NFL Coaching Carousel: Sean Payton’s Options, Next Patriots OC

We’re onto the NFL playoffs with six wild-card games on tap for this weekend and Monday. Let’s get to your mailbag questions like usual, some related to coaching hires and the draft, some touching on other topics …

From Matt Ramas (@matt_ramas): For teams trying to hire Sean Payton, is it Chargers 1A and Cardinals 1B?

Matt, I could be wrong, but I think the Chargers probably stick with Brandon Staley, with the progress the team showed—though I can understand why pairing Justin Herbert with Payton would be enticing. Also, would the team pay what it would take ($20 million-plus per) to get him? Or maybe he’d like the idea of getting to stay in Los Angeles (he’s lived in the South Bay this season) and coach Herbert so much that he’d take less?

I guess there’s a chance, but less of one with the Chargers.

As for the Cardinals, I’m just not sure he’d hitch himself to Kyler Murray. And, with the way Michael Bidwill spoke at his press conference the other day, it sounded like the Cardinals are a little more married to their structure (hiring the GM first, then the coach) than, say, Denver, which would, at least on the surface, make a run at Payton less likely. And I say that remembering in 2013 when the Chiefs blew up their best-laid plans to go get Andy Reid, so nothing’s impossible.

If you add all this together, I’d say there’s a better chance than people realize that Payton takes another year away from coaching. I know he 100% wants to coach again. But I also think he’s earned the right to be picky, and I don’t know that the right job is there for him in this particular cycle.

From MattyD (@MattDeJesus20): If the Patriots are to hire an official offensive coordinator, who are your top three candidates? People who Bill might actually hire, something realistic?

Matty, so let’s start here—Patriots coaches haven’t been informed of any changes. That doesn’t mean changes aren’t not coming, but it does mean they could make things harder on themselves—if some of their preferred candidates come off the board. That said, you asked for a top three …

1. Alabama OC Bill O’Brien: My sense is O’Brien would love to return to his home state to coach. He has five years of experience with the Patriots, three years having run their offense. He knows Mac Jones, with Jones having helped to teach O’Brien the Crimson Tide offense when he got there in early 2021. Everything about this makes sense. Does Bill Belichick do it? Or will it be a problem, as it was last year for Belichick, that O’Brien could parlay a great year into another opportunity and be a flight risk? What I know is the Krafts love O’Brien, and I think he’s good enough to be a potential successor to the throne. Which is another element to pay attention to here. Stay tuned.
2. Former Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury: I can say Belichick’s at least turned over rocks on this one. Kingsbury played for Belichick in 2003, and, when the team put the then rookie QB on injured reserve that year, he actually turned Kingsbury into a de facto quality control coach (so he thought, all the way back then, that Kingsbury had coaching potential). Also, Kingsbury’s offense has been one of the toughest to prepare for in the NFL over the past four years, and one of the more studied ones by offensive coaches, which means he’d bring a lot of new ideas. But at the end of all this, I’m not sure Kingsbury would jump back in. I’ve been told he might take this chance to catch his breath for a year. He also has four full years and $30 million left on his Cardinals contract, and plenty of money in the bank.
3. Patriots TE coach Nick Caley: Caley, to me, was the guy many internally thought was the heir to Josh McDaniels’s coordinator spot, and especially so after Belichick blocked Caley from interviewing for a spot on McDaniels’s staff in Vegas. And, then, things didn’t work out that way. But Caley’s still a really good young coach with a bright future. His contract is up. Could fences be mended here, and Belichick give him the promotion so many thought he was getting last year? It’d take some pride-swallowing from Belichick … so we’ll see.

And one bonus name—Browns pass-game coordinator Chad O’Shea. The 50-year-old spent a decade in the Patriots’ system, called Miami’s offense for a year, and now has spent three years in the sort of Mike Shanahan–style system that Belichick has so long respected and tried to take from. His return after waiting for, and not getting, a promotion in New England, and leaving because of that, wouldn’t be unlike Brian Daboll’s return to the Patriots in 2014.

Again, as of now, it seems like the Patriots are going through their exit meetings, and coaches will be off for a week and a half or so. So we’ll see whether Belichick gets aggressive in the interim.

From BryceSZN (@TexansUK99): What are you hearing about the consensus order of quarterbacks for the 2023 NFL draft so far?

Bryce, if I had to spitball, I’d go …

1. Bryce Young, Alabama
2. C.J. Stroud, Ohio Stat
3. Will Levis, Kentucky
4. Anthony Richardson, Florida

But all have flaws.

On Young, it’s size (6’1”, 194 pounds). And while he checks just about every other box, his measurables aren’t an afterthought for NFL teams. In fact, if you really drill down and study it, it’s hard to find a quarterback at Young’s height or under who became a star without running 4.5 seconds or faster in the 40 (the feeling is Young will run around 4.7), with Drew Brees being the one outlier. So that’s something GMs have to consider.

On Stroud, there are lingering questions on how he plays when he has to play out of structure—plenty of scouts felt like the Ohio State star struggled when he had to buy time and create, and there was evidence of that. Stroud, to his credit, emphatically answered some of those concerns in the Peach Bowl, turning into more of a playmaker. Will that progress continue?

On Levis, the makeup, the build, the arm and the athleticism intrigue everyone, and that’s where some have conjured a Josh Allen comp, in that the pieces are there, and just need to be developed. The trouble is that the flashes Levis showed came in a single year, with Liam Coen as his coordinator, and weren’t sustained after Coen left Kentucky for the Rams, which justifiably has teams asking … why?

And then on Richardson, there are parallels to Levis, in that there’s so much to like physically, with Richardson probably having better long speed than Levis. And he was asked to do some NFL things in his year playing for new Florida coach Billy Napier. But for all the good things, there are moments when he shows how raw he is, too.

The great thing about the group, as I see it, is that this will be a real race between the four for positioning over the next three and a half months, with guys having a shot to rise or fall based on how they do in all-star games, combine and pro days.

From Max (@MaxxPrescott): What do the Jets do with the offensive coaching staff this offseason to improve?

Max, I think it’s really hard to assess the Jets’ offensive staff, given the quarterback situation—and of course they’re not blameless when it comes to Zach Wilson’s struggles. But the fact remains that Wilson’s issues mirror the ones he had in college. He doesn’t take what the defense gives him, is too often hunting for off-schedule shots down the field and his leadership qualities are questionable.

So let’s look at how that staff has developed other guys. Breece Hall and Ali Vera-Tucker looked like they were going to be stars before they got hurt this year. Garrett Wilson went for 1,000 yards and is a legit Rookie of the Year candidate. The tight ends played well, as did the backup quarterbacks. On the flip side, Mekhi Becton’s issues have persisted at left tackle, and Elijah Moore had quite the tumultuous second year in the NFL.

I don’t know what Robert Saleh’s going to do. But I think, if it’s 50-50, he sticks with Mike LaFleur and those coaches, and gives them a shot to keep building with a scheme I know Saleh believes deeply in. And for what it’s worth, I think those guys deserve a third year.

From snitgoat (@AkivaSnitow): Who is going to win the Super Bowl this year?

I’m picking the Bengals because I can’t ignore what I saw at the start of the Monday-night game against the Bills—they looked dynamite. And they came out like a house on fire against the Ravens, too. All of which convinced me that no team right now has the ceiling the Bengals do. Add to that the motivation of their feeling that the league treated them like second-class citizens, and I think Joe Burrow lifts the Lombardi in February in Glendale, with quarterback being the difference in a rematch of Super Bowls XVI and XXIII.

From Bring Harbaugh Home (@StP_Colts): The Colts’ next HC is …?

What we’re seeing with the Colts’ requests is that this is going to be a wide-ranging search. Indianapolis has requested interviews for second-chance coaches (Rams DC Raheem Morris), young offensive names (Lions OC Ben Johnson, Eagles OC Shane Steichen) and young defensive names (Lions DC Aaron Glenn). There’s also the idea, and I do see your handle; Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh could be in play, given his relationship with not just owner Jim Irsay, but also assistant GM Ed Dodds, who likely would’ve been his GM if he landed the Raiders job last year.

With so much focus on fixing the quarterback situation, my guess would be Irsay would lean offense. And looking at what Harbaugh did in San Francisco—taking a team that was a quarterback away, getting Alex Smith right, drafting Colin Kaepernick, and going to three consecutive NFC title games—you can see where he’d be an enticing option, even if Harbaugh isn’t the most technical offensive coach.

And then, there’s Johnson. Irsay, with his past two hires, Chuck Pagano and Frank Reich, went after guys who were a little off the radar in an effort to find his own guy, rather than trying to win over a hot name. If you look at that trend, and the quarterback dynamic that’ll be in play with that hire, Johnson actually lines up nicely.

From Zach Fogelman (@FogelmanZach): Is Sean McVay staying with the Rams?

From 𝚂𝚕𝚢 ™️ (@ThinkBlue47): Best (external) HC Candidate for the #RamsHouse if Sean McVay leaves #AskBreer

Zach and Sly, whatever I give you here is 51–49, but yeah, I think he stays—mostly I think out of loyalty to the people around him, from the Rams’ core four (Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey) to all the coaches he’s brought aboard. I think, for McVay, this is about believing he can be in the right place to go after it as hard as he ever has in 2023. Maybe he gets himself there. Maybe he doesn’t. We’ll see.

I do know he went through a lot on the field and off it in 2022, and I don’t think this is a simple decision for him. My sense before the season was that McVay had one to five seasons left, and his future would likely be tied to those four players and I’ll stand by that. It also illustrates how he wouldn’t be around for a rebuild.

If McVay’s out, Morris will be the favorite to replace him. The Rams had to prepare for this last year, too, with McVay, and I know the plan at that point was to elevate Morris if McVay left, even before they lost Kevin O’Connell to the Vikings. I have no reason to think that’s changed.

From Tyler Johnson (@T_johnson_TJ): Who do you believe the #Browns will hire as defensive coordinator?

Tyler, I really like their candidates, and I do think it’s indicative, to some degree, of former Lions GM Bob Quinn’s growing influence in the organization—three of the four guys interviewing were raised in the business by Bill Belichick, just like Quinn. The one who doesn’t have such ties is Seattle assistant Sean Desai, who is friendly with Kevin Stefanski, a favorite of the Browns’ analytics team, and competed against the Browns coach for years in the NFC North.

If I had to peg a favorite right now, I’d probably go with a Pittsburgh senior defensive assistant, linebackers coach Brian Flores, and I have heard owner Jimmy Haslam is a fan of his. Patriots linebackers coach Jerod Mayo has merit, too, in that there have been a lot of coordinator-type functions to his job with the Patriots—he runs meetings and helps design the defense and game plans—and he could be a culture-changer for a unit that, in an honest moment, Browns people would tell you they need on defense.

Conversely, going with Jim Schwartz (whose connection to Belichick is actually from Cleveland) would represent two different things. The first would be scheme familiarity—what he would presumably bring is a lot closer to the Pete Carroll style of defense that Joe Woods ran the past three years in Cleveland. The second is a connection to GM Andrew Berry, from the time the two were together in Philadelphia.

So, again, I’d say Flores is probably the one, with the added benefit of such a hire kicking the legs out from underneath a division rival. We’ll see what happens.

From TJ (@ChrisTJ31): Is Mike McCarthy gone if the Cowboys go one-and-done in the playoffs again? Jerry was really mad last year.

TJ, this one has seemed to persist in NFL circles, as one where a bad showing in the wild-card round could prompt changes. But I’m inclined to take Jerry Jones at his word when he says he’s not considering blowing Mike McCarthy and his staff out.

I have two reasons for saying that.

First, I don’t think McCarthy deserves it. Dallas finished with 12 wins. The Cowboys did it with Cooper Rush starting five games. They did it with left tackle Tyron Smith going down right before the season, and in having rookie Tyler Smith, who spent the spring and summer at guard, being ready to take his place. They did it with Quinn, a hire McCarthy made after his first year in Dallas, again commandeering a top-shelf defense. There really isn’t a circumstance after this year I see where you’d say, Yeah, McCarthy really needs to go.

Second, Jones isn’t knee-jerk like everyone thinks—a reputation that really goes back to when he and Jimmy Johnson split in the mid-1990s. He gave Dave Campo three years. He gave Wade Phillips four, and he gave Jason Garrett nine. There really isn’t anything in Jones’s history that says he’ll hastily pull the plug on McCarthy. Maybe that changes now that he’s in his 80s. But the evidence that he’s going to do something rash just isn’t there.

So, yeah, I think McCarthy will be the Dallas coach in 2023 regardless of what happens Monday against Tampa Bay, which is just taking Jones at his word.

From Greg (@panther1gb89): Gut feeling today … who does Tepper hire in Carolina?

Greg, I think it’ll either be defensive coordinator Steve Wilks or a young offensive coach (which is where owner David Tepper was focusing his research after firing Matt Rhule in October). And which way this goes rides on how the process goes.

My belief is that Tepper knows the sentiment in the building and will take it into account, with the locker room solidly behind Wilks, and Wilks being as respected as can be in the organization as a whole and with the fan base. He’s from the area, went 6–6 with a team that looked hopeless at 1–4, and built an identity on the fly, reemphasizing fundamentals in-season and putting together an overpowering run game. All that happened, by the way, with the team having dealt away its best player [Christian McCaffrey].

So I think this is Tepper fighting his best-laid plans against a feeling that Wilks is probably the right guy to hire. And so it’d seem that Wilks’s plan to build on what he accomplished over the past three months, and in particular what he’ll do on offense (I’ve mentioned Philly’s Brian Johnson as a potential coordinator candidate) will be key, if Wilks is going to convince Tepper not to go with Johnson, Dorsey or Steichen.

From Codey Dauch (@codeydraws): Who are the Buckeyes going to go with at QB? Is McCord the answer?

Wish I knew, Codey! But I do have a ton of faith that, whether it’s Kyle McCord or Devin Brown, or even Lincoln Kienholz, we’re going to be just fine at quarterback.

So good luck to Kyle and Devin with winter conditioning, and to Lincoln with the rest of his senior year.