The Miami Heat were bounced from the NBA playoffs in five games by the Boston Celtics, but star Jimmy Butler believes things would have been different if he was healthy.
Butler suffered a sprained MCL during the play-in tournament against the Philadelphia 76ers. He missed all five games against the Celtics.
“If I was playing, Boston would be at home,” Butler recently said in an interview with Rock the Bells. “New York would d— sure be f–king at home.”
The Celtics cruised to the Eastern Conference’s best record (64–18) this season, but Butler’s confidence likely is coming from the rivals’ recent playoff history. The Heat got the better of Boston in both the 2020 and ’23 conference finals.
Butler was named the 2023 Eastern Conference finals MVP after tallying 24.2 points, 7.7 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game against the Celtics.
Butler ended his quick interview with Rock the Bells by addressing New York Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau, who he played for with the Chicago Bulls from 2011 to ’15 and again with the Minnesota Timberwolves from 2017 to ’19.
Thibodeau and the Knicks are set to face the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference semifinals after defeating the Philadelphia 76ers in six games.
“I love Thibs, but I don’t want him to win,” Butler said. “Thibs, I love you baby, but I want to beat you to a pulp. It’s like a one-sided relationship. You’re in love with me. I love you, but I’m not in love with you.”
Butler, 34, will be paid over $48 million by the Heat next season. He has a $52.4 million player option on his contract for the 2025-26 campaign.
Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum. Kyrie Irving vs. Boston. Kristaps Porzingis vs. Dallas.
The stage is set for the 2024 NBA Finals, and we could be in for quite the series, especially since both of these teams have gotten a ton of rest since the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.
Game 1 – on June 6 – is still a few days away, but the betting markets for the NBA Finals are alive and well. Not only are there odds for the series winner, exact games and NBA Finals MVP, but bettors can also wager on series-long player props ahead of Game 1 as well.
Using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, I’m taking a deep dive into this series where the Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win their first title in the Jayson Tatum era – something that has been building all season long in the futures market.
Dallas, who is the No. 5 seed in the West, won three consecutive playoff series as a road team and underdog, but can it win one more? Doncic and Irving certainly are as well-equipped as a duo could be to lead their team to the promised land.
As someone who is holding a preseason future on Boston, there are several ways to play this series. But, before getting into my pick, let’s discuss the series odds, correct score and Finals MVP markets and how they may shake out.
Based on implied probability, Boston has a 67.74 percent chance to win this series, while Dallas clocks in at 36.36 percent.
It makes sense since Boston has home-court advantage in this matchup, but the Mavericks have played some great basketball as of late. Not only did they post the best defensive rating in the NBA over their last 15 games of the regular season, but they closed the season on a 16-4 run to earn the No. 5 seed.
Since the trade deadline, when Dallas acquired PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, it has been a totally different team.
However, there is one thing that I’ve been tracking for years that is working against Dallas in this series. Since the 1996-97 season, every team that has won the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in net rating during the regular season.
Dallas did not in the 2023-24 campaign.
Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
Is this the year that this trend breaks? It could be given how drastically the Mavs’ roster changed at the trade deadline. Dallas had a net rating of +1.3 before the All-Star break (around the trade deadline) and it ended up posting a +3.7 net rating in 27 games out of the All-Star break – which was good for 12th in the NBA.
I try not to read into these trends too much, but this one has extended over 25 years, so it’s going to take a special team to break it.
As for Boston, this has been the expectation for the team all season long. The C’s have been Finals favorites for most of the campaign, and they rolled through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs.
While Boston has been maligned for having an easier path to the Finals due to injuries to its opponents, the Celtics beat whoever was in front of them, going 12-2 on their run. It’s hard to be much better than that.
Since Boston is heavily favored to win this series, it has the three most likely outcomes in the correct score odds at DraftKings.
Given Boston’s dominance on the road (6-0 this postseason), it isn’t crazy to think that this series could be over in five or six games, even though Dallas has yet to face a Game 7 all postseason.
The Mavericks’ most likely outcome is to take the series in six games, with a four or five game win sitting as a massive long shot. Dallas has an implied probability of just 7.69 percent to win in five games and five percent to win in four games.
Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite to win NBA Finals MVP with Boston favored in this series, but can we count out Jaylen Brown?
Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, yet he’s +650 to win Finals MVP. Tatum has played much better as of late, but he started the postseason off in a bit of a shooting slump, and will likely draw one of Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. for the entirety of the series against Dallas.
Luka Doncic (+205) is also interesting since he leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made.
Obviously, Dallas would have to overcome being a massive underdog for Doncic to win this award, but at +205 he presents some more value than simply taking the Mavs to win the series. It’s tough to see any other Dallas player winning this award based on the odds, unless Kyrie Irving has a massive series scoring the ball.
Doncic has been a triple-double machine in these playoffs, so we know he’s going to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis, which would help him when it comes to the Finals MVP voting.
Even though oddsmakers don’t seem to think this matchup will be super close, I actually believe we’re in for a terrific series given how Dallas matches up defensively with the Celtics.
Washington, Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II are all versatile defenders that could match up with Tatum, Brown and Porzingis respectively on defense. On the Boston side of things, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are about as good of a duo as you can have to deal with the offensive expertise of Doncic and Irving.
Dallas and Boston have both thrived in clutch minutes so far this postseason, and each team has All-Star closers that can take over a game. If Porzingis is back – and it seems like he is trending in that direction – both teams will also be as healthy as they’ve been all playoffs now that Maxi Kleber is back from a shoulder injury for Dallas.
So where does Boston’s advantage truly lie?
While the Celtics faced three banged-up teams to up the playoffs, they dominated a good chunk of their games, only losing on masterful Game 2 shooting performances by Miami (23-for-43 from 3 in Game 2) and Cleveland (13-for-28 from 3 in Game 2). In both of those games, Boston failed to make double-digit 3-pointers, but it has been one of the best shooting teams all season.
Doncic and Irving present a challenge the C’s haven’t faced yet, but to say Boston isn’t battle tested is flat out wrong.
The Celtics are 6-0 on the road in the playoffs and turned three games in the Eastern Conference Finals where their opponent – the Indiana Pacers – had a 90 percent win probability or higher, into wins. Regardless of who is on the floor, that’s impressive resilience from a team that has played in big games a lot in the Tatum-Brown era.
Dallas’ role players are going to have to knock down shots in this series – and they have for most of the playoffs – but Boston has more offensive firepower when Porzingis is in the lineup. A lot of people are forgetting they rolled through the last two rounds without KP’s 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds on the floor.
Moving Al Horford to a smaller role should combat the problems Boston had defending the pick-and-roll this postseason, and Porzingis (if healthy) gives Boston elite rim protection against lob threats like Gafford and Lively.
Dallas’ offense doesn’t have the ability to spread the floor like Boston’s does, and while I believe Doncic is the best player in this series, Boston has shown all season long that it is the best team.
I don’t think Dallas gets run out of the building like Boston did to the East, but given the Celtics’ ability to win on the road in this postseason – and past postseasons – with this core, I think they clean this up in six games.
Pick: Celtics in 6 (+475)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Luka Doncic fouled out in the fourth quarter of Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday night as the Boston Celtics defeated his Dallas Mavericks 106-99 at American Airlines Center.
Doncic finished with 27 points on 27 shots before he headed to the bench to watch his team's comeback fall short. His fifth and six fouls came in the fourth quarter on close calls that no Mavericks fan would ever agree with.
After the game. Doncic was asked about the whistles that went against him in the fourth. His response likely doesn't warrant a fine from the league, but reading between the lines, it doesn't seem like he agreed with the calls.
"I mean, I don't know," Doncic said. "We couldn't play physical so ... I don't know. I don't want to say nothing, but you know, six fouls in the NBA Finals? When I'm basically I'm like this. C'mon, man. [Be] better than that."
— CJ Fogler account may or may not be notable (@cjzero) June 13, 2024
While Mavs fans will certainly disagree with the calls that went against Doncic, everyone can agree that the officials were pretty bad in the fourth quarter. It seemed like everything was allowed early in the game, but by the end the only time officials didn't blow the whistle was when Derrick White grabbed Tim Hardaway Jr. right in front of a referee on purpose and pointed at the referee to confirm he was trying to foul and there was no call.
You can’t tell me changes don’t need to be made to officiating. Derrick white clearly intentionally fouled Hardaway looked at the ref, says foul, ref still doesn’t make the call. Refs have been horrible throughout all of the season but this is just embarrassing. pic.twitter.com/DdeKq8GCWd
Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks are underdogs in the 2024 NBA Finals, and public bettors... are loving it?
Dallas is around +175 to +180 (depending on the sportsbook) to win the Finals (an implied probability of 36.36 percent), yet more than 80 percent of the bets at BetMGM are on the Mavs to win the series against the Boston Celtics.
It's shocking to see bettors heavily backing Dallas since Boston has dominated the playoffs going 12-2 and finished the regular season with the best record and net rating in the NBA. Maybe it's the plus money that has bettors intrigued, but can Dallas really pull off the win in the Finals?
Earlier on Monday, yours truly broke down this NBA Finals matchup with the latest odds, players to watch and keys to winning the series.
I still believe that Boston -- with a healthy Kristaps Porzingis -- is the better team and will go on to win the title.
However, Dallas has certainly made a compelling argument since the last 20 games of the regular season. Not only did the Mavs finish those 20 games 16-4 with the best defensive rating in the NBA, but they also won three straight playoff series as a road team and underdog.
That's extremely impressive, and it could be what is causing this massive influx of public bets on the Mavs to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
Doncic and Kyrie Irving will have their hands full with a tough defense that features Jrue Holiday, Derrick White and Jaylen Brown, but if the Mavs' stars outplay Brown and Jayson Tatum, it could be enough to win this series.
Still, taking note of where the public's money is can be a helpful strategy when deciding where to bet on a series.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
