It took just one game — one quarter really — of the 2024 NBA Finals for the Boston Celtics to show why they had the best record in the NBA in the 2023-24 season and led the league in net rating.
Boston jumped out to the biggest first quarter lead in a Game 1 in NBA Finals history, and it didn’t let Dallas get closer than eight points the rest of the way in a blowout win.
The C’s came into this series as -210 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, giving them an implied probability of over 60 percent to win the title. That has already changed drastically after Boston’s Game 1 win.
Based on the latest odds at DraftKings, Boston has an implied probability of 80 percent to win the NBA Finals this season. While it was only one game, it’s clear that Boston’s dominance has altered the betting market in a big way.
A historical trend that dates back to the 1996-97 season also favors Boston, as no team that has finished outside the top eight in net rating during the regular season has gone on to win the NBA Finals since then.
Dallas is attempting to break that trend this season.
Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
For bettors that still believe in the Mavericks, there is something to hang your hat on after Game 1.
Jason Kidd was just 1-5 (now 1-6) in Game 1s as the Mavericks’ head coach, but he’s led his team to a 5-1 series record so far in two playoff runs. Kidd has made the adjustments — and his team has responded — after other poor showings in series openers in the playoffs this season.
As a bettor who already has a Celtics future from the preseason in pocket, I’m standing pat ahead of Sunday’s Game 2 based on the latest odds movement.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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There are no issues between Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Pressure? Well …
Last week, the four-letter network made waves by reigniting a long-dormant debate about Tatum and Brown’s relationship. Only there is no debate. Tatum and Brown are fine. Always have been. They have known each other since high school, when they competed at an Under Armour camp. They are, as Brown noted last week, “polar opposites.” But whenever the trade rumors swirled around Brown over the years, Tatum has backed him. When Tatum won a gold medal at the 2021 Olympics, Brown celebrated with him. In ’22, while reporting a Sports Illustrated cover story on the Boston Celtics, I asked Tatum’s longtime trainer, Drew Hanlen, if he had any thoughts on the Tatum-Brown relationship.
“Jayson brags about how good Jaylen is,” Hanlen told me. “How there aren’t many players he would trade straight up for him. Any narrative that they didn’t like each other, that they can’t win together is totally made up.”
Indeed, they can win together. Boston has made six conference finals in the Tatum-Brown era. Two NBA Finals. Four seasons of 50-plus wins. In a league that covets elite two-way wings, the Celtics have a pair of them.
Still, Boston’s duo has reached a critical juncture. The 2022 Finals defeat was disappointing. But, in a way, excusable. The Golden State Warriors were elite. They had championship-level talent and years of experience with it. Did the Celtics gag away a potential 3–1 series lead in Game 4? Maybe. More accurate would be Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and the Warriors went out and took it.
“This time, this go-around is a lot different,” Tatum said. “You don’t always get a second chance, so really just looking at it as a second chance and trying to simplify things as much as we can.”
Curry shoots the ball against Tatum and Brown during Game 5 of the 2022 NBA Finals. / Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Added Al Horford, “The first time [in 2022], it felt like a roller coaster, just a lot going on, increased coverage in media, all the responsibilities we had and everything that came with it. This time around, we all have an understanding. We know what things are like and I feel like we’ll be able to manage it better.”
This year, there are no Warriors. The Dallas Mavericks are good. They have Luka Doncic, a superstar. Kyrie Irving, a premiere wingman. P.J. Washington, Dereck Lively II and Derrick Jones Jr. can play. The defense has improved considerably since midseason acquisitions to acquire Washington and Daniel Gafford. While the Celtics were cruising through the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers, the Mavericks were muscling out the Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves.
Still, the Celtics are heavy favorites. They are six deep with All-Star–level talent. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are elite defenders. Kristaps Porzingis, who appears to be tracking toward a Game 1 return, is a terror on both ends of the floor. Horford, who celebrated his 38th birthday on Monday, is ageless.
And they have Tatum and Brown. This has not been a flawless postseason run. There have been some clunkers. Tatum’s 7-for-17 performance in a Game 2 loss to Cleveland. Brown’s 0-for-6 three-point stat line in the same game. But the Celtics are 12–2 in the playoffs, with Tatum (26.0 points on 44.2% shooting) and Brown (25.0 points, 54.1% shooting) leading the way.
Now, though, comes the real test. The scrutiny of Tatum and Brown’s relationship is unfair. “The whole thing about that really pisses me off,” coach Joe Mazzulla said. Raising expectations for their play is not. Curry and Thompson won’t be remembered for conference championships. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray aren’t defined by 50-win seasons. If Tatum and Brown want to be regarded as an elite duo, they need to win a title.
For years, Tatum has been among the NBA’s most scrutinized stars. He’s a great scorer … just not always in the clutch. He’s a strong defender … just not one of the best. Even as Tatum’s game has grown—in the post, at the rim, in his playmaking—he’s often viewed as a cut below the NBA’s best.
Brown, too. Brown signed the richest contract in NBA history last summer. He responded with a season (23.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, a career-best 3.6 assists) worthy of it. In Boston, Brown will always be the second star. But that doesn’t mean he can’t be one of the best wings in the game.
Mazzulla and Brown understand the magnitude of what is at stake in the 2024 Finals. / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
“As long as my team knows my value, my city knows my value, my family, that’s all I really care about,” Brown said. “But I like to set my hat on just being a versatile two-way wing [who] can do both at any point in time.”
Tatum and Brown understand the stakes. A series win springboards them into rarified air, a tandem with a title, and a chance to win more. A loss opens them up for criticism and more questions about whether the pairing really works.
“I think [it’s unfair] being compared to each other,” Mazzulla said. “They’re different. And you see other duos around the league don’t have to go through that. And it’s because of the platform that they have. It’s because they’ve been so successful their entire careers. They’ve been able to long stand success at a high level.”
Now it’s time to do it at the highest. Two years ago, in the immediate aftermath of a Game 6 loss, Tatum slumped in his locker. In TD Garden, the visiting locker room is directly across from the home one, making the roar of the Warriors’ celebration unavoidable. Walking to his car that night, Tatum could hear the Champagne-soaked afterparty still raging. He vowed never to forget that feeling. He swore he would never let an opportunity like that slip away again. Two years later, Tatum, still alongside Brown, will get that chance.
If the Cleveland Cavaliers were looking for bulletin board material heading into their Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Celtics, all they’d have to do is look at the odds.
Recent NBA betting scandals notwithstanding, it's clear oddsmakers don't think the Cavs stand any chance against Boston. In fact, sportsbooks are giving the Cavs a better chance of getting swept than upsetting the top-ranked Celtics, and it’s really not even close.
The Celtics are -3000 to win the series at FanDuel Sportsbook and -1200 to win at DraftKings. That means those sportsbooks are giving the Celtics an implied probability to win the series of 96.8% and 92.3% respectively.
Even more telling, the Celtics are +140 at FanDuel and +170 at DraftKings to win the series 4-0. Those are the shortest odds of any correct series score. The Celtics winning 4-1 has the second shortest odds at +170 and +190, respectively.
For context, even after winning Game 1, the Knicks are only -440 at FanDuel to win their Eastern Conference semifinal series.
This is not exactly surprising.
The Celtics have been the betting favorites to win the NBA championship most of the season and remain so today. They are +100 to win the title at FanDuel and +115 at DraftKings.
The Cavs are +10000 and +8000 at those books, respectively, the longest odds of any playoff team.
All of this paints a grim picture for the Cavs, even more so when you consider the Celtics are expected to be without their third-leading scorer from the regular season, Kristaps Porzingis, who is dealing with a calf injury and is not expected to play the entirety of the series.
The Cavs are at full strength but struggled to beat a young Orlando Magic team in the first round of the playoffs. The series went seven games and the Magic had the Cavs on the ropes in the first half of Game 7 before Donovan Mitchell took over and willed Cleveland into the second round.
Led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the Celtics easily dispatched the Miami Heat in five games in the first round, though the Heat were without Jimmy Butler.
It’s clear oddsmakers believe in the duo of Tatum and Brown, not only against the Cavs, but against anyone in the league. The Cavs could look at that as an insult and use it as motivation. It won’t matter to oddsmakers though. It seems their belief is near certainty, at least in this round.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Neither team shot the ball particularly well in Game 2 of the 2024 NBA Finals, but it was the Boston Celtics who emerged victorious over the Dallas Mavericks, securing a 2–0 lead in the series following Sunday's 105–98 win.
Jrue Holiday led the charge offensively for the Celtics, proving particularly effective from in around the rim as he scored a team-high 26 points on 11 for 14 shooting. Jaylen Brown played prolific two-way ball once again, providing lockdown defense while also contributing his share on offense with 21 points.
Jayson Tatum's shooting woes continued, but as has often been the case during the postseason, Boston's depth was able to help overcome that. Tatum shot 6 for 22 from the field, but was an excellent facilitator as he racked up 12 assists and added nine rebounds.
Dallas didn't go down quietly though. The Mavs cut a 14-point deficit into just five with around one minute left, but an emphatic Derrick White block put a stopper on the comeback hopes and capped off the win for Boston.
Kristaps Porzingis, who made his return to the starting lineup on Sunday, exited during the fourth quarter after suffering an apparent leg injury. He remained in the game briefly before checking out for Al Horford and did not return. His status will be something to monitor going forward.
For the Mavericks, it often felt that if Luka Doncic wasn't scoring, the team's offense simply wasn't functioning. Doncic provided 32 of Dallas's 98 points, shooting 12 for 21 from the field despite not being at full strength. Although he registered a triple-double in just the second NBA Finals game of his career, he also had eight turnovers in the loss, struggling to take care of the ball against the stalwart Boston defense.
Apart from Doncic, the rest of the team shot 26 for 59 (44%), including a woeful 2 for 17 (11.7%) showing from three-point range. Kyrie Irving had another lackluster performance with 16 points and six assists, marking his second consecutive game without making a single three.
The series will shift to Dallas for Games 3 and 4, and the Mavericks will need to get the job done on Wednesday if they want to avoid the perilous 3–0 deficit, which no team has ever overcome in NBA history.