MLB Best Bets for Astros vs Guardians: Houston Stays Hot at Home

May 1, 2024 Jimm Sallivan

Do the Houston Astros have their mojo back?

Maybe.

They’re now on a three-game win streak after defeating the Cleveland Guardians in dramatic extra-innings walk-off fashion at home Tuesday night. The final score was 9-8.

Perhaps it was the energy change of Jose Abreu DFA-ing himself to work on his swing, or maybe it’s just that the pitching rotation is getting healthier, but either way, I’m willing to bet on it.

Justin Verlander gets the ball tonight at home, and he has looked strong to start the season, allowing only two earned runs across his first two starts (10 ⅓ innings pitched). However, his xERA of 4.50, according to Statcast, suggests there could be some regression. Keep your eye on Jose Ramirez, who has excellent career numbers vs. Verlander.

Triston McKenzie gets the start for Cleveland. McKenzie is pitching with a torn ligament in his left elbow (true story), which seems to have affected his command. McKenzie has walked 6.95 batters per nine innings this year, which could spell trouble vs. a Houston team that no longer has Abreu as an automatic out. Despite their lack of wins, the Astros have the third-best BA in MLB (.265), the fifth-highest SLG (.419), and the fifth-best OPS (.750).

The Guardians have been one of the best teams in baseball when it comes to RISP, while the Astros have been one of the worst teams when it comes to relief pitching. Despite their star power, the Astros bullpen could be shaky today with many relievers—including closer Josh Hader—likely unavailable after being used in Tuesday night’s extra innings.

When I add all this up, all signs point to the over on the game total of nine runs tonight at the Juice Box.

Expect Jose Altuve and Jeremey Pena to get hits, and Triston McKenzie to strike out fewer than 4.5 batters. The Astros have the lowest K rate in MLB at just 16.6%, and McKenzie has struck out no more than two batters in each of his last three starts.

The Astros are -175 at DraftKings Sportsbook to win, so if you don’t like the payout but want to shy away from the run line, consider an SGP (same-game parlay) with one of the player props mentioned above.

The Astros have won five of their last seven matchups with the Guardians dating back to 2023.

The Bets, with odds coming via DraftKings Sportsbook:

Astros -1.5 (+120)

Over 9 runs (-108)

Triston McKenzie under 4.5 K (-195)

7 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Every MLB Team’s World Series Odds Through First Two Months of 2024 Season

We're officially more than two months into the 2024 Major League Baseball season so it's time to take a step back and take a look at the futures markets.

What teams have underperformed? What teams are a surprising contender? Are there any teams we should bet on now or are there a few we should stay away from?

In this article, we're going to take a look at the latest World Series odds for all 32 teams. Let's dive into it. All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Dodgers, despite underperforming by their standards, are still set as the World Series favorites at +260, which is an implied probability of 27.78%. There's no denying the talent this roster has and they're still playing well enough to have a hefty lead on the NL West.

The New York Yankees have been the best team in baseball through the first two months. Their pitching has been sharp and their offense, specifically the play of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, has been unbelievable. If I were to pick one team to win it all at this point of the season, I'd pick the Yankees.

The Phillies have the best record in the National League at 44-19. They have a great chance to yet again go on a deep playoff run.

The injury bug has bitten the Braves, most notably Ronald Acuna Jr., who will miss the rest of the 2024 season. There's still plenty of time for them to rally and there's a reason they're still fourth on the odds list to win it all.

The Orioles are still well behind the Yankees in the AL East, but at 39-22, they'll be back in the playoffs once again.

The Seattle Mariners lead the AL West, but their offense needs to wake up if they want to be true World Series contenders in 2024.

The AL Central was supposed to be the worst division in baseball, but as of writing this article, four of the five teams are at .500 or above, including the Minnesota Twins at 33-29.

The Houston Astros don't look like the same contender they once were. Their metrics are still respectable and their offense has woken up in recent weeks. If there's one team that has got off to a slow start that I could see getting hot in the second half of the season, it's the Astros.

The Cleveland Guardians are eye-popping 40-21 as of writing this article. While that's impressive, I wouldn't be surprised if he saw some regression from this team in the second half of the season.

The Milwaukee Brewers lead the NL Central and have had one of the better offenses through the first two months of the season. They are a team to watch in the National League.

It's been a bad start to the season for the defending World Series champions. Their offense has been middling and their bullpen continues to cost them games. They need to find a way to turn the ship around or they're going to fail to make the playoffs.

The Kansas City Royals might be the single most surprising team in the Majors this season at 37-26. Not only has their record been good, but they have the metrics to back it up. Between strong offensive statistics and more than one Cy Young candidate in their rotation, the Royals could be a Cinderella story in 2024.

The Blue Jays may be the most disappointing team in the Majors. Despite looking like a talented squad on paper, their offense has been without teeth and their bullpen has been abysmal. On top of that, their rotation hasn't been nearly as good as it was last year. Time is running out for Toronto.

I feel sorry for Mets fans. It's been a disaster of a season and they're already 16.5 games back from the Phillies in the NL East.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

7 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

MLB Best Bets: Back Two Road Underdogs at Plus Money

Happy Tuesday!

Let’s have some fun and look at a couple of plus-money dogs that could be worth a wager Tuesday night—all odds according to DraftKings.

Braves ML +145 at DraftKings

Sure, the Braves are at home, and yes, Reynaldo Lopez has been excellent to start the season, but +145 for the Red Sox to pull off the upset looks mighty fine to me.

Kutter Crawford gets the start for the Red Sox, and he has been excellent this year. If you’re a fantasy baseball enthusiast, you probably already know this. He was one of my favorite sleepers heading into the season and became a waiver wire must-add some time ago.

But I digress.

undefined — Boston Red Sox pitcher Kutter Crawford on April 5, 2024.

Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

Crawford has a 1.56 ERA this season and isn’t allowing hard contact. His 26.1% hard-hit rate is in the top 3% of the league.

The Braves have scored the second-most runs per game this season (5.09), but their bats have been cold for the past two weeks. They have managed only 3.18 runs per game across the past two weeks of play. That ranks 27th out of 30 MLB teams.

The Red Sox have averaged 4.92 runs per game across the last two weeks of play, ranking seventh in MLB.

The public will be all on the Braves bouncing back at home. After all, the Braves are 11-4 this season when they are the home favorite. It’s tempting to back the home team, but the +145 is even more enticing.

Houston Astros ML +105 at DraftKings

The Yankees swept Houston in the first series of the season at Minute Maid, and now they even get home-field advantage.

So, why are we backing the Houston Astros, whose bullpen has blown nine saves?

Justin Verlander.

Verlander has been sharp since returning from the IL, allowing only four earned runs across three starts and 17 1/3 innings pitched. Not only that, but this Yankees lineup is hitting a collective .158 and slugging a mere .354 lifetime vs. Verlander.

Both teams have hit well recently, and yes, Juan Soto seems to be Houston’s daddy, but for the plus-money payout, I’m willing to bet the road team comes out on top in a low-scoring affair Tuesday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

7 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Chris Sale Primed to Bounce Back)

Friday features a jam-packed slate of Major League Baseball action, and there are plenty of ways to bet in the prop market with so many teams playing.

I’ve narrowed down my picks for Friday’s slate to just three, with two starting pitchers and one red-hot hitter getting the nod.

The game of the night on Friday is likely between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, and Yankees slugger Aaron Judge may need to have a big game after Juan Soto exited Thursday night’s contest with left forearm discomfort.

Judge is one of the three players I’m targeting tonight, so let’s dive into the picks for June 7:

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chris Sale to Record a Win (-110)

Atlanta Braves lefty Chris Sale is coming off a rough outing to open June, allowing eight earned runs in four innings against the A’s, but I think he’s due for a bounce-back showing against the Washington Nationals on Friday.

Sale was terrific in May, allowing just two earned runs across five starts (32.0 innings of work), so I’m not reading too much into his clunker to start June.

The Braves are 8-3 in Sale’s 11 starts this season, and he’s earned the decision in every win, posting an 8-1 record. Prior to his last outing, Sale had earned the win in seven consecutive starts.

Rather than laying the price on the Braves moneyline, I like taking Sale to earn the win against a Washington team that struggles against left-handed pitching, ranking 27th in MLB in OPS.

Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Walks (-125)

Judge and Soto have been the best duo in baseball this season, but if Soto misses this game – or extended time – Judge may see less pitches to hit going forward.

As it is, Judge has drawn at least one walk in five straight games, and he’s racked 52 total walks in 64 games so far in 2024.

Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto doesn’t walk a ton of hitters (just 14 in 12 starts), but I can’t imagine he’ll look to attack Judge every at bat with Soto likely out of the lineup on Friday.

Judge has been great at drawing walks and getting on base for years, so I’ll gladly take him at this price on Friday.

Griffin Canning UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Los Angeles Angels starter Griffin Canning has a tough matchup on Friday, as he’s taking on the Houston Astros, who strikeout a league-low 6.83 times per game this season.

Canning has cleared 4.5 strikeouts in just four of his 12 outings in 2024, and he struck out just two Houston batters across five innings in his first outing against the Stros this season.

Overall, Canning ranks in just the 13th percentile in strikeout percentage this season, so I don’t see him racking up a huge number on this prop against the least strikeout prone offense in the league.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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MLB Best Bets for Astros vs Guardians: Houston Stays Hot at Home

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Jimm Sallivan