Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Fantasy managers rely on statistics to inform their decisions, but sometimes numbers are just numbers. Sometimes a player has a breakout game, compiles a gazillion yards and is a fantasy darling for one week. He’s the top target on the waiver wire that week—and then promptly fades into fantasy irrelevance.
Every Sunday evening, the NFL Communications staff sends out a “Six From Sunday” email with interesting statistical-based notes about that day’s games. Often, they come up with some crazy combination of scenarios that has only happened once or twice in history. After Week 7’s Sunday slate, the NFL gave us this note about Bengals QB Joe Burrow:
Burrow is the third player in NFL history with at least 475 passing yards, three touchdown passes and one rushing touchdown in a single game, joining Norm Van Brocklin (September 28, 1951) and Billy Volek (December 19, 2004).
O.K., well, Norm Van Brocklin is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, so that’s good company for Burrow. But Billy Volek? A career backup who started 10 games in a nine-year NFL career? Eight of those starts came in 2004 with the Tennessee Titans. In the game referenced above, Volek passed for 492 yards, representing 20% of his passing yards that season. Yes, Joe Burrow is very good, and maybe he’s on his way to a Hall of Fame career. But I’m not impressed that he matched a feat once accomplished by Billy Volek.
On the other hand, Sunday’s email contained an impressive note about Josh Jacobs, who rushed for 144 yards and three touchdowns in a win over the Texans — and it’s very good news for all fantasy managers who have the Raiders running back on their roster.
Jacobs, who rushed for 144 yards and two touchdowns in Week 4 and 154 yards and one touchdown in Week 5 before the team’s Week 6 bye, is the fifth player since 2000 to register at least 140 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in three consecutive games, joining Derrick Henry (2019), Larry Johnson (2005), Adrian Peterson (2012) and Ricky Williams (2002).
Jacobs is currently the RB4 in both standard and PPR fantasy leagues, and the company he’s joined with this three-game stretch is promising. Here’s a look at those other four players who rushed for 140 yards and a TD in three straight games and how they finished those seasons:
Derrick Henry (2019): Led the NFL with 1,540 rushing yards, scored 16 rushing touchdowns and finished as the RB2 in fantasy
Larry Johnson (2005): Rushed for 1,750 yards and 20 TDs, and finished as the RB2.
Adrian Peterson (2012): Led the NFL with 2,097 yards and scored 1’2 rushing TDs, finished as the RB1
Ricky Williams (2002): Led the NFL with 1,853 rushing yards, ran for 16 scores, and finished as the RB2
In other words, this is not the time to sell high on Jacobs. History suggests he will continue to produce and be a major fantasy factor.
Big-time backups
Even before reaching the halfway mark, the 2022 fantasy football season has served as a reminder of just how critical it is to grab those handcuffs. Now that the Jets’ offensive line is playing well and standout rookie Breece Hall is out with an ACL injury, Michael Carter will be the hottest name on this week’s waiver wire. Unless that is, he’s already on someone’s roster. And while last week’s big add was Ravens running back Kenyan Drake, smart fantasy managers scooped up Gus Edwards, who rushed for 66 yards and two scores Sunday and will no doubt be the team’s lead back now that J.K. Dobbins is out for an extended period. Fantasy managers who grabbed D’Onta Foreman didn’t necessarily think the Panthers were going to trade Christian McCaffrey; they just figured CMC would be injured. Regardless, Foreman got 15 carries and rushed for 118 yards in Carolina’s upset win over the Bucs. Chuba Hubbard scored nine carries and a touchdown, but Foreman is the main option there.
Still, the biggest handcuff disappointment remains Melvin Gordon. When Javonte Williams went down for the season, Gordon—who rushed for 918 yards in a shared role last season—was in line for a big year. Sunday’s line: 11 carries for 33 yards. Ouch.
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