The New England Patriots signed quarterback Jacoby Brissett to a one-year contract this offseason, and went on to select UNC quarterback Drake Maye with No. 3 pick in the 2024 NFL draft.
These two quarterback decisions set up a competition for the starting role in 2024. The previous starter, Mac Jones, was sent to the Jacksonville Jaguars back in March.
Most quarterbacks would likely feel nervous about the intense quarterback battle, especially against a top draft pick, but Brissett is more excited about the aspect of competition than anything.
“That’s all out of my control, so I don’t really worry about that. I’m excited to have him on the team, and the other guys as well that we drafted and picked up. I think it’s going to be good,” Brissett said, via ESPN. “Competition brings out the best in all of us, so I’m excited about that part.”
Whoever earns the starting quarterback role will be the first starter under new coach Jerod Mayo. Longtime coach Bill Belichick parted ways with the team after 24 seasons.
Brissett is coming off a one-year stint with the Washington Commanders in which he appeared in three games. He threw for 224 yards and three touchdowns.
Five years ago, in “The Art of Coaching” documentary that highlighted the bond between Bill Belichick and Nick Saban, the then-Alabama coach ripped off a rant on NFL teams, and how they handled evaluating his players ahead of the draft.
“One thing that you do, that a lot of the NFL guys don’t do, I don’t know that you’ve ever picked one of our guys if you never talked to me before picking him,” Saban said to Belichick. “And there’s a few other guys in the league that do that. But then there’s another 30 teams that I never hear from, and then they pick somebody and I’m saying, ‘They picked that guy?’ And then they say, ‘Well, we didn’t know this.’ Well, all you had to do is call and I would have told you the good stuff and I would’ve told you any issue.”
Count the Detroit Lions as a team that listens to Saban.
Two consecutive years, they’ve come away from the NFL draft with the guy NFL folks had tabbed as the legendary coach’s favorite in the class. Last year, it was Brian Branch, who became an integral part of the Detroit defense, and a Swiss Army knife for defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. This year, it’s Terrion Arnold, a corner the Lions never thought would be there in the 20s.
Detroit had actually laid groundwork for a trade up—I believe Missouri DE Darius Robinson was the target—which made it easy to pivot and get aggressive in going up from No. 29 to No. 24 to land a falling Arnold.
For his part, Saban loved how Arnold took hard coaching, and attacked the challenge the coaches put in front of him, in sticking with him at corner rather than projecting him to safety like other schools had in recruiting him. Also, Detroit took note of how Saban played him at the “star” position (nickel corner), as well as outside corner. As the Lions see it, being deployed as the star at Alabama is a huge sign of trust and respect from Saban, because of the mental and physical burden he puts on that spot, and the versatility he demands from it.
Branch, for what it’s worth, played a lot there, too.
In this case, it wasn’t like it had been the year before, where GM Brad Holmes personally connected with Saban (they’d talked about Branch and Jahmyr Gibbs last year). But Detroit did have a couple of high-level staffers get to Saban on Arnold, confirming what they’d seen. Which, in the end, made going after Arnold a no-brainer when he slipped.
• There are a lot of stories where a fortunate twist can play into a team drafting a certain player—and the Chargers will have one of those from 2024 if, years from now, OT Joe Alt becomes the sort of franchise cornerstone Joe Hortiz and Jim Harbaugh think he can be.
The fact that the GM and coach were new did limit, to a degree, what they were personally able to do during this draft cycle. But the Chargers were able to get guys out on the road enough, both on the coaching and scouting side. And one such lieutenant that traveled around was veteran line coach Mike Devlin.
As luck would have it, he was assigned to run drills for the offensive line prospects at Notre Dame’s pro day in March. That allowed Devlin to challenge Alt, and to also get to know him better with the extra time he’d get with the Irish captain. Now, it’s not like there were too many revelations on the visit. Everyone knew what sort of player he was. But with the Chargers also liking Alabama RT JC Latham, the little things did make a difference.
The biggest question now is where Alt will fit on the line. All 33 of his starts at Notre Dame came at left tackle, the position Rashawn Slater plays for the Chargers. The plan is to let Alt compete for the starting right tackle spot. That said, he played tight end in high school, and wound up starting at left tackle as a true freshman at Notre Dame. So the lift might not be as heavy for Alt as it would be for others.
And that’s what made this pick so easy for the Chargers. Alt will figure it out, and at a baseline be a really good pro with a chance to be much better, making him the rare high floor-high ceiling prospect. He has some stuff to work on such as his ability to anchor (though the Chargers would tell you to watch how, in those spots, he bends and recovers). But with the presence and intelligence he showed the Chargers in meetings, it’s a good bet that Alt will keep ascending.
• The Chiefs did right by Travis Kelce, giving the future Hall of Famer what amounts to a plain-old raise Monday—usually teams will require adding years to a player’s contract in exchange, or moving money away from a future year, for giving them this sort of pay bump.
Kelce’s existing contract had a $12 million base salary for this year, with another $750,000 in per-game roster bonuses, and a $250,000 roster bonus. The Chiefs gave him another $4 million, guaranteeing all $17 million for 2023. They left his $17.25 million for 2025 intact, added a trigger that’ll guarantee most of it in March (in the form of an $11.5 million roster bonus due on the third day of the league year), and force the team to make a decision on whether to keep him at the start of free agency.
The two-year deal makes Kelce the highest paid tight end in the NFL heading into a season in which he’ll turn 35. It’s also, truth be told, not that big of a number. He’s making less, in fact, on an APY (average per year) basis than Cleveland Browns WR Jerry Jeudy. Which is to say everything is relative, and in that sense a great tight end is a much better deal in today’s NFL than is a good receiver.
• As happy as the Minnesota Vikings were to get J.J. McCarthy where they did with the 10th pick, I’d say they were more surprised that pass rusher Dallas Turner slipped as deep into the teens as he did, which prompted the reaction from Kevin O’Connell that the team’s in-house crew captured.
In the end, they got two guys who were projected in the top 10 in a series of trade-ups without giving up an additional first-round pick to do it. The downside? It comes in volume. They wound up with seven picks after coming in with nine, and none of those picks came on Day 2 (they had one pick between 17 and 177, and that was at 108). As it stands now, they will have only four picks next year—their own first-rounder, a third-round compensatory pick for Kirk Cousins, their own fifth-rounder, and another fifth-rounder they acquired in the Za’Darius Smith trade.
• With the deadline Thursday, we know that nine of the top 12 picks in the 2021 draft have had their fifth-year option picked up. The three that haven’t, and won’t, are all quarterbacks who have been traded—Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Justin Fields.
The teams that took those three certainly felt the pain of the misses, but each has recovered nicely. And throw Mac Jones in there, and you have four of five first-round quarterbacks from that year’s class dealt, without a single Day 1 or Day 2 pick included in any of the four trades.
• Interestingly enough, only six of the remaining 22 first-rounders from that year have had their fifth-year options picked up.
• Ezekiel Elliott showed last year with the New England Patriots that he can still play. That said, the Dallas Cowboys can’t run him the way they did in Elliott’s previous stint. I was pretty surprised, as such, that the Cowboys didn’t use one of their eight picks on the position, though they do think highly of Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn.
• It wasn’t a huge surprise that the New York Giants punted on quarterback with Drake Maye three picks before their first-round selection at No. 6—word circulated around the NFL that New York had become a Maye-or-no-QB team over the couple of weeks leading up to the draft. And since they did offer their 2025 first-rounder to get to No. 3, you can see New York saw a gap between the top three and the next three in the class.
• As for how the teams had the guys ranked, the Vikings really dove in on the guys after the top two, and had Maye (for whom they offered 11, 23 and a 2025 first-rounder, with pick swaps favoring them bringing some value back), then McCarthy. The Falcons had Michael Penix Jr. behind Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels (with a few folks in their building personally having Penix second). And Denver had Nix behind only Williams and Daniels.
• I can appreciate the video of Colts GM Chris Ballard saying the Indianapolis Colts got the draft’s best pass rusher in Laiatu Latu. Most people, maybe all, I talked to about the UCLA star before the draft told me his tape was the best among the pass rushers. But that’s not the question with Latu; it’s the condition of his nick. But if he’s healthy? Paired with DeForest Buckner in that front, look out.
In the 2024 NFL draft, there were 257 players selected.
Some are going to become solid role players. Others will make a Pro Bowl or two. Then there are the select stars who become perennial Pro Bowlers and even see some All-Pro teams. Finally, a couple will be fitted for gold jackets in Canton.
Unfortunately, there’s the opposite reality as well. For every star, there will be 20 players who don’t make an impact. Of those, many will be late-round fliers. But a few will come from the first few rounds, players expected to make a difference only to fade into football oblivion.
So which of the AFC picks surrounded by hype could be cautionary tales in the coming years? It’s time to take a hard look at not only the player but the team and situation, along with potential pitfalls out of their control.
5. Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
Why he’ll be a bust: To be clear, Maye has a very good chance of succeeding. He has all the tools. This is more about the situation around him, and the pressure on Maye because of the past few years under Bill Belichick.
Maye is going to a team with a first-year, defensive-minded head coach in Jerod Mayo. He’s also entering a roster which doesn’t have a proven, star weapon on the outside. It’s a big ask of Maye, although it’s not impossible. Want proof? Look at C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans.
4. Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills
Why he’ll be a bust: Coleman is a massive receiver. At the combine, the Florida State product checked in at 6'3"and 213 pounds. With the Seminoles in 2023, he was the top receiver for a team which almost made the College Football Playoff.
The problems, though, are evident. He struggled to separate against college corners, largely because of his 4.6 speed. And his contested catch rate was 33% last season despite a size advantage on almost every snap. For the Bills, this is a gamble on measurables and Josh Allen. Fair enough, but the bust potential is there.
3. Amarius Mims, OT, Cincinnati Bengals
Why he’ll be a bust: Mims might be the biggest wild card in this class. On tape, he’s an absolute monster in both the run and pass game, dominating edge defenders with considerable ease. Also, at 6'8"and 340 pounds, the size is unquestionable.
However, Mims started only eight games in college, and injuries were a consistent concern, too. The Bengals are banking on him finally staying healthy and reaching his potential, which is becoming an All-Pro talent. For Cincinnati, which has struggled to field a quality offensive line in front of Joe Burrow, it’s an understandable risk.
2. T’Vondre Sweat, DT, Tennessee Titans
Why he’ll be a bust: Sweat is powerful as a defensive tackle who can get up the field and destroy blockers at times. The problem? He wasn’t always that guy. At Texas, Sweat played in 51 games and totaled just 17.5 tackles for loss and five sacks.
Additionally, there are questions about Sweat away from the field. In early April, he was arrested on suspicion of DWI. Tennessee took a chance on him anyway as a second-round pick despite some believing he shouldn’t come off the board until Day 3. It’s a risky move at a position that wasn’t a huge need, considering Tennessee already has Jeffrey Simmons inside.
1. Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
Why he’ll be a bust: Nix has a few things going against him. First, the Broncos are terrible around him. One could argue they have the worst roster in the NFL, including a leaky offensive line and a weapons group that has Courtland Sutton and not much else.
But the problems aren’t only about the supporting cast. Denver is also taking a chance on a kid who struggled mightily at Auburn, leading to his transfer. When playing within a pro-style offense with the Tigers for three seasons, Nix completed less than 60 percent of his attempts. Finally, he’s 24 years old. Has he already hit his ceiling?
Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the NFL, in order of projected 2024 win totals. Up next: the Patriots.
But the New England Patriots don’t plan on handing the starting job to the No. 3 pick in the draft. Instead, they’re going to make Maye earn it by competing against veteran Jacoby Brissett in training camp.
Whether it’s Maye or Brissett, the Patriots’ offense could have an uphill battle with roster concerns at the skill positions and on the offensive line. The Patriots re-signed versatile offensive lineman Mike Onwenu, but have plenty of inexperience and it doesn’t help that Cole Strange might not be ready for the start of the season because of injury.
The Patriots are going to need to decide whether it’s worth it to trot out Maye with a poor supporting cast. But there might be a 2023 sixth-round pick who could make life easier for him.
The Patriots’ defense, on the other hand, has the makings of turning into a top-10 unit under the guidance of Mayo, who has coached on that side of the ball in New England for the past five seasons. They have a strong core group, with defensive tackle Christian Barmore, edge rusher Matthew Judon, cornerback Christian Gonzalez and safety Kyle Dugger. If the defense dominates, the Patriots will surprise the football public and win more than four games this season.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Firing Belichick, hiring Mayo
Mayo replaced Belichick after joining his staff in 2019. / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
It’s no secret that Kraft and Belichick had somewhat of a rocky relationship in the lead up to Kraft firing the legendary head coach in January. It was a delicate situation for Kraft, and maybe one that wasn’t handled properly on either side. But Kraft at least had a succession plan, one that he kept intact whenever Mayo had coaching opportunities elsewhere. Kraft has had high expectations for Mayo since he joined Belichick’s coaching staff in 2019. Now the team owner will find out whether he made the right decision by promoting Mayo to head coach without interviewing other candidates, which is a gamble in itself. That’s a lot of pressure for Mayo, especially with a roster that might not be ready to push for the postseason for another year or two.
Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 1 to 6
The Patriots are currently underdogs in every game this season, according to odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. But it might not get tougher than the first six weeks of the season. New England starts on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals, followed by a home game against the Seattle Seahawks before going back on the road for back-to-back games against Aaron Rodgers’s New York Jets and the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers. They then return home to host the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans. And it doesn’t get easier from there with the Jacksonville Jaguars in London for Week 7.
Breakout player to watch: WR DeMario Douglas
Douglas was targeted 79 times and had 49 receptions for 561 yards, averaging 11.4 yards per catch in 2023. / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
The Patriots’ receiving corps is regarded as one of the weakest in the NFL, but football pundits might be overlooking what Douglas accomplished as a sixth-round rookie last season. After shining as a camp standout, Douglas stepped up late in the season for a Patriots’ offense desperately needing playmakers. Douglas was targeted 79 times and had 49 receptions for 561 yards, averaging 11.4 yards per catch. Douglas might not be a true No. 1 wideout yet, but he definitely proved himself as a starter in 2023. The Liberty product could be set for a memorable second season if the Patriots get decent quarterback play in ’24.
Best-case scenario: Maye wins Offensive Rookie of the Year
Proving the doubters wrong with a final record of .500 or better would be a monumental achievement for Mayo in his first season. But for the Patriots to return to being a perennial winner, they’re going to need Maye to find his footing quickly and show flashes of being a legitimate franchise quarterback. He doesn’t have to play as well as C.J. Stroud did last season, but if he passes the eye test and routinely displays an elite skill set resembling Josh Allen or Justin Herbert, then that should be enough to bring back excitement for the Patriots’ fan base. But first, Maye will need to beat out Brissett for the starting job in training camp.
Worst-case scenario: Patriots go back and forth with Maye, Brissett
If the Patriots are rotating quarterbacks again, which they did with Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe the past few seasons, that would probably be an indicator that Maye wasn’t ready to start and the team is enduring another rough season. It will be up to Mayo on when to start Maye, a situation that could become difficult if he decides to go with Brissett in the season opener. In this scenario, Mayo would face public pressure and nonstop questions from the media on when he plans to start Maye, especially if the team has a rough start. Ideally, the Patriots would like Maye to make the decision easy, but if he’s not ready to play, maybe sitting him for a year—like Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love—could be a better option than rotating quarterbacks.
The Patriots are starting anew with Mayo and Maye, hoping the duo finds even a modicum of success compared to Bill Belichick and Tom Brady’s 20-year run. For New England, 2024 will be great if Mayo and Maye look like keepers, regardless of the win-loss record. —Matt Verderame
Sleeper fantasy pick: Drake Maye
The third pick in the draft, Maye comes with high expectations after two consecutive strong seasons at North Carolina. While Jayden Daniels is the name that comes to mind when we think of a running quarterback among the rookies, Maye gained more than 1,100 yards and had 16 rushing scores in his past two collegiate seasons. Most rookie quarterbacks who make an impact can do so with their legs, so Maye fits the bill. —Michael Fabiano
Best bet: Patriots under 4.5 wins (+135) at DraftKings
I like this plus-money option for the team with the second-hardest schedule
in the NFL. Defensive holes, a mediocre offensive line, questions at quarterback, a receiving corps featuring Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, and rookie wideouts Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, and a new coach all point to value on the under. —Jen Piacenti
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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