Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Gunnar Henderson’s Prime to Go Yard)

June 5, 2024 Jimm Sallivan

With baseball all day, we all want to know who is going to crack one deep.

Lucky for you, I’ve canvassed the board for some advantageous matchups for hitters across Major League Baseball, including MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles.

In addition to Henderson, I’m eyeing two other hitters that are in line ofr home runs, find out who below!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Gunnar Henderson

Henderson is seeking his 20th home run of the season, and I love it to come on Wednesday.

Ranking in the 95th percentile or better in xSLG, average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, per MLBStatcast. Henderson is rightfully inside of +400 to go deep against Jose Berrios, who has allowed hard contact on more than 44% of balls put in play, which is in the 18th percentile.

15 of his 19 homers have come against righties, and Berrios’ looming regression due to hard contact makes Henderson a prime candidate to go deep on Wednesday.

Jeimer Candelario

Candelario is swinging a sweet bat at the moment, hitting .368 over his last 19 at bats with a home run while slugging .579. He draws a favorable matchup against Dakota Hudson of the Rockies at the hitter friendly Coors Field.

Hudson is struggling this season, posting a 5.02 ERA that balloons at home to a 7.43 ERA in five starts while allowing two home runs.

Candelario is slugging .444 against righties, far higher than his .397 mark against lefties while mashing six of his seven homers against righties, I’ll back him in a good spot on Wednesday afternoon in Colorado.

Jake Cronenworth

A lefty batter, Cronenworth is a dangerous hitter against right handed pitching, mashing all of his eight home runs against that side while slugging .528. He is a disciplined hitter who is barreling up nearly nine percent of balls in play, which is in the 63rd percentile.

With the wind blowing out at Angel Stadium at about eight miles per hour, and a soft-tossing Jose Soriano set to start for the Halos, I like Cronenworth to crack his ninth dinger of the year.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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30 Apr 24 Jimm Sallivan

Gunnar Henderson Setting Historic Home Run Pace

Orioles star Gunnar Henderson launched a leadoff home run in the first inning of Baltimore's 2-0 victory over the New York Yankees on Monday night, making history in the process and improving his already hot start. Henderson, who is two months' shy of celebrating his 23rd birthday, is now the youngest player to hit 10 home runs before May 1.

Gunnar Henderson is a problem pic.twitter.com/jSlFkef6By
— Dillard Barnhart (@BarnHasSpoken2) April 29, 2024

That's a very specific stat, of course, but it's a great jumping-off point to look at the way the infielder has leapt out of the gates in what is already his third Major League season, and second in full.

The reigning American League Rookie of the Year is slashing .289/.352/.632 and leads the AL as the only player to break double-digits in the longball department. He's also the leader in runs and total bases. Henderson has stolen six bases, only four off his mark from all of 2023. His WAR already sits at 2.0, highest among AL position players and his slugging percentage is at the top of the charts.

His 10 April round-trippers are the third-most for any Oriole in April, trailing only Brady Anderson (11 in 1996) and Frank Robinson (10 in 1969).

Henderson's contributions have helped Baltimore build up a 18-10 record and positioned them atop the American League East with the New York Yankees. They've also helped ease the pain of Jackson Holliday's rough start and build excitement that this could be a special season for the O's.

2 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Yankees-Orioles Delayed Briefly Because of Watch Blinding Juan Soto

The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles, locked in for a final game of a four-game set on Thursday afternoon to determine the sole leader of the AL East, were delayed briefly for a reason you probably haven't heard before. A wristwatch was causing issues for Juan Soto in the third inning.

Soto complained to the umpire about something out near the batter's eye. There was some confusion both in the stadium and among broadcasters of the game over what the complaint was. The umpire went to the Orioles' dugout to have them make a phone call to the bullpen to communicate with the perpetrator in the outfield.

An official of some sort was sitting in a walkway near the batter's eye in a white shirt, and he briefly moved back a few feet, thinking his shirt was the issue.

"Someone send him an orange shirt!" color commentator Joe Girardi joked on YES Network.

Shortly after, it was clarified that a police officer stationed nearby was the actual issue. His watch face was reflecting the sun toward home plate, making it difficult for Soto to see where the ball was.

We had a brief delay as Juan Soto complained about the badge/watch of a police officer stationed beyond the centerfield wall. That's a new one!
— Bryan Hoch ⚾️ (@BryanHoch) May 2, 2024

The officer moved over a touch, and it ostensibly fixed the problem, as the game continued. Soto proceeded to strike out.

Another entry in the long list of why games have been delayed, which also got "bee colony" added in earlier this week in Arizona.

6 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Time to Buy Low on Pablo Lopez?)

Thursday is a travel day for a handful of teams in the big leagues, but we still have baseball starting in the afternoon.

With about a third of the season finished, it's time to look for some buy-low candidates and I have my eye on Twins' starter Pablo Lopez, who is due for a big uptick in production as the calendar flips to June. The matchup is daunting against the surging Yankees, but are the Twins live for an upset?

I have betting break downs for each game on the Thursday MLB card below!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

The Orioles are the best-hitting team in baseball against left-handed pitching, making this is a tough ask for the Blue Jays, who will start Yusei Kikuchi on Thursday afternoon.

Yes, Kikuch has lowered his walk rate to a career-low of five percent, but he still allows hard contact at a 43% clip, ranking in the 19th percentile, per MLBStatcast, a ripe matchup for the Orioles loaded lineup.

After a rain out on Wednesday, we get a Thursday meeting between these two, and I’m looking to fade Royal starter Brady Singer.

Brady Singer has 2.63 ERA but is due a ton of regression with an xERA of 4.35.

Against a Guardians lineup that can put the ball in play at an elite level, 11th in OPS, I’ll back the home favorite.

Bryan Woo has looked the part in five starts this season, posting a 1.30 ERA as he continues to be stretched out. Woo is striking out fewer batters, down to 18% from 25% as a rookie, but is walking only two percent of hitters while limiting posting an elite blend of fastball and off-speed pitches to avoid blowup innings.

With limited path to base runners, I struggle to see the A’s keeping up on Thursday.

Los Angeles is the second-best hitting team against lefties this season and draws a favorable matchup against Bailey Falter of the Pirates, who has seen his strikeout rate diminish to 15% this season.

Falter won’t be able to get around the vaunted bats of Los Angeles, and somebody is due for a big-hitting day against him with his xERA sitting far higher than his actual ERA (3.22 vs. 4.73).

I’ll take a stab at the Nationals as home underdogs on the premise of a summer drop-off from Reynaldo Lopez, the Braves starter.

Lopez has a 1.73 ERA, but his xERA is far higher at 3.72. He has been crushed by hard contact (42nd percentile) and his offspeed pitches are ineffective (17th percentile in terms of run value), and I believe the Nationals can have success. This is worth a flier on a home underdog.

Pablo Lopez’s numbers don’t indicate that he’s pitching at a high level, but he may be due for a big jump statistically based on his pitching. He has a 4.84 ERA despite posting a career-best walk rate. He has an xERA of 2.99 despite posting a 73rd percentile xBA, and I believe that he will turn it around soon.

I’ll fade the red-hot Yankees with a pitcher that is ripe to outperform expectations.

The Cubs slide in play continues, and this matchup doesn’t set up well for them as the team heads to Cincinnati to face the Reds with emerging arm Hunter Greene on the mound.

Chicago is 29th in OPS over the last 30 days while the Reds check in eighth. Further, Cubs’ starter Javier Assad may be due for a drop in play after a strong start to the year. He has a 2.27 ERA that is supported by a 3.72 xERA.

Sonny Gray has been on a tear this season. He has a 3.00 ERA while striking out a career-best 33.5% of batters. Even when hitters are putting the ball in play, it's soft contact (66th percentile in hard-hit percentage).

At home, the Cardinals should have little issue getting past the Rockies.

Tanner Houck is putting up All-Star numbers for Boston this season, posting a 1.85 ERA, and now faces the worst offense in Major League Baseball in Chicago, with the lowest OPS.

I’m not backing an upset given the lack of talent for the White Sox.

This is a fade of Randy Vasquez of the Padres, who has a 5.41 xERA and is walking nearly 10% of batters. This is problematic against the Diamondbacks, a team that is top 10 in walks this season and eighth in on-base percentage.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

US Sports News

Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Gunnar Henderson’s Prime to Go Yard)

Gunnar Henderson

Jeimer Candelario

Jake Cronenworth

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Jimm Sallivan