MLB Best Bets Today, June 8th (Fade Kyle Bradish and Orioles?)

MLB Best Bets Today, June 8th (Fade Kyle Bradish and Orioles?)

Who wants winners on Saturday?

With 15 Major League Baseball games on the docket Saturday, I'm going across the bigs to find three best bets on the card, including how to bet the Orioles vs. Rays game on Saturday, which features one of the hottest pitchers in baseball in Kyle Bradish.

Can Bradish keep it up, or will he come back down to Earth?

Here's my bet for that game, as well as the Nationals vs. Braves matchup and the Reds vs. Cubs matchup in a division-filled best bets slate on Saturday.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Braves vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

MacKenzie Gore has been outstanding this season, striking out a career best 27.3% of batters with a career low 3.57 ERA. 

The former Padres prized prospect is starting to see perform like it and now draws a Braves team that is struggling without Ronald Acuna Jr, who tore his ACL and is out for the year. Atlanta is hitting only .211 in June. 

Atlanta's lineup is struggling and Charlie Morton may not be able to give enough help on the mound. He has a 3.88 ERA with a 3.94 xERA, but has a walk rate of nearly 11%. There are simply too many free bases given out in what may be a low scoring affiar.

Atlanta keeps getting priced like the team will stop its slide, but I'm going to take advantage and go against it.

Rays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Both starters have missed time this season, with different results, but I’m betting on it going in a different direction on Saturday. 

Kyle Bradish of the Orioles has made six starts and has been pitching the best baseball of his career. He is striking out 32% of batters, way above his career average, while allowing a hard-hit percentage of only 25%, 99th percentile in the big leagues. 

While it’s a fantastic start for a league average pitcher, regression will come for him soon. 

I’ll try here, on the road against a Rays team that has pop in the lineup and a pitcher who has a high ceiling in Taj Bradley. The hard throwing right hander hasn’t had good results this season, his xERA is hovering around 7.00, but i believe he can outperform expectations given the Orioles have the third fewest walks on the year. 

Cubs vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

The Cubs’ skid has continued while the Reds have won six straight, so I’ll side with the hot home team. 

It helps that Chicago is bottom 10 in OPS against left handers this season as the team faces Reds’ starter Andrew Abbott. 

Cincinnati is playing its best ball now, second in the big leagues in OPS over the last 13 games and play in the hitter friendly Great American Ball Park. I don't see the difference between the two teams at the moment being neglible, like this line indicates, and I expect Cincy to win with ease at home for a seventh straight game.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Every MLB Team's World Series Odds Through First Two Months of 2024 Season

Every MLB Team’s World Series Odds Through First Two Months of 2024 Season

We're officially more than two months into the 2024 Major League Baseball season so it's time to take a step back and take a look at the futures markets.

What teams have underperformed? What teams are a surprising contender? Are there any teams we should bet on now or are there a few we should stay away from?

In this article, we're going to take a look at the latest World Series odds for all 32 teams. Let's dive into it. All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Dodgers, despite underperforming by their standards, are still set as the World Series favorites at +260, which is an implied probability of 27.78%. There's no denying the talent this roster has and they're still playing well enough to have a hefty lead on the NL West.

The New York Yankees have been the best team in baseball through the first two months. Their pitching has been sharp and their offense, specifically the play of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, has been unbelievable. If I were to pick one team to win it all at this point of the season, I'd pick the Yankees.

The Phillies have the best record in the National League at 44-19. They have a great chance to yet again go on a deep playoff run.

The injury bug has bitten the Braves, most notably Ronald Acuna Jr., who will miss the rest of the 2024 season. There's still plenty of time for them to rally and there's a reason they're still fourth on the odds list to win it all.

The Orioles are still well behind the Yankees in the AL East, but at 39-22, they'll be back in the playoffs once again.

The Seattle Mariners lead the AL West, but their offense needs to wake up if they want to be true World Series contenders in 2024.

The AL Central was supposed to be the worst division in baseball, but as of writing this article, four of the five teams are at .500 or above, including the Minnesota Twins at 33-29.

The Houston Astros don't look like the same contender they once were. Their metrics are still respectable and their offense has woken up in recent weeks. If there's one team that has got off to a slow start that I could see getting hot in the second half of the season, it's the Astros.

The Cleveland Guardians are eye-popping 40-21 as of writing this article. While that's impressive, I wouldn't be surprised if he saw some regression from this team in the second half of the season.

The Milwaukee Brewers lead the NL Central and have had one of the better offenses through the first two months of the season. They are a team to watch in the National League.

It's been a bad start to the season for the defending World Series champions. Their offense has been middling and their bullpen continues to cost them games. They need to find a way to turn the ship around or they're going to fail to make the playoffs.

The Kansas City Royals might be the single most surprising team in the Majors this season at 37-26. Not only has their record been good, but they have the metrics to back it up. Between strong offensive statistics and more than one Cy Young candidate in their rotation, the Royals could be a Cinderella story in 2024.

The Blue Jays may be the most disappointing team in the Majors. Despite looking like a talented squad on paper, their offense has been without teeth and their bullpen has been abysmal. On top of that, their rotation hasn't been nearly as good as it was last year. Time is running out for Toronto.

I feel sorry for Mets fans. It's been a disaster of a season and they're already 16.5 games back from the Phillies in the NL East.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Chris Sale Primed to Bounce Back)

Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Chris Sale Primed to Bounce Back)

Friday features a jam-packed slate of Major League Baseball action, and there are plenty of ways to bet in the prop market with so many teams playing. 

I’ve narrowed down my picks for Friday’s slate to just three, with two starting pitchers and one red-hot hitter getting the nod. 

The game of the night on Friday is likely between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, and Yankees slugger Aaron Judge may need to have a big game after Juan Soto exited Thursday night’s contest with left forearm discomfort. 

Judge is one of the three players I’m targeting tonight, so let’s dive into the picks for June 7: 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chris Sale to Record a Win (-110)

Atlanta Braves lefty Chris Sale is coming off a rough outing to open June, allowing eight earned runs in four innings against the A’s, but I think he’s due for a bounce-back showing against the Washington Nationals on Friday.

Sale was terrific in May, allowing just two earned runs across five starts (32.0 innings of work), so I’m not reading too much into his clunker to start June.

The Braves are 8-3 in Sale’s 11 starts this season, and he’s earned the decision in every win, posting an 8-1 record. Prior to his last outing, Sale had earned the win in seven consecutive starts.

Rather than laying the price on the Braves moneyline, I like taking Sale to earn the win against a Washington team that struggles against left-handed pitching, ranking 27th in MLB in OPS.

Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Walks (-125)

Judge and Soto have been the best duo in baseball this season, but if Soto misses this game – or extended time – Judge may see less pitches to hit going forward.

As it is, Judge has drawn at least one walk in five straight games, and he’s racked 52 total walks in 64 games so far in 2024. 

Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto doesn’t walk a ton of hitters (just 14 in 12 starts), but I can’t imagine he’ll look to attack Judge every at bat with Soto likely out of the lineup on Friday. 

Judge has been great at drawing walks and getting on base for years, so I’ll gladly take him at this price on Friday. 

Griffin Canning UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Los Angeles Angels starter Griffin Canning has a tough matchup on Friday, as he’s taking on the Houston Astros, who strikeout a league-low 6.83 times per game this season.

Canning has cleared 4.5 strikeouts in just four of his 12 outings in 2024, and he struck out just two Houston batters across five innings in his first outing against the Stros this season. 

Overall, Canning ranks in just the 13th percentile in strikeout percentage this season, so I don’t see him racking up a huge number on this prop against the least strikeout prone offense in the league.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Time to Buy Low on Pablo Lopez?)

Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Time to Buy Low on Pablo Lopez?)

Thursday is a travel day for a handful of teams in the big leagues, but we still have baseball starting in the afternoon.

With about a third of the season finished, it's time to look for some buy-low candidates and I have my eye on Twins' starter Pablo Lopez, who is due for a big uptick in production as the calendar flips to June. The matchup is daunting against the surging Yankees, but are the Twins live for an upset?

I have betting break downs for each game on the Thursday MLB card below!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

The Orioles are the best-hitting team in baseball against left-handed pitching, making this is a tough ask for the Blue Jays, who will start Yusei Kikuchi on Thursday afternoon. 

Yes, Kikuch has lowered his walk rate to a career-low of five percent, but he still allows hard contact at a 43% clip, ranking in the 19th percentile, per MLBStatcast, a ripe matchup for the Orioles loaded lineup. 

After a rain out on Wednesday, we get a Thursday meeting between these two, and I’m looking to fade Royal starter Brady Singer. 

Brady Singer has 2.63 ERA but is due a ton of regression with an xERA of 4.35. 

Against a Guardians lineup that can put the ball in play at an elite level, 11th in OPS, I’ll back the home favorite. 

Bryan Woo has looked the part in five starts this season, posting a 1.30 ERA as he continues to be stretched out. Woo is striking out fewer batters, down to 18% from 25% as a rookie, but is walking only two percent of hitters while limiting posting an elite blend of fastball and off-speed pitches to avoid blowup innings. 

With limited path to base runners, I struggle to see the A’s keeping up on Thursday. 

Los Angeles is the second-best hitting team against lefties this season and draws a favorable matchup against Bailey Falter of the Pirates, who has seen his strikeout rate diminish to 15% this season. 

Falter won’t be able to get around the vaunted bats of Los Angeles, and somebody is due for a big-hitting day against him with his xERA sitting far higher than his actual ERA (3.22 vs. 4.73).

I’ll take a stab at the Nationals as home underdogs on the premise of a summer drop-off from Reynaldo Lopez, the Braves starter. 

Lopez has a 1.73 ERA, but his xERA is far higher at 3.72. He has been crushed by hard contact (42nd percentile) and his offspeed pitches are ineffective (17th percentile in terms of run value), and I believe the Nationals can have success. This is worth a flier on a home underdog. 

Pablo Lopez’s numbers don’t indicate that he’s pitching at a high level, but he may be due for a big jump statistically based on his pitching. He has a 4.84 ERA despite posting a career-best walk rate. He has an xERA of 2.99 despite posting a 73rd percentile xBA, and I believe that he will turn it around soon. 

I’ll fade the red-hot Yankees with a pitcher that is ripe to outperform expectations. 

The Cubs slide in play continues, and this matchup doesn’t set up well for them as the team heads to Cincinnati to face the Reds with emerging arm Hunter Greene on the mound. 

Chicago is 29th in OPS over the last 30 days while the Reds check in eighth. Further, Cubs’ starter Javier Assad may be due for a drop in play after a strong start to the year. He has a 2.27 ERA that is supported by a 3.72 xERA.

Sonny Gray has been on a tear this season. He has a 3.00 ERA while striking out a career-best 33.5% of batters. Even when hitters are putting the ball in play, it's soft contact (66th percentile in hard-hit percentage). 

At home, the Cardinals should have little issue getting past the Rockies. 

Tanner Houck is putting up All-Star numbers for Boston this season, posting a 1.85 ERA, and now faces the worst offense in Major League Baseball in Chicago, with the lowest OPS. 

I’m not backing an upset given the lack of talent for the White Sox. 

This is a fade of Randy Vasquez of the Padres, who has a 5.41 xERA and is walking nearly 10% of batters. This is problematic against the Diamondbacks, a team that is top 10 in walks this season and eighth in on-base percentage. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Washington's CJ Abrams Is Learning to Walk Again

Washington’s CJ Abrams Is Learning to Walk Again

Washington Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams already has six doubles, four triples and seven home runs, but the loudest roar he received from his teammates in the first month of the season came on March 30, when he looked at a fastball just off the outside corner for ball 4—and for his third walk of the day. 

“Whoa!” shouted second baseman Luis García Jr. “Barry Bonds!”

Abrams understood his friends’ surprise: Only 10 qualified hitters walked less often than his 5.2% last year. This season he’s above average at 8.7%, and he’s also reduced his strikeout percentage from 19.2 to 17.3. The underlying numbers suggest he’s still swinging at too many balls, especially over the past week or two, but he’s also making contact with them, and the Nationals will take it: By wins above replacement, at 23 and in his second full season, Abrams has been the ninth most valuable hitter in the sport. 

Did he always know he was this good?

“For sure,” he says. “I just had to play my game.”

Well, actually, he had to change his game a bit. Abrams’s problem has long been that he’s such a talented hitter that he believes he can do damage on any pitch, no matter how close to the strike zone it is. 

“Whenever I’m seeing it and I’m swinging it well, I kind of expand my zone,” he says. “I feel like I’m seeing the ball better, so everything looks good, but maybe it isn’t. I need to get back to getting my pitch.”

This is new vocabulary for a young man who never gave much thought to his swing decisions before he debuted in the majors at 21. Last July, manager Davey Martinez approached his young star, the jewel of the return for his previous young star, outfielder Juan Soto, who’d been traded to the San Diego Padres a year earlier. Abrams was hitting .233 and had walked 11 times against 66 strikeouts in 289 plate appearances. 

“You’re going to lead off,” Martinez said. “But it’s up to you. If you can handle it, great. I think you can, but you’ve gotta make it yours.”

“And obviously he ran with it,” he says now.

Those results didn’t come immediately. Abrams was only slightly better the rest of the year, but he committed himself this winter to controlling the strike zone. He has taken two paths toward that goal, one focusing on his approach and one on his mechanics.

The approach method is fairly simple: The Nationals have instructed their batting practice pitchers to try to get Abrams to chase pitches outside the zone for the first two rounds, then serve up meatballs for the last two, so he can see the difference. 

“You gotta simplify it,” Abrams says. “The game’s already hard.”

And indeed, he spent the winter working on the harder part. His agency, Roc Nation, put him in touch with Tyler Krieger, who played six years in the Cleveland and Atlanta organizations, topping out at Triple A, before retiring in 2022 to open a training facility in Atlanta. Abrams trained at Maven Baseball Lab every day this winter, focusing on getting Abrams into a good position to hit. 

“You want to work on your mechanics, and there’s a time to work on your game plan,” Krieger says. “I’m a firm believer in having a good game plan. I just think that it’s like showing up to a gunfight with a squirt gun. You’ve gotta have good mechanics in order to have success. You can have the best game plan in the world, but if you’re not in the right spot to hit, it’s going to be hard at seven o’clock.” 

So they attacked Abrams’s balance first; he had a tendency to jump onto his front leg, which wasted some of the power he could be generating with his back leg. Then they worked on his bat path. 

“He would flatten and pull the bat more across his body,” Krieger says. “His bat would kind of fall more behind himself and get trapped behind, where then he had to start to rotate really hard and throw the bat more out and around his hands. He wasn’t able to really pull his hands toward the pitcher.” They did one-hand drills, “learning how to let the bat release itself rather than have the barrel go in front of his hands,” Krieger says. “That’s been big for his adjustability, being able to have the barrel come at the last second, not be the thing that leads his swing.”

Essentially Abrams found more time, which he has used to make better choices.

“When you have good mechanics, in my opinion, it allows you to make decisions later, and probably more accurate decisions,” Krieger says. “So [mechanics and approach] go hand in hand.”

Attitude helps, too. Martinez sees a much more comfortable Abrams this year. The kid who once looked unsure of his role recently now napped in the clubhouse 45 minutes before a game while García snapped photos. 

“Gets his uniform on, gets ready, makes a play in the field,” says left fielder Jesse Winker. “Then, first pitch of the game, homers.” 

Abrams just smiles. That was a pretty good game. Almost as good as the game he walked three times.