After ending the Miami Heat’s season with a 118-84 victory in Game 5 at TD Garden on Wednesday night, the Boston Celtics are on to the second round where they’ll face the winner of the first round series between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic.
The ultimate outcome of Boston moving on to the second round past the shorthanded Heat was expected, but after the Celtics lost Game 2 of the series in stunning fashion, critics bashed the toughness of this Celtics’ core, led by stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Why did the Celtics lose to the Golden State Warriors in the 2022 NBA Finals? Fans and media critics pointed to Boston’s lack of toughness.
Why did the Celtics lose to the Miami Heat in seven games in the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals? Fans and media critics once again pointed to Boston’s lack of toughness.
So with fans and media questioning Boston’s toughness earlier in the series, did it get to Tatum at all? Don’t count on it.
“No, I think [in] the world we live in, it’s gotta be something wrong with every team,” Tatum told the media Wednesday night. “That’s what they like to say. You can see how talented we are. I think it’s lazy, or easy, to say that teams can out-tough us, right? I never understood that. What’s the definition of tough? Having louder guys on your team? That s— don’t make you tough. Everybody has their own definition of what toughness is. It’s playing the right way, showing up every day to do your job without complaining. I think that’s being tough.”
Tatum: “What’s the definition of tough? Having the louder guys on your team? That shit don’t make you tough. Everybody has their own definition of what toughness is. It’s playing the right way, showing up every day to do your job without complaining. I think that’s being tough.” pic.twitter.com/SRzn1vdA6x
Whether Tatum likes it or not, the Celtics have had their fair share of head-scratching losses with their young superstar core over the past few postseasons, and in many cases, those losses have kept Boston from reaching its ultimate goal of winning an NBA championship.
The Celtics are hoping to break that trend with a title later this summer.
Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum. Kyrie Irving vs. Boston. Kristaps Porzingis vs. Dallas.
The stage is set for the 2024 NBA Finals, and we could be in for quite the series, especially since both of these teams have gotten a ton of rest since the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.
Game 1 – on June 6 – is still a few days away, but the betting markets for the NBA Finals are alive and well. Not only are there odds for the series winner, exact games and NBA Finals MVP, but bettors can also wager on series-long player props ahead of Game 1 as well.
Using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, I’m taking a deep dive into this series where the Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win their first title in the Jayson Tatum era – something that has been building all season long in the futures market.
Dallas, who is the No. 5 seed in the West, won three consecutive playoff series as a road team and underdog, but can it win one more? Doncic and Irving certainly are as well-equipped as a duo could be to lead their team to the promised land.
As someone who is holding a preseason future on Boston, there are several ways to play this series. But, before getting into my pick, let’s discuss the series odds, correct score and Finals MVP markets and how they may shake out.
Based on implied probability, Boston has a 67.74 percent chance to win this series, while Dallas clocks in at 36.36 percent.
It makes sense since Boston has home-court advantage in this matchup, but the Mavericks have played some great basketball as of late. Not only did they post the best defensive rating in the NBA over their last 15 games of the regular season, but they closed the season on a 16-4 run to earn the No. 5 seed.
Since the trade deadline, when Dallas acquired PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, it has been a totally different team.
However, there is one thing that I’ve been tracking for years that is working against Dallas in this series. Since the 1996-97 season, every team that has won the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in net rating during the regular season.
Dallas did not in the 2023-24 campaign.
Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
Is this the year that this trend breaks? It could be given how drastically the Mavs’ roster changed at the trade deadline. Dallas had a net rating of +1.3 before the All-Star break (around the trade deadline) and it ended up posting a +3.7 net rating in 27 games out of the All-Star break – which was good for 12th in the NBA.
I try not to read into these trends too much, but this one has extended over 25 years, so it’s going to take a special team to break it.
As for Boston, this has been the expectation for the team all season long. The C’s have been Finals favorites for most of the campaign, and they rolled through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs.
While Boston has been maligned for having an easier path to the Finals due to injuries to its opponents, the Celtics beat whoever was in front of them, going 12-2 on their run. It’s hard to be much better than that.
Since Boston is heavily favored to win this series, it has the three most likely outcomes in the correct score odds at DraftKings.
Given Boston’s dominance on the road (6-0 this postseason), it isn’t crazy to think that this series could be over in five or six games, even though Dallas has yet to face a Game 7 all postseason.
The Mavericks’ most likely outcome is to take the series in six games, with a four or five game win sitting as a massive long shot. Dallas has an implied probability of just 7.69 percent to win in five games and five percent to win in four games.
Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite to win NBA Finals MVP with Boston favored in this series, but can we count out Jaylen Brown?
Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, yet he’s +650 to win Finals MVP. Tatum has played much better as of late, but he started the postseason off in a bit of a shooting slump, and will likely draw one of Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. for the entirety of the series against Dallas.
Luka Doncic (+205) is also interesting since he leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made.
Obviously, Dallas would have to overcome being a massive underdog for Doncic to win this award, but at +205 he presents some more value than simply taking the Mavs to win the series. It’s tough to see any other Dallas player winning this award based on the odds, unless Kyrie Irving has a massive series scoring the ball.
Doncic has been a triple-double machine in these playoffs, so we know he’s going to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis, which would help him when it comes to the Finals MVP voting.
Even though oddsmakers don’t seem to think this matchup will be super close, I actually believe we’re in for a terrific series given how Dallas matches up defensively with the Celtics.
Washington, Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II are all versatile defenders that could match up with Tatum, Brown and Porzingis respectively on defense. On the Boston side of things, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are about as good of a duo as you can have to deal with the offensive expertise of Doncic and Irving.
Dallas and Boston have both thrived in clutch minutes so far this postseason, and each team has All-Star closers that can take over a game. If Porzingis is back – and it seems like he is trending in that direction – both teams will also be as healthy as they’ve been all playoffs now that Maxi Kleber is back from a shoulder injury for Dallas.
So where does Boston’s advantage truly lie?
While the Celtics faced three banged-up teams to up the playoffs, they dominated a good chunk of their games, only losing on masterful Game 2 shooting performances by Miami (23-for-43 from 3 in Game 2) and Cleveland (13-for-28 from 3 in Game 2). In both of those games, Boston failed to make double-digit 3-pointers, but it has been one of the best shooting teams all season.
Doncic and Irving present a challenge the C’s haven’t faced yet, but to say Boston isn’t battle tested is flat out wrong.
The Celtics are 6-0 on the road in the playoffs and turned three games in the Eastern Conference Finals where their opponent – the Indiana Pacers – had a 90 percent win probability or higher, into wins. Regardless of who is on the floor, that’s impressive resilience from a team that has played in big games a lot in the Tatum-Brown era.
Dallas’ role players are going to have to knock down shots in this series – and they have for most of the playoffs – but Boston has more offensive firepower when Porzingis is in the lineup. A lot of people are forgetting they rolled through the last two rounds without KP’s 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds on the floor.
Moving Al Horford to a smaller role should combat the problems Boston had defending the pick-and-roll this postseason, and Porzingis (if healthy) gives Boston elite rim protection against lob threats like Gafford and Lively.
Dallas’ offense doesn’t have the ability to spread the floor like Boston’s does, and while I believe Doncic is the best player in this series, Boston has shown all season long that it is the best team.
I don’t think Dallas gets run out of the building like Boston did to the East, but given the Celtics’ ability to win on the road in this postseason – and past postseasons – with this core, I think they clean this up in six games.
Pick: Celtics in 6 (+475)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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The Boston Celtics commemorated the late Bill Walton ahead of Game 1 of the NBA Finals against the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday, honoring the Hall of Famer with a touching tribute video and a moment of silence prior to tip-off.
Walton passed away on May 27 at age 71.
The two-time NBA All-Star won a championship with the Celtics in 1986, when he was the team's sixth man. Walton's family was in attendance for Game 1 at TD Garden on Thursday.
"Bill was a champion at every level and the embodiment of unselfish team play. He derived great joy from basketball and music and deeply cherished his moments with teammates, friends and family. We are proud to call him one of the greatest Celtics to ever live," said Celtics stadium PA announcer.
Before Game 1, the Celtics held a tribute and moment of silence for NBA legend Bill Walton. pic.twitter.com/8KmLWihnT2
In addition to the video and moment of silence, players donned a Walton-themed warmup shirt, which were distributed by the league ahead of the game. Additionally, Boston's coaching staff are wearing tie-dye pins with "WALTON" written in black letters.
Luka Doncic fouled out in the fourth quarter of Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday night as the Boston Celtics defeated his Dallas Mavericks 106-99 at American Airlines Center.
Doncic finished with 27 points on 27 shots before he headed to the bench to watch his team's comeback fall short. His fifth and six fouls came in the fourth quarter on close calls that no Mavericks fan would ever agree with.
After the game. Doncic was asked about the whistles that went against him in the fourth. His response likely doesn't warrant a fine from the league, but reading between the lines, it doesn't seem like he agreed with the calls.
"I mean, I don't know," Doncic said. "We couldn't play physical so ... I don't know. I don't want to say nothing, but you know, six fouls in the NBA Finals? When I'm basically I'm like this. C'mon, man. [Be] better than that."
— CJ Fogler account may or may not be notable (@cjzero) June 13, 2024
While Mavs fans will certainly disagree with the calls that went against Doncic, everyone can agree that the officials were pretty bad in the fourth quarter. It seemed like everything was allowed early in the game, but by the end the only time officials didn't blow the whistle was when Derrick White grabbed Tim Hardaway Jr. right in front of a referee on purpose and pointed at the referee to confirm he was trying to foul and there was no call.
You can’t tell me changes don’t need to be made to officiating. Derrick white clearly intentionally fouled Hardaway looked at the ref, says foul, ref still doesn’t make the call. Refs have been horrible throughout all of the season but this is just embarrassing. pic.twitter.com/DdeKq8GCWd
