Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics have a 2-0 series lead over the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals, and that puts them in some great company all time.
There have been 36 teams that have led 2-0 in the NBA Finals, and they are 31-5 straight up in the series all time. Not only that, but Boston as a franchise has a 43-1 record when leading 2-0 in a playoff series, only losing in the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals.
The C’s — the finals favorite for most of the 2023-24 season — are now -800 at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the title this season heading into Game 3 in Dallas on Wednesday night.
Based on these odds, the Celtics have an implied probability of 88.89 percent to win the title this season. Dallas — at +550 — has just a 15.38 percent chance based on implied probability.
Even though Boston is going on the road in Game 3, I wouldn’t be worried as a Boston bettor.
The C’s are a perfect 6-0 straight up on the road in the playoffs, and Dallas is just 25-24 against the spread at home in the 2023-24 season.
Betting strictly on a historic trend isn’t the best way to wager on a series, but this is a great sign for bettors that are holding a Celtics future. In fact, there is one bettor that wagered $215,000 on the Celtics to win the series prior to the start of the NBA Finals.
Boston is set as a slight underdog heading into Game 3 despite being 14-2 straight up this postseason.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Early in the fourth quarter it looked like Boston was going to cruise to a 3–0 series lead. A Derrick White three staked the Celtics to a 21-point lead with 11 minutes to play. The three-point line was hot and the Mavericks looked finished. Then P.J. Washington hit a three. Then Luka Doncic hit a layup. Then Dereck Lively II tipped in a miss. A 12–0 run cut the lead to nine with eight minutes to play. A 20–2 run made it a one-possession game with six minutes to play.
Doncic was hot. Kyrie Irving was rolling. Dallas had life.
With 4:38 to play, Doncic picked up his fifth personal foul. Bad. Fewer than 30 seconds later, he picked up his sixth. Worse. Dallas, faced with trying to complete the comeback with its All-NBA guard on the bench, crumbled. An Irving jumper briefly cut the lead to one but Boston quickly pushed it back up to three, then six, then eight. And that was your ball game.
“We had a good chance,” Doncic said. “We were close. Just didn’t get it. I wish I was out there.”
Said Jayson Tatum, “The game of basketball is about runs, and this is at the highest level. You know, it’s the best team in the West at this point. They are going to make shots. They are going to go on a run, and it’s just all about how do you respond.”
When Dallas surged to an early 13-point first-quarter lead, there was Tatum, scoring 20 of his 31 points in the first half to keep the game close. When Boston needed buckets down the stretch, there was Jaylen Brown, who scored 24 of his 30 in the second half, including nine in the fourth quarter.
It wasn’t a flawless game. Tatum struggled with his shot, finishing 11-for-26. Brown was 2-for-9 from three-point range. But they refused to get discouraged. It was Tatum’s driving dunk in traffic that pushed the Celtics’ lead to six late in the fourth quarter. It was Brown’s 21-footer that put the game away. For just the second time in Celtics history, two players scored at least 30 points in a Finals game. And when the final buzzer sounded, the two stars embraced near center court.
“Just you know showing the emotions of the game,” Tatum said. “Two guys that were excited, tired, that, you know, after the game. We’re not necessarily saying like, ‘One more,’ or anything like that. We are just saying, ‘However long it takes.’ Nobody is relaxed. Nobody is satisfied. Just at that moment, you know, just told him I was proud of him and he said the same thing. That we’ve got to keep fighting. We can’t relax.”
Role players have become the story of this series. For Boston, the first two games were dominated by Kristaps Porzingis, who returned from a 38-day absence to help power Boston to a 2–0 series lead. In Game 3, with Porzinigis out, it was White (16 points) and Sam Hauser (nine) making shots. Al Horford stretching out for 37 minutes. Xavier Tillman, playing his first minutes of this series, finishing a +9 in 11 minutes.
“I just think that top to bottom, we trust everybody, and we just compete at a high level,” White said. “Obviously, they are great players, and it’s a challenge but [it’s] just consistently being in the right position and just competing.”
Tillman came up big in Game 3, playing his first minutes of the Finals. / Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
On Dallas’s side, it was more of the same. Washington chipped in nine points during Dallas’s fourth-quarter comeback but finished with 12 overall. Derrick Jones Jr. was a non-factor. Maxi Kleber, too. Jason Kidd dusted off Tim Hardaway Jr. for 20 minutes. Hardaway finished 0-for-5. In the first half, Kidd’s rotation went 11 deep.
“We were trying to find someone to come off the bench and give us a spark,” Kidd said. “It doesn’t always have to be someone making a shot. I thought the guys that played tonight helped us get the lead or get back into the game.
“When you look at some of the guys who played, we got good looks, some of them made them, some of them didn’t. I thought the group that played, once that third quarter got away from us, it just showed the group kept playing.”
In the conference playoffs, Luke Kornet gobbled up the bulk of the non-Porzingis minutes. In Game 3, Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla went with Tillman, in part because of the ex-Memphis Grizzlies forward’s experience against the Mavericks. Tillman responded by knocking down a corner three in the third quarter and swatting away two shots.
“Big shout out to X,” White said. “To not be in the rotation but to stay locked in and he gives us big-time minutes. He just does a little bit of everything out there. Then he guarded his ass off and hit a big shot and rebounds, and he just did a little bit of everything for us. Credit to him. Great, great teammate, great guy, and he was big for us.”
The statistics say no. Of the 156 teams that have trailed 3–0 in an NBA playoff series, zero have come back to win it. The more pressing concern is if Dallas can avoid a sweep. Doncic struck an optimistic tone at his postgame news conference. “Being down 21 in the third game and then coming back was a really positive thing for us,” he said. And the Mavs did get a breakout game from Irving (35 points). But as talented as Doncic and Irving are, they are not getting enough help. And a Celtics team that nearly completed a 3–0 comeback last season isn’t sounding like one ready to let this one slip away.
“You have to expect the expected,” Mazzulla said. “You’ve got to understand we are just as vulnerable if not more vulnerable than they are. And we have to play that way. So as long as we have that mindset, and when you understand that you’re vulnerable and your back’s against the wall, you’ve got to fight. And so that’s the mindset that we have to have.”
There are several key trends to know ahead of Game 1, starting with Boston's record as a home favorite. The C's are 26-21-2 against the spread as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of 14.4 points per game.
Boston also has the best against the spread record in the first half of games this season (63-32-1).
Dallas Mavericks on the Road
The Mavericks are an NBA-best 34-16 against the spread on the road, but we can break that down even further.
As a road underdog, Dallas is 14-11 against the spread, which isn't as great, but it thrived as a road favorite, going 20-5 ATS. Unfortunately, the Mavs are road dogs in Game 1.
Game 1 Favorites Dominate Since 2005
Since 2005 Game 1 favorites are an insane 16-3 against the spread, and going back the past 30 years, they are 21-9 against the spread.
Boston is favored by 6.5 points in Game 1, and it has covered in two of the three opening games of its playoff series.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
The reunion between Kyrie Irving and the Boston Celtics won't be the only meeting of a player with their former team during the 2024 NBA Finals. Kristaps Porzingis will also be up against his old squad, having played for the Dallas Mavericks back from 2019 to '21.
On Monday, Fanduel's Chandler Parsons suggested there was some bad blood between Porzingis and Luka Dončić stemming from their time as a tandem in Dallas.
Dončić addressed the claims from Parsons on Tuesday, indicating he and Porzingis have a good relationship, despite their on-court efforts not yielding much success, and added that he's scarcely ever even spoken to Parsons.
"I've talked to Chandler Parsons maybe twice in my life, so I don't know how he would know... But me and KP have a good relationship," said Dončić, via Joey Mistretta of ClutchPoints.
Chandler Parsons previously said that Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis don’t have a good relationship.
Porzingis joined the Mavs and was paired alongside Dončić with the goal of making an elite offensive tandem. Expectations were not quite met, however, and the plug was pulled on the experiment after a little more than two seasons.
They've both since gone on to find success, with Porzingis playing a vital role for the Celtics as they earned the league's best record in the regular season and Dončić emerging as arguably the sport's best player and leading his Mavericks to their first NBA Finals appearance since 2011.
Porzingis was also asked about the situation with Dončić in Dallas, though he didn't want to spend too much time on the topic.
"It didn't work out. I think it was–yeah. I don't know, I'm not even thinking about that right now. I'm focused on the job ahead. We can talk about that later," said Porzingis, via Noa Dalzell of SB Nation.
Kristaps Porzingis didn't want to get into the weeds of his relationship with Luka / his Mavericks tenure today:
"It didn't work out. I think it was - yeah. I don't know, I'm not even thinking about that right now. I'm focused on the job ahead. We can talk about that later." pic.twitter.com/GU2S0vrVAs