All eyes in the baseball world will be firmly set on this weekend’s interleague series between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, which could very well be a preview of this season’s World Series.
The Yankees have looked like the best team in the Majors so far, sporting a spotless 45-19 record while leading all teams in a plethora of metrics. Game 1 of the three-game set is on Friday night.
Let’s dive into everything you need to know to bet on tonight’s game.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: The Dodgers’ pitching staff, including their starter for Game 1 Yoshinobu Yamamoto is going to have their hands full this weekend. The Yankees lead the Majors in OPS this season at .776 while also rocking a stunning .825 OPS over the last 30 days. Strong pitching is going to be a must if they want to win Game 1 tonight.
Yankees
Aaron Judge: Aaron Judge has been on an unbelievable roll of late. Over the last 30 days, he has a batting average of .387, an OPS of 1.491, and he’s hit 14 dingers. He’s the key to every game for the Yankees moving forward.
Juan Soto is going through an injury scare right now, but that shouldn’t scare us bettors away from taking the Yankees as home underdogs.
The Yankees have statistically been the best team in baseball this season so I’m surprised they’re this big of underdogs to the Dodgers at home on Friday night. Over the last 30 days, the Yankees have an eye-popping OPS of .825 while the Dodgers have an OPS of just .708, which ranks 14th in the Majors. I’ll take New York at home.
Cody Peteet may be still of an unknown entity for the Yankees, but he’s looked solid in his first two starts, giving up just three earned runs in 11.0 innings. If he can keep that going tonight, New York is going to be a great underdog bet.
Pick: Yankees +120
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Armageddon awaits. Likely for the first time since the 1978 World Series, the New York Yankees will host the Los Angeles Dodgers this weekend with each team claiming first place.
The Yankees have the better offense, the better starting pitching and the better bullpen. The Dodgers have the better defense. Most surprisingly, we all know which team has the better 1-2-3 at the top of the lineup. And it’s not the one with the three Most Valuable Players that even before a box of game balls was cracked open had people scrambling to compare them to the greatest trios ever to top a lineup.
Step aside Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. You have been upstaged by Anthony Volpe, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge.
First, the cold, hard facts:
R
H
HR
RBI
Total Bases
Avg.
SLG
Volpe, Soto, Judge
131
207
44
125
394
.298
Betts, Ohtani, Freeman
119
215
30
105
366
.311
Second, one 100 mph pitch that helps explains why the Yankees’ trio is better: an 0-and-1 cut fastball to Volpe on Sunday from San Francisco Giants closer Camilo Doval, who had held righthanded batters to a .098 average this year. With one on and one out in the ninth, Doval was holding a two-run lead and a 91.7%-win probability. If he dismissed Volpe, Doval could avoid Judge, whom the Giants had retired only four times in 12 tries in his Bay Area homecoming.
Last season Doval could have exploited multiple holes in Volpe’s swing to put him away. Caught up in an analytical-fueled quest to get balls airborne to the pull side, Volpe swung uphill with too much head movement. He could not hit top-rail fastballs (.125), inside fastballs (.195) or breaking pitches (.148).
Doval was about to find this out. He threw a 99.9 mph cutter buried so far inside that it was off the plate. No matter. Volpe 2.0 kept his hands inside the ball and with a short, quick lash carved the pitch into the right-centerfield gap for an RBI triple. He could not do that last year.
With that one swing, another Yankees win was set in motion. Two pitches later, Soto clobbered a high fastball for a go-ahead homer.
A high fastball? Is anybody paying attention? I am astonished how teams keep thinking they can get high fastballs past Soto. This is all you need to know about how to pitch Soto:
Soto by Fastball Height in Zone This Season
Avg.
SLG
HR
Top Third
.459
1.054
7
Middle Third
.447
1.128
8
Bottom Third
.188
.313
0
That’s 15 of his 17 home runs this year resulting from fastballs in the zone belt high or higher. His past 35 home runs off fastballs in the zone have all been middle-up. Soto hasn’t hit a low fastball for a home run in almost a year—since June 14, 2023.
Judge, who is hitting everything, walked, stole second and scored on a Giancarlo Stanton double. In a span of just a dozen pitches, the Yankees scored four times and turned what was about to be a 5–3 loss into a 7–5 win.
Sure, Judge is slugging .658 and Soto has a .417 OBP and Stanton is on pace for 37 homers … all impressive, but … they’ve all been there, done that. All have been better than that in past years. Volpe is the difference maker, slashing .284/.352/.440 a year after going .209/.283/.383. He and Jurickson Profar of the San Diego Padres are the most improved hitters in baseball. Volpe gives the Yankees a leadoff hitter with speed and that kind of OBP for the first time since Derek Jeter in 2009. He creates traffic for Soto and Judge as an elite baserunner (95th percentile).
Volpe’s transformation is extraordinary. Adopting a more traditional, 1980s-type style in the batter’s box, Volpe is embracing groundballs (up from 41% to 52%), hitting the other way (23% to 32%) and putting the ball in play (he has cut his strikeout rate from 28% to 21%)—qualities that are not stressed enough at a time when batting average is the fourth lowest in history (.240).
Try to find another hitter who cut his pull percentage anywhere near what Volpe has done. You won’t. He has cut his pull rate by 21.4% (46.7% to 25.3%). Betts’s 13.8% decline is the next biggest turning away from the pull side.
The Dodgers coming to Yankee Stadium is a clash of titans and the rare renewal of a classic rivalry. The Yankees and Dodgers rank Nos. 1 and 2 in OPS, respectively, and 1 and 3 in home runs, slugging and ERA, respectively.
The Dodgers are 13–24 in the Bronx, including 3–2 in regular season games in 2016 (when the Yankees were in fourth place) and 2013 (when the Dodgers were 29–39). In the postseason, the Yankees own a big edge at home against the Dodgers, 22–10. (The Yankees were a fourth-place team when they met in the 1981 World Series; having qualified for the playoffs in the split season of the strike-marred year by winning the division in the first half.)
The star power is off the charts this weekend. Six of the past 14 MVP Awards have been won by players in this matchup (Ohtani has won two; Judge, Freeman, Betts and Stanton one each). Ohtani is a career .130 hitter at Yankee Stadium, the seventh worst of anyone with 50 plate appearances in the latest version of the yard—but he does have four homers there in just 46 at-bats. Judge has a 1.026 OPS in Yankee Stadium, the highest by any active player in any park with at least 1,500 plate appearances.
Judge has homered in 28% of the games he has played in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees win 79.0% of games when Judge homers in the Bronx (98–26). For some historical perspective, Babe Ruth homered in 27% of his games in the original yard while the Yankees won 77.1% of those games (178–53).
Amid all the MVPs and the monster home run hitters, however, don’t overlook the importance of the 5'9" leadoff hitter for New York looking to make his first All-Star team. Volpe has emerged as an impact player. The Yankees are 27–5 (.844) when Volpe scores a run and 14–14 (.500) when he doesn’t.
During an appearance on the Talkin' Yanks podcast on Tuesday, Yankees manager Aaron Boone, who is no stranger to being ejected from ballgames, weighed in on the incident and revealed what he said to Judge after the game.
"It was surprising. I don't think he should've got ejected," Boone said. "He's walking away, he's not in an aggressive stance or anything, like, come on, man."
Boone said that he rewarded Judge with the game ball after New York's 5–3 win over the Tigers, and joked that he gave him a, "Welcome to the club."
After Judge's ejection, Boone gave him the game ball and a "welcome to the club" pic.twitter.com/nYFmJ6d4hp
Boone was ejected seven times last season, which was tied with Cincinnati Reds skipper David Bell for the most in MLB. Already with two ejections under his belt in 2024, Boone paces the American League, a feat he's stunningly achieved in each season since 2021, a span during which he's been tossed 24 times.
Judge, who had gone 869 games without getting ejected in his career, was the first Yankees captain since Don Mattingly in 1994 to get thrown out of a game.
Judge didn't elaborate when asked what was said between him and Blakney, telling reporters that he preferred to leave it out on the field.
Aaron Judge was handed an early trip to the clubhouse in the New York Yankees' tilt against the Detroit Tigers at Yankee Stadium on Saturday.
With one out in the seventh inning and New York clinging to a 5–3 lead, Judge was called out on strikes by home plate umpire Ryan Blakney. Judge disagreed with the call and said a few words to Blakney as he walked back to the Yankees' dugout. A few seconds later, Blakney threw Judge out of the game.
It was Judge's first career ejection in his 870th MLB game. Per YES Network's Seth Rothman, the moment also marked the first time a Yankees captain was ejected from a game since Don Mattingly on May 13, 1994. Derek Jeter, who was the Yankees' captain from 2003 to '14, was never ejected in his 20-year career.
The Yankees weren't pleased with Blakney's decision. Judge walked back to argue more with Blakney, and he was quickly joined by New York manager Aaron Boone. Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo shouted his opinion from the dugout railing.
As is custom, baseball commentator Jomboy provided fans on social media with some lip reading.
Editor's note: The video below contains profanity.
Trent Grisham replaced Judge in center field to start the top of the eighth inning. The Yankees finished off the 5–3 win to improve to 22–13, good for second place in the AL East.
