When the Boston Celtics jumped out to a 91-70 lead at the start of the fourth quarter against the Dallas Mavericks during Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday night, many watching believed the game was over.
The Mavericks seemed spent, and the Celtics were firing on all cylinders offensively for what seemed like the first time in the series.
Then Dallas started getting stops, the crowd got back into the game, and the Mavericks were all of a sudden delivering on the offensive end to the tune of a 20-2 run that eventually cut the Boston lead all the way down to one.
Boston closed the game with a 13-6 spurt following Luka Doncic’s sixth foul with just over four minutes to play, and closed out Game 3 staring adversity square in the face – something that Celtics teams of the recent past may not have done. So how does Boston prepare for moments of intense adversity? It’s an interesting approach, according to Celtics star Jayson Tatum.
“Joe [Mazzulla] does a great job of showing us clips and things from different sports,” Tatum began. “He’s a big UFC fan, showing us fights of people that…I don’t know the terminology of UFC, but put him in a chokehold and s—. Like they’re about to tap out, and to see the guy or woman relaxing because they know they’re about to win and you give the other person life. Just trying to translate that to the game of basketball where the closer you are to winning, the closer they are to surviving. Basically just trying to remind us in a group that we’ve still got a long way to go. We still have to play the right way. We still gotta win. They’re not going to quit and we should expect the best from them from here on out.”
JT on how Joe Mazzulla uses UFC film to help the Celtics and motivate them to never quit pic.twitter.com/A3VQUfvHUY
— Celtics on NBC Sports Boston (@NBCSCeltics) June 13, 2024
The Celtics take a 3-0 series lead into Friday night’s Game 4, as Boston looks to raise banner No. 18, while the Mavericks will fight to keep their season alive.
Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum. Kyrie Irving vs. Boston. Kristaps Porzingis vs. Dallas.
The stage is set for the 2024 NBA Finals, and we could be in for quite the series, especially since both of these teams have gotten a ton of rest since the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.
Game 1 – on June 6 – is still a few days away, but the betting markets for the NBA Finals are alive and well. Not only are there odds for the series winner, exact games and NBA Finals MVP, but bettors can also wager on series-long player props ahead of Game 1 as well.
Using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, I’m taking a deep dive into this series where the Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win their first title in the Jayson Tatum era – something that has been building all season long in the futures market.
Dallas, who is the No. 5 seed in the West, won three consecutive playoff series as a road team and underdog, but can it win one more? Doncic and Irving certainly are as well-equipped as a duo could be to lead their team to the promised land.
As someone who is holding a preseason future on Boston, there are several ways to play this series. But, before getting into my pick, let’s discuss the series odds, correct score and Finals MVP markets and how they may shake out.
Based on implied probability, Boston has a 67.74 percent chance to win this series, while Dallas clocks in at 36.36 percent.
It makes sense since Boston has home-court advantage in this matchup, but the Mavericks have played some great basketball as of late. Not only did they post the best defensive rating in the NBA over their last 15 games of the regular season, but they closed the season on a 16-4 run to earn the No. 5 seed.
Since the trade deadline, when Dallas acquired PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, it has been a totally different team.
However, there is one thing that I’ve been tracking for years that is working against Dallas in this series. Since the 1996-97 season, every team that has won the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in net rating during the regular season.
Dallas did not in the 2023-24 campaign.
Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
Is this the year that this trend breaks? It could be given how drastically the Mavs’ roster changed at the trade deadline. Dallas had a net rating of +1.3 before the All-Star break (around the trade deadline) and it ended up posting a +3.7 net rating in 27 games out of the All-Star break – which was good for 12th in the NBA.
I try not to read into these trends too much, but this one has extended over 25 years, so it’s going to take a special team to break it.
As for Boston, this has been the expectation for the team all season long. The C’s have been Finals favorites for most of the campaign, and they rolled through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs.
While Boston has been maligned for having an easier path to the Finals due to injuries to its opponents, the Celtics beat whoever was in front of them, going 12-2 on their run. It’s hard to be much better than that.
Since Boston is heavily favored to win this series, it has the three most likely outcomes in the correct score odds at DraftKings.
Given Boston’s dominance on the road (6-0 this postseason), it isn’t crazy to think that this series could be over in five or six games, even though Dallas has yet to face a Game 7 all postseason.
The Mavericks’ most likely outcome is to take the series in six games, with a four or five game win sitting as a massive long shot. Dallas has an implied probability of just 7.69 percent to win in five games and five percent to win in four games.
Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite to win NBA Finals MVP with Boston favored in this series, but can we count out Jaylen Brown?
Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, yet he’s +650 to win Finals MVP. Tatum has played much better as of late, but he started the postseason off in a bit of a shooting slump, and will likely draw one of Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. for the entirety of the series against Dallas.
Luka Doncic (+205) is also interesting since he leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made.
Obviously, Dallas would have to overcome being a massive underdog for Doncic to win this award, but at +205 he presents some more value than simply taking the Mavs to win the series. It’s tough to see any other Dallas player winning this award based on the odds, unless Kyrie Irving has a massive series scoring the ball.
Doncic has been a triple-double machine in these playoffs, so we know he’s going to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis, which would help him when it comes to the Finals MVP voting.
Even though oddsmakers don’t seem to think this matchup will be super close, I actually believe we’re in for a terrific series given how Dallas matches up defensively with the Celtics.
Washington, Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II are all versatile defenders that could match up with Tatum, Brown and Porzingis respectively on defense. On the Boston side of things, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are about as good of a duo as you can have to deal with the offensive expertise of Doncic and Irving.
Dallas and Boston have both thrived in clutch minutes so far this postseason, and each team has All-Star closers that can take over a game. If Porzingis is back – and it seems like he is trending in that direction – both teams will also be as healthy as they’ve been all playoffs now that Maxi Kleber is back from a shoulder injury for Dallas.
So where does Boston’s advantage truly lie?
While the Celtics faced three banged-up teams to up the playoffs, they dominated a good chunk of their games, only losing on masterful Game 2 shooting performances by Miami (23-for-43 from 3 in Game 2) and Cleveland (13-for-28 from 3 in Game 2). In both of those games, Boston failed to make double-digit 3-pointers, but it has been one of the best shooting teams all season.
Doncic and Irving present a challenge the C’s haven’t faced yet, but to say Boston isn’t battle tested is flat out wrong.
The Celtics are 6-0 on the road in the playoffs and turned three games in the Eastern Conference Finals where their opponent – the Indiana Pacers – had a 90 percent win probability or higher, into wins. Regardless of who is on the floor, that’s impressive resilience from a team that has played in big games a lot in the Tatum-Brown era.
Dallas’ role players are going to have to knock down shots in this series – and they have for most of the playoffs – but Boston has more offensive firepower when Porzingis is in the lineup. A lot of people are forgetting they rolled through the last two rounds without KP’s 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds on the floor.
Moving Al Horford to a smaller role should combat the problems Boston had defending the pick-and-roll this postseason, and Porzingis (if healthy) gives Boston elite rim protection against lob threats like Gafford and Lively.
Dallas’ offense doesn’t have the ability to spread the floor like Boston’s does, and while I believe Doncic is the best player in this series, Boston has shown all season long that it is the best team.
I don’t think Dallas gets run out of the building like Boston did to the East, but given the Celtics’ ability to win on the road in this postseason – and past postseasons – with this core, I think they clean this up in six games.
Pick: Celtics in 6 (+475)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Game 3 of the NBA Finals is crucial for the Dallas Mavericks, as a loss would all be seal their fate against the Boston Celtics in this series.
Trailing 2-0, Dallas is looking to avoid the dreaded 3-0 series deficit -- something no team has ever come back from in a seven-game series in the history of the league.
On the bright side for Dallas, oddsmakers have favored Luka Doncic and company at home in Game 3.
The spread in Game 3 has moved since Kristaps Porzingis was diagnosed with a torn medial retinaculum allowing dislocation of the posterior tibialis tendon on Tuesday.
Porzingis is officially questionable for Game 3, and oddsmakers have moved Dallas from -2 to -2.5 in this game since the Porzingis injury was announced.
Boston has fared well without Porzingis this postseason, but he clearly makes the Celtics a better team, especially after dropping 20 points on 8-of-13 shooting from the field in Game 1.
Can Dallas pick up a win at home to keep its chances to win the Finals alive?
Boston Celtics on the Road
Boston has dominated on the road in the playoffs, going 6-0 straight up against the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers. Can it stay perfect against the Mavericks?
The C's are 22-22-3 against the spread on the road in the 2023-24 season overall, so their playoff performance has been even better.
Boston Celtics as Underdogs
This is just the fourth time this season that the Celtics are underdogs, and it's the first time in five months that they have been in this spot.
Boston is 1-2 against the spread as an underdog in the 2023-24 season. All of those games have come on the road.
Dallas Mavericks at Home
So far this season, Dallas is 25-24 against the spread at home, but that number is slightly better as a home favorite.
The Mavs are 19-17 against the spread as home favorites, although they have lost games at home in every series so far this postseason.
Teams Down 0-2 in Game 3
Dallas is down 0-2 in this series, but there is an interesting trend dating back to 2005 for these teams entering Game 3.
NBA teams down 0-2 at home since 2005:
• 91-47-1 first half ATS • 66-70-3 full game ATS
The first half trend has been even lately though, going just 13-14-1 1H ATS since 2020-21 (3-4 this year) pic.twitter.com/ecnq7LaJoo
However, the Celtics are the best team in the NBA against the spread in the first half this season, so bettors may want to be careful about having to lay points with Dallas, who is a slight favorite, in Game 3.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
The Boston Celtics are on the verge of winning its 18th NBA Championship in franchise history, and Finals MVP is starting to take shape.
It appears to be a two-man race for Finals MVP, and through three games, Jaylen Brown appears to be ahead, fresh off an outstanding 30 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists output in Game 3, including a clutch jump shot that helped stymie a late Mavericks run.
Brown is now the heavy favorite to win Finals MVP, with his teammate Jayson Tatum the only other one within striking distance.
Brown was the exclamation point on the Celtics second-half surge past the Mavericks, sparked by a 35-19 third quarter. Brown scored 15 points in the third quarter and 24 in the entire second half to finish with a healthy stat line.
He is averaging 24 points, six rebounds, and five assists while shooting 55% from the field in the NBA Finals, and also had the game-sealing jumper.
Tatum is the only other player in the mix, fresh off his best scoring performance of the series, putting in 31 points with six rebounds and five assists, but did shoot 11-for-26 as he continues to struggle with his shot. Tatum has been stuffing the stat sheet with 21 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists, but is shooting below 36% from the field.
Brown, who won Eastern Conference Finals MVP, looks primed to take home Finals MVP with Tatum’s inability to score efficiently, and with the Celtics well on its way to banner No. 18.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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