Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Sabrina Ionescu, Mercury-Wings)
Sunday brings a loaded WNBA slate of Commissioner’s Cup games before Game 2 of the NBA Finals tips off, giving us a chance to watch basketball all day long.
It doesn’t get much better than that, does it?
The Washington Mystics and New York Liberty kick off the action on Sunday after 3 p.m. EST, but that’s not the only game I’m betting on today.
There are two player props that I’m targeting for some veteran players, as well as a moneyline pick in the Dallas Wings-Phoenix Mercury matchup with Brittney Griner and Rebecca Allen back for the Mercury.
Let’s break down each of these picks for a basketball-filled close to the weekend:
Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phoenix Mercury Moneyline (-120) vs. Dallas Wings
The Wings have dropped four games in a row, and they lack the offensive firepower after Arike Ogunbowale to compete with a fully healthy Mercury team in my eyes.
Satou Sabally and Natasha Howard being out has forced several Wings players to step up into bigger roles than they’d usually have.
Even though Ogunbowale is scoring the ball at a high rate, she’s not shooting it efficiently, and neither are the Wings as a whole. They rank eighth in the league in effective field goal percentage, and that’s not the worst part of their advanced numbers in 2024.
Dallas is also 10th in the league in defensive rating, which is a major concern given the weapons (Griner, Diana Taurasi, Kahleah Copper) that the Mercury have on offense.
Now, I don’t want to act like Phoenix has been elite this season. It actually ranks 11th in defensive rating and 10th in net rating in 2024, but we have to remember that two starters were out for the first 10 games of the season.
The first game they came back?
Phoenix promptly beat the best team in the Western Conference right now as a 5.5-point underdog.
The Mercury have some big wins (over Minnesota and Las Vegas) and their defense should improve with Griner protecting the rim. Before Phoenix was running an extremely small four-guard lineup.
I think this is a buy low spot on the Mercury before oddsmakers realize how deadly this team can be at full strength.
Sabrina Ionescu OVER 18.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit
Sabrina Ionescu has been on fire as of late, scoring 22 or more points in four of her last six games, pushing her season-long scoring average to 17.8 points per game.
After a slow shooting start to the season, we’re starting to see what the two-time All-Star is truly capable of, and she’s coming off a huge 24-point game in a win over the Connecticut Sun on Saturday.
With Courtney Vandersloot (personal) likely out of the lineup for the second straight game on Sunday, Ionescu should play pretty heavy minutes against the Washington Mystics, who rank ninth in the league in defensive rating this season.
Plus, Sloot usually initiates a ton of offense, so it’s likely that Ionescu will have the ball in her hands even more than usual in this game. Despite a poor 4-for-12 shooting game against the Mystics earlier this season, Ionescu is one of my favorite targets on Sunday.
Nneka Ogwumike OVER 16.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
For the third time this season, Nneka Ogwumike and the Seattle Storm will match up with the Minnesota Lynx, and Ogwumike has dominated this matchup in 2024.
The veteran forward had 20 points on 10-of-18 shooting in the season opener before dropping 24 points on 8-of-12 shooting in the next matchup. On the season, Ogwumike is averaging 17.7 points per game, clearing 16.5 points in five of her seven appearances.
She’s seen her scoring drop in her last three games (10, 17 and 12 points), but Ogwumike has still attempted double-digit shots in all but one game.
Given her success against Minnesota this season, I’ll buy low on this prop at 16.5 after it was nearing 20.5 earlier in the season.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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