The 2024 NBA Finals tip off on Thursday night, as the Boston Celtics look to add an 11th Larry O’Brien Trophy to their trophy case, while the Dallas Mavericks look to secure the franchise’s second-ever NBA title.
For viewing purposes, getting the opportunity to see a seven-game series between the Celtics and Mavericks would be wildly entertaining. It’s somewhat uncommon for an NBA Finals series to go the full seven games, however. Throughout history, the NBA Finals has gone the full distance of seven games only 19 times.
Most recently, the 2016 NBA Finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors was decided in seven games, but the past seven championships have been decided quicker than that.
Here’s a look at every NBA Finals series that has gone seven games:
YEAR
MATCHUP
1951
Rochester Royals def. New York Knicks
1952
Minneapolis Lakers def. New York Knicks
1954
Minneapolis Lakers def. Syracuse Nationals
1955
Syracuse Nationals def. Fort Wayne Pistons
1957
Boston Celtics def. St. Louis Hawks
1960
Boston Celtics def. St. Louis Hawks
1962
Boston Celtics def. Los Angeles Lakers
1966
Boston Celtics def. Los Angeles Lakers
1969
Boston Celtics def. Los Angeles Lakers
1970
New York Knicks def. Los Angeles Lakers
1974
Boston Celtics def. Milwaukee Bucks
1978
Washington Bullets def. Seattle Supersonics
1984
Boston Celtics def. Los Angeles Lakers
1988
Los Angeles Lakers def. Detroit Pistons
1994
Houston Rockets def. New York Knicks
2005
San Antonio Spurs def. Detroit Pistons
2010
Los Angeles Lakers def. Boston Celtics
2013
Miami Heat def. San Antonio Spurs
2016
Cleveland Cavaliers def. Golden State Warriors
Game 7’s have been few and far between in recent history. Since 1995, only four NBA Finals series have reached the coveted seventh game.
Of course, those that have gone the distance have resulted in some iconic moments, including the Cavaliers becoming the first team in league history to overcome a 3–1 deficit in the Finals in ’16 against the Warriors.
Of the 19 Game 7’s in NBA Finals history, only two have gone to overtime, and none since 1962 when the Celtics took down the Lakers.
Neither team shot the ball particularly well in Game 2 of the 2024 NBA Finals, but it was the Boston Celtics who emerged victorious over the Dallas Mavericks, securing a 2–0 lead in the series following Sunday's 105–98 win.
Jrue Holiday led the charge offensively for the Celtics, proving particularly effective from in around the rim as he scored a team-high 26 points on 11 for 14 shooting. Jaylen Brown played prolific two-way ball once again, providing lockdown defense while also contributing his share on offense with 21 points.
Jayson Tatum's shooting woes continued, but as has often been the case during the postseason, Boston's depth was able to help overcome that. Tatum shot 6 for 22 from the field, but was an excellent facilitator as he racked up 12 assists and added nine rebounds.
Dallas didn't go down quietly though. The Mavs cut a 14-point deficit into just five with around one minute left, but an emphatic Derrick White block put a stopper on the comeback hopes and capped off the win for Boston.
Kristaps Porzingis, who made his return to the starting lineup on Sunday, exited during the fourth quarter after suffering an apparent leg injury. He remained in the game briefly before checking out for Al Horford and did not return. His status will be something to monitor going forward.
For the Mavericks, it often felt that if Luka Doncic wasn't scoring, the team's offense simply wasn't functioning. Doncic provided 32 of Dallas's 98 points, shooting 12 for 21 from the field despite not being at full strength. Although he registered a triple-double in just the second NBA Finals game of his career, he also had eight turnovers in the loss, struggling to take care of the ball against the stalwart Boston defense.
Apart from Doncic, the rest of the team shot 26 for 59 (44%), including a woeful 2 for 17 (11.7%) showing from three-point range. Kyrie Irving had another lackluster performance with 16 points and six assists, marking his second consecutive game without making a single three.
The series will shift to Dallas for Games 3 and 4, and the Mavericks will need to get the job done on Wednesday if they want to avoid the perilous 3–0 deficit, which no team has ever overcome in NBA history.
Before they could get comfortable at TD Garden, the Boston Celtics opened up a 17-point lead after 12 minutes—the biggest lead for any team in the first quarter of a Game 1 in NBA Finals history. Boston continued to pile on and led by as many as 29 points in the second quarter before Dallas began chipping away.
The Mavericks trimmed the deficit to eight points in the third quarter but weren't able to fully complete the comeback, losing 107–89. If they did, it would've made NBA history.
The largest comeback in a single NBA playoff games is 31 points, set in 2019 when the Los Angeles Clippers erased a 31-point deficit to win Game 2 of their first-round playoff series against the Golden State Warriors. The Clippers outscored Golden State 85–58 in the second half to win that game.
But as far as the NBA Finals goes, the biggest comeback was when the Celtics battled back from 24 points down to beat the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 4 of the 2008 Finals.
DATE
MATCHUP
DEFICIT
FINAL SCORE
June 12, 2008
Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers
Lakers led by 24 points
Celtics 97, Lakers 91
The Celtics entered Game 4 of the 2008 NBA Finals holding a 2–1 series lead. They swept the first two games of the series at TD Banknorth Garden and lost 87–81 in an ugly defensive battle in Game 3 at then-Staples Center.
Los Angeles came out hot in the first quarter of Game 4, shooting 64.7% from the field and taking a 35–14 lead after 12 minutes while the Celtics shot just 27.3% (6 of 22). The Lakers built it up to a 24-point lead in the second quarter when Sasha Vujacic drained a three-pointer off a pass from Kobe Bryant to make it 45–21.
The score remained 45–21 for nearly two minutes of game time, as the teams exchanged misses, until Celtics forward Kevin Garnet knocked down a mid-range jumper. And the Celtics' comeback began.
Boston still trailed the Lakers by 18 points at halftime but came out firing in the third quarter, outscoring Los Angeles 31–15. They tied the game at 73 with 10:13 remaining in the fourth quarter, and took their first lead of the game at 84–83 with 4:07 remaining. From there, they closed out on a 13–8 run to win 97–91 and take a 3–1 series lead.
The Lakers led for 40:30 of game time. They couldn't miss in the first half but shot just 33.3% from the field in the final two quarters, missing all eight attempts from downtown. Bryant and Pau Gasol logged a plus/minus of -24 in the second half.
Garnet tallied a double-double in 37 minutes, scoring 16 points and grabbing 11 rebounds. But it was James Posey providing the spark off the bench, logging 18 points on 5-of-10 shooting and nailing four three-pointers.
Facing a 24-point deficit in the NBA Finals? As Garnett would go on to say after Boston claimed Game 6 and were crowned champions, anything is possible.
Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum. Kyrie Irving vs. Boston. Kristaps Porzingis vs. Dallas.
The stage is set for the 2024 NBA Finals, and we could be in for quite the series, especially since both of these teams have gotten a ton of rest since the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.
Game 1 – on June 6 – is still a few days away, but the betting markets for the NBA Finals are alive and well. Not only are there odds for the series winner, exact games and NBA Finals MVP, but bettors can also wager on series-long player props ahead of Game 1 as well.
Using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, I’m taking a deep dive into this series where the Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win their first title in the Jayson Tatum era – something that has been building all season long in the futures market.
Dallas, who is the No. 5 seed in the West, won three consecutive playoff series as a road team and underdog, but can it win one more? Doncic and Irving certainly are as well-equipped as a duo could be to lead their team to the promised land.
As someone who is holding a preseason future on Boston, there are several ways to play this series. But, before getting into my pick, let’s discuss the series odds, correct score and Finals MVP markets and how they may shake out.
Based on implied probability, Boston has a 67.74 percent chance to win this series, while Dallas clocks in at 36.36 percent.
It makes sense since Boston has home-court advantage in this matchup, but the Mavericks have played some great basketball as of late. Not only did they post the best defensive rating in the NBA over their last 15 games of the regular season, but they closed the season on a 16-4 run to earn the No. 5 seed.
Since the trade deadline, when Dallas acquired PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, it has been a totally different team.
However, there is one thing that I’ve been tracking for years that is working against Dallas in this series. Since the 1996-97 season, every team that has won the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in net rating during the regular season.
Dallas did not in the 2023-24 campaign.
Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
Is this the year that this trend breaks? It could be given how drastically the Mavs’ roster changed at the trade deadline. Dallas had a net rating of +1.3 before the All-Star break (around the trade deadline) and it ended up posting a +3.7 net rating in 27 games out of the All-Star break – which was good for 12th in the NBA.
I try not to read into these trends too much, but this one has extended over 25 years, so it’s going to take a special team to break it.
As for Boston, this has been the expectation for the team all season long. The C’s have been Finals favorites for most of the campaign, and they rolled through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs.
While Boston has been maligned for having an easier path to the Finals due to injuries to its opponents, the Celtics beat whoever was in front of them, going 12-2 on their run. It’s hard to be much better than that.
Since Boston is heavily favored to win this series, it has the three most likely outcomes in the correct score odds at DraftKings.
Given Boston’s dominance on the road (6-0 this postseason), it isn’t crazy to think that this series could be over in five or six games, even though Dallas has yet to face a Game 7 all postseason.
The Mavericks’ most likely outcome is to take the series in six games, with a four or five game win sitting as a massive long shot. Dallas has an implied probability of just 7.69 percent to win in five games and five percent to win in four games.
Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite to win NBA Finals MVP with Boston favored in this series, but can we count out Jaylen Brown?
Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, yet he’s +650 to win Finals MVP. Tatum has played much better as of late, but he started the postseason off in a bit of a shooting slump, and will likely draw one of Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. for the entirety of the series against Dallas.
Luka Doncic (+205) is also interesting since he leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made.
Obviously, Dallas would have to overcome being a massive underdog for Doncic to win this award, but at +205 he presents some more value than simply taking the Mavs to win the series. It’s tough to see any other Dallas player winning this award based on the odds, unless Kyrie Irving has a massive series scoring the ball.
Doncic has been a triple-double machine in these playoffs, so we know he’s going to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis, which would help him when it comes to the Finals MVP voting.
Even though oddsmakers don’t seem to think this matchup will be super close, I actually believe we’re in for a terrific series given how Dallas matches up defensively with the Celtics.
Washington, Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II are all versatile defenders that could match up with Tatum, Brown and Porzingis respectively on defense. On the Boston side of things, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are about as good of a duo as you can have to deal with the offensive expertise of Doncic and Irving.
Dallas and Boston have both thrived in clutch minutes so far this postseason, and each team has All-Star closers that can take over a game. If Porzingis is back – and it seems like he is trending in that direction – both teams will also be as healthy as they’ve been all playoffs now that Maxi Kleber is back from a shoulder injury for Dallas.
So where does Boston’s advantage truly lie?
While the Celtics faced three banged-up teams to up the playoffs, they dominated a good chunk of their games, only losing on masterful Game 2 shooting performances by Miami (23-for-43 from 3 in Game 2) and Cleveland (13-for-28 from 3 in Game 2). In both of those games, Boston failed to make double-digit 3-pointers, but it has been one of the best shooting teams all season.
Doncic and Irving present a challenge the C’s haven’t faced yet, but to say Boston isn’t battle tested is flat out wrong.
The Celtics are 6-0 on the road in the playoffs and turned three games in the Eastern Conference Finals where their opponent – the Indiana Pacers – had a 90 percent win probability or higher, into wins. Regardless of who is on the floor, that’s impressive resilience from a team that has played in big games a lot in the Tatum-Brown era.
Dallas’ role players are going to have to knock down shots in this series – and they have for most of the playoffs – but Boston has more offensive firepower when Porzingis is in the lineup. A lot of people are forgetting they rolled through the last two rounds without KP’s 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds on the floor.
Moving Al Horford to a smaller role should combat the problems Boston had defending the pick-and-roll this postseason, and Porzingis (if healthy) gives Boston elite rim protection against lob threats like Gafford and Lively.
Dallas’ offense doesn’t have the ability to spread the floor like Boston’s does, and while I believe Doncic is the best player in this series, Boston has shown all season long that it is the best team.
I don’t think Dallas gets run out of the building like Boston did to the East, but given the Celtics’ ability to win on the road in this postseason – and past postseasons – with this core, I think they clean this up in six games.
Pick: Celtics in 6 (+475)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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