It took just one game — one quarter really — of the 2024 NBA Finals for the Boston Celtics to show why they had the best record in the NBA in the 2023-24 season and led the league in net rating.
Boston jumped out to the biggest first quarter lead in a Game 1 in NBA Finals history, and it didn’t let Dallas get closer than eight points the rest of the way in a blowout win.
The C’s came into this series as -210 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, giving them an implied probability of over 60 percent to win the title. That has already changed drastically after Boston’s Game 1 win.
Based on the latest odds at DraftKings, Boston has an implied probability of 80 percent to win the NBA Finals this season. While it was only one game, it’s clear that Boston’s dominance has altered the betting market in a big way.
A historical trend that dates back to the 1996-97 season also favors Boston, as no team that has finished outside the top eight in net rating during the regular season has gone on to win the NBA Finals since then.
Dallas is attempting to break that trend this season.
Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
For bettors that still believe in the Mavericks, there is something to hang your hat on after Game 1.
Jason Kidd was just 1-5 (now 1-6) in Game 1s as the Mavericks’ head coach, but he’s led his team to a 5-1 series record so far in two playoff runs. Kidd has made the adjustments — and his team has responded — after other poor showings in series openers in the playoffs this season.
As a bettor who already has a Celtics future from the preseason in pocket, I’m standing pat ahead of Sunday’s Game 2 based on the latest odds movement.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Kendrick Perkins wasn't thrilled with LeBron James's recent statement about former teammate Kyrie Irving ahead of the 2024 NBA Finals.
On his Mind the Game podcast with JJ Redick earlier this week, James said he is "so f------ mad" that he's not Irving's running mate anymore in the NBA.
âHere we go again,â Perkins said Thursday on ESPN. âBron weaseling his way into somebody elseâs moment ⌠This is not about you! Your team is at home. This is about the Mavs and the Celtics, but yet youâre so mad and disappointed that youâre not Kyrie Irvingâs running mate anymore. Here we go again.â
âHere we go again, [LeBron James] weaseling his way into somebody elseâs moment⌠This is not about you! Your team is at home... Youâre so mad & disappointed that youâre not Kyrie Irvingâs running mate anymore."
Irving and James played three seasons together on the Cavaliers from 2014 to '17 and brought an NBA championship to Cleveland in 2016.
In 2017, Irving asked the Cavaliers for a trade, and he ended up in Boston for two years. When that didn't work out, Irving signed with the Brooklyn Nets in 2019 and later requested another trade in 2023, where he landed with the Mavericks.
Seven years after departing James in Cleveland, things have finally come together for Irving. He and backcourt mate Luka Doncic have proven to be the NBA's best scoring duo throughout the fifth-seeded Mavericks' run to the NBA Finals.
Irving and the Mavericks tip off the NBA Finals in Game 1 on Thursday night at TD Garden.
Returning to the Boston lineup for the first time in more than five weeks, Porzingis was outstanding, finishing Game 1 with 20 points (on 8 for 13 shooting), six rebounds and three blocks. Coming off the bench for the first time this season, Porzingis made an immediate impact, racking up 11 points in the first seven minutes, helping the Celtics build a 37â20 lead.
âEven if I have time off, I can jump right back in and I feel the same way,â Porzingis said. âI get to my spots, so whether itâs playoffs, regular season or whatever, I know how to do this. Thatâs it, just having that confidence, going out there whatever, first round or Finals, just going out there with full confidence and giving what I have to the team.â
As solid as Boston was during the conference playoffsâand the Celtics lost just one game after Porzingis went out in the first round with a calf injuryâPorzingisâs return clearly makes Boston measurably better. Porzingis torched the Mavericks offensively, exploiting switches and forcing Dallasâs bigs to chase him beyond the three-point line. Defensively, Porzingis was a menace; the shots he didnât block he contested and on screens he all but dared the Mavs wing players to take the ball to the rim.
âHe was great for them,â Mavericks star guard Luka Doncic said. âHe was knocking down shots. He was blocking shots. So he was really, really huge for them on both ends of the floor.â
As thrilled as the Celtics were to get Porzingis back, the 7â2â big man was happier to be there. He received a loud ovation when he came out to warm up hours before the game. And the crowd exploded when Porzingis popped up on the JumboTron making the walk down the back hallway and onto the floor.
âGetting that kind of support was unreal,â Porzingis said. âThe adrenaline was pumping through my veins and that definitely helped. Obviously, it wasnât ideal that I was out for such a long time, but I did everything I could to prepare mentally for this moment coming back. And it paid off and we got the job done tonight and had a good game and [Iâm] happy about the result.â
Entering this series, the Celtics believed they were uniquely equipped to defend Doncic. They had two All-Defensive Team members (Jrue Holiday and Derrick White) and Jaylen Brown, who probably deserved to be on one. Doncic got his points (30 on 12 for 26 shooting) but finished the game with one assist, his lowest total of the season. The lobs that powered Dallasâs offense in the conference finals? Gone. The corner threes? Taken away. The Mavericksâ nine assists were their lowest total of the season.
âThey did a great job defending, making it tough on us,â Dallas head coach Jason Kidd said. âWe had some good looks that didnât go down. Weâve got to move the ball. The ball just stuck too much.â
Said Boston head coach Joe Mazzulla, âI thought our defensive mindset, our defensive execution, our defensive game plan, our positioning, we had the right intentions and I thought we played really physical, for the most part, defending without fouling.â
Doncic finished with 30 points but had only one assist, his lowest total of the season. / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Credit Brown, who glued himself to Doncic for most of his 37 minutes. Brown has the size and strength to stay in front of Doncic and the discipline not to bite on any of his pump-fakes. By not sending double teams, Boston shut down the rest of the Dallas offense; when Kidd waved the white flag in the fourth quarter, only two other Mavericks (Kyrie Irving and P.J. Washington) had scored in double figures and neither had more than 14 points.
âWhat you saw tonight is kind of the challenge he took for himself coming into the year,â Mazzulla said. âNot wanting to be defined by one thing. Wanting to make plays. Wanting to be a well-rounded player and get better and better. So his spacing, his ball movement, his defense on ball and off ball.â
The much-talked-about hostility from the TD Garden crowd toward Irving never materialized; itâs tough to get too fired up when your team spent most of the game leading by double digits. Irvingâs return to Boston was a dismal one: 12 points (on 6 for 19 shooting), two assists and three turnovers. While Irving had to contend with Holiday most of the night, the exâAll-Star missed a lot of open looks, including several beyond the three-point line and three in the third quarter, when Dallas briefly cut the lead to single digits.
âThey really rely on their great defensive ball pressure and one-on-one defenders,â Irving said. âThey funnel us into certain areas. Even as I say that, that they are relying on the one-on-one, every time I got an iso, thereâs almost two, three people waiting for me to get in there. I have to catch the ball on a live dribble and just be aware of my opportunities.â
The Celtics have been burying opponents in three-pointers all season, finishing first in the league in attempts (42.5 per game) and second in percentage (38.8%). In Game 1, the Celtics were 7 for 15 from three-point range in the first quarter, helping build the double-digit lead they wouldnât surrender.
Hauser had a rough conference finals, connecting on 12.5% of his shots and making just one three in a four-game sweep of the Indiana Pacers. He shook that off in Game 1, collecting eight points and making both of his three-point attempts. When Dallas went Hauser-hunting in the first half, he responded, locking up Doncic on two possessions and forcing Irving into a missed three.
Hauser shook off a rough conference finals to post a solid outing in Game 1 of the Finals. / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
NBA commissioner Adam Silver didnât provide one at his annual pre-Finals news conference. Silver declined to comment on reports the NBA had agreed to the framework of deals with ESPN, NBC and Amazon while passing on a specific question about whether or not Warner Bros. Discoveryâthe parent company for longtime NBA broadcast partner Turnerâhad the right to match any deal.
âItâs complicated for several reasons,â Silver said. âOne is the advent of new platforms, particularly streaming, and the interest of streaming companies, and then the traditional media companies also carrying our games on streaming platforms. Itâs complicated with multiple partners all seeking similar assets. In many cases, just figuring out the right way to balance those games as they go to different partners.
âWe tend to do long-term deals. We think thatâs good for the stability of the league, but it means, to a certain extent, youâre trying to predict the future, which is, of course, impossible. So part of it is a bet on the partners that we will ultimately align with and their ability also to adjust with the times and their willingness to continue to invest in media and also become global, which is very important to the league as well.â
Halftime shows are like commercials. A necessary evil and a perfect opportunity to load up on more snack mix or perform a fluids check. Few people in the history of sitting on their couches have ever been deeply intrigued by a Coming Up At the Half tease. And the hardworking broadcasting crews that try to capture eyeballs and attention are fighting an uphill battle.
That's the bad news. The good is that all of this combines to create a low-stakes environment because, let's face it, average viewers don't really care if the halftime show is good or average or a trainwreck. As long as the second half begins on time then everyone wins and no one loses.
So it's kind of perplexing to see the aggregating of grievances concerning ESPN/ABC's mid-game fare during the NBA Finals. Awful Announcing got out the stopwatch and crunched some numbers following Game 1's halftime show.
All told, the studio crew got roughly a minute and 20 seconds of air time. And remember, that time was split between five people. Much of that time was spent on intros from and outros to commercial breaks.
Is this ideal? Certainly not. But is it a new phenomenon? Also no.
ESPN/ABC has been dinged for stuffing shot-clock-length opinions and observations between a crushing amount of bells and whistles for years. Those critiquing the operation are right when they say there's no flow and it can all be a bit disorienting. But they are also a bit silly for tuning into the Finals games and expecting anything different than what has been standard operating procedure for some time now.
It feels weird to defend something that could certainly be better yet at the same time complaining that viewers aren't getting enough opinions or analysis during what is essentially a content oasis feels a bit weird. Those are available on the network before the game and after the game, plus on-demand and on social media for anyone who may have missed the thousands of words and hundreds of segments devoted to Celtics-Mavs under the ESPN umbrella.
There simply cannot be a real world faction significant enough to warrant concern-trolling that Bob Myers and Josh Hart weren't given enough time to explore the space. Or that the real world is pining for another minute of Stephen A. Smith to fire off whatever he's going to fire off.
For as often this crew is compared to TNT's iconic foursome on Inside the NBA, which does move at a more beneficial pace, there's little apples-to-oranges consideration. First, broadcasting a champioship is going to afford the opportunity â and necessity really â to be more sponsor- and commercial-heavy. Then there's the problem of people conflating TNT's long postgame coverage with its halftime hits. Sure Barkley or O'Neal might say something hilarious and go viral during the mid-game break but more often than not the focus will be on Team X not turning the ball over or how Team Y looks sleepy out there.
Sunday night's Game 2 brought more of the same because, honestly, who would think it would change in the span of a few days. Unofficial numbers suggest the commercialization outpaced the analysis at around a 6-1 clip. But we're not going to go back and chart it ourselves because almost anything is a better use of time.
Something to keep in mind for Game 3 instead of hoping for a miracle that simply isn't going to come.
