Tua Tagovailoa is capable, but he’s also imperfect. Unfortunately for the Miami Dolphins, having such a quarterback in the NFL is the ultimate franchise-altering dilemma when it’s time to decide on a new contract.
Speaking to league sources, opinions on what Tagovailoa’s future with the Miami Dolphins should be are scattershot.
“The best way to look at it is, you prepare for the speed at skill positions and Mike McDaniel, and then Tua,” a longtime NFL defensive coordinator says. “… He doesn’t like to get hit or read coverage. When is he at his best? RPOs and the quick game. Next question to ask yourself is how many quarterbacks would you take before him?”
Despite playing behind an average offensive line, Tagovailoa was protected by McDaniel’s scheme. He only faced pressure on 15.7% of dropbacks, the third-lowest figure of 2023 for qualifying quarterbacks. This is due to his 2.1 seconds in the pocket per dropback, the quickest release time in the sport.
Regardless of the split opinions on the quarterback, the formula worked.
Last year, Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yardage (4,624). He also threw 29 touchdowns against 14 interceptions, leading the Dolphins to their second straight playoff appearance. In 2022, the Alabama product paced the league in yards per attempt (9.2), yards per completion (13.7) and passer rating (105.5), albeit while missing four games due to concussions.
“[The Dolphins] should pay him [between the] fifth- and 10th-ranked quarterbacks,” a veteran front office executive says. “He has some talent and fits the system, but there’s no real upside and the medical is scary. He will only be as good as the players around him.”
Based on current deals, putting Tagovailoa somewhere between the fifth- and 10th-highest paid quarterbacks means a total value of $180–258 million. That’s a range which includes Josh Allen (fifth), Jalen Hurts (sixth), Kyler Murray (seventh), Deshaun Watson (eighth), Jared Goff (ninth) and Kirk Cousins (10th).
Most importantly, the guaranteed money would land between $130–179 million.
Speaking to an NFC general manager, he stated that if he were overseeing the Tagovailoa negotiations, he’d aim to pay him in the same ballpark as Goff.
Earlier this offseason, Goff signed a four-year, $212 million extension with the Detroit Lions, including $170.6 million guaranteed. The total value ranks ninth, with the guaranteed money being sixth.
However, there’s another path Miami could take as well.
“I would definitely stretch it out,” a former NFL general manager says. “I couldn’t pay him the $50 million [per year] at this stage with the information we have. Play this year out, then tag him next year if you have to. Just because he played one full season, that doesn’t alleviate everybody’s doubts about durability. Plus, I felt like at the end of last year his talents grew a wart or two.”
Should Dolphins general manager Chris Grier go this route, Miami is looking at a $23.1 million cap hit for Tagovailoa in 2024, before a tag which will be approximately $40 million in ‘25. The Dolphins would then have the option of another tag (a 20% raise over the first tag’s value), which would mean retaining the ability to either sign Tagovailoa long-term, or trade him away.
At 26 years old, there’s still the question of whether the Dolphins and Tagovailoa are good enough together to make meaningful noise.
In 2023, Miami went 1–6 against playoff teams. In those games, Tagovailoa threw eight touchdown passes and seven interceptions, never once surpassing 300 yards.
“He’s a good player but will never be elite,” another defensive coordinator who has faced Tagovailoa says. “… Try to make him read things. He just throws it to spots a lot of the time. Keep changing the windows on him and he will struggle.”
Clearly, though, he’s good enough to win plenty of games based on the existing roster around him.
Jun 5, 2024; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Tagovailoa looks on during mandatory minicamp at Baptist Health Training Complex. Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Without a crush of injuries last season, Tagovailoa and the Dolphins might have won the AFC East and hosted a playoff game or two. Instead, Miami faltered late, losing to the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills before being blown out by the Kansas City Chiefs in the wild-card round in a game played in sub-zero temperatures.
The big question is whether Tagovailoa is a driver of Miami’s high-octane offense or a product of it. Digging into the numbers, the 2020 first-round choice ranked 15th in intended air yards per pass attempt (7.7) last season, while benefiting from the second-most yards after catch (2,177), trailing only Patrick Mahomes. Tagovailoa also checked in 27th in scrambles (15), meaning when the play breaks down, it’s largely over.
To one of the sources’ aforementioned comments, where does Tagovailoa rank?
While that’s not the ultimate question Grier must ask himself, it’s among them. For the Dolphins, getting to the Super Bowl and finally winning one for the first time since 1973 is the ultimate goal.
In the AFC, it’s impossible to make a good-faith argument that Tagovailoa is in the top-third of the conference’s quarterbacks.
Any general manager would pick Mahomes, Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and C.J. Stroud before him. Then there’s Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence, who all have strong cases to be placed ahead of Tagovailoa. Do that, and Miami’s signal-caller is suddenly in the bottom half of the conference.
As training camp looms, the Dolphins have to make a decision.
Pay Tagovailoa, get long-term cost certainty and continue building around him with top-tier weaponry and a defense designed to pressure opposing quarterbacks.
Or, let Tagovailoa play out his fifth-year option, hold the franchise tag as a strong option and see if the long-term move becomes obvious after these next 17 (and potentially more) games.
For Grier and the Dolphins, it’s a franchise-defining decision.
The 2024 NFL draft’s done. Lots of clean-up work to do. So let’s not waste any more time and get to that …
On Odell Beckham Jr. and the Miami Dolphins, it’d be smart to follow the money. Last year, the 10-year veteran signed a deal in Baltimore at a base value of $15 million with upside to $18 million. This year, his base pay with Miami will be 20% of what he got with the Ravens—just $3 million—with upside to $8.5 million.
Now, to be sure, the fact that Lamar Jackson was in the midst of a drawn-out contract negotiation and wanted Beckham aboard gave the receiver leverage to get a bit of an overpay.
So maybe that’s part of why Beckham’s getting so much less. But that's not the only reason.
One executive from a team that’s been in the receiver market and explored signing Beckham told me last week it’s clear—at least to him—that the former All-Pro, after a decade in the league and with his 32nd birthday coming in November, has lost his burst. An executive from another team who also was in the market for a receiver saw it as being a little more nuanced than that.
“I don’t know if I agree that he’s lost it so much as that he’s just older, and that’s what the market says on older players,” says the AFC exec. “He’s not always healthy, which is part of that. By the end of last year, he looked good, his legs were back. Now, does he need to play himself back into shape? The offseason stuff being in the contract would be important for me. But you’re late on that, and can’t put workout bonuses in now.
“He signed so late in Baltimore, that he had to play himself back into shape. And when he did, his burst came back, and he could still do a lot of the normal OBJ stuff.”
But even then, the numbers weren’t there. He finished with 35 catches for 565 yards and three touchdowns, and had four catches for 34 yards in two playoff games with a league MVP at quarterback. Rookie Zay Flowers was the top guy in the offense after Mark Andrews went down, and Beckham didn’t do a ton to distinguish himself from Nelson Agholor and Rashod Bateman, both of whom the Ravens have back for 2024 (with Bateman on a new deal).
Now, that’s not to say he can’t help Miami. He’s different than Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and his ability to be a physical run-after-catch receiver is still there. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel was in San Francisco when the 49ers flirted with acquiring Beckham, so he’s clearly had plenty of time to think about how to use him. So he went to a good place.
I’d just say it’d be smart, at this point, to temper expectations on him.
The New York Jets followed their board. And their needs, too. Let’s start here—Olu Fashanu was a very clear pick for New York at 10, and then 11 after they flipped spots with the Vikings so Minnesota wouldn’t miss out on Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy. And the story on that one goes back past the big left tackle’s final season at Penn State.
Coming into the season, the Jets viewed Fashanu as at least the equal of, and probably a better prospect than, Cardinals rookie Paris Johnson Jr., drafted sixth last year out of Ohio State. As summer turned to fall, Fashanu’s standing in the eyes of scouts did slip a little, and in particular because of how he played against Johnson’s old Buckeyes teammates in October. But Jets GM Joe Douglas and his staff had a different view of it.
Within that game, with Ohio State carrying two future NFL edge rushers and potential 2025 first-rounders in J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, yes, Fashanu got beat. But he also showed resilience in adjusting. In particular, there was a play early in the game where Tuimoloau beat Fashanu with an inside power move, where the pass rusher knocked the tackle back on his heels. Later in the game, with Penn State backed up to the goal line, Tuimoloau tried the same move, and Fashanu stoned him.
So even in his worst game, he was better than most. And then there were some of the comps, with a key one being how he played against Michigan’s Ravens-style defense, one that throws a lot at an offensive lineman. Compared to how Alabama’s JC Latham and Washington’s Troy Fautanu played against the same defense in the playoffs, Fashanu’s performance stood out and it happened, again, in a game that didn’t go the Nittany Lions’ way.
Putting all of that together, the Jets saw a guy who could be a long-term answer at one of the most important positions on the field. So the plan for now is to work with him at that position behind Tyron Smith rather than move him somewhere else.
All of that made the decision pretty simple for the Jets. The one who’d have complicated it for New York was Washington WR Rome Odunze. When the Bears took Odunze, the pick became academic (Fautanu would’ve been one fallback plan in the unlikely event neither Fashanu or Odunze made it to 10; Georgia’s Brock Bowers would’ve been another). And once Fashanu was aboard, their attention turned to receiver.
Similarly, that call came down to a few guys. The Jets actually liked Texas’s Adonai Mitchell, but got focused on the best run-after-catch guys they could find in range of their second pick at 72. Part of the reasoning was the history of the best of those receivers—Deebo Samuel in 2019, Brandon Aiyuk in '20, Garrett Wilson in '22, and Flowers last year (Kadarius Toney in '21 was the exception, for other reasons)—in each class translating easily to the NFL game.
And that’s where Western Kentucky’s Malachi Corley and Michigan’s Roman Wilson came into focus, with Corley getting the edge because, where both were wired the right way and competed, he was 30 pounds heavier and, accordingly, played with more violence. At any rate, you’ll get to weigh that one out because the Jets could’ve gotten Wilson at 72, and instead gave up the 157th pick (CB Chau Smith-Wade) to land Corley.
For now, though, the Jets are pretty happy with how all of this played out. The reality? It was going to be a lot harder to get a tackle (if it’d been Odunze at 11, the Jets probably would’ve gone with Yale’s Kiran Amegadjie at 72), along with just how much they thought of both of the guys they picked.
For all of the criticism Buffalo Bills GM Brandon Beane took for trading with the Kansas City Chiefs in the first round, his reasoning was logical. And, yes, I understand it—and how the idea of arming the rival Chiefs with a guy who runs like Tyreek Hill (though Texas burner Xavier Worthy isn’t really built like the ex-Kansas City star at all) might give people in Buffalo the shakes.
The optics may not be great. But the reality Beane was working with had three elements to it. One, the Bills actually had a comfort level with all three of the receivers that came off the board between 28 and 33. Two, they had a 68-slot gap in picks early in the draft, after using their third-rounder to get Rasul Douglas from the Packers in October after Tre’Davious White’s injury. Three, in the aftermath of March’s roster reset, they had a lot of holes to fill.
On the first reality, the situation was almost the reverse of last year for the Bills, when Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid stood alone on the Bills’ board, prompting a trade up. That Buffalo had Worthy, South Carolina’s Xavier Legette and Florida State’s Keon Coleman right there with each other gave Beane the flexibility to deal to address the second reality, in order to service the third reality. In deals with the Chiefs and Panthers, the Bills moved the 133rd pick to 95, slipping into that gap between 60 and 128, while moving two other picks up 27 (248 to 221) and 59 (200 to 141) slots to still land Coleman.
Beane, like the rest of the league, knew the Chiefs could take Worthy, and that the Panthers and his old pro director/new Carolina GM Dan Morgan were looking to arm Bryce Young with another weapon. So that he was left with one of the three didn’t surprise him, and thathe was down to one of the three is why he resisted moving anymore, as offers for the pick came pouring in the day before the first round.
Buffalo ended up with a receiver whose biggest question was his timed speed, but who had the GPS tracking data of someone running in the 4.5s, and who was shifty enough, at 6’3”, to return punts as a collegian. Plus, combining that agility and ability to drop his weight as a bigger guy with a 38-inch vertical, the Bills thought, because he’s just 20 years old, he’d have the ceiling to get more explosive as a player (Legette, by comparison, is already 23).
One other interesting piece on Coleman was that he had the fastest gauntlet time, hitting 20.36 MPH, of any receiver at the combine, which translates to play speed.
All of which, again, isn’t to say that the Bills didn’t like Worthy or Legette. They did. But with those three in a cluster, getting one of them, while landing a third pick in the top 100 so they could come away with two players (Utah S Cole Bishop/Duke DT DeWayne Carter) on Day 2 rather than just one while improving their Day 3 standing simply made the most sense at the time.
Now, we’ll get to see if it looks that way once these guys get on the field.
There are two ways to look at Travis Kelce’s new contract in Kansas City. One would be that it is, indeed, a lot to pay for a tight end entering his 12th NFL season and turning 35 in October. The other would be that Kelce is one of the three bedrocks of the Chiefs dynasty, there’s value throughout your organization in rewarding that, and what a great tight end makes falls well short of what receivers, left tackles, defensive ends and corners make anyway.
Here's what you need to know on the deal …
• It’s a two-year, $34.25 million deal. It’s not an extension. Kelce had two years and $30.25 million left on his existing deal, without any guarantees. His pay for 2024, as part of the reworked contract, ticked up from $13 million to $17 million, and the Chiefs guaranteed all that money for him at signing.
• The second year remains at $17.25 million, and it’s not guaranteed yet. However, the Chiefs broke that money up, and put $11.5 million in a roster bonus that’ll be due on the third day of the 2025 league year. Which means, by mid-March, most of Kelce’s money for '25 will be locked in, creating an early decision point for the team to keep him aboard (not that it was looming as a big question).
• There are no void years on the back end to spread out the cap hit. The Chiefs, as a loose rule, try not to use that mechanism. They do restructure deals to create space (see: Mahomes, Patrick), but they’re usually pushing money into existing years on the contracts.
And, again, while $17.125 million per year is the most a tight end has ever gotten, it’s not crazy in the context of what receivers pull down. That’s what Jerry Jeudy will make with the Cleveland Browns after four mostly disappointing years with Denver. It’s less than what Christian Kirk is making in Jacksonville or Diontae Johnson made before he was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers. So even if Kelce slips a little, and he did before rallying in the playoffs last year, chances are slim that this will look like a bad deal for the Chiefs.
So everyone wins on that one.
When I went back over the deal that A.J. Brown got from the Philadelphia Eagles, one thing that stood out to me was the amount of money the team has tied up in void years. Brown’s cap charges for the six years on his contract are as follows (2024 to '29)—$5.15 million, $10.91 million, $16.78 million, $20.71 million, $27.62 million, and $29.31 million. Add it together, and you get to $110.48 million, which is $53.52 million short of the $164 million that Brown is due between now and the end of '28.
The rest of those cap dollars went to void years, all $53.52 million. And void years have become an increasingly commonly used mechanism to simply spread cap hits out over a longer period of time, allowing for less pain now (and more of it later) as a team rewards its best players.
Looking at that outsized figure made me wonder how much of this the Eagles have done. I knew they’d done at least some of it. Turns out, every big Philly deal has void years: Jalen Hurts ($97.55 million), DeVonta Smith ($35.78 million), Jordan Mailata ($35.6 million), Landon Dickerson ($35.09 million), Darius Slay ($24.94 million), Dallas Goedert ($23.83 million), Lane Johnson ($22.48 million), James Bradberry ($21.39 million), Josh Sweat ($16.39 million), Chauncey Gardner-Johnson ($13.76 million), Brandon Graham ($10.27 million), Jake Elliott ($8.61 million) and, of course, Brown.
By my math, those 13 contracts have more than $399 million in cap dollars moved into years that void at the end of those deals—and there’s more of that on shorter-term deals such as those the Eagles gave to Devin White and Zack Baun.
That’s a staggering figure, and it explains why Philly seems to have so much flexibility each year.
So, in practical terms, what does it mean?
First and foremost, and similar to New Orleans, it shows a very real commitment from ownership to winning, because all of that money being accounted for three and four and five years from now is matched with cash going out the door during the actual life of the deal. Indeed, last year, against a $224.8 million cap, the Eagles spent $257.2 million in cash, third league-wide behind only the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens. This year, Philly is one of two teams set to spend more than $300 million in cash (Cleveland is the other one).
All told, Philly could approach $600 million in player spending over a two-year span through which the cap is at $480.6 million. Again, it’s a tribute to Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie, because a lot of owners would not be willing to do that.
Second, that money doesn’t disappear against the cap. And this is where things get interesting. Because the figures have to be accounted for, the Eagles will walk a tightrope financially in offloading players at the right time (remember, the above numbers assume you see every deal through, and savings can be had if you cut ties early), spending on the right guys and drafting well to supplement years when more dead money is taken on.
In other words, GM Howie Roseman and the front office are gambling to win now, and that they’ll get a lot of things right going forward. Because a reckoning would come for them if they don’t.
Marvin Harrison Jr. was right, Caleb Williams was right, and more playing moving forward will make their decisions on the lead-up to the draft accordingly. The end result really does make this one academic. Williams went No. 1, so he couldn’t have gone any higher than he did. And you could argue the same for Harrison, since he was the first nonquarterback drafted.
Both made waves during the week of the NFL Scouting Combine for the approach they took. Williams declined to take a physical in Indianapolis on the premise that it made no sense for him to give his full medical information to 31 teams that wouldn’t have a chance to draft him. Harrison declined to work out or test there or at his pro day, with the idea being that rather than wasting time and money on training for Olympic testing, he’d be best simply preparing for rookie year.
In the end, it did no damage to either guy.
The Chicago Bears got Williams’s medicals on the 30 visit, and 31 teams that are now his rivals don’t have information that could be damaging to him or Chicago. The Arizona Cardinals, meanwhile, are ecstatic to get a player who will be ready to hit the ground running at rookie minicamp and OTAs after training with the Ohio State strength staff as he would if he were suiting up to play football for the Buckeyes in the fall.
Williams, for his part, only visited the Bears, while Harrison only visited Chicago and Arizona.
Now, here’s the other thing to remember—few players have the leverage to do what these guys did. In most cases, players need to give teams as much information as they possibly can to get those teams comfortable with the idea of drafting them. That’s a non-issue for very few.
But going forward, if you’re in the super elite class, what will you do? Probably follow the lead of Williams and Harrison, and handle the pre-draft process a la carte, only doing what is in your own personal best interest.
In the end, I’m counting 18 of 32 first-round picks from 2021 as having had their fifth-year options picked up. That’s counting guys who got extensions (DeVonta Smith, Penei Sewell) with the fifth-year option factored in (Rashod Bateman, who did a lower-end extension, doesn’t fit that description). And it’s a high number, for sure.
Last year, using the same logic (which counts Jordan Love as having had his picked up), just 13 of the 32 guys taken in the first round in 2020 qualified.
That number was by far the lowest since the rookie salary scale went into effect with the 2011 draft class. But there was a caveat to it—it was also the first year that the options were fully guaranteed upon being picked up, meaning teams couldn’t simply cut the guy a year later, so long as he was healthy.
What that tells you? The 2021 class, with players such as Trevor Lawrence, Micah Parsons and Ja’Marr Chase as headliners, was a very bumper crop of high-end players. And as such, Smith and Sewell will likely be just the first of a slew of these guys to sign blockbuster extensions before the start of their fourth seasons.
I do have one last take on the Atlanta Falcons’ handling of the quarterback situation. And that’s that I would 100% understand if Kirk Cousins is still stinging a bit from the whole ordeal.
Here’s why—a reason he decided to leave Minnesota is because the Vikings were very up front with the 35-year-old about the possibility that, even in the case he stayed, they’d take a quarterback of the future high in the draft. Tying that together with the team’s willingness to guarantee part, but not all, of a second year on another contract, Cousins figured that, if he stayed, there was a good shot that he’d be on the move in 2025.
I know Cousins appreciated how open the Vikings were about their draft strategy, even if it meant him leaving.
So if you were him, how would you feel when that call came, as his new team was on the clock, to explain how the Falcons were taking his heir apparent, Michael Penix Jr., with the eighth pick? Now, I do understand why Atlanta felt the need to keep it quiet, and why GM Terry Fontenot’s experience in New Orleans in 2017, when the Chiefs knew the Saints coveted Patrick Mahomes and jumped ahead of them to get him, marked the decision not to tell Cousins of their plans.
Still, it had to be a crappy call to take if you were Cousins, considering the basis of the decision you’d made six weeks earlier. It remains to be seen, of course, if that’ll lead to any sort of early fissure in the player-team relationship there. I think they’ll be able to get past it, because head coach Raheem Morris is a phenomenal relationship guy, and Cousins is an adult. But if there are early bumps in the season, this one will be interesting to watch.
I still don’t get the people who are so into the Pittsburgh Steelers trading for a big-name veteran receiver. It’s never been Pittsburgh’s m.o. to do something like that at that particular position. And I can’t imagine trading Johnson is some sort of big needle-mover in this regard, either.
Pittsburgh’s drafted 19 receivers over the last 18 draft cycles. The highest pick spent in the bunch was on Chase Claypool, who went 49th in 2020. Yet, without spending more than that on the position, they’ve wound up with Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Wallace, Martavis Bryant, Juju Smith-Schuster, James Washington, George Pickens, Johnson and Claypool, all of whom wound up producing to varying degrees for the team.
On top of that, the last time the Steelers’ leading receiver wasn’t homegrown was in the year the United States entered World War II—1941 (Don Looney, if you’re scoring at home). And over the years, Pittsburgh has been able to replace guys such as Plaxico Burress, Wallace, Sanders and Brown as they’ve left the organization.
All of this history, of course, bodes well for the 84th pick in this year’s draft, Roman Wilson.
And probably not as well for those waiting on the Steelers to take some big swing on a vet.
I need to give my thanks to everyone, all of you included, for following along through this offseason, now that things have calmed down. That goes for our editors, and our NFL writers, and, again, for all you readers.
Conor Orr and I did this sort of thank you on the MMQB podcast last week, but I’ll repeat it here.
It’s no secret that it’s been a challenging three months at Sports Illustrated. It’d have been easy for people to take their collective foot off the gas, but I’m real proud of our NFL team for refusing to let that happen. And I’m grateful to all of you that kept coming back.
With the 2024 NFL draft in the books, teams can now form their initial depth charts before mandatory minicamps in June and training camps in late July.
Some teams, such as the Chicago Bears, suddenly have fewer holes on the rosters after stellar draft classes. It helped that the Bears had an extra first-round pick, which they used on Caleb Williams, courtesy of last year’s trade with the Carolina Panthers.
That trade seems to get worse by the month for the Panthers, but they too have fewer needs on their roster with the selection of wide receiver Xavier Legette (though they still have a long way to go before fielding a playoff-worthy roster).
No matter how pleased each club is feeling about their post-draft and post-free agency roster, there are still improvements to be made. Here are the biggest remaining holes for all 32 teams.
Arizona Cardinals: IDL, LB, CB
Wide receiver is no longer a critical need after the selection of Marvin Harrison Jr. The Cardinals, however, have a long way to go to fill out the defense. The unit did benefit from the team’s second first-round pick, edge rusher Darius Robinson. Coach Jonathan Gannon’s defense will rely on veteran cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting to help in the secondary.
Atlanta Falcons: Edge, CB, LB
The Falcons go into another season without much help for defensive lineman Grady Jarrett. Instead of using the No. 8 pick on an edge rusher, the Falcons chose to draft Michael Penix Jr., who likely won’t play in 2024 because of the arrival of Kirk Cousins. Perhaps this blurb will be wrong in November if second-round pick Ruke Orhorhoro and third-round selection Bralen Trice make immediate impacts.
Baltimore Ravens: WR, OT, Edge
The Ravens addressed their needs at cornerback and offensive guard with the draft selections of Nate Wiggins and Roger Rosengarten in the first and second rounds, respectively. Those were likely the right moves, but again, Lamar Jackson will have a thin receiving corps unless Rashod Bateman finally puts it together to help Zay Flowers. Baltimore is also thin at edge rusher, with Odafe Oweh and Kyle Van Noy as the top options.
Buffalo Bills: Edge, WR, CB
Buffalo hit on some needs in the draft, selecting WR Keon Coleman and S Cole Bishop to shore up immediate weak spots. However, it was surprising to see the Bills not take another receiver. Additionally, Buffalo is thin at pass rusher with only Gregory Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa as reliable pieces. The Bills are also dancing with danger at corner, as the first reserve is Kaiir Elam.
Carolina Panthers: TE, OT, Edge
The Panthers deserve credit for improving the receiving corps with the trade for Diontae Johnson and first-round selection of Xavier Legette. And they might finally have a reliable running back after drafting Jonathon Brooks. But they also might be hurting at tight end with Tommy Tremble and fourth-round pick Ja’Tavion Sanders. As for another glaring need, Carolina has issues at offensive tackle and are banking on a bounce-back season from Ikem Ekwonu, the 2022 No. 6 pick.
Chicago Bears: Edge, IDL, OL
The Bears could be a fun offense to watch after the draft selections of Williams and Rome Odunze. But they’re going to need the offensive line to play better than last year after veteran guard Nate Davis and right tackle Darnell Wright—a 2023 first-round pick—both struggled. Chicago has plenty of talent throughout the defense, but the team could use more depth on the defensive front.
Cincinnati Bengals: CB, Edge, G
Cincinnati used three of its first four draft picks to build in the trenches, but never added a guard. With Alex Cappa entering the final year of his deal and Cordell Volson being inconsistent, that could have been an option on the second or third day. Meanwhile, with Trey Hendrickson demanding a trade, the Bengals are already thin on the edge and could be in a huge bind if Hendrickson plays hardball.
Cleveland Browns: QB, ILB, OLB
The Browns really need a quarterback, but they’re stuck with Deshaun Watson and his contract for two more years. Defensively, the second level is a big concern beyond Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. Jordan Hicks and Devin Bush are in line for serious playing time, and at this juncture, neither are prolific. Losing Sione Takitaki this offseason in free agency may loom large.
Dallas Cowboys: RB, C, IDL
Ezekiel Elliott is once again the Cowboys’ No. 1 running back. Just one problem: It’s 2024. Elliott is no longer in his prime and the Cowboys don’t have much stability behind him on the depth chart. Dallas also has concerns at center, but the team drafted Cooper Beebe in the third round. He’ll likely compete with Brock Hoffman for the starting job. Regardless of who’s snapping the ball to Dak Prescott, they’ll be surrounded by plenty of talent with Zack Martin, Tyler Smith and 2024 first-round pick Tyler Guyton.
Denver Broncos: C, ILB, CB
The Broncos’ list could have been 10 positions deep, but let’s be kind. Denver lost Lloyd Cushenberry in free agency and never replaced him. Denver also saw Josey Jewell head for the Panthers and did little to shore up that spot, with Alex Singleton and Cody Barton in line to start. At corner, it’s Patrick Surtain II and a lot of question marks—specifically if Levi Wallace will hold onto his job for 17 weeks.
Detroit Lions: WR, Edge, LB
It was tough finding three roster holes for the stacked Lions. They might be forced to draft a wide receiver next season if Jameson Williams doesn’t make the leap in 2024 to help recently-paid Amon-Ra St. Brown. Also, star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson needs a long-term running mate. For now, they’re banking on free-agent newcomer Marcus Davenport. After spending the past year writing about the Lions’ needs at cornerback, they drafted Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. to form an intriguing cornerback group.
Green Bay Packers: OL, CB, IDL
The Packers’ offensive line appears incomplete because they haven’t decided what to do with first-round pick Jordan Morgan, who can play tackle and guard. If Morgan plays guard, this unit might be close to complete. But Green Bay is going to need another stellar season for Rasheed Walker, who filled in admirably last season at left tackle. Cornerback Jaire Alexander might again need help, but at least the team made defensive upgrades with free agent addition Xavier McKinney and rookie linebacker Edgerrin Cooper.
Houston Texans: DT, CB, OLB
Not surprisingly, the Texans’ needs are exclusive to the defense. Houston brought in Denico Autry to shore up the interior of its line, but the rest of the defensive tackles are underwhelming, and Autry is 34 years old. On the second level, Houston is thin, relying heavily on Christian Harris and Azeez Al-Shaair. At corner, it’s Derek Stingley Jr. and a ton of hope, with rookie Kamari Lassiter expected to play a big role.
Indianapolis Colts: CB, S, TE
This wasn’t a great year to need a tight end, but the Colts not making any effort to upgrade at the position was a bit surprising. Defensively, Indianapolis has a solid front seven that should be good against the run and the pass. However, the secondary is banking big on corners JuJu Brents and Kenny Moore II, while hoping Dallas Flowers and Nick Cross are ready for increased roles.
Jacksonville Jaguars: CB, S, Edge
The Jaguars treated the cornerback position this offseason as though they have Sauce Gardner. Unfortunately, that’s not the case, and corner is a major concern. Safety isn’t much better, with Andre Cisco and questions galore. At edge, the starters are terrific in Josh Allen and Travon Walker, but Jacksonville could have used a rotational pass rusher. Perhaps it still finds one.
Kansas City Chiefs: RB, DT, CB
After trading L’Jarius Sneed to the Tennessee Titans, the Chiefs created a need at corner, but didn’t address it until the sixth round. They’re banking on Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams, who are both in their third year but have so far been unspectacular. At defensive tackle, Chris Jones is incredible, but depth is a minor question. Finally, who backs up Isiah Pacheco? Maybe Jerick McKinnon comes back later.
Las Vegas Raiders: QB, RB, CB
Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell will compete for the starting job under center, while running back Josh Jacobs left in free agency and was never replaced. Suffice to say, Las Vegas has some problems in the backfield. Defensively, the front seven is rounding into form under coach Antonio Pierce, but the secondary remains a concern with corner being the biggest problem.
Los Angeles Chargers: WR, ILB, CB
Los Angeles is in the middle of overhauling its roster, and should be competitive in Jim Harbaugh’s first year. That said, the Chargers have significant questions at receiver, with rookie Ladd McConkey and 2023 draftee Quentin Johnston headlining the group. On defense, Los Angeles has weak points on all three levels. The biggest questions are whether rookie linebacker Junior Colson can play immediately and if Ja’Sir Taylor can hold up in the slot.
Los Angeles Rams: OT, LB, CB
The Rams had a near perfect draft on the defensive side after using first- and second-round picks on edge rusher Jared Verse and defensive tackle Braden Fiske. If they add a veteran linebacker in the coming months, the Rams could have a sneaky good defense during their first year without Aaron Donald. Los Angeles, however, is taking a chance with Alaric Jackson as the starting left tackle again.
Miami Dolphins: C, DT, S
The Dolphins have real questions on both sides of the ball. At center, Connor Williams remains a free agent after tearing his ACL late last season, and while Aaron Brewer was signed, he’s not on the same level as Williams. Defensively, Christian Wilkins’s departure leaves a huge hole in the middle of the front. On the back end, Miami needs help at safety and corner, with Jordan Poyer being heavily relied upon.
Minnesota Vikings: OL, IDL, CB
The Vikings don’t have much stability on the offensive line after stud left tackle Christian Darrisaw. Perhaps good coaching and elite skill players could mask the lack of talent on the offensive line. But that might not be enough to help the erratic Sam Darnold and rookie J.J. McCarthy. The Vikings have a fearsome duo at edge rusher with Jonathan Greenard and rookie Dallas Turner. As for the interior, they might not have one standout defensive tackle.
New England Patriots: G, S, K
Yes, kicker. Did anybody else watch Chad Ryland kick the ball last year? He was terrible. Ryland hit on just 16-of-25 field goals, including missing half of his 10 attempts between 40–49 yards. Additionally, safety Kyle Dugger is excellent, but Jabrill Peppers is only decent and the depth behind them is questionable. On offense, the offensive line is a concern, with guard particularly thin.
New Orleans Saints: OL, IDL, Edge
The Saints might be overthinking it by not placing first-round pick Taliese Fuaga at offensive tackle. If they move him to guard, that means they’re giving 2022 first rounder Trevor Penning another shot at proving himself at left tackle. They’re also banking on Ryan Ramczyk staying healthy. If Chase Young has a bounce-back season, the Saints could be in good shape on the defensive front. But they need to get younger on the defensive line.
New York Giants: RB, TE, S
The Giants are going to need Devin Singletary to have a career year in his sixth NFL season because they didn’t do much to replace Saquon Barkley. They could soon have a giant hole at tight end if Darren Waller decides to officially retire. New York gained a dynamic weapon after drafting WR Malik Nabers, but this offense still needs plenty of work.
New York Jets: DT, TE, WR
This might seem like an odd list, but hang in there. The Jets are banking heavily on Mike Williams staying healthy … at 30 years old … on the MetLife Stadium turf. If he doesn’t hold up, it’s rookie Malachi Corley and Garrett Wilson. Not bad, but unsettled. Tight end is much worse, with Tyler Conklin and not much else. At defensive tackle, Quinnen Williams is fantastic, but there’s not much around him.
Philadelphia Eagles: LB, S, IDL
GM Howie Roseman got plenty of love for another impressive draft class. But he neglected the linebacker position, perhaps the weakest group for the Eagles last season. Roseman must really like the free-agency addition of linebacker Devin White. Philadelphia is going to need 2022 draft picks Jordan Davis, a defensive tackle, and Nakobe Dean, a linebacker, to step up and assist the defensive front.
Pittsburgh Steelers: CB, WR, QB
The Steelers have George Pickens on the outside, but beyond him? Quez Watkins, Van Jefferson and rookie Roman Wilson will all compete for serious snaps. Opposite receiver, the corner room is unsettled with Joey Porter Jr. and Donte Jackson starting outside, but question marks Darius Rush, Cory Trice Jr. and rookie Ryan Watts are all projected to serve as rotational pieces. And, yes, Pittsburgh has two quarterbacks and none at the same time.
San Francisco 49ers: Edge, IDL, IOL
The 49ers are banking on veterans to replace edge rusher Chase Young and defensive tackle Arik Armstead. Time will tell if the rotation of Leonard Floyd, Drake Jackson and Yetur Gross-Matos is enough to assist Nick Bosa. The 49ers tend to make it work on the offensive line, but they’re lacking talent on the inside.
Seattle Seahawks: IOL, LB, TE
The Seahawks will need Nick Harris to step up at center to protect Geno Smith. They’re also taking a chance with Noah Fant as the full-time starter at tight end—they lost Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly in free agency. Seattle didn’t do much to fill the voids left by the departures of inside linebackers Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OG, CB, Edge
Ben Bredeson has plenty of experience as a former starting guard for the Giants, but they had one of the worst interior offensive lines the past few seasons. Perhaps Bredeson will have better luck in Tampa Bay playing alongside a revamped offensive line, which added center Graham Barton in the draft. The Buccaneers lack experience at cornerback outside of Jamel Dean.
Tennessee Titans: ILB, S, RT
The Titans did a nice job with the roster this offseason, upgrading both sides of the ball. However, Dillon Radunz is a question mark at right tackle alongside Nicholas Petit-Frere. On defense, the inside linebacker combo of Kenneth Murray Jr. and Jack Gibbens doesn’t inspire confidence. Teams will try to exploit them repeatedly, especially in play-action situations.
Washington Commanders: OL, Edge, CB
The Commanders might have waited too long to address their need at left tackle. They had three second-round picks and didn’t use one on an offensive lineman. They now need Brandon Coleman, a third rounder, to be an immediate contributor at left tackle. Washington’s defense could have a much-improved season with the many new arrivals, but the unit could suffer from a lack of depth at edge rusher and in the secondary.
The NFL offseason continues on but with teams gearing up for next season we have odds for who will make the postseason.
One of the most hotly contested divisions in the 2024 season is the NFC East, which features the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.
The Eagles made a splash in free agency by adding running back Saquon Barkley as well as hiring former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Can the Eagles hold off the Cowboys in hopes of getting back on top of the division and make the postseason?
There will be plenty of heated races in the postseason in addition to the NFC East one mentioned above, including a crowded group in the AFC East and AFC North.
Below you will find the odds for each team to make the postseason in 2024.
There are a ton of quality teams heading into the season with the postseason in its sights.
Look at the AFC East, who have three teams projected to make the postseason in terms of implied probability greater than 50%. The Dolphins have an implied probability of 57.38%, the Bills are 62.69% and the Jets are slightly ahead, listed at 62.96%.
Elsewhere, the AFC North has three teams with heavy odds to contend for the postseason, with its longest shot, the Steelers at only +190 (34.48%). The Ravens (72.60%), Bengals (70.15%) and Browns (42.37%) all have more than a puncher's chance to make the postseason.
The NFC East race is for the division, but both are expected to make the postseason in a much weaker conference, will the two be able to hold up? The Eagles and Cowboys each have mandates to win and better hope to at least make the postseason in order to keep the status quo.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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