At 25 years old, Luka Doncic is set to play in his first NBA Finals, looking to secure the first championship ring of his career.
The Dallas Mavericks have won just one NBA title in the franchise’s history, and coach Jason Kidd, who was on that championship-winning team, spoke briefly about Doncic’s legacy and where he ranks in franchise history.
When Richard Jefferson and Malika Andrews of ESPN asked whether defeating the Boston Celtics in this year’s NBA Finals could vault him ahead of Dirk Nowitzki and give him a rightful claim as the greatest player in Dallas history, Kidd didn’t deny the possibility.
“Yes. Yes,” Kidd said.
Jason Kidd says Luka would become “the greatest Maverick ever” with a championship. 🏆 pic.twitter.com/cMOyD8Iaij
Nowitzki was named Finals MVP for his efforts in the Mavs’ 2011 championship run. During the playoffs that year, he averaged 27.7 points and 8.1 rebounds while shooting at a stunning 46% clip from three-point territory. Doncic has averaged 28.8 points, 9.6 rebounds and is hitting 3.4 threes per game while shooting 34.3%.
Nowitzki, who was elected into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame in 2023, spent his entire 21-year career in Dallas, making 14 All-Star teams and earning All-NBA honors 12 times. Despite all his success and accolades, Kidd didn’t rule out the possibility of Doncic surpassing Nowitzki as the all-time greatest player in franchise history should he earn a ring this early into his career.
Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum. Kyrie Irving vs. Boston. Kristaps Porzingis vs. Dallas.
The stage is set for the 2024 NBA Finals, and we could be in for quite the series, especially since both of these teams have gotten a ton of rest since the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.
Game 1 – on June 6 – is still a few days away, but the betting markets for the NBA Finals are alive and well. Not only are there odds for the series winner, exact games and NBA Finals MVP, but bettors can also wager on series-long player props ahead of Game 1 as well.
Using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, I’m taking a deep dive into this series where the Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win their first title in the Jayson Tatum era – something that has been building all season long in the futures market.
Dallas, who is the No. 5 seed in the West, won three consecutive playoff series as a road team and underdog, but can it win one more? Doncic and Irving certainly are as well-equipped as a duo could be to lead their team to the promised land.
As someone who is holding a preseason future on Boston, there are several ways to play this series. But, before getting into my pick, let’s discuss the series odds, correct score and Finals MVP markets and how they may shake out.
Based on implied probability, Boston has a 67.74 percent chance to win this series, while Dallas clocks in at 36.36 percent.
It makes sense since Boston has home-court advantage in this matchup, but the Mavericks have played some great basketball as of late. Not only did they post the best defensive rating in the NBA over their last 15 games of the regular season, but they closed the season on a 16-4 run to earn the No. 5 seed.
Since the trade deadline, when Dallas acquired PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, it has been a totally different team.
However, there is one thing that I’ve been tracking for years that is working against Dallas in this series. Since the 1996-97 season, every team that has won the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in net rating during the regular season.
Dallas did not in the 2023-24 campaign.
Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
Is this the year that this trend breaks? It could be given how drastically the Mavs’ roster changed at the trade deadline. Dallas had a net rating of +1.3 before the All-Star break (around the trade deadline) and it ended up posting a +3.7 net rating in 27 games out of the All-Star break – which was good for 12th in the NBA.
I try not to read into these trends too much, but this one has extended over 25 years, so it’s going to take a special team to break it.
As for Boston, this has been the expectation for the team all season long. The C’s have been Finals favorites for most of the campaign, and they rolled through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs.
While Boston has been maligned for having an easier path to the Finals due to injuries to its opponents, the Celtics beat whoever was in front of them, going 12-2 on their run. It’s hard to be much better than that.
Since Boston is heavily favored to win this series, it has the three most likely outcomes in the correct score odds at DraftKings.
Given Boston’s dominance on the road (6-0 this postseason), it isn’t crazy to think that this series could be over in five or six games, even though Dallas has yet to face a Game 7 all postseason.
The Mavericks’ most likely outcome is to take the series in six games, with a four or five game win sitting as a massive long shot. Dallas has an implied probability of just 7.69 percent to win in five games and five percent to win in four games.
Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite to win NBA Finals MVP with Boston favored in this series, but can we count out Jaylen Brown?
Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, yet he’s +650 to win Finals MVP. Tatum has played much better as of late, but he started the postseason off in a bit of a shooting slump, and will likely draw one of Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. for the entirety of the series against Dallas.
Luka Doncic (+205) is also interesting since he leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made.
Obviously, Dallas would have to overcome being a massive underdog for Doncic to win this award, but at +205 he presents some more value than simply taking the Mavs to win the series. It’s tough to see any other Dallas player winning this award based on the odds, unless Kyrie Irving has a massive series scoring the ball.
Doncic has been a triple-double machine in these playoffs, so we know he’s going to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis, which would help him when it comes to the Finals MVP voting.
Even though oddsmakers don’t seem to think this matchup will be super close, I actually believe we’re in for a terrific series given how Dallas matches up defensively with the Celtics.
Washington, Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II are all versatile defenders that could match up with Tatum, Brown and Porzingis respectively on defense. On the Boston side of things, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are about as good of a duo as you can have to deal with the offensive expertise of Doncic and Irving.
Dallas and Boston have both thrived in clutch minutes so far this postseason, and each team has All-Star closers that can take over a game. If Porzingis is back – and it seems like he is trending in that direction – both teams will also be as healthy as they’ve been all playoffs now that Maxi Kleber is back from a shoulder injury for Dallas.
So where does Boston’s advantage truly lie?
While the Celtics faced three banged-up teams to up the playoffs, they dominated a good chunk of their games, only losing on masterful Game 2 shooting performances by Miami (23-for-43 from 3 in Game 2) and Cleveland (13-for-28 from 3 in Game 2). In both of those games, Boston failed to make double-digit 3-pointers, but it has been one of the best shooting teams all season.
Doncic and Irving present a challenge the C’s haven’t faced yet, but to say Boston isn’t battle tested is flat out wrong.
The Celtics are 6-0 on the road in the playoffs and turned three games in the Eastern Conference Finals where their opponent – the Indiana Pacers – had a 90 percent win probability or higher, into wins. Regardless of who is on the floor, that’s impressive resilience from a team that has played in big games a lot in the Tatum-Brown era.
Dallas’ role players are going to have to knock down shots in this series – and they have for most of the playoffs – but Boston has more offensive firepower when Porzingis is in the lineup. A lot of people are forgetting they rolled through the last two rounds without KP’s 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds on the floor.
Moving Al Horford to a smaller role should combat the problems Boston had defending the pick-and-roll this postseason, and Porzingis (if healthy) gives Boston elite rim protection against lob threats like Gafford and Lively.
Dallas’ offense doesn’t have the ability to spread the floor like Boston’s does, and while I believe Doncic is the best player in this series, Boston has shown all season long that it is the best team.
I don’t think Dallas gets run out of the building like Boston did to the East, but given the Celtics’ ability to win on the road in this postseason – and past postseasons – with this core, I think they clean this up in six games.
Pick: Celtics in 6 (+475)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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When Dallas Mavericks coach Jason Kidd said last week that Jaylen Brown was the Boston Celtics’ “best player,” it was widely believed that Kidd was playing mind games (an allegation Kidd denied) rather than expressing an earnest opinion about Boston’s hierarchy. But he may have been right.
Kidd’s initial assertion seemed outlandish because Jayson Tatum undoubtedly has a better résumé than Brown. (Tatum was named First-Team All-NBA in each of the past three seasons, while Brown has just one Second-Team selection to his name.) Brown is a star, but Tatum is a superstar. In the Finals, though, it’s Brown who has shone brightest.
Tatum struggled offensively in the first two games of the series, averaging 17 points per game on 31.6% shooting (although he contributed in other ways). And while Tatum was better in Game 3 (31 points on 11-of-26 shooting), he was quiet again in the fourth quarter as the Mavs mounted a ferocious comeback, making just one of his five field-goal attempts.
That’s when Brown stepped up.
The fourth quarter very nearly turned into a nightmare for the Celtics. Boston was able to stretch its lead to 21 points in the opening minutes but saw that lead evaporate as the Mavs reeled off a 22–2 run to cut the deficit to one. The only Boston basket scored during Dallas’s run—which lasted more than seven minutes—was by Brown. He played a huge role in helping stop the skid, scoring on a putback layup with 3:08 to play that made it 95–92 in favor of the Celtics and hitting a contested jumper with 1:01 to play that made it 102–98. He scored nine of Boston’s 21 points in the final quarter as the Celtics held on to win, 106–99.
“I mean, how can I explain Jaylen?” Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said. “The guy just has a growth mindset. He just wants to get better. He yearns to get better. He’s not afraid to face his weaknesses on the court. So when you have that type of mindset, you’re just going to be able to take on every situation that the game brings you. He puts himself in every single situation that he sees in a game. He uses six, seven, eight coaches a day, and every situation on both ends of the floor, he puts himself in that.
“And that’s how you have to grow, is to become vulnerable and on the things that make you uncomfortable, and he does that.”
Brown’s biggest play of the night, though, may have been the foul he drew on Luka Doncic with 4:12 to play. Brown attacked Doncic in transition and gave Doncic no choice but to commit a foul, causing him to foul out. Doncic’s absence changed the entire shape of the game. Once Doncic was forced to leave the floor, Dallas’s comeback came to a screeching halt. Kyrie Irving did his best to carry the Mavs, but Doncic’s absence allowed Boston's defense to zero in on Irving.
Doncic’s poor performance was the other main takeaway from Game 3. He scored 27 points, but his uninspired defense left him vulnerable to foul calls, eventually leading to his disqualification from the game. His constant complaints to the referees probably didn’t help flip any borderline calls in his favor, either.
Doncic has never been a great defender but that’s been especially problematic against a Boston team whose scoring depth makes hiding Doncic on defense impossible. And he’s clearly struggling with injuries that hinder his mobility, making him even more of a defensive liability. Doncic certainly looks like he could use a rest, and now that the Mavs have fallen behind 3–0 in the series, it appears he’ll be getting one very soon.
McIlroy is looking for his first major victory in a decade. / Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports
… things I saw last night:
5. The couple that got married in the stands during a Giants game. 4. Giancarlo Stanton’s 449-foot shot for his 17th home run of the season. Stanton, Juan Soto (17) and Aaron Judge (25) have combined for 59 homers this season, which is more than five teams have on the year. 3. Christian Pulisic’s free-kick goal vs. Brazil. 2. Angel Reese’s big game against the league-leading Sun. She had a career-high 20 points and 10 rebounds as she notched her fourth straight double double. 1. Jaylen Brown’s ferocious dunk at the end of the third quarter.
Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics have a 2-0 series lead over the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals, and that puts them in some great company all time.
There have been 36 teams that have led 2-0 in the NBA Finals, and they are 31-5 straight up in the series all time. Not only that, but Boston as a franchise has a 43-1 record when leading 2-0 in a playoff series, only losing in the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals.
The C's -- the finals favorite for most of the 2023-24 season -- are now -800 at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the title this season heading into Game 3 in Dallas on Wednesday night.
Based on these odds, the Celtics have an implied probability of 88.89 percent to win the title this season. Dallas -- at +550 -- has just a 15.38 percent chance based on implied probability.
Even though Boston is going on the road in Game 3, I wouldn't be worried as a Boston bettor.
The C's are a perfect 6-0 straight up on the road in the playoffs, and Dallas is just 25-24 against the spread at home in the 2023-24 season.
Betting strictly on a historic trend isn't the best way to wager on a series, but this is a great sign for bettors that are holding a Celtics future. In fact, there is one bettor that wagered $215,000 on the Celtics to win the series prior to the start of the NBA Finals.
Boston is set as a slight underdog heading into Game 3 despite being 14-2 straight up this postseason.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
