Wide Receivers Archives - US Sports News

Zero RB Strategy: Why It’s Now a Viable Fantasy Football Draft Approach

I have been a running back truther for as long as I can remember playing fantasy football. My first-ever draft pick came back in 1998 when I took Terrell Davis. I later traded for then-rookie Fred Taylor. Can you say championship?

Since then, I’ve focused my early-round picks on runners. From Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk, and LaDainian Tomlinson in the past to the likes of Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall in more recent years, getting a few stud runners was always at the forefront of my fantasy roster build.

So, when the “Zero RB Strategy” was introduced by Shawn Siegele back in 2013, I scoffed. This philosophy is based on completely avoiding running backs in the first five rounds. Instead, fantasy fans load up on wide receivers, a tight end, and a quarterback before turning their attention to the running back position. To me, it made zero sense. After all, backs have long been the lifeblood of fantasy football!

Why the hell would I avoid that?

In my opinion, the Zero RB strategy required a lot of luck. You had to hope at least a few of the backs you drafted after the first five rounds panned out, and many times those lottery tickets ended up in the waiver wire garbage. If you didn’t land a breakout or sleeper runner on the wire either, well, your backfield was likely trash. In this scenario, a bad backfield was a fantasy death sentence.

Then, the 2022 season happened.

A few of the running backs we’ve leaned on for years, like Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, and Leonard Fournette (to name a few), saw their totals decline at some level. The top overall pick, Jonathan Taylor, finished as the RB32, making it the third straight year the consensus top pick was a runner who failed to meet expectations. We also saw a further increase in the number of backfield committees emerge around the league.

At the same time, wide receivers thrived.

Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb were among the young wideouts who were rising up. A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith (to name a few) also thrived for fantasy fans. And while the position isn’t completely clear of injuries (Cooper Kupp), it’s far less likely a receiver will suffer a long-term ailment compared to a running back. That’s part of the reason we are seeing so many runners holding out over current contractual issues while No. 2 and 3 wide receivers are getting their bags.

This has been the perfect storm of sorts, and it’s created a huge shift in the importance of wideouts. In the high-stakes world of the NFFC, where some of the best fantasy players play for oodles of dough, eight of the top 12 overall picks are wideouts. What’s more, 17 of the first 36 picks (top three rounds) are receivers. It’s a different world, folks.

When we include these factors, plus the emergence of the top-tier quarterbacks and tight ends as top-50 overall choices, we’re now seeing running backs getting pushed down draft boards. It’s created a scenario where (I can’t believe I’m saying this), the Zero RB Strategy is a more viable approach. In fact, I have even used it in the last two years.

Do I use this all the time? No. I prefer an altered version where I draft three wideouts in the first four rounds. The other two picks are likely running backs. I’ve also used the “Hero RB” philosophy, which has managers grab a running back in Round 1 and then go with wide receivers in each of the next three rounds. It all depends on where you’re drafting and the flow of the draft, but I’ve pushed runners down in my top 200 regardless.

That doesn’t mean I’m avoiding the position altogether, of course. Besides CMC, I’d love to get Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall or Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round this yaer. But when you look at the ADP data, there are more elite runners on the board later in drafts.

Right now, you can draft productive running backs like Kamara, Rhamondre Stevenson, James Conner and D’Andre Swift outside of the top 50. Breakout/sleeper runners, who used to go in the top 50 when managers would reach at the position, are also on the board much later. This season, that list includes the likes of Zamir White, Jonathon Brooks and Zack Moss, who are all available outside the top 80 based on the current ADP data at the NFFC. Heck, you can even get Nick Chubb outside of the top 90. I know he’s coming off a gruesome knee injury, but he’d have been picked much higher in past years.

This strategy isn’t for everyone. Heck, I’ve even said I don’t follow it to a tee. It might be my long love affair with running backs that keeps me from avoiding the position with each of my first five picks. With that said, I am far more likely to have three and maybe four wide receivers on my roster with my first five picks than I would have five years ago.

Don’t be afraid to make that switch to your draft strategies either. Offenses around the NFL have evolved, and fantasy managers should follow. I did. Much like Jedi master Yoda told Luke Skywalker in The Empire Strikes Back, “you must unlearn what you have learned.”

10 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Houston, We Have a Problem: NFL Teams With Multiple Star Fantasy Wideouts Is Rare

The evolution of fantasy football has seen the wide receiver position take on added value in recent seasons. It’s obvious in early average draft position (ADP) data, as seven of the top 10 overall players being picked in 2024 drafts are wideouts. This, of course, has increased the value (and craze) at the position. That does beg the question, however: how much is too much? After all, there’s just one football right? There’s only so many targets a team can spread around, so sometimes true value comes down to simple math.

This is important when we look at NFL teams that have multiple wide receivers who are projected to make a fantasy impact. Heading into 2024, there are several teams with what I would call a talented but crowded receivers’ room that comes with fantasy question marks.

The first team that comes to mind is the Houston Texans, who have Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell all ranked in the top 36. The Chicago Bears are in the same boat, as the team features DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. The Seattle Seahawks also have three solid receivers in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and the Miami Dolphins added Odell Beckham Jr. to incumbents Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

There is no shortage of other teams that have three or more receivers who will compete for targets in training camp and the preseason, too. The Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and New England Patriots all fall into this category.

That’s going to bring a lot of speculation as to who will earn the most targets and ultimately, make the biggest fantasy impact. But looking at the past (as you know I love to do), I found that more often than not, it can be almost impossible for an offense to boast two or more consistently productive wide receivers at the same time and in the same season.

In fact, you’ll be shocked at the data I found over the last 20 years.

In order for a receiver to qualify, he had to average at least 14 PPR points per game (low-WR2 level in 2023) and play in at least eight games in any given season. First, let’s take a look at the offenses that have fielded three receivers who have scored at least 14 points during the same statistical campaign.

Notes: Season-long points-per-game averages and finishes among WRs are listed first. When one or more WRs played in less than a full season, the points-per-game averages in games where all three were active is listed under “ALL.”

2004 Indianapolis Colts
Marvin Harrison: 17.8 (WR5)
Reggie Wayne: 16.9 (WR9)
Brandon Stokley: 14.6 (WR17)

2013 Denver Broncos
Demaryius Thomas 18.2 (WR1) – ALL 19.4
Eric Decker 16.8 (WR9) – ALL 16.7
Wes Welker 16.1 (WR21 – 13 games) – ALL 16

2018 Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp 16.9 (WR51 – 8 games) – ALL 16.1
Robert Woods 16.6 (WR11) – ALL 16.4
Brandin Cooks 15.2 (WR13) – ALL 19.8

2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chris Godwin 15.9 (WR31 - 12 games) – ALL 15.8
Mike Evans 15.5 (WR11) – ALL 17.4
Antonio Brown 14.6 (WR65 - 8 games) – ALL 14.6

2020 Carolina Panthers
Curtis Samuel 14.1 (WR27 - 15 games) – ALL 14.1
DJ Moore 14.1 (WR28 - 15 games) – ALL 14.1
Robbie Anderson 14.0 (WR29) – ALL 13.4

There were just five teams over 20 years of data encompassing 32 NFL teams (or 640 opportunities) where an offense fielded three receivers who averaged at least 14 points. In three of those cases, it took all-time great quarterbacks (Peyton Manning – 2004, 2013 and Tom Brady – 2020) to accomplish this feat. And, in the case of the 2020 Panthers, none of their three wide receivers who scored at least 14 points finished higher than WR27.

So, even with the talent on their rosters, this trend doesn’t bode well for the Texans, Bears, Seahawks (and to a lesser degree, the Dolphins) of boasting three receivers who are regular fantasy starters. Digging a bit deeper, 14 of the 32 teams have failed to produce more than two seasons where its offense has had two wideouts averaging more than 14 points in the same calendar year.

Here’s a look at each team and the number of seasons it’s had at least two wide receivers averaging 14 or more fantasy points (eight games min.).

Six Seasons:
Steelers

Five Seasons:
Bengals, Broncos, Cardinals, Falcons, Packers, Vikings

Four Seasons:
Buccaneers, Lions, Rams

Three Seasons:
Colts, Cowboys, Eagles, Patriots

Two Seasons:
Dolphins, Raiders, Seahawks, Texans

One Season:
49ers, Bears, Chargers, Giants, Jaguars, Jets, Panthers, Saints, Titans

No Seasons:
Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Commanders, Ravens

Some of these results aren’t surprising, as the Steelers had Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson. The Falcons have fielded great likes Julio Jones, Roddy White and Calvin Ridley (maybe Drake London joins the list), and the Bengals have had Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Terrell Owens, A.J. Green, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Broncos have also had five seasons with multiple wideouts at 14 or more points, but that hasn’t happened since 2018.

What’s surprising is the bottom half, where the Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Commanders, and Ravens have never had two receivers averaging 14 or more points. Keep that in the back of your mind when you’re drafting Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Jerry Jeudy, Xavier Worthy, Jahan Dotson and anyone in Baltimore not named Zay Flowers (and he didn’t average 14 points per game last season). Sorry, all of you Rashod Bateman truthers!

The data that I’ve compiled tells a story that in most cases (since 2004), an NFL team can’t support three wideouts who average at least 14 points a game.

Taking that a step further, 44 percent of teams have had one or fewer such wideouts in a single season in the last 20 years. So, in the cases of teams like the Bills, Panthers, Browns, Packers, Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers, and Patriots, all of whom have major depth chart questions among their wideouts, I wouldn’t expect to find more than one receiver on each team that becomes a reliable and productive fantasy starter for the entire season.

30 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Eight Wide Receivers To Beware in 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

Success in fantasy drafts is all about projecting which players are on the verge of a big season, and knowing who might take a step back in the numbers. It’s those players, who have been labeled as “busts” in the past, who can be the most detrimental to a fantasy manager’s chances at winning a title.

That might not be truer at a position than wide receiver.

The reason is simple: wideouts have emerged as the single most important position in all fantasy football. That means missing out on a high-end receiver can be tough to overcome. Case in point … fantasy managers who whiffed on Cooper Kupp last season probably had some major issues at the position, unless they picked up his teammate, Puka Nacua.

Most folks probably weren’t so fortunate, however.

With that in mind, here are eight receivers who will be high draft picks or are big names who could struggle to produce as prominent starters.

1. Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders

I had Adams listed as a player to beware last season, and he went on to post decreased totals in almost every statistical category. He still finished in the top 10 in points among wideouts, but he was wildly inconsistent. Adams scored fewer than 13 points in nine games, including five with single digits.

The Raiders don’t have an attractive quarterback situation with Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew and the team drafted tight end Brock Bowers in the first round. That could affect Adams’ target share, at least to some degree. So, for those thinking Adams could return to elite fantasy status or that he’ll be more consistent, you might want to think again.

2. Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans

Diggs is coming off a disappointing second half of last season, which resulted in him averaging just 16.1 points per game. That was his lowest total with the Bills. Now in Houston, he joins a super-talented core of receivers that includes Nico Collins, who broke out last season, and Tank Dell, who was on his way to busting out before getting hurt. The team also boasts Noah Brown, Dalton Schultz and a new running back in Joe Mixon. Diggs will be hard-pressed to see anywhere near the target share he enjoyed in Buffalo. Unless injuries occur on the roster, Diggs can’t be trusted to retain his previously elite status.

3. Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

I know, listing Kupp as a bust candidate after he was a bust last season is low-hanging fruit. And, honestly, part of me wants to put Nacua in the article. After all, we could be (and likely are) drafting him based on a magical, ceiling season in the stat sheets. But the truth is, Kupp has only played in 13 games in the last two years due to injuries, and he’s entering his age-31 season. That makes him a hard fade as a No. 1 wideout, and he’s even a risk as a No. 2.

4. Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans

Ridley was a top-20 fantasy wideout last year, but he was anything but reliable. He scored fewer than 12 points 10 times including nine where he scored single digits. Now in Tennessee, the veteran will be catching passes from a young quarterback in Will Levis and contending for targets with DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks and Tyler Boyd. The Titans also have two good backs in Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, so Ridley could be hard-pressed to see high target totals consistently. To me, he’s only a No. 3 wideout.

5. Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears

Allen was putting up monster numbers last year, but injuries cost him what might have been a career-best campaign. However, an offseason trade to the Bears makes him a lot less attractive from a fantasy standpoint. Their offense is led by a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams, and it’s loaded with talent that includes DJ Moore, rookie Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett. That’s a lot of mouths to feed, making it unlikely that Allen will see 150-plus targets. If you do draft him, it should be as a No. 3 receiver.

6. Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

Lockett is coming off a down season that saw his reception, yardage, and touchdown totals decrease compared to 2022. What’s more, his 11.9 point-per-game average was his lowest since 2017. Entering his age-31 season (he’ll turn 32 in September), I see Lockett falling behind teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the pecking order. That idea is playing out in drafts, as JSN is going ahead of Lockett based on average draft position. With the statistical arrow pointing downward, he shouldn’t be picked as more than a No. 4 option in drafts.

7. Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers

Watson was considered a breakout player last year, but he went on to miss eight games due to injuries and was held to fewer than 12 points in all but two of the nine games he was active. His absence opened the door for teammates Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks to emerge into viable options for Jordan Love and fantasy managers. I’m not opposed to taking him in the later rounds as a No. 4 wideout, but I’m otherwise out on Watson.

8. Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers

Thielen was one of the best wide receivers in fantasy football in the first half of last season, averaging 20.2 points in his first seven games. The wheels fell off after that, however, as he dropped to 8.9 points in his final 10 contests. Aside from that, Carolina traded for Diontae Johnson and drafted Xavier Legette, so Thielen will struggle to see such a high target share again. Entering his age-34 season, he isn’t worth more than a late-round selection.