the position.
NFL DFS Mid-Tier Plays
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence (JAC)
Lawrence has rushing upside that might pay off vs. a Chargers team that has allowed an average of 145.8 rushing yards per game (27th). In Week 3, Lawrence also burned this typically tough Chargers pass defense, throwing for 262 yards and three scores in a 38-10 upset win in Los Angeles.
Running Back
Travis Etienne (JAC)
Speaking of how many rushing yards the Chargers like to give up… Etienne should be in for a nice day! The Chargers have allowed a league-leading 5.59 yards per attempt this year to opposing running backs and the sixth-most DFS points per game. Etienne has carried the ball an average of 15 times per game since taking over the starting job from James Robinson in Week 8.
Wide Receiver
Tyler Lockett (SEA)
In the two games played between Seattle and San Francisco this year, Lockett saw a total of 20 targets. He’s averaging 64 receiving yards per game this season and he leads all Seattle receivers with a 71.8% catch rate.
Tight End
Evan Engram (JAX)
Evan Engram has averaged 7.5 targets and 68 yards per game across the last six contests, and his 74.5% catch rate is better than both Christian Kirk and Zay Jones.
NFL DFS Bargain-Tier Plays
Quarterback
Brock Purdy (SF)
Purdy just keeps on getting it done, and he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. Purdy has thrown only three interceptions in five starts for the Niners. In Week 15, he threw for a pair of TDs vs. Seattle, and his 67.1% completion rate is tied with Patrick Mahomes.
Running Back
Eli Mitchell (SF)
As much as I love CMC, and I am willing to spend up for him, if you’d rather pivot, don’t forget Mitchell is back. Last week he carried the ball only five times, but he gained 55 yards for an average of 11 yards per attempt. Should this game get out of hand, he will likely be tasked with running out the ballgame. The Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most DFS points running backs this season.
Wide Receiver
Zay Jones (JAC)
Jones is the WR2 in Jacksonville. His 82 catches are only two fewer than Christian Kirk’s. In Week 3 vs. the Chargers, Jones caught 10 of his 11 targets for 85 yards and a touchdown.
Tight End
Gerald Everett (LAC)
The Jacksonville Jaguars rank 22nd vs. the tight end, and Everett is running routes on 66.4% of his snaps. That’s the ninth-most at the position.
