Welcome to the NFL offseason, where receivers get paid lots of money (just ask Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle and Nico Collins), the NFL continues to push for an 18-game season, the league and NFLPA discuss ways to ruin the offseason calendar and teams continue to go through their OTAs and mandatory minicamps.
So we asked our MMQB staff of NFL experts to answer a series of eight questions. Today, they’re going to weigh in on the offseason’s best coaching move.
Let’s get to their answers as we get closer to the NFL taking a break before July training camps.
Matt Verderame: Los Angeles Chargers hiring Jim Harbaugh
Harbaugh isn’t the type to come into a situation, sit back and assess. Instead, he’s going to quickly turn the culture around, something desperately needed in Los Angeles after the Brandon Staley era.
While the Chargers are somewhat low on talent after moving several veteran players including receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, Harbaugh’s influence will be obvious. Los Angeles might not be a contender in 2024, but it won’t give away games as it has in the past, instead forcing opponents to win the game and not simply avoid losing it.
The big question for the Chargers is how long it will take to get a quality roster around Harbaugh and quarterback Justin Herbert. Once that happens, they should compete in the AFC West with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Gilberto Manzano: CarolinaPanthers hiring Dave Canales, retaining Ejiro Evero
Canales stays in the NFC South as coach of the Panthers after having the offensive coordinator job with the Buccaneers. / Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Harbaugh is probably the right answer, but I can make a compelling case for the two-for-one coaching special the Carolina Panthers pulled off in the offseason.
Panthers owner David Tepper finally got something right after he hired Dave Canales as head coach and retained Ejiro Evero as defensive coordinator. Evero could have easily left after the dysfunctional season in Carolina, but Canales and Tepper convinced him to stay after the defensive guru didn’t land a head-coaching opportunity. (He probably will in the near future.) Continuity should help a Panthers’ defense needing plenty of help outside of stud defensive tackle Derrick Brown.
The arrival of Canales should put Bryce Young on the right track after a rocky rookie season, too. He helped Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield reignite their careers during coaching stops with the Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
If the Panthers’ offensive line holds up, Young and new weapons Xavier Legette and Diontae Johnson could do wonders in Canales’s offensive scheme.
Conor Orr: Harbaugh
I agree with Matt. I think Harbaugh was the move of the offseason because it offers the highest degree of potential success with the largest sample size of prior success and it also signified that the Spanos family was finally willing to spend additional funding on the kind of moves that could separate the Chargers from the rest of the pack.
We can also like different hires for different reasons, right? I think the Dan Quinn hire was smart because the Washington Commanders needed a calming presence after finally fumigating the building of all things Dan Snyder. I thought the organization’s anonymous bashing of Ben Johnson when Johnson decided he did not want to pursue the opportunity was reprehensible.
I thought the Mike Macdonald hire was smart, too, because he gives Seattle the best chance out of any of the available coaches to match wits with Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan. Does that mean he will? No. That doesn’t mean it’s not worth a shot.
I thought the Canales hire was also good because it was the best option at the moment for Bryce Young.
Albert Breer: Harbaugh
Morris is getting a second chance at being an NFL head coach. / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
I’m with Matt and Conor, too. This can’t not be Harbaugh. And my reasoning goes beyond the wins and losses, though the fact that he’s got the fifth-best winning percentage of all-time (behind Guy Chamberlin, John Madden, George Allen and Vince Lombardi) doesn’t hurt.
To me, it’s that he’s got this rare thing where his brand of football, the identity of his teams, has traveled everywhere with him. From Stanford to San Francisco to Michigan, his teams featured powerful offensive lines, dominant run games, efficient quarterbacks, tough skill guys, and smart, versatile defenses that are, similar to the offenses, particularly great up front. I’m betting on it happening again, and all of it has a chance to supercharge Justin Herbert as a quarterback.
But, twist my arm, and make me go somewhere else with this one, and I’d take Raheem Morris with the Atlanta Falcons or Brian Callahan with the Tennessee Titans—Morris because coaches I respect most believe his second shot (after 12 seasons to learn from his mistakes) will be spectacular, and Callahan because he’s so perfectly suited for today’s NFL. Also, those two happen to be among the smartest coaches I’ve dealt with over 19 seasons covering the league.
It’s a new era in Tennessee with Mike Vrabel, Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill no longer around, but the organization appears optimistic about Levis being around for the long haul. They probably wouldn’t have splurged as much as they did in free agency had they not believed in the second-year quarterback.
The Titans provided Levis with a new wide receiver in Calvin Ridley, a new left tackle in rookie JC Latham and many other key offensive weapons. Most importantly, the Titans hired coach Brian Callahan, the offensive guru who helped Cincinnati Bengals coach Zac Taylor build a dynamic scheme for Joe Burrow.
These moves clearly show the Titans were impressed with what Levis displayed in nine games after the 2023 second-round pick replaced Tannehill as the starter.
The Titans also aggressively pursued L’Jarius Sneed in free agency to be their shutdown cornerback and help the defense get on the right track this year.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Going all in during free agency
The Titans spent more than $310 million in free agency, second most in the NFL, according to Over the Cap. On offense, Levis will have many new teammates, including center Lloyd Cushenberry III, running back Tony Pollard, Ridley and Tyler Boyd. For the defense, Tennessee traded draft picks, including a 2025 third-rounder, to the Kansas City Chiefs for Sneed, who quickly signed a four-year, $76.4 million extension with the Titan.
That’s a lot of moving parts in Callahan’s first season as a head coach. Bad teams that splurge in free agency for the quick fix often regret many of their big-name signings, but perhaps the Titans will have better success because of their strengths on the offensive and defensive lines. They drafted Latham in the first round and defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat in the second round to pair with veteran Jeffery Simmons. If Levis quickly grasps Callahan’s offense and the rookie head coach gets everyone on the same page, perhaps these moves pay off to get the rebuild headed in the right direction.
Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 4 to 8
The Titans caught a break with an early bye week because they might be underdogs for the first seven games of the season. After matchups against the Chicago Bears (on the road), New York Jets and Green Bay Packers, the Titans travel to face the Miami Dolphins in Week 4. They then get a bye week before returning to face Anthony Richardson and the Indianapolis Colts at home. The gauntlet concludes with back-to-back road games against the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions. Perhaps the Titans can steal a game or two to start the season, and it helps that they face the Colts after a bye week.
Breakout player to watch: RB Tyjae Spears
Spears averaged 4.5 yards per carry last season as a rookie. / Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA
Spears could lose carries with the arrival of Pollard, but judging from how well he played in a limited role as a rookie, it would not be surprising to see Spears as the lead back. In Cincinnati, the Bengals’ rushing attack was at its best with the tandem of Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine, who was the change-of-pace back. Pollard struggled to be the workhorse for the Dallas Cowboys in 2023 and could flourish returning to the role of a third-down back who can contribute in the passing game. Spears didn’t get many carries playing behind Henry, but the 2023 third-round pick learned from one of the best when it comes to running between the tackles.
Best-case scenario: Levis flourishes in new scheme
Levis should benefit from having a stout offensive line featuring Latham, Cushenberry, left guard and 2023 first-round pick Peter Skoronski, and rising right tackle Dillon Radunz. With extra time to throw, Levis could let his reads develop—and he can always lean on his athleticism if he takes too long to react to coverages.
Obviously, the Titans want Callahan to build an offense resembling what he created for Burrow. But the Titans have the personnel to continue being a physical offense, only with more versatility than what they had with Henry doing the bulk of the work. The Titans could become a nightmare for opposing defenses, who will have to deal with physical jump-ball specialists Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins, a strong offensive line and a dynamic rushing duo of Spears and Pollard.
Ridley and Sneed squared off against each other last season and now join the Titans on big free agent deals. / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA
The Titans drew criticism for signing Ridley to a four-year, $92 million contract as heads into his age-30 season. It doesn’t help that he had an up-and-down lone season with the Jacksonville Jaguars and his skill set is similar to Hopkins’s. The trade for Sneed is also risky because he won’t have as much help as he did with the Chiefs. Sneed will need to prove that he’s more than just a cornerback who benefited from Steve Spagnuolo’s defensive scheme.
If Ridley is running the wrong routes and Sneed is getting torched in coverage, it could be a long few years for the Titans to recover from the lucrative contracts they handed them this offseason. But it bodes well that Ridley stepped up for the Jaguars in the final weeks of the regular season and Sneed thrived while defending teams’ top wideouts on a weekly basis.
After helping the Bengals reach consecutive AFC championship games in 2021 and ’22, Callahan now takes over a Titans roster teeming with talent. The big question is whether Levis is more stopgap or savior. In his rookie season, the second-rounder threw for 1,808 yards and eight touchdowns in nine starts. —Matt Verderame
Sleeper fantasy pick: Levis
The Titans brought in a new offensive-minded head coach, and added Pollard, Ridley and Boyd to an offense that already has Hopkins and Spears. Now, the ball is in Levis’s court to make good on his talent and take advantage of what could be a loaded offense. He has sleeper-breakout potential in the fantasy football world. —Michael Fabiano
Best bet: Tony Pollard under 6.5 rushing TDs (-145) at DraftKings
Maybe I am a jaded Cowboys fan, but Pollard has only exceeded this TD prop once in his career—and it wasn’t last season when he had career-high 252 rushing attempts and a career-low yards per attempt (4.0). Throw Spears into the mix and add in that the Titans have loaded up on talented receivers, and the under looks like the better play. —Jennifer Piacenti
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The NFL offseason continues on but with teams gearing up for next season we have odds for who will make the postseason.
One of the most hotly contested divisions in the 2024 season is the NFC East, which features the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.
The Eagles made a splash in free agency by adding running back Saquon Barkley as well as hiring former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Can the Eagles hold off the Cowboys in hopes of getting back on top of the division and make the postseason?
There will be plenty of heated races in the postseason in addition to the NFC East one mentioned above, including a crowded group in the AFC East and AFC North.
Below you will find the odds for each team to make the postseason in 2024.
There are a ton of quality teams heading into the season with the postseason in its sights.
Look at the AFC East, who have three teams projected to make the postseason in terms of implied probability greater than 50%. The Dolphins have an implied probability of 57.38%, the Bills are 62.69% and the Jets are slightly ahead, listed at 62.96%.
Elsewhere, the AFC North has three teams with heavy odds to contend for the postseason, with its longest shot, the Steelers at only +190 (34.48%). The Ravens (72.60%), Bengals (70.15%) and Browns (42.37%) all have more than a puncher's chance to make the postseason.
The NFC East race is for the division, but both are expected to make the postseason in a much weaker conference, will the two be able to hold up? The Eagles and Cowboys each have mandates to win and better hope to at least make the postseason in order to keep the status quo.
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The NFL offseason continues on, but that doesn't have to stop us from keeping an eye on the NFL futures market!
The top of the Super Bowl oddsboard is dictated by the two teams that made it to the big game last season with the San Francisco 49ers slightly favored over the Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are once again viewed as a true contender to win the Super Bowl for a third straight year with the team set to return a majority of its core, but it's the 49ers who have the edge at the top of the oddsboard.
It's worth noting that the Niners are in the far easier conference relative to the AFC, and that's indicated in the odds. After the two aforementioned teams, the AFC has seven of the 12 other teams that have shorter than 25-1 odds.
Moreso, three of the next four teams are in the AFC with the Ravens, Bengals and Bills all viewed as legitimate threats to win the Super Bowl this season.
With training camp still a few months away, it's worth keeping an eye on more movement in the Super Bowl odds ahead of the 2024 season.
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We’re into the month of the schedule being released and spring practices (aka OTAs) starting, so let’s get into it …
• The New England Patriots’ expectation, I believe, is coming closer to reality, with the team honing in on finalizing its football operations structure for 2024.
With the blessing of the league office, New England punted on hiring a “primary football executive” in January. That role had been filled by coach Bill Belichick, was vacated upon his firing and wasn’t conferred over to Belichick’s replacement on the coaching side, Jerod Mayo. The idea from ownership here, as we explained in January, was to do a thorough vetting of the football operation as it stood, before making big-picture decisions post-draft.
Why? Well, because the Krafts felt like, to a large degree, Belichick’s shadow had been cast for years over capable people in the scouting department. From the selection of N’Keal Harry over Deebo Samuel and A.J. Brown in the first round in 2019, to a mass exodus of personnel folks right around that time, it was apparent to ownership that Belichick’s decisions didn’t always jibe with the evaluations of his scouts.
So Robert and Jonathan Kraft resolved to give the guys in-house, whom they liked, a chance to show what they had without that shadow enveloping them. They moved Eliot Wolf—son of Hall of Fame executive Ron Wolf, and with experience as the No. 2 with two different franchises—into the top role, leapfrogging him over director of player personnel Matt Groh with the belief that Wolf was best prepared and suited for a GM-type of job.
As such, Wolf got a three-month audition to show what he had, with Groh and Pat Stewart, who came up in the Patriots’ system, and was a top exec in Carolina under Matt Rhule and Scott Fitterer, as his top lieutenants. And the Krafts did leave a breadcrumb out there for anyone who wanted it, authorizing the hire of Alonzo Highsmith, who came up with Wolf in Green Bay, and went with him to work for John Dorsey in Cleveland.
And now, all signs are pointing toward Wolf landing the job in New England, to the degree where the Patriots have been turned down by prospective candidates with other teams that they’ve sought to interview (such as Buffalo’s Terrance Gray and Cincinnati’s Trey Brown), with those candidates leery that this is a done deal.
The truth being that it probably is.
• The one other detail on that to watch is how they handle the new primary football executive’s title. This will be Kraft’s 33rd season owning the Patriots, and he’s never had a general manager in title. Bobby Grier, Scott Pioli, Nick Caserio, Dave Ziegler and Matt Groh all entered the top scouting role under the title of director of player personnel. Grier and Pioli eventually ascended to vice president of the player personnel.
The last Patriots GM was Patrick Sullivan, the son of then owner Billy Sullivan. He held the title from 1983 to ’91.
Now, there would be a very real and functional reason to give someone like Wolf the title. Doing it would allow for the team to hire an assistant GM, and that title allows you to poach from another team without the other team having to let such a person out of their contract. So theoretically, the Patriots could use the GM interviews to search for an assistant GM, then use that assistant GM title to pull the candidate away from another organization.
If the Patriots were to do something like that, it’d be smart to look toward the Packers’ organization, and maybe someone like director of pro scouting Richmond Williams, to find guys who’d fit under Wolf.
• Great news from Cincinnati, where the Bengals released video of Joe Burrow, back from surgery on his throwing wrist, spinning the ball as he normally would (albeit with a sleeve over his right arm) inside the team’s practice bubble. He also told the team website that the timetable has allowed for him to have a relatively normal offseason, since he wouldn’t be throwing in earnest until OTAs, which is when he usually ramps things up anyway.
My understanding is that, through two days of throwing on-site, his velocity and deep range have been normal, and he’s in great shape, while there is a little rust and the team is monitoring his workload. I’d expect the Bengals to be careful with their franchise quarterback (with rest days, etc.), especially since he somehow still hasn’t had a full and normal offseason as a pro. Burrow lost time to ACL rehab in 2021, appendicitis in ’22 and a calf injury last summer.
Beck will be returning to Georgia for a fourth season.
Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK
• Every year, there’s a lot of noise in May over who the top quarterbacks will be in the following year’s draft. This year is no different. And sometimes, it can be tough to decipher what’s real, and what’s not (remember Spencer Rattler’s “stock” in the summer of 2021).
So I’d just say looking at the names, the guy I’ve heard the most real, genuine, this-guy-could-make it buzz in a class that looks just so-so right now is Georgia's Carson Beck. Scouts visiting Athens in November were alerted to the reality that he was almost certainly returning to school for a fourth season. But at that point, there was a thought that he could be taken in the top half of the first round in 2024. Making the idea of that real for ’25.
Obviously, we’ll be talking plenty about guys such as Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Texas’s Quinn Ewers too.
• The addition of Tyler Boyd to the Titans’ roster is a sharp one for Brian Callahan, who was together with the veteran receiver in Cincinnati. Every new head coach is well-served to have people who know the program, and the coach’s expectations, coming in. And until now, Callahan had only Chidobe Awuzie coming over from the Bengals with him.
That Boyd’s a pro’s pro only adds to the logic of the signing.
• It’s worth mentioning here, given the battle royale that’s ensued between college all-star games over the past few years, that the Senior Bowl remains at the top of the heap. Among the players who at least participated in practices at the various all-star games, the Senior Bowl had 25 of the 26 guys taken in the first two rounds (including all 10 first-rounders), and a 45-5-1 edge over the East/West Shrine Bowl and Hula Bowl, respectively, over the first four rounds.
Also, the one Hula Bowler taken in the first four rounds, Boston College CB and Arizona Cardinals third-rounder Elijah Jones, was a late injury add to the Senior Bowl, meaning he’d been high on their list. So … good job by Jim Nagy and the folks in Mobile on all of that.
• The Panthers added Rashaad Penny to a crowded running back group that already has Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard, which, rightfully, raised some question on the readiness of second-round pick Jonathon Brooks, who tore his ACL in November as a Texas junior.
My understanding is that Brooks will be held out of spring drills, with the expectation that he’s cleared on July 1, and starts training camp on a pitch count. That should give him a chance to play from the start of his rookie year, though he’ll have fewer early opportunities to make an impression on new coach Dave Canales and his staff. (It is worth noting that Penny was with Canales in Seattle for the first five years of his career.)
• Keep an eye on Chiefs fourth-rounder Jared Wiley. Some saw him as a top guy in the tight end group behind Brock Bowers in his class, and he turned some heads at the team’s rookie minicamp (his raw size and hands stood out). Plus, he’ll get to learn from a pretty good one.
• Not for nothing, I think the Vikings are pretty comfortable with Sam Darnold playing quarterback, which gives them flexibility with J.J. McCarthy. I’d also expect that Kevin O’Connell will have a detailed set of markers for McCarthy to hit as he tries to compete to become the starter. So if he does, that’s great news for the team. And if he hits the normal rookie speedbumps, that’s O.K. too, with Darnold in tow.
• Justin Simmons is one current free agent I’d be calling if I were a team.
In the NFL, things change quickly. Just ask the AFC South.
A year ago, the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts each had new quarterbacks and first-time head coaches. While the future was considered bright, the present was thought to be bleak.
Fast-forward one season, and the Texans are defending AFC South champs while anything less than a playoff appearance in Indianapolis would be considered a failure.
Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars were viewed as Super Bowl contenders in 2023, only to fall apart after an 8–3 start to miss the playoffs. Now, will they play as they did early last season before succumbing to injuries, or are they a group about to take a step back?
We took a look at all four AFC South rosters and ranked them, giving a snapshot of what to expect in 2024.
1. Houston Texans
In one year, the Texans went from having a roster nobody thought could win six games, to a team which might contend to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LIX.
Of course, the driving force behind Houston’s sensational turnaround is quarterback C.J. Stroud, who threw for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns to help lead the Texans to a shocking AFC South title, along with a playoff win over the Cleveland Browns.
With Stroud under center, Houston’s offense is one of the league’s scariest. This was only bolstered by the acquisition of All-Pro receiver Stefon Diggs, who joins Nico Collins and second-year speedster Tank Dell in the receiver room.
Defensively, the Texans have Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. rushing off the edges with Denico Autry manning the inside of their front. In the secondary, youth is serving with corner Derek Stingley Jr. and safety Jalen Pitre patrolling the deep end.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville may have been a huge disappointment in 2023, but the roster is still teeming with above-average talent.
For the Jaguars, their rebound effort will be spearheaded by quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who last season struggled with 21 touchdowns against 14 interceptions. Lawrence, entering his third season alongside coach Doug Pederson, has ample weaponry around him including running back Travis Etienne Jr.; tight end Evan Engram; and receivers Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis and incoming first-rounder Brian Thomas Jr.
On the other side, Jacksonville has one of the league’s better fronts, headlined by edge rusher Josh Allen and 2022 No. 1 pick Travon Walker. General manager Trent Baalke also added to the line with free-agent signing Arik Armstead coming over from the San Francisco 49ers.
The big question is in the secondary, where the Jaguars are relying on Tyson Campbell and Andre Cisco to prop up some question marks, including newcomers Darnell Savage Jr. and Ronald Darby.
3. Indianapolis Colts
Much of the Colts' future will hinge on keeping Richardson healthy.
Robert Scheer/IndyStar / USA TODAY
So much of how the Colts work out will be determined by second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson. Richardson, who was Indianapolis’s first-round pick in 2023, only started four games before being shelved with a shoulder injury.
Before getting hurt, Richardson flashed dynamic talent, accounting for seven touchdowns (including four as a runner) despite leaving two of his four games before halftime.
The talent around him isn’t star-studded, but it's considerable. The Colts re-signed wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., who alongside second-year man Josh Downs and rookie Adonai Mitchell form an intriguing trio. The offensive line is also solid, led by center Ryan Kelly and All-Pro Quenton Nelson.
The defense is led by a front including star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner and first-round edge rusher Laiatu Latu, but is there enough punch otherwise? The secondary is also a concern as Kenny Moore II is a terrific slot corner, but the rest of the group has concerns abound.
4. Tennessee Titans
The Titans added talent this offseason, headlined by receiver Calvin Ridley and corner L’Jarius Sneed. There were also other notable offensive additions including center Lloyd Cushenberry, first-round left tackle JC Latham and running back Tony Pollard, but it still isn't enough to get out of the AFC South basement.
Tennessee has major question marks along the offensive line despite adding Latham and 2023 first-rounder Peter Skoronski. The Titans’ right side remains in flux, and Will Levis under center is an unknown, having thrown for eight touchdowns while completing 58.4% of his passes across nine starts last season.
On defense, Jeffery Simmons is an elite defensive tackle but no longer has Denico Autry playing alongside him. The edges are also thin behind Harold Landry III. In the secondary, Sneed gives Tennessee a legitimate top-end corner, but the rest of the unit has either unsettled starters or depth concerns.
Tennessee isn’t terrible, but it’s not a playoff team either.
In 2023, the AFC South was supposed to be a formality.
The Jacksonville Jaguars were going to roll to a division title, likely to be wrapped up by Thanksgiving. And, at 8–3, that appeared to be the case.
Then, the Jaguars won just one of their final six games, missed the playoffs, and the Houston Texans stunned the NFL to win the division title behind rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Indianapolis Colts finished 9–8, losing on the final weekend of the season to the Texans with a chance to win the division.
This season, Houston is universally considered the division favorites, while Indianapolis and Jacksonville are right on its heels. As for the Tennessee Titans, questions abound based on an active offseason and the unknown of second-year quarterback Will Levis.
Let’s look at how each team fared over the past few months.
Houston Texans
Offseason grade: B
Key additions: Edge Danielle Hunter, WR Stefon Diggs, OT Blake Fisher, RB Joe Mixon, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, DT Denico Autry
Analysis: The Texans added plenty of firepower, while also bringing back an important piece on offense. Tight end Dalton Schultz was re-signed to a three-year deal, while Houston general manager Nick Caserio added Mixon via trade before a curious extension. Additionally, Houston took Fisher in the second round, likely signaling Tytus Howard making a permanent move to guard.
Defensively, the Texans brought in Autry to man the interior while Hunter will provide pass rush. However, the losses of linebacker Cashman, Collins and Greenard are significant.
Indianapolis Colts
Offseason grade: B
Key additions: QB Joe Flacco, Edge Laiatu Latu
Key subtractions: RB Zach Moss, QB Gardner Minshew II
Analysis: The Colts had plenty of money at their disposal for free agency, and largely used it to keep their own talent.
Indianapolis re-signed linebacker Zaire Franklin, receiver Michael Pittman Jr. and slot corner Kenny Moore II, making sure more roster holes weren’t created. In the draft, GM Chris Ballard addressed the pass rush in the first round, selecting UCLA’s Laiatu Latu before upgrading the offense with receiver Adonai Mitchell in the second round.
The big question is whether the Colts did enough to fix the secondary. While bringing Moore back was instrumental, Indianapolis failed to trade for L’Jarius Sneed, leaving it with a significant hole on the perimeter. Safety is also a concern, as much is being asked of third-year man Nick Cross.
If the secondary holds up and Mitchell becomes an immediate contributor alongside Pittman and Josh Downs, the Colts could compete for a playoff spot in the loaded AFC.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Offseason grade: C
Key additions: C Mitch Morse, DB Darnell Savage Jr., CB Ronald Darby, DT Arik Armstead, WR Gabe Davis, WR Brian Thomas Jr., WR Devin Duvernay, QB Mac Jones
Key subtractions: WR Calvin Ridley, K Brandon McManus, CB Darious Williams, S Rayshawn Jenkins, DT Foley Fatukasi
Analysis: Jacksonville had a busy offseason. The Jaguars made some terrific signings led by a two-year deal for veteran center Mitch Morse, who has played for Doug Peterson during their shared time in Kansas City. Jacksonville was also wise to add Armstead on a three-year pact, putting him on a front with edge rusher Travon Walker and Josh Allen.
However, GM Trent Baslke also made some curious choices. He released Williams and receiver Zay Jones, while signing Darby and Davis as their de facto replacements. Are those players upgrades? Slightly, at best.
In the draft, the Jaguars neglected the corner spot once more until the third round, while adding yet another receiver in Thomas Jr. Jacksonville is essentially betting on the offense to set the pace while the defense has to get home quickly. If it doesn’t, the secondary could be a major problem. Again.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans signed Ridley to a four-year deal worth $92 million including $46.9 million in guaranteed money.
Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA
Offseason grade: C-
Key additions: WR Calvin Ridley, CB L’Jarius Sneed, C Lloyd Cushenberry, OT JC Latham, RB Tony Pollard, CB Chidobe Awuzie
Analysis: The Titans added quality talent. They also did it at an outrageous price.
Ridley is a good receiver who had 1,000 yards last year. The problem? Ridley was signed to a four-year deal worth $92 million including $46.9 million in guaranteed money. Ridley is already 29 years old and has only produced at a star level for one year of his career.
Then there’s the Sneed trade. Sneed played at an All-Pro level for the Kansas City Chiefs last season despite not earning the accolades. However, Sneed was given a four-year, $76.4 million deal with a whopping $55 million guaranteed. That’s a lot of money for a corner learning a new system and dealing with a knee that caused concern throughout last season.
In the draft, GM Ran Carthon did well taking Latham in the first round, but Sweat in the second round was a significant reach. All told, the Titans got better in the immediate, but at what price?
The entire AFC is chasing the Kansas City Chiefs. Last week, some teams closed the gap during the 2024 NFL draft. Others saw it only grow wider.
But which teams did the best? Which added the most potential while also finding immediate starters? And, conversely, who failed to find enough help, making them vulnerable?
We analyzed and ranked all 16 of the AFC draft classes, going from least-inspiring to most.
16. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee did a nice job picking up OT JC Latham in the first round to bolster its offensive line, but the rest of the draft was underwhelming. The Titans gambled big on DT T’Vondre Sweat despite his off-field concerns, and then selected three linebackers as the rounds clicked off. Not enough upside.
15. Buffalo Bills
The Bills traded back twice in the first round before ultimately selecting WR Keon Coleman with the first pick of the second round. Buffalo then decided to pass on a litany of other talented wideouts, instead loading up on the offensive line with four picks. The Day 2 choices of S Cole Bishop and DT DeWayne Carter were their best.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars
With a big need at cornerback, the Jaguars chose to select Thomas with their first pick.
Scott Clause / USA TODAY NETWORK
Jacksonville had the opportunity to draft any corner in the draft, but traded back to hoard picks. Fair enough. However, the Jaguars then took WR Brian Thomas Jr. instead of addressing a major need. Afterwards, Jacksonville took a kicker and a reserve running back, passing on more high-upside talent. Not awful, but not great.
13. Cleveland Browns
The Browns were once again without their first-round pick as a result of the disastrous Deshaun Watson deal, which gets hilariously worse by the year. Cleveland’s first pick came Friday, when it took a high-upside defensive end in Michael Hall Jr. despite his lack of statistics at Ohio State. Down the board, the Browns finished the draft with three defensive players, hoping to find depth.
12. Denver Broncos
If Bo Nix turns out to be a quality quarterback, my team grade is going to look silly. If he’s not, the Broncos are going to be spinning their wheels for the next few years. The Broncos were also without a second-round pick before taking edge rusher Jonah Elliss and receiver Troy Franklin in the middle rounds. Not a bad haul, but everything hinges on the 24-year-old quarterback.
11. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins decided to go for an edge rusher in the first round, selecting Penn State’s Chop Robinson to bolster depth after injuries to Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips. In the second round, general manager Chris Grier took Miami’s future left tackle in Patrick Paul, a three-year starter at Houston. On Day 3, the Dolphins took another running back in Jaylen Wright. An intriguing class.
10. Houston Texans
The Texans didn’t have a first-round pick after trading back with the Minnesota Vikings, but they still had a nice haul. Houston got a pair of defensive backs on Day 2 with CB Kamari Lassiter and S Calen Bullock, before getting great value in Ohio State TE Cade Stover. Ultimately, Houston added a few potential starters plus depth.
9. Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati loaded up in the trenches, while also taking a pair of boom-or-bust SEC prospects. The Bengals used three of their first four picks on offensive and defensive linemen, including Georgia’s Amarius Mims in the first round. Mims is incredibly talented, but only started eight games for the Bulldogs. In the third round, Cincinnati gambled on WR Jermaine Burton, who has great film but character-driven red flags.
8. New York Jets
Protecting Aaron Rodgers was the top priority for the Jets, who picked Fashanu in the first round.
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The Jets started strong by taking OT Olu Fashanu to lock down the left side for years to come. However, after not having a pick in the second round due to the Aaron Rodgers trade, New York took a pair of running backs. The Jets also took WR Malachi Corley, a 215-pounder who can create yards after the catch. It was an offensively driven class with upside.
7. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs hit on their two biggest needs in the first two rounds, trading up for WR Xavier Worthy and OT Kingsley Suamataia. On Day 3, Kansas City found quality value in S Jaden Hicks and CB Kamal Hadden, upgrading an already strong secondary despite the loss of L’Jarius Sneed in a trade with the Titans.
6. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore made an already strong roster even better, utilizing all three days of the draft. After getting good value at No. 30 with CB Nate Wiggins, the Ravens continued to take ready-made contributors in edge rusher Adisa Isaac, OT Roger Rosengarten and WR Devontez Walker, along with an intriguing talent in CB TJ Tampa.
5. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts understood their assignment going into the draft. They had to make second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson comfortable, and that appears to have been achieved. GM Chris Ballard landed receivers Adonai Mitchell and Anthony Gould along with a pair of mid-round offensive linemen. Indianapolis also added to its pass rush with edge Laiatu Latu, a potential star off the edge.
4. New England Patriots
The Patriots drafted a pair of receivers after selecting Maye with the third pick in the first round.
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New England did exactly what it needed to in the draft. The Patriots resisted the temptation to trade back and took Drake Maye as their next franchise quarterback. Then they spent the rest of the draft surrounding him with an improved offense ranging from receivers Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, to a pair of offensive linemen in Caeden Wallace and Layden Robinson.
3. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders were patient, and that paid off. Instead of trading up into the top 10 for a quarterback, veteran GM Tom Telesco stayed at No. 13 and tabbed TE Brock Bowers. On the second day, Telesco upgraded the offensive front with G Jackson Powers-Johnson and OT Delmar Glaze out of Maryland. The Raiders still need a quarterback, but when they find him, he’ll be in a better spot.
2. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers needed to find talent across the board in this class after losing receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, among others. To that end, Los Angeles nabbed Notre Dame OT Joe Alt at No. 5 before trading up for WR Ladd McConkey in the second round. On Day 3, the choices of CB Cam Hart and WR Brenden Rice represent great value.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Fautanu will likely start at tackle for the Steelers.
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Nobody in either conference had a better draft than GM Omar Khan and the Steelers. Pittsburgh found a litany of offensive linemen who could start soon between OT Troy Fautanu, C Zach Frazier and G Mason McCormick. Then there’s the third-round choices of WR Roman Wilson and LB Payton Wilson, both excellent values. Home run stuff from Pittsburgh.
With the 2024 NFL draft in the books, teams can now form their initial depth charts before mandatory minicamps in June and training camps in late July.
Some teams, such as the Chicago Bears, suddenly have fewer holes on the rosters after stellar draft classes. It helped that the Bears had an extra first-round pick, which they used on Caleb Williams, courtesy of last year’s trade with the Carolina Panthers.
That trade seems to get worse by the month for the Panthers, but they too have fewer needs on their roster with the selection of wide receiver Xavier Legette (though they still have a long way to go before fielding a playoff-worthy roster).
No matter how pleased each club is feeling about their post-draft and post-free agency roster, there are still improvements to be made. Here are the biggest remaining holes for all 32 teams.
Arizona Cardinals: IDL, LB, CB
Wide receiver is no longer a critical need after the selection of Marvin Harrison Jr. The Cardinals, however, have a long way to go to fill out the defense. The unit did benefit from the team’s second first-round pick, edge rusher Darius Robinson. Coach Jonathan Gannon’s defense will rely on veteran cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting to help in the secondary.
Atlanta Falcons: Edge, CB, LB
The Falcons go into another season without much help for defensive lineman Grady Jarrett. Instead of using the No. 8 pick on an edge rusher, the Falcons chose to draft Michael Penix Jr., who likely won’t play in 2024 because of the arrival of Kirk Cousins. Perhaps this blurb will be wrong in November if second-round pick Ruke Orhorhoro and third-round selection Bralen Trice make immediate impacts.
Jackson formed a strong connection with Flowers, who had a team-leading 858 receiving yards in 2023.
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Baltimore Ravens: WR, OT, Edge
The Ravens addressed their needs at cornerback and offensive guard with the draft selections of Nate Wiggins and Roger Rosengarten in the first and second rounds, respectively. Those were likely the right moves, but again, Lamar Jackson will have a thin receiving corps unless Rashod Bateman finally puts it together to help Zay Flowers. Baltimore is also thin at edge rusher, with Odafe Oweh and Kyle Van Noy as the top options.
Buffalo Bills: Edge, WR, CB
Buffalo hit on some needs in the draft, selecting WR Keon Coleman and S Cole Bishop to shore up immediate weak spots. However, it was surprising to see the Bills not take another receiver. Additionally, Buffalo is thin at pass rusher with only Gregory Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa as reliable pieces. The Bills are also dancing with danger at corner, as the first reserve is Kaiir Elam.
Carolina Panthers: TE, OT, Edge
The Panthers deserve credit for improving the receiving corps with the trade for Diontae Johnson and first-round selection of Xavier Legette. And they might finally have a reliable running back after drafting Jonathon Brooks. But they also might be hurting at tight end with Tommy Tremble and fourth-round pick Ja’Tavion Sanders. As for another glaring need, Carolina has issues at offensive tackle and are banking on a bounce-back season from Ikem Ekwonu, the 2022 No. 6 pick.
Chicago Bears: Edge, IDL, OL
The Bears could be a fun offense to watch after the draft selections of Williams and Rome Odunze. But they’re going to need the offensive line to play better than last year after veteran guard Nate Davis and right tackle Darnell Wright—a 2023 first-round pick—both struggled. Chicago has plenty of talent throughout the defense, but the team could use more depth on the defensive front.
Cincinnati Bengals: CB, Edge, G
Cincinnati used three of its first four draft picks to build in the trenches, but never added a guard. With Alex Cappa entering the final year of his deal and Cordell Volson being inconsistent, that could have been an option on the second or third day. Meanwhile, with Trey Hendrickson demanding a trade, the Bengals are already thin on the edge and could be in a huge bind if Hendrickson plays hardball.
Cleveland Browns: QB, ILB, OLB
The Browns really need a quarterback, but they’re stuck with Deshaun Watson and his contract for two more years. Defensively, the second level is a big concern beyond Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. Jordan Hicks and Devin Bush are in line for serious playing time, and at this juncture, neither are prolific. Losing Sione Takitaki this offseason in free agency may loom large.
Dallas Cowboys: RB, C, IDL
Ezekiel Elliott is once again the Cowboys’ No. 1 running back. Just one problem: It’s 2024. Elliott is no longer in his prime and the Cowboys don’t have much stability behind him on the depth chart. Dallas also has concerns at center, but the team drafted Cooper Beebe in the third round. He’ll likely compete with Brock Hoffman for the starting job. Regardless of who’s snapping the ball to Dak Prescott, they’ll be surrounded by plenty of talent with Zack Martin, Tyler Smith and 2024 first-round pick Tyler Guyton.
Denver Broncos: C, ILB, CB
The Broncos’ list could have been 10 positions deep, but let’s be kind. Denver lost Lloyd Cushenberry in free agency and never replaced him. Denver also saw Josey Jewell head for the Panthers and did little to shore up that spot, with Alex Singleton and Cody Barton in line to start. At corner, it’s Patrick Surtain II and a lot of question marks—specifically if Levi Wallace will hold onto his job for 17 weeks.
Hutchinson (No. 97) has posted 21 sacks over his first two seasons.
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Detroit Lions: WR, Edge, LB
It was tough finding three roster holes for the stacked Lions. They might be forced to draft a wide receiver next season if Jameson Williams doesn’t make the leap in 2024 to help recently-paid Amon-Ra St. Brown. Also, star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson needs a long-term running mate. For now, they’re banking on free-agent newcomer Marcus Davenport. After spending the past year writing about the Lions’ needs at cornerback, they drafted Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. to form an intriguing cornerback group.
Green Bay Packers: OL, CB, IDL
The Packers’ offensive line appears incomplete because they haven’t decided what to do with first-round pick Jordan Morgan, who can play tackle and guard. If Morgan plays guard, this unit might be close to complete. But Green Bay is going to need another stellar season for Rasheed Walker, who filled in admirably last season at left tackle. Cornerback Jaire Alexander might again need help, but at least the team made defensive upgrades with free agent addition Xavier McKinney and rookie linebacker Edgerrin Cooper.
Houston Texans: DT, CB, OLB
Not surprisingly, the Texans’ needs are exclusive to the defense. Houston brought in Denico Autry to shore up the interior of its line, but the rest of the defensive tackles are underwhelming, and Autry is 34 years old. On the second level, Houston is thin, relying heavily on Christian Harris and Azeez Al-Shaair. At corner, it’s Derek Stingley Jr. and a ton of hope, with rookie Kamari Lassiter expected to play a big role.
Indianapolis Colts: CB, S, TE
This wasn’t a great year to need a tight end, but the Colts not making any effort to upgrade at the position was a bit surprising. Defensively, Indianapolis has a solid front seven that should be good against the run and the pass. However, the secondary is banking big on corners JuJu Brents and Kenny Moore II, while hoping Dallas Flowers and Nick Cross are ready for increased roles.
Jacksonville Jaguars: CB, S, Edge
The Jaguars treated the cornerback position this offseason as though they have Sauce Gardner. Unfortunately, that’s not the case, and corner is a major concern. Safety isn’t much better, with Andre Cisco and questions galore. At edge, the starters are terrific in Josh Allen and Travon Walker, but Jacksonville could have used a rotational pass rusher. Perhaps it still finds one.
Kansas City Chiefs: RB, DT, CB
After trading L’Jarius Sneed to the Tennessee Titans, the Chiefs created a need at corner, but didn’t address it until the sixth round. They’re banking on Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams, who are both in their third year but have so far been unspectacular. At defensive tackle, Chris Jones is incredible, but depth is a minor question. Finally, who backs up Isiah Pacheco? Maybe Jerick McKinnon comes back later.
Las Vegas Raiders: QB, RB, CB
Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell will compete for the starting job under center, while running back Josh Jacobs left in free agency and was never replaced. Suffice to say, Las Vegas has some problems in the backfield. Defensively, the front seven is rounding into form under coach Antonio Pierce, but the secondary remains a concern with corner being the biggest problem.
Johnston was a first-round pick in 2023 but struggled during his rookie season, tallying just 38 catches for 431 yards.
Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports
Los Angeles Chargers: WR, ILB, CB
Los Angeles is in the middle of overhauling its roster, and should be competitive in Jim Harbaugh’s first year. That said, the Chargers have significant questions at receiver, with rookie Ladd McConkey and 2023 draftee Quentin Johnston headlining the group. On defense, Los Angeles has weak points on all three levels. The biggest questions are whether rookie linebacker Junior Colson can play immediately and if Ja’Sir Taylor can hold up in the slot.
Los Angeles Rams: OT, LB, CB
The Rams had a near perfect draft on the defensive side after using first- and second-round picks on edge rusher Jared Verse and defensive tackle Braden Fiske. If they add a veteran linebacker in the coming months, the Rams could have a sneaky good defense during their first year without Aaron Donald. Los Angeles, however, is taking a chance with Alaric Jackson as the starting left tackle again.
Miami Dolphins: C, DT, S
The Dolphins have real questions on both sides of the ball. At center, Connor Williams remains a free agent after tearing his ACL late last season, and while Aaron Brewer was signed, he’s not on the same level as Williams. Defensively, Christian Wilkins’s departure leaves a huge hole in the middle of the front. On the back end, Miami needs help at safety and corner, with Jordan Poyer being heavily relied upon.
Minnesota Vikings: OL, IDL, CB
The Vikings don’t have much stability on the offensive line after stud left tackle Christian Darrisaw. Perhaps good coaching and elite skill players could mask the lack of talent on the offensive line. But that might not be enough to help the erratic Sam Darnold and rookie J.J. McCarthy. The Vikings have a fearsome duo at edge rusher with Jonathan Greenard and rookie Dallas Turner. As for the interior, they might not have one standout defensive tackle.
New England Patriots: G, S, K
Yes, kicker. Did anybody else watch Chad Ryland kick the ball last year? He was terrible. Ryland hit on just 16-of-25 field goals, including missing half of his 10 attempts between 40–49 yards. Additionally, safety Kyle Dugger is excellent, but Jabrill Peppers is only decent and the depth behind them is questionable. On offense, the offensive line is a concern, with guard particularly thin.
New Orleans Saints: OL, IDL, Edge
The Saints might be overthinking it by not placing first-round pick Taliese Fuaga at offensive tackle. If they move him to guard, that means they’re giving 2022 first rounder Trevor Penning another shot at proving himself at left tackle. They’re also banking on Ryan Ramczyk staying healthy. If Chase Young has a bounce-back season, the Saints could be in good shape on the defensive front. But they need to get younger on the defensive line.
New York Giants: RB, TE, S
The Giants are going to need Devin Singletary to have a career year in his sixth NFL season because they didn’t do much to replace Saquon Barkley. They could soon have a giant hole at tight end if Darren Waller decides to officially retire. New York gained a dynamic weapon after drafting WR Malik Nabers, but this offense still needs plenty of work.
New York Jets: DT, TE, WR
This might seem like an odd list, but hang in there. The Jets are banking heavily on Mike Williams staying healthy … at 30 years old … on the MetLife Stadium turf. If he doesn’t hold up, it’s rookie Malachi Corley and Garrett Wilson. Not bad, but unsettled. Tight end is much worse, with Tyler Conklin and not much else. At defensive tackle, Quinnen Williams is fantastic, but there’s not much around him.
Philadelphia Eagles: LB, S, IDL
GM Howie Roseman got plenty of love for another impressive draft class. But he neglected the linebacker position, perhaps the weakest group for the Eagles last season. Roseman must really like the free-agency addition of linebacker Devin White. Philadelphia is going to need 2022 draft picks Jordan Davis, a defensive tackle, and Nakobe Dean, a linebacker, to step up and assist the defensive front.
Pickens will need to develop chemistry with a new quarterback in 2024.
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Pittsburgh Steelers: CB, WR, QB
The Steelers have George Pickens on the outside, but beyond him? Quez Watkins, Van Jefferson and rookie Roman Wilson will all compete for serious snaps. Opposite receiver, the corner room is unsettled with Joey Porter Jr. and Donte Jackson starting outside, but question marks Darius Rush, Cory Trice Jr. and rookie Ryan Watts are all projected to serve as rotational pieces. And, yes, Pittsburgh has two quarterbacks and none at the same time.
San Francisco 49ers: Edge, IDL, IOL
The 49ers are banking on veterans to replace edge rusher Chase Young and defensive tackle Arik Armstead. Time will tell if the rotation of Leonard Floyd, Drake Jackson and Yetur Gross-Matos is enough to assist Nick Bosa. The 49ers tend to make it work on the offensive line, but they’re lacking talent on the inside.
Seattle Seahawks: IOL, LB, TE
The Seahawks will need Nick Harris to step up at center to protect Geno Smith. They’re also taking a chance with Noah Fant as the full-time starter at tight end—they lost Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly in free agency. Seattle didn’t do much to fill the voids left by the departures of inside linebackers Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OG, CB, Edge
Ben Bredeson has plenty of experience as a former starting guard for the Giants, but they had one of the worst interior offensive lines the past few seasons. Perhaps Bredeson will have better luck in Tampa Bay playing alongside a revamped offensive line, which added center Graham Barton in the draft. The Buccaneers lack experience at cornerback outside of Jamel Dean.
Tennessee Titans: ILB, S, RT
The Titans did a nice job with the roster this offseason, upgrading both sides of the ball. However, Dillon Radunz is a question mark at right tackle alongside Nicholas Petit-Frere. On defense, the inside linebacker combo of Kenneth Murray Jr. and Jack Gibbens doesn’t inspire confidence. Teams will try to exploit them repeatedly, especially in play-action situations.
Washington Commanders: OL, Edge, CB
The Commanders might have waited too long to address their need at left tackle. They had three second-round picks and didn’t use one on an offensive lineman. They now need Brandon Coleman, a third rounder, to be an immediate contributor at left tackle. Washington’s defense could have a much-improved season with the many new arrivals, but the unit could suffer from a lack of depth at edge rusher and in the secondary.
In the 2024 NFL draft, there were 257 players selected.
Some are going to become solid role players. Others will make a Pro Bowl or two. Then there are the select stars who become perennial Pro Bowlers and even see some All-Pro teams. Finally, a couple will be fitted for gold jackets in Canton.
Unfortunately, there’s the opposite reality as well. For every star, there will be 20 players who don’t make an impact. Of those, many will be late-round fliers. But a few will come from the first few rounds, players expected to make a difference only to fade into football oblivion.
So which of the AFC picks surrounded by hype could be cautionary tales in the coming years? It’s time to take a hard look at not only the player but the team and situation, along with potential pitfalls out of their control.
5. Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
Why he’ll be a bust: To be clear, Maye has a very good chance of succeeding. He has all the tools. This is more about the situation around him, and the pressure on Maye because of the past few years under Bill Belichick.
Maye is going to a team with a first-year, defensive-minded head coach in Jerod Mayo. He’s also entering a roster which doesn’t have a proven, star weapon on the outside. It’s a big ask of Maye, although it’s not impossible. Want proof? Look at C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans.
4. Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills
Why he’ll be a bust: Coleman is a massive receiver. At the combine, the Florida State product checked in at 6'3"and 213 pounds. With the Seminoles in 2023, he was the top receiver for a team which almost made the College Football Playoff.
The problems, though, are evident. He struggled to separate against college corners, largely because of his 4.6 speed. And his contested catch rate was 33% last season despite a size advantage on almost every snap. For the Bills, this is a gamble on measurables and Josh Allen. Fair enough, but the bust potential is there.
3. Amarius Mims, OT, Cincinnati Bengals
Mims started only eight games in college.
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Why he’ll be a bust: Mims might be the biggest wild card in this class. On tape, he’s an absolute monster in both the run and pass game, dominating edge defenders with considerable ease. Also, at 6'8"and 340 pounds, the size is unquestionable.
However, Mims started only eight games in college, and injuries were a consistent concern, too. The Bengals are banking on him finally staying healthy and reaching his potential, which is becoming an All-Pro talent. For Cincinnati, which has struggled to field a quality offensive line in front of Joe Burrow, it’s an understandable risk.
2. T’Vondre Sweat, DT, Tennessee Titans
Why he’ll be a bust: Sweat is powerful as a defensive tackle who can get up the field and destroy blockers at times. The problem? He wasn’t always that guy. At Texas, Sweat played in 51 games and totaled just 17.5 tackles for loss and five sacks.
Additionally, there are questions about Sweat away from the field. In early April, he was arrested on suspicion of DWI. Tennessee took a chance on him anyway as a second-round pick despite some believing he shouldn’t come off the board until Day 3. It’s a risky move at a position that wasn’t a huge need, considering Tennessee already has Jeffrey Simmons inside.
1. Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
Why he’ll be a bust: Nix has a few things going against him. First, the Broncos are terrible around him. One could argue they have the worst roster in the NFL, including a leaky offensive line and a weapons group that has Courtland Sutton and not much else.
But the problems aren’t only about the supporting cast. Denver is also taking a chance on a kid who struggled mightily at Auburn, leading to his transfer. When playing within a pro-style offense with the Tigers for three seasons, Nix completed less than 60 percent of his attempts. Finally, he’s 24 years old. Has he already hit his ceiling?
