Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics have a 2-0 series lead over the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals, and that puts them in some great company all time.
There have been 36 teams that have led 2-0 in the NBA Finals, and they are 31-5 straight up in the series all time. Not only that, but Boston as a franchise has a 43-1 record when leading 2-0 in a playoff series, only losing in the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals.
The C’s — the finals favorite for most of the 2023-24 season — are now -800 at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the title this season heading into Game 3 in Dallas on Wednesday night.
Based on these odds, the Celtics have an implied probability of 88.89 percent to win the title this season. Dallas — at +550 — has just a 15.38 percent chance based on implied probability.
Even though Boston is going on the road in Game 3, I wouldn’t be worried as a Boston bettor.
The C’s are a perfect 6-0 straight up on the road in the playoffs, and Dallas is just 25-24 against the spread at home in the 2023-24 season.
Betting strictly on a historic trend isn’t the best way to wager on a series, but this is a great sign for bettors that are holding a Celtics future. In fact, there is one bettor that wagered $215,000 on the Celtics to win the series prior to the start of the NBA Finals.
Boston is set as a slight underdog heading into Game 3 despite being 14-2 straight up this postseason.
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At long last, the NBA Finals are just a day away, and I’m ready to lock in three plays for Game 1 – all of which end up being on the Boston side.
Earlier this week, I made my official prediction for this series (Boston Celtics in 6), and like many NBA fans, I’m ready for this series between Boston and the Dallas Mavericks to start.
This season, I’ve bet on the NBA every day that there have been games, and while we’re not positive on the year at the moment, a Celtics preseason future could get us there – depending upon how these Finals go.
We’re starting strong in Game 1 with three plays – two props and one side – with Boston entering the game as a 6.5-point favorite.
Eastern Conference Finals MVP Jaylen Brown has been terrific in the playoffs, averaging 25.0 points per game while shooting 54.3 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from 3-point range.
Brown has been much more efficient than Jayson Tatum, and he finds himself with a points prop that is four points lower than his co-star in Game 1.
I love the OVER here for Brown, who has cleared 22.5 points in nine of his 14 playoff games, including all four of his matchups in the Eastern Conference Finals.
While the return of Kristaps Porzingis could eat into Brown’s usage, I don’t expect KP to return to his normal role in his first game back from a calf injury. Brown has played a ton of minutes, clearing 40 in three of his last five games, and he’s taken at least 17 shots in 11 of 14 games this postseason.
JB has some serious value at this number ahead of Game 1.
Jrue Holiday OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-122) – 0.5 unit
Jrue Holiday may not win an ECF MVP or Finals MVP, but he has been a massive difference maker in his first season in Boston.
Holiday’s defensive prowess makes him a staple in Joe Mazzulla’s rotation, and dating back to the second round he’s really stuffed the stat sheet overall.
Holiday is averaging 17.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game over his last seven games, clearing 22.5 PRA in six of those contests.
I imagine Holiday will draw the assignment on either Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving, and he should play heavy minutes in Game 1. Betting on Boston props is a little volatile since we don’t know Porzingis’ usage, but this number has dropped significantly for Holiday compared to the 25.5 and 26.5’s that we saw in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The only NBA champion on the Boston roster should continue his strong play in Game 1.
Boston Celtics -6.5 (-110) vs. Dallas Mavericks – 0.5 unit
I think that bodes well for a Boston team that covered in two of its three Game 1s so far this postseason and was 37-4 straight up at home in the regular season. The C’s also posted a 26-21-2 against the spread record as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of victory of 14.4 points.
I have a lot of respect for the run Dallas made, but Jason Kidd’s team has struggled in Game 1s since he took over, going 1-5 straight up and losing four of those five games by seven or more points.
Boston – the best team in the NBA all season long – has been disrespected in my eyes entering this series. It went 12-2 on its run to the Finals and easily posted the best net rating of any team in the playoffs.
I’ll lay the points with the C’s in Game 1.
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Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum. Kyrie Irving vs. Boston. Kristaps Porzingis vs. Dallas.
The stage is set for the 2024 NBA Finals, and we could be in for quite the series, especially since both of these teams have gotten a ton of rest since the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.
Game 1 – on June 6 – is still a few days away, but the betting markets for the NBA Finals are alive and well. Not only are there odds for the series winner, exact games and NBA Finals MVP, but bettors can also wager on series-long player props ahead of Game 1 as well.
Using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, I’m taking a deep dive into this series where the Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win their first title in the Jayson Tatum era – something that has been building all season long in the futures market.
Dallas, who is the No. 5 seed in the West, won three consecutive playoff series as a road team and underdog, but can it win one more? Doncic and Irving certainly are as well-equipped as a duo could be to lead their team to the promised land.
As someone who is holding a preseason future on Boston, there are several ways to play this series. But, before getting into my pick, let’s discuss the series odds, correct score and Finals MVP markets and how they may shake out.
Based on implied probability, Boston has a 67.74 percent chance to win this series, while Dallas clocks in at 36.36 percent.
It makes sense since Boston has home-court advantage in this matchup, but the Mavericks have played some great basketball as of late. Not only did they post the best defensive rating in the NBA over their last 15 games of the regular season, but they closed the season on a 16-4 run to earn the No. 5 seed.
Since the trade deadline, when Dallas acquired PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, it has been a totally different team.
However, there is one thing that I’ve been tracking for years that is working against Dallas in this series. Since the 1996-97 season, every team that has won the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in net rating during the regular season.
Dallas did not in the 2023-24 campaign.
Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
Is this the year that this trend breaks? It could be given how drastically the Mavs’ roster changed at the trade deadline. Dallas had a net rating of +1.3 before the All-Star break (around the trade deadline) and it ended up posting a +3.7 net rating in 27 games out of the All-Star break – which was good for 12th in the NBA.
I try not to read into these trends too much, but this one has extended over 25 years, so it’s going to take a special team to break it.
As for Boston, this has been the expectation for the team all season long. The C’s have been Finals favorites for most of the campaign, and they rolled through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs.
While Boston has been maligned for having an easier path to the Finals due to injuries to its opponents, the Celtics beat whoever was in front of them, going 12-2 on their run. It’s hard to be much better than that.
Since Boston is heavily favored to win this series, it has the three most likely outcomes in the correct score odds at DraftKings.
Given Boston’s dominance on the road (6-0 this postseason), it isn’t crazy to think that this series could be over in five or six games, even though Dallas has yet to face a Game 7 all postseason.
The Mavericks’ most likely outcome is to take the series in six games, with a four or five game win sitting as a massive long shot. Dallas has an implied probability of just 7.69 percent to win in five games and five percent to win in four games.
Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite to win NBA Finals MVP with Boston favored in this series, but can we count out Jaylen Brown?
Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, yet he’s +650 to win Finals MVP. Tatum has played much better as of late, but he started the postseason off in a bit of a shooting slump, and will likely draw one of Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. for the entirety of the series against Dallas.
Luka Doncic (+205) is also interesting since he leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made.
Obviously, Dallas would have to overcome being a massive underdog for Doncic to win this award, but at +205 he presents some more value than simply taking the Mavs to win the series. It’s tough to see any other Dallas player winning this award based on the odds, unless Kyrie Irving has a massive series scoring the ball.
Doncic has been a triple-double machine in these playoffs, so we know he’s going to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis, which would help him when it comes to the Finals MVP voting.
Even though oddsmakers don’t seem to think this matchup will be super close, I actually believe we’re in for a terrific series given how Dallas matches up defensively with the Celtics.
Washington, Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II are all versatile defenders that could match up with Tatum, Brown and Porzingis respectively on defense. On the Boston side of things, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are about as good of a duo as you can have to deal with the offensive expertise of Doncic and Irving.
Dallas and Boston have both thrived in clutch minutes so far this postseason, and each team has All-Star closers that can take over a game. If Porzingis is back – and it seems like he is trending in that direction – both teams will also be as healthy as they’ve been all playoffs now that Maxi Kleber is back from a shoulder injury for Dallas.
So where does Boston’s advantage truly lie?
While the Celtics faced three banged-up teams to up the playoffs, they dominated a good chunk of their games, only losing on masterful Game 2 shooting performances by Miami (23-for-43 from 3 in Game 2) and Cleveland (13-for-28 from 3 in Game 2). In both of those games, Boston failed to make double-digit 3-pointers, but it has been one of the best shooting teams all season.
Doncic and Irving present a challenge the C’s haven’t faced yet, but to say Boston isn’t battle tested is flat out wrong.
The Celtics are 6-0 on the road in the playoffs and turned three games in the Eastern Conference Finals where their opponent – the Indiana Pacers – had a 90 percent win probability or higher, into wins. Regardless of who is on the floor, that’s impressive resilience from a team that has played in big games a lot in the Tatum-Brown era.
Dallas’ role players are going to have to knock down shots in this series – and they have for most of the playoffs – but Boston has more offensive firepower when Porzingis is in the lineup. A lot of people are forgetting they rolled through the last two rounds without KP’s 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds on the floor.
Moving Al Horford to a smaller role should combat the problems Boston had defending the pick-and-roll this postseason, and Porzingis (if healthy) gives Boston elite rim protection against lob threats like Gafford and Lively.
Dallas’ offense doesn’t have the ability to spread the floor like Boston’s does, and while I believe Doncic is the best player in this series, Boston has shown all season long that it is the best team.
I don’t think Dallas gets run out of the building like Boston did to the East, but given the Celtics’ ability to win on the road in this postseason – and past postseasons – with this core, I think they clean this up in six games.
Pick: Celtics in 6 (+475)
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There are no issues between Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Pressure? Well …
Last week, the four-letter network made waves by reigniting a long-dormant debate about Tatum and Brown’s relationship. Only there is no debate. Tatum and Brown are fine. Always have been. They have known each other since high school, when they competed at an Under Armour camp. They are, as Brown noted last week, “polar opposites.” But whenever the trade rumors swirled around Brown over the years, Tatum has backed him. When Tatum won a gold medal at the 2021 Olympics, Brown celebrated with him. In ’22, while reporting a Sports Illustrated cover story on the Boston Celtics, I asked Tatum’s longtime trainer, Drew Hanlen, if he had any thoughts on the Tatum-Brown relationship.
“Jayson brags about how good Jaylen is,” Hanlen told me. “How there aren’t many players he would trade straight up for him. Any narrative that they didn’t like each other, that they can’t win together is totally made up.”
Indeed, they can win together. Boston has made six conference finals in the Tatum-Brown era. Two NBA Finals. Four seasons of 50-plus wins. In a league that covets elite two-way wings, the Celtics have a pair of them.
Still, Boston’s duo has reached a critical juncture. The 2022 Finals defeat was disappointing. But, in a way, excusable. The Golden State Warriors were elite. They had championship-level talent and years of experience with it. Did the Celtics gag away a potential 3–1 series lead in Game 4? Maybe. More accurate would be Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and the Warriors went out and took it.
“This time, this go-around is a lot different,” Tatum said. “You don’t always get a second chance, so really just looking at it as a second chance and trying to simplify things as much as we can.”
Curry shoots the ball against Tatum and Brown during Game 5 of the 2022 NBA Finals. / Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Added Al Horford, “The first time [in 2022], it felt like a roller coaster, just a lot going on, increased coverage in media, all the responsibilities we had and everything that came with it. This time around, we all have an understanding. We know what things are like and I feel like we’ll be able to manage it better.”
This year, there are no Warriors. The Dallas Mavericks are good. They have Luka Doncic, a superstar. Kyrie Irving, a premiere wingman. P.J. Washington, Dereck Lively II and Derrick Jones Jr. can play. The defense has improved considerably since midseason acquisitions to acquire Washington and Daniel Gafford. While the Celtics were cruising through the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers, the Mavericks were muscling out the Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves.
Still, the Celtics are heavy favorites. They are six deep with All-Star–level talent. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are elite defenders. Kristaps Porzingis, who appears to be tracking toward a Game 1 return, is a terror on both ends of the floor. Horford, who celebrated his 38th birthday on Monday, is ageless.
And they have Tatum and Brown. This has not been a flawless postseason run. There have been some clunkers. Tatum’s 7-for-17 performance in a Game 2 loss to Cleveland. Brown’s 0-for-6 three-point stat line in the same game. But the Celtics are 12–2 in the playoffs, with Tatum (26.0 points on 44.2% shooting) and Brown (25.0 points, 54.1% shooting) leading the way.
Now, though, comes the real test. The scrutiny of Tatum and Brown’s relationship is unfair. “The whole thing about that really pisses me off,” coach Joe Mazzulla said. Raising expectations for their play is not. Curry and Thompson won’t be remembered for conference championships. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray aren’t defined by 50-win seasons. If Tatum and Brown want to be regarded as an elite duo, they need to win a title.
For years, Tatum has been among the NBA’s most scrutinized stars. He’s a great scorer … just not always in the clutch. He’s a strong defender … just not one of the best. Even as Tatum’s game has grown—in the post, at the rim, in his playmaking—he’s often viewed as a cut below the NBA’s best.
Brown, too. Brown signed the richest contract in NBA history last summer. He responded with a season (23.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, a career-best 3.6 assists) worthy of it. In Boston, Brown will always be the second star. But that doesn’t mean he can’t be one of the best wings in the game.
Mazzulla and Brown understand the magnitude of what is at stake in the 2024 Finals. / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
“As long as my team knows my value, my city knows my value, my family, that’s all I really care about,” Brown said. “But I like to set my hat on just being a versatile two-way wing [who] can do both at any point in time.”
Tatum and Brown understand the stakes. A series win springboards them into rarified air, a tandem with a title, and a chance to win more. A loss opens them up for criticism and more questions about whether the pairing really works.
“I think [it’s unfair] being compared to each other,” Mazzulla said. “They’re different. And you see other duos around the league don’t have to go through that. And it’s because of the platform that they have. It’s because they’ve been so successful their entire careers. They’ve been able to long stand success at a high level.”
Now it’s time to do it at the highest. Two years ago, in the immediate aftermath of a Game 6 loss, Tatum slumped in his locker. In TD Garden, the visiting locker room is directly across from the home one, making the roar of the Warriors’ celebration unavoidable. Walking to his car that night, Tatum could hear the Champagne-soaked afterparty still raging. He vowed never to forget that feeling. He swore he would never let an opportunity like that slip away again. Two years later, Tatum, still alongside Brown, will get that chance.
