The Tampa Bay Buccaneers might have had the quietest offseason among the teams in the NFC South, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the reigning division champions are on the decline.
The Buccaneers could make it four consecutive division titles after retaining their key in-house free agents, including Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield. But the Atlanta Falcons, who had a fast start to the offseason, could be on the rise with the free-agent addition of Kirk Cousins.
The Falcons were viewed as clear favorites in the NFC South after adding Cousins to an offense that included Bijan Robison, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. But the gap might have closed after they used a first-round pick on quarterback Michael Penix Jr., while their divisional rivals strengthened their respective rosters with top picks that weren’t used on signal-callers.
The New Orleans Saints drafted a quarterback (Spencer Rattler in the fifth round), but used their first-round pick on offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga to help Derek Carr.
The Carolina Panthers also prioritized their offseason to assist quarterback Bryce Young, but they still have a long way to go to catch up to the rest of the pack.
Here are grades and analysis for how the NFC South teams did this offseason.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Offseason grade: B
Key additions: C Graham Barton, Edge Chris Braswell, OG Ben Bredeson, Edge Randy Gregory, S Jordan Whitehead
Key subtractions: CB Carlton Davis III, LB Devin White
Analysis: The Buccaneers avoided offseason splash moves and prioritized their core group, one that surprised in 2023 with Mayfield’s resurgence. Tampa Bay should again contend for the NFC South title after retaining Evans, Mayfield and safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who was hit with the franchise tag. Evans and Mayfield gained long-term extensions after helping the Buccaneers advance to the divisional round.
It’s not the flashiest roster, but the Buccaneers have talent throughout and continue to improve the offensive and defensive lines. Tom Brady might be jealous of the offensive line the Buccaneers have built for Mayfield over the past two seasons. Tampa Bay selected Graham Barton, possibly the best center in the draft, to join a group that made strides last season after failing to protect Brady in 2022.
The Buccaneers, however, took a risk handing Mayfield a three-year extension worth up to $115 million after one dynamic season in Tampa Bay. Mayfield, the former top pick of the Cleveland Browns, will also be without Dave Canales, the offensive coordinator who became the Panthers’ coach in the offseason. But the Buccaneers made many savvy moves to ensure Mayfield’s ’23 season wasn’t a fluke.
Key subtractions: RB Cordarrelle Patterson, QB Desmond Ridder, TE Jonnu Smith
Analysis: The Falcons quickly went from being NFC South favorites with Cousins to a team with quarterback concerns following the first-round selection of Penix. Not only did the Falcons create an awkward scenario, they failed to improve the 2024 squad by using their No. 8 pick on a player who might not play for a few seasons. Had the Falcons gone with the best player available, perhaps they would have gotten an A grade for the offseason and be viewed as NFC South favorites for longer than a month.
But the Falcons could still have the best team in the division if Cousins makes a full recovery from the torn Achilles he sustained last season with the Minnesota Vikings. Cousins will get to work with coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, two former Los Angeles Rams assistant coaches who had plenty of success under Sean McVay. With the Falcons having talented skill players, perhaps Cousins and a new coaching staff were the final pieces for Atlanta to clinch a playoff spot for the first time since 2017. But they might have been viewed as Super Bowl contenders had they drafted one of the top edge rushers in the draft instead of Penix. Maybe Penix gets an opportunity to start a game or two in 2024 to impress and quiet the critics.
New Orleans Saints
Offseason grade: B-
Key additions: OL Taliese Fuaga, LB Willie Gay Jr., CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, QB Spencer Rattler, WR Cedrick Wilson Jr., Edge Chase Young
Key subtractions: S Marcus Maye, OG Andrus Peat, WR Michael Thomas, QB Jameis Winston
Analysis: With a veteran-filled roster, New Orleans balanced the present and the future after saying goodbye to key players and hello to prominent rookies. The Saints are far removed from the days of Drew Brees and Sean Payton, but they neglected the full rebuild route the past three seasons and missed the postseason every year in that span. The organization seems to have finally adjusted after parting with Michael Thomas, Marcus Maye and Andrus Peat. The moves they made provided some cap space flexibility for the Saints, something they haven’t had much of in recent years.
For the most part, the 2024 Saints should have a similar look to last season heading into Year 2 with Carr as the starting quarterback. Carr had mixed results in his first season in New Orleans, but played well in the final month and should have better protection with the arrival of Fuaga, a rugged run blocker who can play tackle and guard. But the Saints might be making a mistake by relying on Trevor Penning and Ryan Ramczyk as the starting tackles again. Penning has struggled since being a 2022 first-round pick and Ramczyk has dealt with injuries. If Carr gets time to operate, he’ll have Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed to hurt defenses downfield.
On defense, the team took a chance on Chase Young, who had a rocky 2023 season after being traded by the Commanders to the 49ers. But the move could pay off, with veteran defensive end Cameron Jordan needing help. New Orleans could have a foundational piece in second-round cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry.
Carolina Panthers
Offseason grade: C+
Key additions: RB Jonathon Brooks, Edge K’Lavon Chaisson, Edge Jadeveon Clowney, S Jordan Fuller, OG Robert Hunt, WR Diontae Johnson,LB Josey Jewell, WR Xavier Legette, OG Damien Lewis, Edge D.J. Wonnum
Key subtractions: S Vonn Bell, Edge Brian Burns, S Jeremy Chinn, Edge Yetur Gross-Matos, CB Donte Jackson, LB Frankie Luvu
Analysis: Let’s get the bad out of the way because there have been plenty of offseason positives for the worst team in the NFL last year. The Panthers’ rebuild project took a hit after they elected to trade Brian Burns to the New York Giants for two draft picks, neither in the first round. It’s been well documented that the Panthers had the opportunity to trade Burns in 2022 for multiple first-round picks. With that in mind, it was strange that the Panthers didn’t just keep Burns on the roster to continue building the defense with stud defensive tackle Derrick Brown, who cashed in this offseason with a lucrative contract extension.
The Panthers also spent money on the offensive side to assist Young, the 2023 No. 1 pick coming off a rough rookie season. Perhaps no offseason acquisition was more important than the hiring of Canales, the offensive guru who helped reignite the careers of Mayfield and Geno Smith. The Panthers added weapons and protection for Young, including the splash signing of guard Robert Hunt, whom the team might have overpaid for with a monster five-year, $100 million contract. Veteran wideout Adam Thielen won’t have to carry the team like he did last season, with the trade for Diontae Johnson and first-round selection of Xavier Legette. Also, the Panthers improved the poor ground game by using a second-round pick for running back Jonathon Brooks.
Offensively, the Panthers might have done enough this offseason to gain positive results from Young in Year 2. The defense, however, might not be able to replace the production of Burns. Newcomer veterans Jadeveon Clowney and D.J. Wonnum will need to step up to help Brown and the rest of the defense.
Last week, we broke down which rookie first-round picks will make an immediate impact during the 2024 NFL season. There were plenty of options to choose from with many star players often coming from the opening round, but don’t overlook the Day 2 selections.
Every year there are a handful of prospects with first-round grades who are available on the Friday of the draft because the quarterback position gets overvalued and teams tend to prioritize roster needs. This year, six quarterbacks were taken in the first round, leaving many potential star players on the board for the teams with established quarterbacks.
Last year, Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr., Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis and Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta were the first three picks in the second round. All three had dynamic rookie years for their respective teams.
In the 2023 third round, the Los Angeles Rams selected edge rusher Byron Young and defensive tackle Kobie Turner, two Defensive Rookie of the Year candidates. Also in the third round, the Miami Dolphins added running back De’Von Achane and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took edge rusher YaYa Diaby.
Here are six players from Rounds 2 and 3 who could make an immediate impact as rookies this season.
The 6'3" Coleman landed in the perfect spot to become an immediate contributor. He has the size and skill set to slide in as the Bills’ “X” receiver to complement speedy wideouts Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir. Most importantly, Coleman will have the luxury of catching passes from Josh Allen, who will probably rely heavily on Coleman’s sizable catch radius for downfield completions.
The Florida State product is viewed as Stefon Diggs’s replacement, but they’re different players, with Coleman being more of a big-bodied wideout who can come down with 50-50 passes. Remember Allen’s misfire with Diggs downfield late in the playoff loss against the Kansas City Chiefs? Coleman will likely be a friendly target for Allen on contested throws, but he’ll need to improve his route running, an area Diggs mastered over the years.
Cooper DeJean, DB, Philadelphia Eagles, No. 40 (second round)
It’s unknown whether DeJean will play safety or cornerback in Vic Fangio’s defense, but it will likely be a combination of both after how poorly things went for the Eagles’ secondary last season.
The versatile DeJean could be the starting slot cornerback or a starting safety next to C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who returned in March as a free-agent acquisition. If he’s in the slot, DeJean will have the luxury of playing next to Darius Slay and fellow rookie Quinyon Mitchell, the team’s first-round pick. DeJean likely will have an easier time getting acclimated to the pro level than Mitchell because outside cornerbacks tend to struggle early in their careers. Overall, the Eagles’ secondary will be better off after Philly landed two of the best defensive backs in the draft. DeJean, however, could have competition with Sydney Brown and Reed Blakenship at safety.
Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Green Bay Packers, No. 45 (second round)
The versatile Cooper could end the Packers’ recent trend of getting minimal results from rookie defenders. Edge rusher Lukas Van Ness, the team’s 2023 first-round pick, had a quiet rookie year, and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt and linebacker Quay Walker—two 2022 first-round picks—have struggled to find their footing.
Cooper is an outstanding run defender and has the speed to be a sideline-to-sideline playmaker in the middle of the Packers’ defense. He will likely be an immediate starter after the release of De’Vondre Campbell. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Cooper emerges as the Packers’ middle linebacker and takes snaps from Walker and Isaiah McDuffie.
The Cardinals could be the surprise team of 2024 because of the arrival of stud rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., but don’t overlook Arizona’s other moves this offseason to improve the offense. Benson made a name for himself at Florida State as an explosive playmaker who recorded 23 touchdowns and rushed for 1,896 yards during his final two seasons.
Benson will likely split carries with veteran running back James Conner, but there were times last year in which Conner struggled to adjust to Drew Petzing’s offense. Benson might offer more as a pass catcher and has sub 4.4 speed to generate explosive plays. The rookie back will also get to run behind a revamped offensive line with bookend tackles Jonah Williams and Paris Johnson Jr., the 2023 first-round pick. Benson, Harrison and Kyler Murray could quickly become a formidable trio in the NFL.
Junior Colson, LB, Los Angeles Chargers, No. 69 (third round)
Colson should benefit from need at the position and familiarity with the Chargers’ coaching staff. He started 36 games for Jim Harbaugh at Michigan and will reunite with Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who held the same role at Michigan.
The Chargers’ linebacker unit struggled constantly during the Brandon Staley era, leading to the team parting with Kenneth Murray Jr. and Eric Kendricks. Colson, who led Michigan in tackles the past two seasons, is a physical downhill linebacker with reliable instincts on the field. He should be in line for a starting role next to veteran Denzel Perryman.
Bralen Trice, Atlanta Falcons, edge, No. 74 (third round)
Many assumed the Falcons would select an edge rusher with their No. 8 pick, which instead ended up being quarterback Michael Penix Jr. Atlanta eventually filled the need with the third-round selection of Trice, a relentless playmaker for a Washington team that advanced to the national championship game in January.
Trice, who had a combined 16 sacks the past two seasons, won’t have to face stiff competition to win a starting job over veterans Lorenzo Carter and 2022 second-round pick Arnold Ebiketie. Trice could be this year’s version of Rams edge rusher Byron Young, the 2023 third-rounder who flourished under Raheem Morris, the Rams defensive coordinator turned Falcons head coach.
Many were ready to pencil in the Atlanta Falcons as the NFC South winners for their 2024 NFL playoff predictions. That might have changed after the Falcons made their stunning selection of Michael Penix Jr. in the 2024 NFL draft.
The signal-caller out of Washington should help the Falcons in the future, but he didn’t make them better in the present, allowing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers to close the gap on the talented Falcons, who added immediate impact players with their first-round selections.
Kirk Cousins, who was signed in free agency to a four-year, $180 million deal, was left scratching his head at the Falcons’ first-round pick. But a few other teams in the NFC also made questionable moves during last week’s three-day draft as well.
Let’s examine how each NFC team did in the 2024 draft by ranking them from 16 to 1. Don’t expect a surprise for No. 16 …
16. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons used the No. 8 pick on Penix, who’s ready to start now after six years of college experience, including guiding Washington to the national title game. Instead of Penix following in the paths of Russell Wilson and Brock Purdy starting as rookies, he will have to wait his turn for a year or two, maybe three. And let’s not forget that Cousins’s contract includes guarantees of $90 million in the first two years with a $10 million option in Year 3.
The Falcons didn’t want to wait on a quarterback-succession plan, opting for what the Kansas City Chiefs and the Green Bay Packers did with Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love despite not having a deep roster as those teams did. The Falcons, who haven’t made the postseason since 2017, dismissed the present for the future and passed on adding an immediate contributor with their first-round pick. Now the pressure is on second-round defensive tackle Ruke Orhorhoro and third-round edge rusher Bralen Trice to produce right away.
15. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks deserve credit for adding defensive tackle Byron Murphy II, even though they have committed plenty of money to Leonard Williams and Dre’Mont Jones. Murphy fits the scheme of new coach Mike Macdonald, but now the Seahawks have a dilemma with a log jam at the position. Murphy will likely receive starter’s snaps because he excels at stopping the run, a weakness of the Seahawks the past few seasons.
Without a second-round pick, the rest of the Seahawks’ draft class seems a bit underwhelming. But the Seahawks have plenty of talent throughout the roster. Perhaps all they need for a bounce-back season is for Macdonald to get the star-studded defense on the same page, which became easier with the selection of Murphy.
14. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers might have prioritized need more than taking the best player available when it came to adding a wide receiver. They found their physical outside receiver, selecting 6'3," 227-pound Xavier Legette with the last pick in the first round. Carolina took Legette over Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman and Adonai Mitchell. Time will tell if the Panthers selected the right receiver for Bryce Young and new coach Dave Canales.
Taking the best running back prospect in Jonathon Brooks should give Carolina a balanced attack after a dismal ground game in 2023. Overall, the Panthers added help for Young and found a way to gain a first-round pick.
13. Dallas Cowboys
Judging from the social media criticism, the Cowboys’ draft class likely received a low grade from most football pundits. But it wasn’t as bad as many made it seem because they prioritized the offensive line. Sure, the Cowboys haven’t made it to a conference title game this millennium, but they became perennial playoff contenders because they rarely neglected the trenches, drafting Zack Martin and Tyler Smith. They quickly found their Tyron Smith replacement with the first-round selection of Tyler Guyton, a left tackle with plenty of upside.
Dallas also continued loading up on edge rushers, adding Marshawn Kneeland in the second round to fill the void of Dorance Armstrong, who left in free agency to join the Washington Commanders. It’s never a bad draft strategy to add offensive and defensive linemen. But the Cowboys failed to address their needs at running back and inside linebacker. They also could have used another receiver to go with CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks.
12. New York Giants
Perhaps the Giants should be ranked lower than 12th on this list, but they landed standout wideout Malik Nabers with their No. 6 pick. Nabers has the makings of the next Odell Beckham Jr. or Ja’Marr Chase. Nabers’s explosiveness will expand the playbook for coach Brian Daboll, making him a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses.
Daniel Jones gets another shot to prove himself with a dangerous downfield threat in Nabers—unless you’re buying the hype of Drew Lock possibly taking Jones’s job this summer. But the Giants likely know by now that Jones won’t ever reach elite QB status in the NFL. They had an opportunity to move up from No. 6 to third to select Drake Maye, but couldn’t come to a trade agreement with the New England Patriots.
11. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers passed on wide receivers who had more hype from the draft experts to select Ricky Pearsall with the 31st pick. San Francisco deserves the benefit of the doubt because Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk weren’t high-profile prospects when the team selected them. The 49ers might be forced to decide between Samuel and Aiyuk because they have drafted so well in recent years and don’t have enough cap space to keep all of their star players.
San Francisco gave itself flexibility with the Samuel-Aiyuk dilemma by adding Pearsall, who should be ready to slide in as a starter if Samuel or Aiyuk leave during the 2025 offseason. The best teams create options and plan ahead.
10. Minnesota Vikings
If J.J. McCarthy was the target all along, the Vikings played this well by only trading up one spot to get him at No. 10 instead of moving into the top five to select the Michigan quarterback. But Minnesota took a risk by banking on the fifth quarterback taken in the draft. As history has shown, it’s rare when five quarterbacks from one draft class develop into legitimate franchise signal-callers.
The Vikings tried to trade three first-round picks to the Patriots for the right to draft Maye, who likely has the best skill set among all of the QB prospects. McCarthy's ceiling might not be as high as the others, but he proved at Michigan he can run an efficient offense and will now get to throw to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. By not getting desperate for a quarterback, the Vikings also added Dallas Turner at No. 17 to pair with free-agent signing Jonathan Greenard.
9. Green Bay Packers
The Packers failed to add a top offensive tackle in last year’s draft, but they didn’t make that same mistake again, one they couldn’t afford because of the departure of David Bakhtiari. Jordan Morgan, the 25th pick, could compete for the left tackle job against Rasheed Walker, who filled in admirably for the injured Bakhtiari in 2023.
Morgan also has the flexibility to play guard, which could explain why the Packers chose him over Guyton, the Cowboys’ first-round pick. In the second round, the Packers took the first off-ball linebacker with Edgerrin Cooper. Perhaps the Texas A&M product could flourish as an immediate starter. Green Bay has invested plenty of draft picks in recent years on defensive players, but hasn’t received many positive returns.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With Canales now calling the plays for Young, the Buccaneers needed to find another way to make life easier for Baker Mayfield, who received a lucrative contract extension after a career year with Canales as the offensive play-caller in Tampa Bay. They did that by drafting center Graham Barton with the No. 26 pick. On paper, the Bucs’ offensive line has come a long way since 2022, when the unit failed to protect Tom Brady during his final season.
With a stout offensive line, Mayfield is well positioned to prove his 2023 season was no fluke. Coach Todd Bowles’s defense got better with second-round selection Chris Braswell, who will join last year’s standout rookie edge rusher Yaya Diaby.
7. New Orleans Saints
The Saints had a sensational start to the draft, selecting offensive tackle Taliese Fuaga and cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry in the first and second rounds, respectively. New Orleans had concerns at tackle with Ryan Ramczyk’s injury issues and Trevor Penning’s struggles on the field. Now they have less problems with the arrival of Fuaga, arguably the best run blocker in the draft.
Fuaga probably will start at right tackle, but he would fix more problems if he’s able to play left tackle. The Penning experience hasn’t worked out and it might be better for New Orleans to move him as a backup tackle. As for McKinstry, it won’t be easy for him to earn a starting job, but he adds youth to a veteran-filled defense. The Saints need more draft picks to become cornerstone pieces to finally gain cap-space flexibility.
6. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals didn’t overthink it and took Marvin Harrison Jr., possibly the best prospect in the draft. Yes, the Cardinals have many needs and would have benefited from the extra picks had they traded out of the No. 4 spot. But you don’t pass on a wide receiver prospect as good as Harrison, who has drawn comparisons to Larry Fitzgerald Jr. and A.J. Green.
Kyler Murray will benefit from Harrison’s presence, as will offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, who had impressive game plans in 2023 despite a poor roster. After taking the dominant Harrison, the Cardinals added Darius Robinson, who could be Arizona's best pass rusher this upcoming season. He’ll join a defensive unit lacking talent outside of safety Budda Baker.
5. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams filled defensive needs with two standout prospects. First, they took edge rusher Jared Verse to pair him with Byron Young, last year’s rookie standout. They followed that by moving up from No. 52 to 39 to select defensive tackle Braden Fiske, who impressed many at the Senior Bowl.
Fiske will have the pressure of filling the massive void left by the retirement of Aaron Donald, but he won’t have to do it alone because the Rams planned ahead. Last year, they drafted Young and defensive tackle Kobie Turner, who became a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate. L.A. lost a legend in Donald, but now have four intriguing players on the defensive line. Also, the Rams were wise to select running back Blake Corum in the third round. He has a similar skill set to last year’s breakout star Kyren Williams. They should form a dominant duo, and Corum could help as a starter in case Williams deals with injuries again.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles neglected the secondary last offseason and it cost them during their end-of-season collapse. The secondary should be much improved after Philadelphia added cornerback Quinyon Mitchell and defensive back Cooper DeJean. Mitchell could soon take over as the team’s No. 1 outside cornerback because of his elite traits and athleticism. DeJean will probably flourish in Vic Fangio’s scheme because he can play cornerback and safety.
And it wouldn’t be a Howie Roseman draft without him taking at least one edge rusher. Third-round pick Jalyx Hunt has plenty of upside and could quickly find a rotational role behind Josh Sweat and Bryce Huff.
3. Detroit Lions
Similar to the Eagles, the Lions addressed their secondary needs with a pair of first-round defensive backs. Detroit gets the nod over Philadelphia because Terrion Arnold might be one of the safest picks in the draft. He’s a polished technician with a similar skill set to Seattle’s Devon Witherspoon. Arnold going at No. 24 could end up being the steal of the draft.
The Lions didn’t settle at cornerback and took Ennis Rakestraw Jr. in the second round. The Lions swung and missed on cornerback Cameron Sutton, who was released recently after being a top free-agent addition in 2023. Arnold should be a Day 1 starter, joining last year’s rookie sensation Brian Branch and veteran newcomer Carlton Davis III. It likely won’t take Rakestraw long to crack the cornerback rotation in Detroit.
2. Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels is set up for long-term success after all of the savvy moves Washington has made in its first offseason with a new owner, GM and head coach.
Daniels received a talented tight end in Ben Sinnott, a second-round pick. Daniels also might have the luxury of playing with a much-improved defense. The Commanders’ first pick in the second round was defensive tackle Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton, who was viewed by many as a first-round prospect. The Commanders’ second second-round pick was cornerback Mike Sainristil. Coach Dan Quinn now has enough talent to turn the Washington defense from one of the worst to a respectable unit in 2024.
1. Chicago Bears
The Bears could have two Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates after using their two top-10 picks on Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze. On paper, GM Ryan Poles executed one of the best trades in recent years after flipping last year’s No. 1 pick to the Panthers for wide receiver DJ Moore and many draft picks, including two that turned into offensive tackle Darnell Wright and Williams.
But this trade won’t be remembered positively for years to come without Williams turning into an elite quarterback. The pressure is on the USC product, but the Bears have built an ideal surrounding for the top pick, with the trade for Keenan Allen and selection of Odunze, the savvy route router who can create plays on the outside and in the slot. Start the Bears’ hype train because they might be fun to watch with their two top-10 picks.
The 2024 NFL draft’s done. Lots of clean-up work to do. So let’s not waste any more time and get to that …
On Odell Beckham Jr. and the Miami Dolphins, it’d be smart to follow the money. Last year, the 10-year veteran signed a deal in Baltimore at a base value of $15 million with upside to $18 million. This year, his base pay with Miami will be 20% of what he got with the Ravens—just $3 million—with upside to $8.5 million.
Now, to be sure, the fact that Lamar Jackson was in the midst of a drawn-out contract negotiation and wanted Beckham aboard gave the receiver leverage to get a bit of an overpay.
So maybe that’s part of why Beckham’s getting so much less. But that's not the only reason.
One executive from a team that’s been in the receiver market and explored signing Beckham told me last week it’s clear—at least to him—that the former All-Pro, after a decade in the league and with his 32nd birthday coming in November, has lost his burst. An executive from another team who also was in the market for a receiver saw it as being a little more nuanced than that.
“I don’t know if I agree that he’s lost it so much as that he’s just older, and that’s what the market says on older players,” says the AFC exec. “He’s not always healthy, which is part of that. By the end of last year, he looked good, his legs were back. Now, does he need to play himself back into shape? The offseason stuff being in the contract would be important for me. But you’re late on that, and can’t put workout bonuses in now.
“He signed so late in Baltimore, that he had to play himself back into shape. And when he did, his burst came back, and he could still do a lot of the normal OBJ stuff.”
But even then, the numbers weren’t there. He finished with 35 catches for 565 yards and three touchdowns, and had four catches for 34 yards in two playoff games with a league MVP at quarterback. Rookie Zay Flowers was the top guy in the offense after Mark Andrews went down, and Beckham didn’t do a ton to distinguish himself from Nelson Agholor and Rashod Bateman, both of whom the Ravens have back for 2024 (with Bateman on a new deal).
Now, that’s not to say he can’t help Miami. He’s different than Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and his ability to be a physical run-after-catch receiver is still there. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel was in San Francisco when the 49ers flirted with acquiring Beckham, so he’s clearly had plenty of time to think about how to use him. So he went to a good place.
I’d just say it’d be smart, at this point, to temper expectations on him.
The New York Jets followed their board. And their needs, too. Let’s start here—Olu Fashanu was a very clear pick for New York at 10, and then 11 after they flipped spots with the Vikings so Minnesota wouldn’t miss out on Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy. And the story on that one goes back past the big left tackle’s final season at Penn State.
Coming into the season, the Jets viewed Fashanu as at least the equal of, and probably a better prospect than, Cardinals rookie Paris Johnson Jr., drafted sixth last year out of Ohio State. As summer turned to fall, Fashanu’s standing in the eyes of scouts did slip a little, and in particular because of how he played against Johnson’s old Buckeyes teammates in October. But Jets GM Joe Douglas and his staff had a different view of it.
Within that game, with Ohio State carrying two future NFL edge rushers and potential 2025 first-rounders in J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, yes, Fashanu got beat. But he also showed resilience in adjusting. In particular, there was a play early in the game where Tuimoloau beat Fashanu with an inside power move, where the pass rusher knocked the tackle back on his heels. Later in the game, with Penn State backed up to the goal line, Tuimoloau tried the same move, and Fashanu stoned him.
So even in his worst game, he was better than most. And then there were some of the comps, with a key one being how he played against Michigan’s Ravens-style defense, one that throws a lot at an offensive lineman. Compared to how Alabama’s JC Latham and Washington’s Troy Fautanu played against the same defense in the playoffs, Fashanu’s performance stood out and it happened, again, in a game that didn’t go the Nittany Lions’ way.
Putting all of that together, the Jets saw a guy who could be a long-term answer at one of the most important positions on the field. So the plan for now is to work with him at that position behind Tyron Smith rather than move him somewhere else.
All of that made the decision pretty simple for the Jets. The one who’d have complicated it for New York was Washington WR Rome Odunze. When the Bears took Odunze, the pick became academic (Fautanu would’ve been one fallback plan in the unlikely event neither Fashanu or Odunze made it to 10; Georgia’s Brock Bowers would’ve been another). And once Fashanu was aboard, their attention turned to receiver.
Similarly, that call came down to a few guys. The Jets actually liked Texas’s Adonai Mitchell, but got focused on the best run-after-catch guys they could find in range of their second pick at 72. Part of the reasoning was the history of the best of those receivers—Deebo Samuel in 2019, Brandon Aiyuk in '20, Garrett Wilson in '22, and Flowers last year (Kadarius Toney in '21 was the exception, for other reasons)—in each class translating easily to the NFL game.
And that’s where Western Kentucky’s Malachi Corley and Michigan’s Roman Wilson came into focus, with Corley getting the edge because, where both were wired the right way and competed, he was 30 pounds heavier and, accordingly, played with more violence. At any rate, you’ll get to weigh that one out because the Jets could’ve gotten Wilson at 72, and instead gave up the 157th pick (CB Chau Smith-Wade) to land Corley.
For now, though, the Jets are pretty happy with how all of this played out. The reality? It was going to be a lot harder to get a tackle (if it’d been Odunze at 11, the Jets probably would’ve gone with Yale’s Kiran Amegadjie at 72), along with just how much they thought of both of the guys they picked.
For all of the criticism Buffalo Bills GM Brandon Beane took for trading with the Kansas City Chiefs in the first round, his reasoning was logical. And, yes, I understand it—and how the idea of arming the rival Chiefs with a guy who runs like Tyreek Hill (though Texas burner Xavier Worthy isn’t really built like the ex-Kansas City star at all) might give people in Buffalo the shakes.
The optics may not be great. But the reality Beane was working with had three elements to it. One, the Bills actually had a comfort level with all three of the receivers that came off the board between 28 and 33. Two, they had a 68-slot gap in picks early in the draft, after using their third-rounder to get Rasul Douglas from the Packers in October after Tre’Davious White’s injury. Three, in the aftermath of March’s roster reset, they had a lot of holes to fill.
On the first reality, the situation was almost the reverse of last year for the Bills, when Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid stood alone on the Bills’ board, prompting a trade up. That Buffalo had Worthy, South Carolina’s Xavier Legette and Florida State’s Keon Coleman right there with each other gave Beane the flexibility to deal to address the second reality, in order to service the third reality. In deals with the Chiefs and Panthers, the Bills moved the 133rd pick to 95, slipping into that gap between 60 and 128, while moving two other picks up 27 (248 to 221) and 59 (200 to 141) slots to still land Coleman.
Beane, like the rest of the league, knew the Chiefs could take Worthy, and that the Panthers and his old pro director/new Carolina GM Dan Morgan were looking to arm Bryce Young with another weapon. So that he was left with one of the three didn’t surprise him, and thathe was down to one of the three is why he resisted moving anymore, as offers for the pick came pouring in the day before the first round.
Buffalo ended up with a receiver whose biggest question was his timed speed, but who had the GPS tracking data of someone running in the 4.5s, and who was shifty enough, at 6’3”, to return punts as a collegian. Plus, combining that agility and ability to drop his weight as a bigger guy with a 38-inch vertical, the Bills thought, because he’s just 20 years old, he’d have the ceiling to get more explosive as a player (Legette, by comparison, is already 23).
One other interesting piece on Coleman was that he had the fastest gauntlet time, hitting 20.36 MPH, of any receiver at the combine, which translates to play speed.
All of which, again, isn’t to say that the Bills didn’t like Worthy or Legette. They did. But with those three in a cluster, getting one of them, while landing a third pick in the top 100 so they could come away with two players (Utah S Cole Bishop/Duke DT DeWayne Carter) on Day 2 rather than just one while improving their Day 3 standing simply made the most sense at the time.
Now, we’ll get to see if it looks that way once these guys get on the field.
There are two ways to look at Travis Kelce’s new contract in Kansas City. One would be that it is, indeed, a lot to pay for a tight end entering his 12th NFL season and turning 35 in October. The other would be that Kelce is one of the three bedrocks of the Chiefs dynasty, there’s value throughout your organization in rewarding that, and what a great tight end makes falls well short of what receivers, left tackles, defensive ends and corners make anyway.
Here's what you need to know on the deal …
• It’s a two-year, $34.25 million deal. It’s not an extension. Kelce had two years and $30.25 million left on his existing deal, without any guarantees. His pay for 2024, as part of the reworked contract, ticked up from $13 million to $17 million, and the Chiefs guaranteed all that money for him at signing.
• The second year remains at $17.25 million, and it’s not guaranteed yet. However, the Chiefs broke that money up, and put $11.5 million in a roster bonus that’ll be due on the third day of the 2025 league year. Which means, by mid-March, most of Kelce’s money for '25 will be locked in, creating an early decision point for the team to keep him aboard (not that it was looming as a big question).
• There are no void years on the back end to spread out the cap hit. The Chiefs, as a loose rule, try not to use that mechanism. They do restructure deals to create space (see: Mahomes, Patrick), but they’re usually pushing money into existing years on the contracts.
And, again, while $17.125 million per year is the most a tight end has ever gotten, it’s not crazy in the context of what receivers pull down. That’s what Jerry Jeudy will make with the Cleveland Browns after four mostly disappointing years with Denver. It’s less than what Christian Kirk is making in Jacksonville or Diontae Johnson made before he was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers. So even if Kelce slips a little, and he did before rallying in the playoffs last year, chances are slim that this will look like a bad deal for the Chiefs.
So everyone wins on that one.
When I went back over the deal that A.J. Brown got from the Philadelphia Eagles, one thing that stood out to me was the amount of money the team has tied up in void years. Brown’s cap charges for the six years on his contract are as follows (2024 to '29)—$5.15 million, $10.91 million, $16.78 million, $20.71 million, $27.62 million, and $29.31 million. Add it together, and you get to $110.48 million, which is $53.52 million short of the $164 million that Brown is due between now and the end of '28.
The rest of those cap dollars went to void years, all $53.52 million. And void years have become an increasingly commonly used mechanism to simply spread cap hits out over a longer period of time, allowing for less pain now (and more of it later) as a team rewards its best players.
Looking at that outsized figure made me wonder how much of this the Eagles have done. I knew they’d done at least some of it. Turns out, every big Philly deal has void years: Jalen Hurts ($97.55 million), DeVonta Smith ($35.78 million), Jordan Mailata ($35.6 million), Landon Dickerson ($35.09 million), Darius Slay ($24.94 million), Dallas Goedert ($23.83 million), Lane Johnson ($22.48 million), James Bradberry ($21.39 million), Josh Sweat ($16.39 million), Chauncey Gardner-Johnson ($13.76 million), Brandon Graham ($10.27 million), Jake Elliott ($8.61 million) and, of course, Brown.
By my math, those 13 contracts have more than $399 million in cap dollars moved into years that void at the end of those deals—and there’s more of that on shorter-term deals such as those the Eagles gave to Devin White and Zack Baun.
That’s a staggering figure, and it explains why Philly seems to have so much flexibility each year.
So, in practical terms, what does it mean?
First and foremost, and similar to New Orleans, it shows a very real commitment from ownership to winning, because all of that money being accounted for three and four and five years from now is matched with cash going out the door during the actual life of the deal. Indeed, last year, against a $224.8 million cap, the Eagles spent $257.2 million in cash, third league-wide behind only the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens. This year, Philly is one of two teams set to spend more than $300 million in cash (Cleveland is the other one).
All told, Philly could approach $600 million in player spending over a two-year span through which the cap is at $480.6 million. Again, it’s a tribute to Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie, because a lot of owners would not be willing to do that.
Second, that money doesn’t disappear against the cap. And this is where things get interesting. Because the figures have to be accounted for, the Eagles will walk a tightrope financially in offloading players at the right time (remember, the above numbers assume you see every deal through, and savings can be had if you cut ties early), spending on the right guys and drafting well to supplement years when more dead money is taken on.
In other words, GM Howie Roseman and the front office are gambling to win now, and that they’ll get a lot of things right going forward. Because a reckoning would come for them if they don’t.
Marvin Harrison Jr. was right, Caleb Williams was right, and more playing moving forward will make their decisions on the lead-up to the draft accordingly. The end result really does make this one academic. Williams went No. 1, so he couldn’t have gone any higher than he did. And you could argue the same for Harrison, since he was the first nonquarterback drafted.
Both made waves during the week of the NFL Scouting Combine for the approach they took. Williams declined to take a physical in Indianapolis on the premise that it made no sense for him to give his full medical information to 31 teams that wouldn’t have a chance to draft him. Harrison declined to work out or test there or at his pro day, with the idea being that rather than wasting time and money on training for Olympic testing, he’d be best simply preparing for rookie year.
In the end, it did no damage to either guy.
The Chicago Bears got Williams’s medicals on the 30 visit, and 31 teams that are now his rivals don’t have information that could be damaging to him or Chicago. The Arizona Cardinals, meanwhile, are ecstatic to get a player who will be ready to hit the ground running at rookie minicamp and OTAs after training with the Ohio State strength staff as he would if he were suiting up to play football for the Buckeyes in the fall.
Williams, for his part, only visited the Bears, while Harrison only visited Chicago and Arizona.
Now, here’s the other thing to remember—few players have the leverage to do what these guys did. In most cases, players need to give teams as much information as they possibly can to get those teams comfortable with the idea of drafting them. That’s a non-issue for very few.
But going forward, if you’re in the super elite class, what will you do? Probably follow the lead of Williams and Harrison, and handle the pre-draft process a la carte, only doing what is in your own personal best interest.
In the end, I’m counting 18 of 32 first-round picks from 2021 as having had their fifth-year options picked up. That’s counting guys who got extensions (DeVonta Smith, Penei Sewell) with the fifth-year option factored in (Rashod Bateman, who did a lower-end extension, doesn’t fit that description). And it’s a high number, for sure.
Last year, using the same logic (which counts Jordan Love as having had his picked up), just 13 of the 32 guys taken in the first round in 2020 qualified.
That number was by far the lowest since the rookie salary scale went into effect with the 2011 draft class. But there was a caveat to it—it was also the first year that the options were fully guaranteed upon being picked up, meaning teams couldn’t simply cut the guy a year later, so long as he was healthy.
What that tells you? The 2021 class, with players such as Trevor Lawrence, Micah Parsons and Ja’Marr Chase as headliners, was a very bumper crop of high-end players. And as such, Smith and Sewell will likely be just the first of a slew of these guys to sign blockbuster extensions before the start of their fourth seasons.
I do have one last take on the Atlanta Falcons’ handling of the quarterback situation. And that’s that I would 100% understand if Kirk Cousins is still stinging a bit from the whole ordeal.
Here’s why—a reason he decided to leave Minnesota is because the Vikings were very up front with the 35-year-old about the possibility that, even in the case he stayed, they’d take a quarterback of the future high in the draft. Tying that together with the team’s willingness to guarantee part, but not all, of a second year on another contract, Cousins figured that, if he stayed, there was a good shot that he’d be on the move in 2025.
I know Cousins appreciated how open the Vikings were about their draft strategy, even if it meant him leaving.
So if you were him, how would you feel when that call came, as his new team was on the clock, to explain how the Falcons were taking his heir apparent, Michael Penix Jr., with the eighth pick? Now, I do understand why Atlanta felt the need to keep it quiet, and why GM Terry Fontenot’s experience in New Orleans in 2017, when the Chiefs knew the Saints coveted Patrick Mahomes and jumped ahead of them to get him, marked the decision not to tell Cousins of their plans.
Still, it had to be a crappy call to take if you were Cousins, considering the basis of the decision you’d made six weeks earlier. It remains to be seen, of course, if that’ll lead to any sort of early fissure in the player-team relationship there. I think they’ll be able to get past it, because head coach Raheem Morris is a phenomenal relationship guy, and Cousins is an adult. But if there are early bumps in the season, this one will be interesting to watch.
I still don’t get the people who are so into the Pittsburgh Steelers trading for a big-name veteran receiver. It’s never been Pittsburgh’s m.o. to do something like that at that particular position. And I can’t imagine trading Johnson is some sort of big needle-mover in this regard, either.
Pittsburgh’s drafted 19 receivers over the last 18 draft cycles. The highest pick spent in the bunch was on Chase Claypool, who went 49th in 2020. Yet, without spending more than that on the position, they’ve wound up with Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Wallace, Martavis Bryant, Juju Smith-Schuster, James Washington, George Pickens, Johnson and Claypool, all of whom wound up producing to varying degrees for the team.
On top of that, the last time the Steelers’ leading receiver wasn’t homegrown was in the year the United States entered World War II—1941 (Don Looney, if you’re scoring at home). And over the years, Pittsburgh has been able to replace guys such as Plaxico Burress, Wallace, Sanders and Brown as they’ve left the organization.
All of this history, of course, bodes well for the 84th pick in this year’s draft, Roman Wilson.
And probably not as well for those waiting on the Steelers to take some big swing on a vet.
I need to give my thanks to everyone, all of you included, for following along through this offseason, now that things have calmed down. That goes for our editors, and our NFL writers, and, again, for all you readers.
Conor Orr and I did this sort of thank you on the MMQB podcast last week, but I’ll repeat it here.
It’s no secret that it’s been a challenging three months at Sports Illustrated. It’d have been easy for people to take their collective foot off the gas, but I’m real proud of our NFL team for refusing to let that happen. And I’m grateful to all of you that kept coming back.