Craig Counsell knows how to get a team into October. Over the past five seasons, the Brewers’ manager has led his team to a September winning percentage of .603. Only the Dodgers (.713), Rays (.629) and Astros (.619) have been better closers in that time. Milwaukee has reached the postseason four straight seasons.
But this time the numbers appear stacked against Milwaukee. The Brewers have 21 games to run down either the Padres (down two games in the loss column) or Phillies (four games) for a wild-card spot. Might as well add one more game to those deficits because Milwaukee lost the season series to San Diego and Philadelphia, so the Brewers lose on both tiebreakers.
The tiebreak against the Padres was decided June 5 when Counsell did not bring back one-inning specialist Josh Hader to pitch the 10th after a 15-pitch ninth inning. Jake Cronenworth homered off Trevor Gott for the decisive Padres win.
Figure the win total the Brewers likely will need is 89. That means Milwaukee will have to finish 14–7—with starters Eric Lauer, Aaron Ashby and Freddy Peralta on the injured list, and a strikeout-heavy, low-batting-average offense that relies on home runs to win. The Brewers haven’t won four games in a row in six weeks, during which they are 19–22.
Looks ominous, right? But one thing we have learned about Counsell and his Brewers is they squeeze every bit of edge out of each game and each season. They clinched playoff spots each year from 2018 through ’21 with no more than three games remaining. They are the best team in baseball at winning one-run games over the past five seasons (117–77, .603).
What is their narrow path to an NL wild card this time?
1. The Phillies or Padres collapse
Under manager Rob Thomson, the Phillies are playing cleaner baseball with better defense and situational hitting. Philadelphia does have 12 games remaining against the Braves (7), Astros (3) and Blue Jays (2), but it looks poised to break the NL’s longest playoff drought.
San Diego has trouble with the Dodgers (4–12), with three more to play against them. Its starting pitching should be good enough to avoid a meltdown, but San Diego has been wildly inconsistent this season. Juan Soto and Josh Bell, both slugging under .400 with their new team, have not jolted a mediocre offense. The Padres finish with nine at home against the Dodgers, White Sox and Giants.
2. Home cooking
Milwaukee is in a stretch of playing 20 of its final 26 games at home, where it is 39–27. (The Brewers are 4–1 so far). No more two-city trips. No more games out of the Central time zone.
3. Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff
Over the past two months the Brewers are 10–6 when their two aces take the ball. They’ll get it eight more times. The Brewers need at least six wins in those eight games because of uncertainty about the rotation depth.
4. Continued revival from Christian Yelich
His skill set now defines him as an elite leadoff hitter, no longer the extra-base machine and run producer he was in 2018 and ’19. In the leadoff spot his OBP is .392. Only Paul Molitor (1987 and ’91) ever got on base at a better rate for Milwaukee in at least 70 games out of the leadoff spot.
Back on July 27, Yelich was so frustrated with his career-worst rate of ground balls that he junked his leg kick for a toe-tap mechanism. It worked for a bit, but after five weeks his slug with the toe tap was just about the same (.395) as it had been before (.381), so he dropped the toe tap Sept. 5 in Colorado. With his first swing after returning to the usual leg kick, he hit a 499-foot homer. He has slashed .300/.382/.500 since then.
Yelich isn’t the same power threat he was a few years ago as a perennial MVP contender, but he’s finding success as a viable leadoff man.
AP Photo/David Zalubowski
5. More lockdown relief from Devin Williams
The trade of Hader on Aug. 1 may seem like a turning point for Milwaukee (it is only 18–21 since then), and the deal created brief clubhouse confusion, but Hader wasn’t throwing the ball well at the time (12.54 ERA in July) and has been even worse with the Padres (13.50 ERA in 11 games).
Since he replaced Hader as closer, Williams is six of seven in save chances. Matt Bush, Brad Boxberger and Taylor Rogers are solid go-to setup guys for Counsell in close games.
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6. The next eight
The next week is dangerous. The Brewers can’t win a playoff spot in the next week, but they could lose it: two games in St. Louis against the Cardinals, followed by a six-game homestand against the Yankees and Mets.
But Milwaukee does have a knack for rising to the occasion. This year the Brewers are one of only seven teams to have played at least .500 baseball against winning teams (27–27). That’s better than the NL Central–leading Cardinals (26–29), Phillies (29–34) and Padres (20–32).
Baseball Reference gives the Brewers just a 29.9% chance of reaching the playoffs. FanGraphs gives them a 25.7% chance. But history, if not the math, is on their side. In recent years, these have been the spots in which Counsell’s teams have responded.
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