The 2024 NBA Finals tip off on Thursday night, as the Boston Celtics look to add an 11th Larry O’Brien Trophy to their trophy case, while the Dallas Mavericks look to secure the franchise’s second-ever NBA title.
For viewing purposes, getting the opportunity to see a seven-game series between the Celtics and Mavericks would be wildly entertaining. It’s somewhat uncommon for an NBA Finals series to go the full seven games, however. Throughout history, the NBA Finals has gone the full distance of seven games only 19 times.
Most recently, the 2016 NBA Finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors was decided in seven games, but the past seven championships have been decided quicker than that.
Here’s a look at every NBA Finals series that has gone seven games:
YEAR
MATCHUP
1951
Rochester Royals def. New York Knicks
1952
Minneapolis Lakers def. New York Knicks
1954
Minneapolis Lakers def. Syracuse Nationals
1955
Syracuse Nationals def. Fort Wayne Pistons
1957
Boston Celtics def. St. Louis Hawks
1960
Boston Celtics def. St. Louis Hawks
1962
Boston Celtics def. Los Angeles Lakers
1966
Boston Celtics def. Los Angeles Lakers
1969
Boston Celtics def. Los Angeles Lakers
1970
New York Knicks def. Los Angeles Lakers
1974
Boston Celtics def. Milwaukee Bucks
1978
Washington Bullets def. Seattle Supersonics
1984
Boston Celtics def. Los Angeles Lakers
1988
Los Angeles Lakers def. Detroit Pistons
1994
Houston Rockets def. New York Knicks
2005
San Antonio Spurs def. Detroit Pistons
2010
Los Angeles Lakers def. Boston Celtics
2013
Miami Heat def. San Antonio Spurs
2016
Cleveland Cavaliers def. Golden State Warriors
Game 7’s have been few and far between in recent history. Since 1995, only four NBA Finals series have reached the coveted seventh game.
Of course, those that have gone the distance have resulted in some iconic moments, including the Cavaliers becoming the first team in league history to overcome a 3–1 deficit in the Finals in ’16 against the Warriors.
Of the 19 Game 7’s in NBA Finals history, only two have gone to overtime, and none since 1962 when the Celtics took down the Lakers.
It took just one game -- one quarter really -- of the 2024 NBA Finals for the Boston Celtics to show why they had the best record in the NBA in the 2023-24 season and led the league in net rating.
Boston jumped out to the biggest first quarter lead in a Game 1 in NBA Finals history, and it didn't let Dallas get closer than eight points the rest of the way in a blowout win.
The C's came into this series as -210 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, giving them an implied probability of over 60 percent to win the title. That has already changed drastically after Boston's Game 1 win.
Based on the latest odds at DraftKings, Boston has an implied probability of 80 percent to win the NBA Finals this season. While it was only one game, it's clear that Boston's dominance has altered the betting market in a big way.
A historical trend that dates back to the 1996-97 season also favors Boston, as no team that has finished outside the top eight in net rating during the regular season has gone on to win the NBA Finals since then.
Dallas is attempting to break that trend this season.
For bettors that still believe in the Mavericks, there is something to hang your hat on after Game 1.
Jason Kidd was just 1-5 (now 1-6) in Game 1s as the Mavericks' head coach, but he's led his team to a 5-1 series record so far in two playoff runs. Kidd has made the adjustments -- and his team has responded -- after other poor showings in series openers in the playoffs this season.
As a bettor who already has a Celtics future from the preseason in pocket, I'm standing pat ahead of Sunday's Game 2 based on the latest odds movement.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum. Kyrie Irving vs. Boston. Kristaps Porzingis vs. Dallas.
The stage is set for the 2024 NBA Finals, and we could be in for quite the series, especially since both of these teams have gotten a ton of rest since the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.
Game 1 – on June 6 – is still a few days away, but the betting markets for the NBA Finals are alive and well. Not only are there odds for the series winner, exact games and NBA Finals MVP, but bettors can also wager on series-long player props ahead of Game 1 as well.
Using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, I’m taking a deep dive into this series where the Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win their first title in the Jayson Tatum era – something that has been building all season long in the futures market.
Dallas, who is the No. 5 seed in the West, won three consecutive playoff series as a road team and underdog, but can it win one more? Doncic and Irving certainly are as well-equipped as a duo could be to lead their team to the promised land.
As someone who is holding a preseason future on Boston, there are several ways to play this series. But, before getting into my pick, let’s discuss the series odds, correct score and Finals MVP markets and how they may shake out.
Based on implied probability, Boston has a 67.74 percent chance to win this series, while Dallas clocks in at 36.36 percent.
It makes sense since Boston has home-court advantage in this matchup, but the Mavericks have played some great basketball as of late. Not only did they post the best defensive rating in the NBA over their last 15 games of the regular season, but they closed the season on a 16-4 run to earn the No. 5 seed.
Since the trade deadline, when Dallas acquired PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, it has been a totally different team.
However, there is one thing that I’ve been tracking for years that is working against Dallas in this series. Since the 1996-97 season, every team that has won the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in net rating during the regular season.
Dallas did not in the 2023-24 campaign.
Is this the year that this trend breaks? It could be given how drastically the Mavs’ roster changed at the trade deadline. Dallas had a net rating of +1.3 before the All-Star break (around the trade deadline) and it ended up posting a +3.7 net rating in 27 games out of the All-Star break – which was good for 12th in the NBA.
I try not to read into these trends too much, but this one has extended over 25 years, so it’s going to take a special team to break it.
As for Boston, this has been the expectation for the team all season long. The C’s have been Finals favorites for most of the campaign, and they rolled through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs.
While Boston has been maligned for having an easier path to the Finals due to injuries to its opponents, the Celtics beat whoever was in front of them, going 12-2 on their run. It’s hard to be much better than that.
Since Boston is heavily favored to win this series, it has the three most likely outcomes in the correct score odds at DraftKings.
Given Boston’s dominance on the road (6-0 this postseason), it isn’t crazy to think that this series could be over in five or six games, even though Dallas has yet to face a Game 7 all postseason.
The Mavericks’ most likely outcome is to take the series in six games, with a four or five game win sitting as a massive long shot. Dallas has an implied probability of just 7.69 percent to win in five games and five percent to win in four games.
Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite to win NBA Finals MVP with Boston favored in this series, but can we count out Jaylen Brown?
Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, yet he’s +650 to win Finals MVP. Tatum has played much better as of late, but he started the postseason off in a bit of a shooting slump, and will likely draw one of Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. for the entirety of the series against Dallas.
Luka Doncic (+205) is also interesting since he leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made.
Obviously, Dallas would have to overcome being a massive underdog for Doncic to win this award, but at +205 he presents some more value than simply taking the Mavs to win the series. It’s tough to see any other Dallas player winning this award based on the odds, unless Kyrie Irving has a massive series scoring the ball.
Doncic has been a triple-double machine in these playoffs, so we know he’s going to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis, which would help him when it comes to the Finals MVP voting.
Even though oddsmakers don’t seem to think this matchup will be super close, I actually believe we’re in for a terrific series given how Dallas matches up defensively with the Celtics.
Washington, Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II are all versatile defenders that could match up with Tatum, Brown and Porzingis respectively on defense. On the Boston side of things, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are about as good of a duo as you can have to deal with the offensive expertise of Doncic and Irving.
Dallas and Boston have both thrived in clutch minutes so far this postseason, and each team has All-Star closers that can take over a game. If Porzingis is back – and it seems like he is trending in that direction – both teams will also be as healthy as they’ve been all playoffs now that Maxi Kleber is back from a shoulder injury for Dallas.
So where does Boston’s advantage truly lie?
While the Celtics faced three banged-up teams to up the playoffs, they dominated a good chunk of their games, only losing on masterful Game 2 shooting performances by Miami (23-for-43 from 3 in Game 2) and Cleveland (13-for-28 from 3 in Game 2). In both of those games, Boston failed to make double-digit 3-pointers, but it has been one of the best shooting teams all season.
Doncic and Irving present a challenge the C’s haven’t faced yet, but to say Boston isn’t battle tested is flat out wrong.
The Celtics are 6-0 on the road in the playoffs and turned three games in the Eastern Conference Finals where their opponent – the Indiana Pacers – had a 90 percent win probability or higher, into wins. Regardless of who is on the floor, that’s impressive resilience from a team that has played in big games a lot in the Tatum-Brown era.
Dallas’ role players are going to have to knock down shots in this series – and they have for most of the playoffs – but Boston has more offensive firepower when Porzingis is in the lineup. A lot of people are forgetting they rolled through the last two rounds without KP’s 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds on the floor.
Moving Al Horford to a smaller role should combat the problems Boston had defending the pick-and-roll this postseason, and Porzingis (if healthy) gives Boston elite rim protection against lob threats like Gafford and Lively.
Dallas’ offense doesn’t have the ability to spread the floor like Boston’s does, and while I believe Doncic is the best player in this series, Boston has shown all season long that it is the best team.
I don’t think Dallas gets run out of the building like Boston did to the East, but given the Celtics’ ability to win on the road in this postseason – and past postseasons – with this core, I think they clean this up in six games.
Pick: Celtics in 6 (+475)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
The Boston Celtics secured a 2–0 series lead over the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday night, winning Game 2 of the NBA Finals by seven on their home court.
After the game, Jaylen Brown linked up with members of the NBA TV postgame show for a quick interview, during which Shaquille O'Neal took the opportunity to offer him some "G-14 classification information," or advice regarding the NBA Finals.
"Jaylen, I don't have a question. But I'm going to give you some G-14 classification information, because this will be the last time you see me. It's a riddle; do not get fixated on useless titles. Do what you gotta do. Doesn't matter who's who, or they say who's what. It ain't time for all that right now. Do what you gotta do and get it done," O'Neal advised Brown.
Matt Winer then asked Brown if that rambling made sense to him, to which Brown honestly admitted that it did not. O'Neal then proceeded to break it down further.
"They're trying to separate you and your guy [Jayson Tatum] by saying who's better... Don't worry about useless titles, it don't matter who the man is. Kobe's the man, Shaq's the man, it don't matter. I'm getting my 40, Kobe's getting his 39, let's go win a championship."
Ahead of Game 2, Mavericks coach Jason Kidd told reporters that he felt Brown was the Celtics' most important player, rather than Tatum. It appeared to be an attempt at some mind games from Kidd, aiming to pit Boston's two superstars against one another.
Although no one on the Celtics seem to have taken the comments to heart, O'Neal felt the need to offer his advice to Brown amid the outside chatter surrounding who truly lifts the team. Brown, though not quite understanding fully where Shaq was headed, politely accepted the advice from the all-time great.