We’re on the cusp of the wild-card round and there are six games on tap. Playoff performances count for more in the minds of many dynasty managers but we have to remember: While the game carries more weight, it’s just another piece to the puzzle. You could’ve noted last year that Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon rushed for 61 yards and caught six passes for 81 yards and a touchdown in last year’s 42-21 wild-card win over the Steelers. Although it took about two-thirds of the 2022 season for McKinnon to blossom and get enough touches to make an impact. Bills TE Dawson Knox had five catches for 89 yards and two scores in Buffalo’s 47-17 wild-card drubbing of New England. He followed that up with two catches for nine yards in their divisional round 42-36 loss to the Chiefs. That’s how it goes. We can see a player’s ceiling and then their floor—both outcomes being just as meaningful as the other.
A couple weeks back, I graded my picks from Weeks 1-4 and I felt I did well. And last week, I covered Weeks 5-8, but the grades left a lot to be desired. If you’d like to recap the articles, you can find them here:
Dynasty Stock Watch: Week 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13
Week 9: Justin Fields (hold/buy), Jonathan Taylor (hold/buy)
After a decent, but not great first six weeks of the season, Fields started to take off in Weeks 7 and 8 and then went nuts for a few weeks with huge rushing performances (178/1, 147/2, 85/1, 71/1, 95). He finished the year with 1,143 rushing yards and eight TDs—a stat line a la Lamar Jackson. The jury was still out on Fields coming into 2022 and after a month, I still wasn’t feeling him. Something shifted and while he peaked around this time, we’re now left wondering what his future holds as speculation ramps up on whether the Bears will draft a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick. I don’t believe they will and it’s all subterfuge from here on out to curry trade interest. Grade: A
Taylor’s draft stock was slipping two months into the season and a couple decent weeks were then offset by a season-ending high-ankle sprain injury. A year ago, the stud back’s trade value was about 30% higher than it is now. Even with said decline, I believe he’s still a top-six dynasty running back in the mix with Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler and Kenneth Walker III. I could understand just about any order here with Taylor in the two to six slots. While the hold/buy advice translates into a small overpay or devaluation since I wrote the article, the offseason should be kind to him as the Colts’ disappointing 2022 season fades ever so slightly from our minds. Silver linings and so on. Grade: C-
Week 10: Malik Willis (hold/buy), Greg Dulcich (sell/hold)
I don’t like Malik Willis. I don’t think he’s any good. I felt the same way about Justin Fields a year ago, and I did pivot on Fields eventually. I don’t hold that optimism for the young Titans’ quarterback. I only recommend the hold/buy if you’re extremely patient and have the bench depth to sit on him indefinitely. Willis’s low price point is why I would even consider it. Acquiring him can’t pay off anytime soon, so his grade can’t be good until he is. Grade: D
Dulcich went on a mini-run from Weeks 6-8 (2/44/1, 6/51, 4/87), which were gaudy numbers for any tight end at this stage of the year. At that moment, Dulcich’s trade value doubled. There’s promise here if the Broncos rebound in any way or Russell Wilson starts cooking again. But my opinion remains firm that tight ends are a dime a dozen unless they’re one of the elite-tier guys. I’d have happily taken an early 2023 second rounder for him and his price tag is a touch higher now despite not doing a whole lot in the second half of the year. Grade: B+
Week 11: Cooper Kupp (hold), Desmond Ridder (buy/hold)
After writing about Kupp as a rebuilder’s sell-now option in my Week 7 stock watch, he went and got himself hurt in Week 11. We didn’t know it yet but he wouldn’t return in 2022. Kupp’s trade value fell off a sheer cliff after his injury. My advice here was that you missed your trade window and you either held him for a fantasy playoff return (which never came) or you hold him until there’s another selling window (which hasn’t come either). Add the Sean McVay turmoil and now you hope you can find a dynasty manager who’s given up on him and is willing to sell at a discount (one future first). Tough to grade such a murky situation. He’s still elite—it’s just that his ceiling trade value a couple months ago will never recover. Grade: C
I felt like we’d see Ridder any day now ahead of Week 11, but it took another month. Ridder didn’t do a whole lot right with his starts in Weeks 15-18, but he didn’t do much wrong either. Have we seen enough? Not really. He only played 271 snaps. The jury’s still out and a full offseason after a rookie year can do wonders. I still believe he’s a buy/hold despite a minor bump in value, if that counts for anything. Grade: B+
(Note: No Week 12 Dynasty Stock Watch due to Thanksgiving holiday.)
Week 13: Josh Jacobs (buy/hold), Zach Wilson (hold), Mike White (sell)
In Week 12, Jacobs went off with 304 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns. And I was still buying because his trade value hardly moved. Jacobs is still considered about the RB8 by dynasty managers. He’ll be 25 next year, which is a full year younger than Saquon Barkley, yet most have Barkley ahead of Jacobs and Jacobs scored more fantasy points this season. Go figure. Grade: A-
Regardless of how he’s played, Zach Wilson is still a hold. You’re in lock step with the real Jets. They can’t trade him because he’s not worth much. And you can’t just give up on him because he’s so cheap with so much upside. That’s the conundrum. You grit your teeth and hold Wilson. There’s no other move. Grade: B
Mike White went 22-for-28 for 315 yards and three scores in Week 12. And I began his blurb in this article: “Don’t. Just don’t.” If you have Wilson, I could understand acquiring White as something of a handcuff. But White only is given the opportunity to succeed if Wilson fails again. The sell advice was to remind everyone White wasn’t any good and Week 12 was a fluke. I’d say I nailed it. Grade: A+
