MLB Best Bets Today, June 8th (Fade Kyle Bradish and Orioles?)

June 8, 2024 Jimm Sallivan

Who wants winners on Saturday?

With 15 Major League Baseball games on the docket Saturday, I’m going across the bigs to find three best bets on the card, including how to bet the Orioles vs. Rays game on Saturday, which features one of the hottest pitchers in baseball in Kyle Bradish.

Can Bradish keep it up, or will he come back down to Earth?

Here’s my bet for that game, as well as the Nationals vs. Braves matchup and the Reds vs. Cubs matchup in a division-filled best bets slate on Saturday.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Braves vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

MacKenzie Gore has been outstanding this season, striking out a career best 27.3% of batters with a career low 3.57 ERA.

The former Padres prized prospect is starting to see perform like it and now draws a Braves team that is struggling without Ronald Acuna Jr, who tore his ACL and is out for the year. Atlanta is hitting only .211 in June.

Atlanta’s lineup is struggling and Charlie Morton may not be able to give enough help on the mound. He has a 3.88 ERA with a 3.94 xERA, but has a walk rate of nearly 11%. There are simply too many free bases given out in what may be a low scoring affiar.

Atlanta keeps getting priced like the team will stop its slide, but I’m going to take advantage and go against it.

Rays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Both starters have missed time this season, with different results, but I’m betting on it going in a different direction on Saturday.

Kyle Bradish of the Orioles has made six starts and has been pitching the best baseball of his career. He is striking out 32% of batters, way above his career average, while allowing a hard-hit percentage of only 25%, 99th percentile in the big leagues.

While it’s a fantastic start for a league average pitcher, regression will come for him soon.

I’ll try here, on the road against a Rays team that has pop in the lineup and a pitcher who has a high ceiling in Taj Bradley. The hard throwing right hander hasn’t had good results this season, his xERA is hovering around 7.00, but i believe he can outperform expectations given the Orioles have the third fewest walks on the year.

Cubs vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

The Cubs’ skid has continued while the Reds have won six straight, so I’ll side with the hot home team.

It helps that Chicago is bottom 10 in OPS against left handers this season as the team faces Reds’ starter Andrew Abbott.

Cincinnati is playing its best ball now, second in the big leagues in OPS over the last 13 games and play in the hitter friendly Great American Ball Park. I don’t see the difference between the two teams at the moment being neglible, like this line indicates, and I expect Cincy to win with ease at home for a seventh straight game.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

6 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Shohei Ohtani Off to Historic Start After Launching Two Homers in Dodgers’ Win

Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Shohei Ohtani is off to quite the start at the plate in 2024.

Ohtani homered twice in the Dodgers' 5–1 win over the Atlanta Braves on Sunday to help complete a sweep of the team which entered the weekend with the best record in baseball. He went 4-for-4 on Sunday and smacked his second homer of the day 464 feet to center field.

TWO HOMER DAY? BRAVO, SHOHEI. pic.twitter.com/doXseFxX0U
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) May 5, 2024

Ohtani now is tied for the league lead in homers with 10. In 35 games, he has collected 25 extra-base hits (14 doubles, one triple, 10 homers), the most for a player's first 35 contests with the Dodgers in MLB history (h/t Sarah Langs).

But there's more.

Ohtani's 25 extra-base hits through 35 games also marks his best start to a season. He also has never posted more hits (52), runs (30), total bases (98) or notched a better batting average (.364), on-base percentage (.426) or slugging percentage (.685) through 35 contests in his career.

Ohtani already has 2 unanimous MVPs and is off to his BEST start thru 35 games as a hitter:
XBH: 25, most
Hits: 52, most
BA: .364, best
Runs: 30, most
Total bases: 98, most
OBP: .426, best
SLG: .685, best
OPS: 1.111, best https://t.co/TYhs9I00JS
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) May 5, 2024

The Dodgers gave Ohtani a 10-year, $700 million contract in free agency last offseason in hopes he'd continue to be the two-way superstar

Ohtani won't pitch until next year, but he already might be worth the Dodgers' investment solely from his offensive production so far.

Ohtani and the Dodgers return to the field Monday to begin a three-game series against the Miami Marlins, who own the second-fewest wins in the National League with a 10–26 record.

1 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Ronald Acuña Jr. Slump Hits Alarming New Low for Braves

For some time now, the Atlanta Braves have gone as their young superstar, Ronald Acuña Jr. has gone. But to start 2024, Acuña has slumped while the Braves have continued to win, leading the NL East by a half-game going into Wednesday's game.

Acuña, meanwhile, has hit statistical marks that resemble some previous slumps, while achieving personal records of the wrong kind.

David O'Brien pointed out on Tuesday night that Acuña's two strikeouts to start the game officially gave him more multi-strikeout games than he had in all of last season. April has just finished. Acuña closed the game 0-for-4 and the Braves lost 3-2 to the Seattle Mariners. It lowlights a season where he's slashing just .245/.366/.318.

Surely, reason for concern for both the player and the team, even despite the fact that Atlanta has won through his slow start. The Braves can only get so far without Acuña achieving his potential. He's struggled with fastballs so far this year, slugging .100 against four-seamers, a pitch he slugged .615 against in 2023.

Contextualizing his slow start, his 10-game rolling strikeout rate went above 35 percent in April, something that hadn't happened for him since 2022 when he slumped in July. His slump was as pronounced then as it is now. After bouncing back from the slump, he admitted his knee injury from then held him back.

While there's been no official word from Acuña that the knee is what's to blame for this slump, that same knee bothered him in Spring Training and he missed some time before Opening Day. And the characteristics of what he was struggling through -- struggling with four-seam fastballs -- were similar.

There are nuggets of optimism to glean from the situation. The most obvious is that Acuña has battled through month-long slumps before, that 2022 one sticking out as an obvious example. Acuña can recall the extra work he put in in late July and early August with lots of additional pregame work as a way out.

In 2022, after his 10-game rolling strikeout rate peaked at 40.5 percent on the 23rd of June, he got it all the way down to 12.2 percent by August 5th. August wound up being his best month at the plate in OPS (.877), batting average (.316) and total bases (45). He has proven the capability to bounce back.

No slump is the same, but Atlanta will be hoping for a similar comeback.

6 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Time to Buy Low on Pablo Lopez?)

Thursday is a travel day for a handful of teams in the big leagues, but we still have baseball starting in the afternoon.

With about a third of the season finished, it's time to look for some buy-low candidates and I have my eye on Twins' starter Pablo Lopez, who is due for a big uptick in production as the calendar flips to June. The matchup is daunting against the surging Yankees, but are the Twins live for an upset?

I have betting break downs for each game on the Thursday MLB card below!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

The Orioles are the best-hitting team in baseball against left-handed pitching, making this is a tough ask for the Blue Jays, who will start Yusei Kikuchi on Thursday afternoon.

Yes, Kikuch has lowered his walk rate to a career-low of five percent, but he still allows hard contact at a 43% clip, ranking in the 19th percentile, per MLBStatcast, a ripe matchup for the Orioles loaded lineup.

After a rain out on Wednesday, we get a Thursday meeting between these two, and I’m looking to fade Royal starter Brady Singer.

Brady Singer has 2.63 ERA but is due a ton of regression with an xERA of 4.35.

Against a Guardians lineup that can put the ball in play at an elite level, 11th in OPS, I’ll back the home favorite.

Bryan Woo has looked the part in five starts this season, posting a 1.30 ERA as he continues to be stretched out. Woo is striking out fewer batters, down to 18% from 25% as a rookie, but is walking only two percent of hitters while limiting posting an elite blend of fastball and off-speed pitches to avoid blowup innings.

With limited path to base runners, I struggle to see the A’s keeping up on Thursday.

Los Angeles is the second-best hitting team against lefties this season and draws a favorable matchup against Bailey Falter of the Pirates, who has seen his strikeout rate diminish to 15% this season.

Falter won’t be able to get around the vaunted bats of Los Angeles, and somebody is due for a big-hitting day against him with his xERA sitting far higher than his actual ERA (3.22 vs. 4.73).

I’ll take a stab at the Nationals as home underdogs on the premise of a summer drop-off from Reynaldo Lopez, the Braves starter.

Lopez has a 1.73 ERA, but his xERA is far higher at 3.72. He has been crushed by hard contact (42nd percentile) and his offspeed pitches are ineffective (17th percentile in terms of run value), and I believe the Nationals can have success. This is worth a flier on a home underdog.

Pablo Lopez’s numbers don’t indicate that he’s pitching at a high level, but he may be due for a big jump statistically based on his pitching. He has a 4.84 ERA despite posting a career-best walk rate. He has an xERA of 2.99 despite posting a 73rd percentile xBA, and I believe that he will turn it around soon.

I’ll fade the red-hot Yankees with a pitcher that is ripe to outperform expectations.

The Cubs slide in play continues, and this matchup doesn’t set up well for them as the team heads to Cincinnati to face the Reds with emerging arm Hunter Greene on the mound.

Chicago is 29th in OPS over the last 30 days while the Reds check in eighth. Further, Cubs’ starter Javier Assad may be due for a drop in play after a strong start to the year. He has a 2.27 ERA that is supported by a 3.72 xERA.

Sonny Gray has been on a tear this season. He has a 3.00 ERA while striking out a career-best 33.5% of batters. Even when hitters are putting the ball in play, it's soft contact (66th percentile in hard-hit percentage).

At home, the Cardinals should have little issue getting past the Rockies.

Tanner Houck is putting up All-Star numbers for Boston this season, posting a 1.85 ERA, and now faces the worst offense in Major League Baseball in Chicago, with the lowest OPS.

I’m not backing an upset given the lack of talent for the White Sox.

This is a fade of Randy Vasquez of the Padres, who has a 5.41 xERA and is walking nearly 10% of batters. This is problematic against the Diamondbacks, a team that is top 10 in walks this season and eighth in on-base percentage.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

US Sports News

MLB Best Bets Today, June 8th (Fade Kyle Bradish and Orioles?)

Braves vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Cubs vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

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Jimm Sallivan