It took just one game — one quarter really — of the 2024 NBA Finals for the Boston Celtics to show why they had the best record in the NBA in the 2023-24 season and led the league in net rating.
Boston jumped out to the biggest first quarter lead in a Game 1 in NBA Finals history, and it didn’t let Dallas get closer than eight points the rest of the way in a blowout win.
The C’s came into this series as -210 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, giving them an implied probability of over 60 percent to win the title. That has already changed drastically after Boston’s Game 1 win.
Based on the latest odds at DraftKings, Boston has an implied probability of 80 percent to win the NBA Finals this season. While it was only one game, it’s clear that Boston’s dominance has altered the betting market in a big way.
A historical trend that dates back to the 1996-97 season also favors Boston, as no team that has finished outside the top eight in net rating during the regular season has gone on to win the NBA Finals since then.
Dallas is attempting to break that trend this season.
Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
For bettors that still believe in the Mavericks, there is something to hang your hat on after Game 1.
Jason Kidd was just 1-5 (now 1-6) in Game 1s as the Mavericks’ head coach, but he’s led his team to a 5-1 series record so far in two playoff runs. Kidd has made the adjustments — and his team has responded — after other poor showings in series openers in the playoffs this season.
As a bettor who already has a Celtics future from the preseason in pocket, I’m standing pat ahead of Sunday’s Game 2 based on the latest odds movement.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
BOSTONâKristaps Porzingis didnât want to talk about it.
âIt didnât work out,â Porzingis said.
Luka Doncic wanted nothing to do with it.
âMoved on,â Doncic said.
Tim Hardaway Jr. didnât want to touch it.
âI think thatâs a question for them,â Hardaway said.
It is the question of why Doncic and Porzingis, teammates for 2½ seasons with the Dallas Mavericks, didnât pan out. In 2019, Dallas, midway through Doncicâs rookie season, made what qualified as a blockbuster trade, flipping a pair of first-round picks to the New York Knicks for a package headlined by Porzingis. In Porzingis, a then-23-year-old forward coming off an All-Star season, the Mavericks believed they had landed an ideal co-star for Doncic who would form the foundation for a title contender. Then-Dallas coach Rick Carlisle likened Doncic and Porzingis to another pair of Mavs stars, Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki.
âOnly these guys,â Carlisle said, âare taller.â
It wasnât. By 2022, Porzingis was gone, offloaded for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans. Porzingisâs numbers in his final 34 games in Dallas: 19.2 points on 45.1% shooting, including 28.3% from three.
âWe had some good moments,â Porzingis said. âWe had some decent moments. Overall I think it didn't work for both sides. It wasnât perfect.â
Said Doncic, âI donât really know. I donât know why it didnât work out. We were still both young. We tried to make it work. But it just didnât work.â
Ask around the Mavericks about the Porzingis era, one that began with Carlisle as head coach and ended with Jason Kidd, and you hear many of the same things. The relationship with Doncic wasnât a significant issue. âItâs always been good,â Porzingis insisted. Injuries were certainly a factor. Porzingis was traded while recovering from an ACL tear and tore his meniscus late in his first full season. Porzingis resisted Dallasâs analytics-based approach. He struggled in a catch-and-shoot role under Carlisle and couldnât find a rhythm under Kidd.
âI thought it was going well in the sense of our defense, his ability to block shots, rebound,â Kidd said. âThen offensively we looked to post him up a little bit more than Rick had used him, which was strictly on the perimeter shooting threes. Both worked. He has the skill set to do both. I thought KP did great for us. But the business of basketball, there was a pivot. So from there things changed.â
With the Boston Celtics, Porzingis has been the kind of fit the Mavericks had hoped for. He averaged 20.1 points. He shot a career-best 51.5% from the floor. He connected on 37.5% of his threes. He blocked nearly two shots per game, backstopping the NBAâs third-rated defense.
Asked when he knew Porzingis would be a good fit, Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said, âright away.â
âI think all he cares about is winning,â Mazzulla said. âHeâs used the experiences heâs had around the league. Heâs seen a lot. Heâs seen it all. Heâs seen success. Heâs seen tough times. He knows what the league is all about. I think at this point in his career, winning is the most important thing.â
Indeed, at 28, Porzingis has seen a lot. He was the unicorn in New York, a budding superstar ⌠until he wasnât. Dallas was a disaster. He put up numbers with the Washington Wizards for a team going nowhere. Boston afforded him a unique opportunity: a role he was ready for on a team that needed him to win.
âKP essentially did exactly what we needed him to do the entire season,â Jayson Tatum said. âWhether it was punish switches or space the five man and be in the corner. Sometimes that might be going possessions without touching the ball or it may be when theyâre switching, we give him the ball five times in a row. I give KP a lot of credit. Especially somebody as talented as he is and obviously as tall as he is, a lot of big guys may be stuck in their ways doing what makes him comfortable. He got outside his comfort zone a little bit and it made us a better team.â
Porzingisâs ability to be that player in the NBA Finals is an open question. He has not played since late April, since a calf strain sidelined him. He says he will play in Game 1 on Thursday. Boston did not list him on its injury report. But even Porzingis admits heâs not sure how sharp he is going to be.
âI did as much as I could to prepare for this moment,â Porzingis said. âBut thereâs nothing like game minutes and game experience that Iâm going to get tomorrow. It will be tough to jump into the Finals like this. I did everything I could to prepare for it and weâll see [Thursday] night.â
And Dallas? Porzingis is eager to beat the Mavs. But he insists none of it is personal.
âI know at that time there were some rumors thereâs like something in the locker room,â Porzingis said. âIt was never like that. Itâs all just noise at the end. It wasnât just perfect for us playing together. It didnât work out, thatâs it. We moved on. Thereâs no, like, ill will from their side, for sure from my side. I donât think there should be. Just didnât work out. But I have nothing but love for Dallas and for the teammates and for everybody there.â
Last week, as thousands of green-clad fans spilled out of TD Garden and onto nearby Causeway St. still buzzingâand for many, still buzzedâfrom Bostonâs Game 2 win over Indiana, an unmistakable chant filled the warm spring air.
We want Kyrie âŚ
We want Kyrie âŚ
It will be Dallas vs. Boston in the NBA Finals. Itâs also Boston vs. Kyrie. Five years after Kyrie Irvingâs abrupt exit, public (basketball) enemy No. 1 is back in town. They have met in the playoffs before, with Irvingâs Nets wiping the floor with a battered Boston team in 2021 and the Celtics sweeping Brooklyn in â22.
A trip to the second round was at stake in those series.
Said Irving, âBoston is in the way between our goal.â
In Boston, the disdain for Irving runs deep. Heâs Ulf Samuelsson in high tops. Roger Goodell in gym shorts. The most disliked NBA player since Bill Laimbeer. What Reggie Miller is to New York, Irving is to Boston. The only difference is Miller never wore a Knicks uniform. On eBay, you can still buy Irving jerseys in Celtics green.
Time heals most wounds. Not these. These have barely scabbed over. Irving has not exactly attempted to ease the tension. In 2021, before Irving returned to Boston for a first-round playoff series with Brooklyn, he said he hoped not to hear any âsubtle racism.â After beating the Celtics in Game 4, Irving walked to center court and stomped on the logo.
There will inevitably be attempts to rewrite history in the days ahead. Irving didnât hate Boston. He just wanted to go home to New York. He didnât have bad relationships with his teammates. Thatâs media stuff, reporters chasing clicks. He didnât bail out on his team late in the 2018-19 season. Those Celtics just didnât have enough.
Nonsense. He wasnât on the same page as Brad Stevens. He didnât have much of a relationship with Jaylen Brown. Quit is probably too strong of a word but talk to enough people around that 2018-19 team and itâs clear thereâs a belief that late in the season, Irving checked out. In the fall of â18, Irving grabbed a mic and told a giddy Garden crowd he intended to re-sign there. By the spring, he was gone.
On Sunday, Irving talked about how he better understands leadership. In Boston, he struggled with it. Irving was the only member of the Celtics core with a championship, a status he was known to wield like a cudgel. He knew what it took to winâand he had the ring to prove it. During one locker room discussion, sources told SI, it was pointed out that Al Horford won two championships at Florida. Not the same, Irving said. A Boston assistant was part of a championship staff in Europe. Not the same, he replied. Aron Baynes, a reserve center on the Celtics 2018-19 team who won a title with San Antonio, wasnât in the room for the exchange. At least one ex-teammate wonders what Irving would have said if he was.
Things never fully clicked for Irving (11) in Boston. / Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
In Dallas, things are different. Throughout the organization, respect for Irving runs deep. He has been an extension of Jason Kidd on the floor. He has been a calming influence off of it. He has figured out how to succeed opposite Luka DonÄiÄ, creating an all-time great duo in the process. When Irving returned from a leg injury in January, team officials marveled at the effort Irving was putting in on the defensive end of the floor.
Asked about the skepticism of Irvingâs fit in Dallas, Kidd said, âItâs alright to be wrong.â
Some of it is Irving, at 32, facing reality. He has played on three teams in the last six seasons. Four in the last eight. Cleveland, Boston, BrooklynâVesuvius left less wreckage. When Irving hit free agency last summer, Dallas was the only team offering real money to sign him.
Some of it is Dallas. The warm Texas climate and its right leaning politics. âHe still will have his opinions of what he thinks,â said Kidd. âAnd here with the Mavs, we support that.â In Kidd, Irving has found a peer. Irving grew up watching Kidd in New Jersey. When Irving was in high school, they connected at a Nike event. âHe was pretty good,â said Kidd. Inside the Dallas locker room, the bond between Irving and Kidd is ironclad.
âJust being able to talk the truth or speak the truth to one another,â said Kidd. âI compliment him for trusting me. I'm only here to tell him the truth and to try to help him achieve his goals.â
Kidd knows what itâs like to be a villain in Boston, his Nets years filled with fierce Celtics battles. Kidd was fueled by the hate. At times, Irving has seemed rattled by it. Irving has faced the Celtics 10 times since the 2021 playoffs. He has lost each one. He has had several dustups with fans, admitting in â22 that the crass attacks were âabout so much you can take as a competitor.â It was bad then. It will be worse now.
âIâm at a place in my life where I donât consider those past moments,â Irving told ESPN. âI was able to unpack them in a healthy way [and] move forward as a person. I had a rough time there when I was in Boston, dealing with a death in my family and a lot of off-court stuff that I wasnât ready to handle. Now that Iâm in a great place to be able to vocalize how Iâm feeling, Iâm ready to go back into Boston and have fun with my teammates.â
Fun? Thatâs up to Irving. Dallas needs a poised Irving. A composed one. This will be a difficult series. The Celtics are 2â0 against the Mavericks this season. They beat them by nine before the trades that brought P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford to Dallas. They beat them by 28 after. They have elite defenders, dynamic wing scorers and will likely have a healthy Kristaps PorziĹÄŁis when the series begins next week.
âThey have a lot of talented players,â said Kidd. âThey've been [to the Finals] before. They have the experience, they're well coached. This is another great test.â
They need Irving. DonÄiÄ will get his points. The All-NBA guard is enjoying one of the finest stretches of his career. But he will need help. He will need Irving to be the shot maker he was in the conference finals, where he averaged 27 pointsâincluding 36 in Game 5âon 49% shooting. The three-point shooter (42.3%) he has been in the playoffs. The All-Star-level sidekick he has been all season.
Irving is coming to Boston, and make no mistake: a hyped up Boston crowd will be waiting. The boos will be loud, the rhetoric nasty. It will be the most intense environment Irving has played in and this time, everything is at stake. A championship is within reach for Kyrie Irving. Itâs the Celtics, itâs Boston standing in front of it.
