Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Finals Game 1 (Can Boston Cover?)

June 5, 2024 Jimm Sallivan

After a week off, the NBA returns for the Dallas Mavericks-Boston Celtics matchup in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.

Boston – the favorite in the series – comes into this matchup as a 6.5-point favorite after Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and company rolled through the Eastern Conference, going 12-2 to reach the Finals.

The Mavericks have been a little more battle-tested, but they flexed their muscle in the Western Conference Finals to close the Minnesota Timberwolves out in five games behind four games of 32 points or more from Luka Doncic.

Dallas has struggled in Game 1s in the Jason Kidd era, going 1-5 straight up, but 6.5 points is quite the spread for an opening game in the Finals. Can Boston, who had the No. 1 net rating in the regular season – and so far in the playoffs – show why it’s the favorite on Thursday?

Here’s our full betting preview with the latest odds, key players to watch and a best bet for Game 1:

Spread

Moneyline

Total

Mavericks Injury Report

Celtics Injury Report

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic: The 2023-24 regular season MVP finalist leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made, recording six triple-doubles in 17 games. Luka really came on in the Western Conference Finals, scoring 32 or more points in all four of Dallas’ wins, and he is going to be the main focus for Boston’s defense in Game 1.

Boston Celtics

Jayson Tatum: Jayson Tatum has not shot the ball well in the postseason – 44.2 percent from the field, 29.0 percent from 3 – but he’s made an impact elsewhere averaging over 10 rebounds and five assists per game. Tatum didn’t play his best in his first NBA Finals appearance in 2022, but the Celtics star has a better team around him – and that experience to lean on – in this series.

Boston deserves a little more respect for its run to the Finals, even if it faced a few banged-up teams along the way.

The C’s needed just 14 games to get through the East, winning in blowouts against Miami and Cleveland as well as taking three games against the Indiana Pacers where the Pacers had a 90 percent win probability or higher in the fourth quarter of three of the four games.

An interesting trend for Game 1 of the NBA Finals surfaced this week, showing that since 2005, the favorite is 16-3 ATS in Game 1.

Celtics are currently 6.5-pt favorites in Game 1 of the NBA Finals vs. Mavericks.

Since 2005, favorites in G1 of the finals are 16-3 ATS, including 21-9 ATS over the last 30 years ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/u7x78QG9z0

— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) June 4, 2024

I think that bodes well for a Boston team that covered in two of its three Game 1s so far this postseason and was 37-4 straight up at home in the regular season. The C’s also posted a 26-21-2 against the spread record as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of victory of 14.4 points.

I have a lot of respect for the run Dallas made, but Jason Kidd’s team has struggled in Game 1s since he took over, going 1-5 straight up and losing four of those five games by seven or more points.

I’m worried about Dallas’ role players and whether or not they’ll make enough shots for key defenders like Derrick Jones Jr. and PJ Washington to stay on the floor for the majority of the game. Boston, on the other hand, is going to be even deeper with Kristaps Porzingis likely back in action.

I’ll lay the points with the C’s in Game 1.

Pick: Celtics -6.5 (-110)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey’s betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

4 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Jimmy Butler Utters Confident Statement About Heat’s Playoff Fate

The Miami Heat were bounced from the NBA playoffs in five games by the Boston Celtics, but star Jimmy Butler believes things would have been different if he was healthy.

Butler suffered a sprained MCL during the play-in tournament against the Philadelphia 76ers. He missed all five games against the Celtics.

"If I was playing, Boston would be at home," Butler recently said in an interview with Rock the Bells. "New York would d--- sure be f--king at home."

#RTBExclusive: @JimmyButler said what he said. Do you think Miami would have beaten Boston in the #NBAPlayoffs if Playoff Jimmy Butler was playing? pic.twitter.com/4HvHKhTsCM
— Rock The Bells (@RockTheBells) May 4, 2024

The Celtics cruised to the Eastern Conference's best record (64–18) this season, but Butler's confidence likely is coming from the rivals' recent playoff history. The Heat got the better of Boston in both the 2020 and '23 conference finals.

Butler was named the 2023 Eastern Conference finals MVP after tallying 24.2 points, 7.7 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game against the Celtics.

Butler ended his quick interview with Rock the Bells by addressing New York Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau, who he played for with the Chicago Bulls from 2011 to '15 and again with the Minnesota Timberwolves from 2017 to '19.

Thibodeau and the Knicks are set to face the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference semifinals after defeating the Philadelphia 76ers in six games.

"I love Thibs, but I don't want him to win," Butler said. "Thibs, I love you baby, but I want to beat you to a pulp. It's like a one-sided relationship. You're in love with me. I love you, but I'm not in love with you."

Butler, 34, will be paid over $48 million by the Heat next season. He has a $52.4 million player option on his contract for the 2025-26 campaign.

9 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Best NBA Prop Bets Today for Mavericks vs. Celtics in NBA Finals Game 2 (Bet This Kristaps Porzingis Prop)

Game 2 of the NBA Finals is upon us, and there are only so many more days that we can bet on the NBA this season, so why not take advantage of them with a few player prop picks?

Game 1 between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks ended up being a blowout, but it was an educational game in terms of how these teams are going to match up.

We learned that Kristaps Porzingis was going to come off the bench, Boston was going to play Luka Doncic straight up, and Dallas’ lob threats weren't going to have an easy time at the rim.

There is one prop I took in Game 1 – Jrue Holiday’s points, rebounds, and assists – that I’m going back to on Sunday night, along with two more plays to round out the betting card.

Let’s break things down!

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Kristaps Porzingis OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-130)

Kristaps Porzingis came off the bench for Boston in Game 1 and dominated the game in the 21 minutes that he played, shooting 8-for-13 from the field and 2-for-4 from beyond the arc.

While he didn’t play his usual minutes, Porzingis still attempted the second-most shots on the team and was a clear focal point on the Boston offense.

I’m eyeing his 3-point prop in Game 2, as he’s had a ton of success against Dallas in this market this season. In his lone regular-season meeting with the Mavs, KP drilled four of his eight shots from beyond the arc.

Dallas switched a lot in Game 1, giving Porzingis some favorable matchups to shoot over smaller defenders. If that continues, I imagine he keeps letting it fly from 3. KP shot 37.5 percent from beyond the arc in the regular season.

Jrue Holiday OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)

Jrue Holiday did a little bit of everything in Game 1, finishing with 12 points (4-for-9 shooting), eight rebounds, and five assists to clear his PRA prop of 22.5.

Oddsmakers are setting this at the same number in Game 2, and I’ll gladly take the OVER again on the Celtics point guard.

Holiday has now cleared this line in every game since the start of the Eastern Conference Finals and seven of his last eight contests while averaging 16.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game over that stretch.

There aren’t a ton of shots to go around in the Boston offense, but Holiday still got a decent share in Game 1 and did a lot of the dirty work on the glass as well. Until he starts missing this number consistently, he’s a must-bet for me in Game 2.

PJ Washington OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-135)

Dallas forward PJ Washington had a big game on the glass in Game 1 with the Celtics spreading out the Dallas defense.

Washington finished with eight rebounds in the loss, the ninth time in 12 times that he’s cleared this total (dating back to the start of the second round against Oklahoma City).

For the playoffs, Washington has just one game where he finished with less than five rebounds, and he’s averaging 6.8 rebounds per game overall.

Dallas needs him on the floor defensively, and this is a favorable matchup for him to hit the glass on the defensive end since both of Boston’s centers stretch the floor and aren’t always parked in the paint (like Rudy Gobert was in the Western Conference Finals).

This is a great number to land Washington at him Game 2.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

29 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Looking Back at Every Sweep in NBA Finals History

Among the four major North American sports leagues, the NBA has traditionally stood out in the popular imagination as being the league of the dynasties. The Boston Celtics of the 1960s begat the Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers of the 1980s begat the Chicago Bulls of the 1990s, and so on and so forth.

For this reason, it may surprise you to learn that in the NBA Finals' entire history—from its quaint 1947 origins to the present day—professional basketball's final series has seen just nine sweeps.

Here is a look back at the nine perfect performances in the event's annals. Note before we begin that there were four best-of-five finals sweeps in the history of the National Basketball League, the NBA's immediate predecessor.

GAME	RESULT
Game 1	Celtics 118, Lakers 115
Game 2	Celtics 128, Lakers 108
Game 3	Celtics 123, Lakers 110
Game 4	Celtics 118, Lakers 113

The very first Finals between Boston and the Lakers, and the only one that took place while the Lakers were located in Minneapolis. The first of the Celtics' run of eight straight championships, the longest streak in the history of the four major North American sports. Boston center Bill Russell averaged 29.5 rebounds per game, which will play.

GAME	RESULT
Game 1	Bucks 98, Bullets 88
Game 2	Bucks 102, Bullets 83
Game 3	Bucks 107, Bullets 99
Game 4	Bucks 118, Bullets 106

The Milwaukee Bucks' first title, and their only title until 2021. The first of six rings for Bucks center Lew Alcindor, the future Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. The most recent of two series, along with the 1956 Finals, played under a 1-1-1-1-1-1-1 format in which the two teams alternated home games.

GAME	RESULT
Game 1	Warriors 101, Bullets 95
Game 2	Warriors 92, Bullets 91
Game 3	Warriors 109, Bullets 101
Game 4	Warriors 96, Bullets 95

Both the Golden State Warriors (Al Attles) and Washington Bullets (K.C. Jones) had Black head coaches, which hadn't happened before in any league. The Bullets actually took three of four from Golden State in the regular season, anticipating a highly competitive matchup. A 14-5 run late in Game 4 gave the Warriors their last title until 2015.

GAME	RESULT
Game 1	76ers 113, Lakers 107
Game 2	76ers 103, Lakers 93
Game 3	76ers 111, Lakers 94
Game 4	76ers 115, Lakers 108

A fitting conclusion to Hall of Fame center Moses Malone's third and final MVP season. Polished off a 12-1 playoff run after Malone predicted the Philadelphia 76ers would need only four games to win each series. The last major Philadelphia championship until the Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series in 2008.

GAME	RESULT
Game 1	Pistons 109, Lakers 97
Game 2	Pistons 108, Lakers 105
Game 3	Pistons 114, Lakers 110
Game 4	Pistons 105, Lakers 97

The Detroit Pistons' first title after a grueling seven-game loss to the Lakers the season prior. Featured a superb performance from Pistons guard Joe Dumars, who averaged 27.3 points per game. The curtain call on Abdul-Jabbar's spectacular 20-year career.

GAME	RESULT
Game 1	Rockets 120, Magic 118 (OT)
Game 2	Rockets 117, Magic 106
Game 3	Rockets 106, Magic 103
Game 4	Rockets 113, Magic 101

Notorious for the Orlando Magic's complete meltdown in Game 1, during which guard Nick Anderson missed four crucial free throws to open the door for Houston Rockets guard Kenny Smith's game-tying three. The Rockets, seeded sixth, became the lowest-seeded team to win the title. Houston's title followed a seven-game championship win over the New York Knicks in 1994.

GAME	RESULT
Game 1	Lakers 99, Nets 94
Game 2	Lakers 106, Nets 83
Game 3	Lakers 106, Nets 103
Game 4	Lakers 113, Nets 107

The Lakers' third consecutive championship, and center Shaquille O'Neal's third consecutive Finals MVP award. Los Angeles overcame a superb individual series from New Jersey Nets guard Jason Kidd, who had averaged a triple-double in the Eastern Conference finals. The last Finals aired on NBC to date.

GAME	RESULT
Game 1	Spurs 95, Cavaliers 76
Game 2	Spurs 103, Cavaliers 92
Game 3	Spurs 75, Cavaliers 72
Game 4	Spurs 83, Cavaliers 82

Noted for its astoundingly low scores, Game 3 was the lowest-scoring Finals game since 1955. The first Finals for Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James, and for every Cavalier apart from veteran guard Eric Snow. Despite several close games, only in Game 4 did Cleveland lead in the second half.

GAME	RESULT
Game 1	Warriors 124, Cavaliers 114 (OT)
Game 2	Warriors 122, Cavaliers 103
Game 3	Warriors 110, Cavaliers 102
Game 4	Warriors 108, Cavaliers 85

The sweep everyone remembers. Began with a bizarre overtime game in which Cavaliers guard J.R. Smith appeared to forget the score at the end of regulation and James scored 51 points in defeat. The average margin of victory, 15, is the largest in any NBA Finals.

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Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Finals Game 1 (Can Boston Cover?)

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Celtics Injury Report

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