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MLB Best Bets Today, June 8th (Fade Kyle Bradish and Orioles?)

Who wants winners on Saturday?

With 15 Major League Baseball games on the docket Saturday, I'm going across the bigs to find three best bets on the card, including how to bet the Orioles vs. Rays game on Saturday, which features one of the hottest pitchers in baseball in Kyle Bradish.

Can Bradish keep it up, or will he come back down to Earth?

Here's my bet for that game, as well as the Nationals vs. Braves matchup and the Reds vs. Cubs matchup in a division-filled best bets slate on Saturday.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Braves vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

MacKenzie Gore has been outstanding this season, striking out a career best 27.3% of batters with a career low 3.57 ERA.

The former Padres prized prospect is starting to see perform like it and now draws a Braves team that is struggling without Ronald Acuna Jr, who tore his ACL and is out for the year. Atlanta is hitting only .211 in June.

Atlanta's lineup is struggling and Charlie Morton may not be able to give enough help on the mound. He has a 3.88 ERA with a 3.94 xERA, but has a walk rate of nearly 11%. There are simply too many free bases given out in what may be a low scoring affiar.

Atlanta keeps getting priced like the team will stop its slide, but I'm going to take advantage and go against it.

Rays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Both starters have missed time this season, with different results, but I’m betting on it going in a different direction on Saturday.

Kyle Bradish of the Orioles has made six starts and has been pitching the best baseball of his career. He is striking out 32% of batters, way above his career average, while allowing a hard-hit percentage of only 25%, 99th percentile in the big leagues.

While it’s a fantastic start for a league average pitcher, regression will come for him soon.

I’ll try here, on the road against a Rays team that has pop in the lineup and a pitcher who has a high ceiling in Taj Bradley. The hard throwing right hander hasn’t had good results this season, his xERA is hovering around 7.00, but i believe he can outperform expectations given the Orioles have the third fewest walks on the year.

Cubs vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

The Cubs’ skid has continued while the Reds have won six straight, so I’ll side with the hot home team.

It helps that Chicago is bottom 10 in OPS against left handers this season as the team faces Reds’ starter Andrew Abbott.

Cincinnati is playing its best ball now, second in the big leagues in OPS over the last 13 games and play in the hitter friendly Great American Ball Park. I don't see the difference between the two teams at the moment being neglible, like this line indicates, and I expect Cincy to win with ease at home for a seventh straight game.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

8 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Bet Dodgers as Road Underdogs)

Saturday's MLB slate is headlined by the battle between the two favorites to win the World Series, the Dodgers against the Yankees in the Bronx.

The World Series preview in June takes center stage as all of Major League Baseball is in action on Saturday. Lucky for you, we have commentary on how to bet every game!

Keep reading to find out how we view each game on the Saturday slate.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Pick: Mets (+150)

There’s some variance baked into this game with it being played in London as part of MLB’s London Series.

With a short center field fence and the wind projected to be blowing out at London Stadium, this can be a short outing for the likes of Ranger Suarez, who is driving most of the opening odds in this game.

Pick: Twins (-120)

Simeon Woods Richardson continues to thrive for the Twins in his first full season with the club, posting a 3.04 ERA while showcasing excellent control, posting a walk rate of only six percent. The Minnesota starter will match up against Pirates opener Carmen Mlodzinski, who will put a ton of pressure on the Pittsburgh below average bullpen.

With the pitching edge, including a better pen, I’ll take the Twins as short road favorites.

Pick: Nationals (+120)

MacKenzie Gore has been outstanding this season, striking out a career best 27.3% of batters with a career low 3.57 ERA.

The former Padres prized prospect is starting to see perform like it and now draws a Braves team that is struggling without Ronald Acuna Jr, who tore his ACL and is out for the year. Atlanta is hitting only .211 in June.

Pick: Athletics (+135)

The Blue Jays remain a non starter for me as a road favorite, even against the lowly A’s.

Kevin Gausman has been overvalued all season, and Toronto is only 6-6 in his 12 starts. The right hander has an ERA of 4.60 while his xERA is far worse at 5.26, per MLBStatcast. He is striking out only 22% of batters, the lowest rate since 2018, and remains a worthy fade.

Pick: Brewers (-165)

Freddy Peralta has been outstanding this season, striking out nearly a third of the batters he has faced while keeping his walk rate below eight percent, about the big league average.

It’ll be tough sledding for the Tigers lineup that is bottom third in Major League Baseball in OPS while the Brewers are far better at generating run support for its pitching staff, fourth in the same metric.

Pick: Royals (+115)

The Royals rallied to win 10-9 on Friday, and the team remains a great bet at home, 23-10 at Kauffman Stadium this season.

Kansas City will have a stiff test against Luis Castillo, but the Royals ability to generate power is notable considering Castillo has allowed a barrel percentage in the 28th percentile this season, per MLBStatcast, and allows a high fly ball rate of over 60%.

Pick: Rays (+115)

Both starters have missed time this season, with different results, but I’m betting on it going in a different direction on Saturday.

Kyle Bradish of the Orioles has made six starts and has been pitching the best baseball of his career. He is striking out 32% of batters, way above his career average, while allowing a hard-hit percentage of only 25%, 99th percentile in the big leagues.

While it’s a fantastic start for a league average pitcher, regression will come for him soon.

I’ll try here, on the road against a Rays team that has pop in the lineup and a pitcher who has a high ceiling in Taj Bradley. The hard throwing right hander hasn’t had good results this season, his xERA is hovering around 7.00, but i believe he can outperform expectations given the Orioles have the third fewest walks on the year.

Pick: Reds (-120)

The Cubs’ skid has continued while the Reds have won six straight, so I’ll side with the hot home team.

It also helps that Chicago is bottom 10 in OPS against left handers this season as the team faces Reds’ starter Andrew Abbott.

Pick:Red Sox (-205)

Chicago snapped a 13 game skid on Friday, but I’m not counting on two wins in a row.

Pick: Rockies (+160)

Can Kyle Gibson justify this price tag? The veteran pitcher has a 3.69 ERA that is supported by a 4.99 xERA with a walk rate hovering around 10%.

For what it’s worth, Ryan Feltner pitches better on the road than at the hitter friendly Coors Field, so I can get behind him outperforming expectations.

Pick: Dodgers (+105)

The two best teams in baseball continue its weekend series, and I’ll side with the road underdog given the Yankees’ overall fitness with Juan Soto’s status in doubt for the foreseeable future.

If New York’s lineup isn’t at its best, it’ll be tough to keep up with the Dodgers, who have the highest OPS against left handed pitching this season.

Pick: Guardians (-160)

Cleveland is the far more talented side here and should have little issue snagging a road win.

Ben Lively’s strikeout rate is at a career high of 23% and the Guardians have the clear offensive edge, 11th in OPS against the Marlins, who check in 29th.

Pick: Diamondbacks (+125)

I’ll take Arizona to stay hot in June, winners of five of six, at an underdog price.

Ryne Nelson isn’t a strikeout-focused pitcher, only 14.9%, but he has limited his walks to only six percent, which is impactful against a Padres team that is reliant on drawing walks to get runners on base. Nelson’s ERA is also due to come down from his mark of 5.44, with an xERA of 4.77.

Pick: Astros (-165)

Angels starter Tyler Anderson has been among the best pitchers in baseball, but I expect a tough summer for the veteran left hander.

He has an ERA of 2.37, which is staggering to see given some of his other numbers, including a 16% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate. Meanwhile, his xERA is 4.49, making him ripe for a few blow ups as the season continues.

I’ll count on Saturday against a Houston lineup that is top five in OPS against southpaws.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

7 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Every MLB Team’s World Series Odds Through First Two Months of 2024 Season

We're officially more than two months into the 2024 Major League Baseball season so it's time to take a step back and take a look at the futures markets.

What teams have underperformed? What teams are a surprising contender? Are there any teams we should bet on now or are there a few we should stay away from?

In this article, we're going to take a look at the latest World Series odds for all 32 teams. Let's dive into it. All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Dodgers, despite underperforming by their standards, are still set as the World Series favorites at +260, which is an implied probability of 27.78%. There's no denying the talent this roster has and they're still playing well enough to have a hefty lead on the NL West.

The New York Yankees have been the best team in baseball through the first two months. Their pitching has been sharp and their offense, specifically the play of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, has been unbelievable. If I were to pick one team to win it all at this point of the season, I'd pick the Yankees.

The Phillies have the best record in the National League at 44-19. They have a great chance to yet again go on a deep playoff run.

The injury bug has bitten the Braves, most notably Ronald Acuna Jr., who will miss the rest of the 2024 season. There's still plenty of time for them to rally and there's a reason they're still fourth on the odds list to win it all.

The Orioles are still well behind the Yankees in the AL East, but at 39-22, they'll be back in the playoffs once again.

The Seattle Mariners lead the AL West, but their offense needs to wake up if they want to be true World Series contenders in 2024.

The AL Central was supposed to be the worst division in baseball, but as of writing this article, four of the five teams are at .500 or above, including the Minnesota Twins at 33-29.

The Houston Astros don't look like the same contender they once were. Their metrics are still respectable and their offense has woken up in recent weeks. If there's one team that has got off to a slow start that I could see getting hot in the second half of the season, it's the Astros.

The Cleveland Guardians are eye-popping 40-21 as of writing this article. While that's impressive, I wouldn't be surprised if he saw some regression from this team in the second half of the season.

The Milwaukee Brewers lead the NL Central and have had one of the better offenses through the first two months of the season. They are a team to watch in the National League.

It's been a bad start to the season for the defending World Series champions. Their offense has been middling and their bullpen continues to cost them games. They need to find a way to turn the ship around or they're going to fail to make the playoffs.

The Kansas City Royals might be the single most surprising team in the Majors this season at 37-26. Not only has their record been good, but they have the metrics to back it up. Between strong offensive statistics and more than one Cy Young candidate in their rotation, the Royals could be a Cinderella story in 2024.

The Blue Jays may be the most disappointing team in the Majors. Despite looking like a talented squad on paper, their offense has been without teeth and their bullpen has been abysmal. On top of that, their rotation hasn't been nearly as good as it was last year. Time is running out for Toronto.

I feel sorry for Mets fans. It's been a disaster of a season and they're already 16.5 games back from the Phillies in the NL East.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

7 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Orioles vs. Rays Prediction, Odds, Pick and Probable Pitchers for Friday, June 7

The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays start a key weekend series tonight.

The O's are currently sitting in a wild card spot in the American league and are 4.5 games behind the Yankees, while the 31-31 Rays need to get hot if they want to get back into the playoffs picture.

In this article, I'm going to break down everything you need to know to bet on tonight's AL East showdown.

All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line:

Moneyline:

Total:

Baltimore Orioles

Gunnar Henderson: Gunnar Henderson has been the heart and ssoul of the Orioles this season and he's been fantastic over the past month. He's second in OPS over that time span at 1.038 while hitting nine home runs.

Tampa Bay Rays

Aaron Civale: If the Rays want any chance of beating the Orioles, they need to have a strong outing from their starting pitcher, Aaron Civale, who has a 5.37 ERA on the season. He allowed six hits but just one earned run in 5.1 innings against the Orioles in his last start.

I firmly believe the Rays are one of the most overvalued teams in the betting market this season. Based on their metrics, they should feel lucky they're sitting at .500 on the season. Over the last 30 days, they're 28th in the Majors in OPS as their offense has gone cold.

The Orioles, on the other hand, are third in OPS over that time frame.

The Orioles bullpen has also been significantly better than the Rays this season, ranking seventh in bullpen ERA at 3.37 while the Rays enter this weekend's series ranking 21st in bullpen ERA at 4.19.

On top of all that, Cole Irvin (2.84 ERA) is the clear superior starting pitcher over Aaron Civale (5.37 ERA).

Give me the O's tonight.

Pick: Orioles -104

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

4 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

American League Rookie Roundup: Reasons for Hope Among Last-Place Teams

Welcome to the Rookie Roundup, a weekly look-in on baseball’s best and most interesting first-year players. Last week, we checked in on under-the-radar rookie pitchers in the National League. This week, we’ll take a peek at American League squads currently floundering in last place in their respective divisions, and which rookies are providing the most hope for better tomorrows.

We’re now two months into the season, and by week’s end every team will have fewer than 100 games remaining on the schedule. That’s certainly more than enough time for fortunes to shift dramatically in the standings. But for a select few particularly dismal clubs, the writing is on the wall: 2024 just might not be their year.

For our basement-dwelling teams in the American League, now’s as good a time as any to start searching for silver linings. Let’s take a look at one rookie on each of the four last-place teams (we have a tie in the AL East) that’s providing reasons for optimism—maybe not for this year, but for the summers ahead, when hopefully the outlook is rosier than it is today.

All stats are updated through Sunday’s games.

Top rookie: Bryan Ramos, 3B

Ramos made his major league debut on May 4, and though he scuffled in his first taste of The Show (and has since been optioned back to the minors), the fact that he reached the big leagues at just 22 years old is reason to be hopeful in what’s been a truly terrible season for the South Siders.

Ramos is an all-around player who projects to be good in most areas but maybe lacks the high ceiling of the game’s blue-chip prospects. He posted an .826 OPS at Double A in 2023 and had six hits in four games since being optioned to Triple A last week. He’ll almost certainly be back with the big-league club at some point this season given that the White Sox are on pace to lose over 120 games.

Top rookie: Rafael Soriano, RHP

Chicago’s historically abysmal start has overshadowed what’s been a miserable season for the Angels. Mike Trout hasn’t played since April 29 and will likely miss at least a couple more months, and the team sits in last place behind an Oakland A’s team that many expected to be among baseball’s worst.

Soriano walks off the field after the final out of the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park. / Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

Los Angeles has several rookies on the active roster, in no small part because of the organization’s woeful lack of depth necessitating quick promotions. As a result, players like Nolan Schanuel and Kyren Paris have struggled, though Soriano has provided a bright spot in the rotation. After originally signing with the Angels in 2016 at 17 years old, Soriano underwent two Tommy John surgeries during his minor league career before debuting in ‘23. He showed promise as a relief pitcher and has made the move to the rotation this season. Across 10 starts, Soriano has posted a 3.78 ERA with 51 strikeouts. His transition as a starter is beginning to pay off from a durability standpoint, as he’s logged at least six innings in each of his last three outings.

Top rookie: Curtis Mead, 2B/3B

The typically development-savvy Rays have fallen on hard times to begin 2024, posting the fourth-worst run differential (minus-53) in the American League. As such, there aren’t many impact rookies to choose from: outfielder Jonny DeLuca—currently batting .182—is the only rookie hitter on the roster, while Tampa Bay has had only 7 2/3 innings logged by rookie pitchers on the season.

Given that context, we’ll go with Mead as the Rays’ best source of hope. The 23-year-old posted a .900 OPS at Triple A last year to earn his first call-up, hitting a .253/.326/.349 across 24 games—not spectacular, but serviceable enough to earn himself a pair of starts in Tampa Bay’s two playoff games last October. He made the team’s Opening Day roster and struggled to find a groove at the plate, and the Rays optioned him to Triple A on May 6.

Since the demotion, Mead has picked things back up, posting a .262/.340/.459 slash line in 23 games. Given the commendable production from Isaac Paredes, Richie Palacios and Amed Rosario, it might take some attrition for Mead to get another shot at regular playing time. But continued improvement in the minor leagues would be encouraging for a player who seems to have a high ceiling.

Top rookie: Davis Schneider, 2B/OF

Schneider quickly became one of the best feel-good stories of the 2023 season in his brief big-league debut, and he hasn’t slowed down in ‘24.

Selected by the Blue Jays in the 28th round of the 2017 draft, Schneider wowed in a 35-game stint last year, posting a .276/.404/.603 slash line. He’s provided Toronto with strong production this season (134 OPS+) even after his BABIP has regressed from the unsustainable .369 it was in ‘23 to a more stabilized .305 this year. Schneider still strikes out a lot, but his 12.2% walk rate ranks among the league’s highest. The longer he maintains his current production, the more he’ll prove that last season’s breakout wasn’t just a flash in the pan.

31 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Rays’ Richie Palacios Equals Brother, Uncle With First Career Walk-Off Hit

Before Thursday, Tampa Bay Rays second baseman Richie Palacios was the low man on the totem pole of clutch family members.

Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Josh Palacios—Richie's brother—had clubbed a walk-off home run against the Philadelphia Phillies on July 30, 2023. Former Kansas City Royals catcher Rey Palacios, Richie's uncle, also owned a walk-off grand slam against the Boston Red Sox on May 14, 1990.

Now, Richie has joined the club.

Palacios's walk-off single gave the Rays a 6-5 victory over the Oakland Athletics Thursday—and gave Palacios, at last, the first walk-off of his three-year career.

"I was doing an interview the other day, and my brother has a walk-off and my uncle has a walk-off. And I said in the interview, ‘Better get a walkoff before this becomes a family thing.’ I didn’t know it was going to come (Thursday), but it is exciting that it did," Palacios told reporters postgame via Kristie Ackert of The Tampa Bay Times.

Palacios is slashing .262/.360/.369 for Tampa Bay this season with four home runs and 12 RBIs in 48 games.

1 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Umpires Demand Brewers Pitcher Change Glove Despite Fact He Used It Previous Night

If you like messy baseball, this week's three-game series between the Tampa Bay Rays and the surprising Milwaukee Brewers is the series for you.

On Tuesday, tensions between the two teams erupted into a bench-clearing brawl that led to four suspensions. Somehow, the Brewers found time to pull out an 8–2 victory—turning the tables on the Rays after they shut out Milwaukee 1–0 Monday.

In Wednesday's series finale, the hijinks continued. Late in the game, umpires asked Brewers pitcher Thyago Vieira to change his glove—seemingly oblivious to the fact that Vieira had used the same glove in the previous night's game.

Milwaukee's announcers on Bally Sports Wisconsin speculated that the change was due to the coloring of the removed glove, and chuckled at the fact that Vieira replaced it with a garish yellow one.

Brewers vs. Umpires 😉#ThisIsMyCrew // #MLB pic.twitter.com/aMqIn0LpCA
— Bally Sports Wisconsin (@BallySportWI) May 1, 2024

Seemingly unfazed by the change, Vieira hurled a scoreless ninth inning in a 7–1 Brewers win.

1 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Benches Clear in Brewers-Rays After Abner Uribe, Jose Siri Exchange Punches

Things quickly became heated on the field Tuesday night in the eighth inning of the Milwaukee Brewers' 8–2 win over the Tampa Bay Rays.

To lead off the eighth, Rays outfielder Jose Siri grounded out to first base. While Siri jogged to first, Brewers reliever Abner Uribe appeared to have some words for the 28-year-old. Siri chirped back.

Despite umpire Phil Cuzzi's best efforts to separate the two players, Uribe and Siri exchanged blows, with Uribe throwing the first punch over Cuzzi’s shoulder to connect with Siri’s helmet. Both the Brewers and Rays benches cleared, and chaos ensued from there.

Benches clear in Milwaukee #ThisIsMyCrew | #MLB pic.twitter.com/EddvB1Tsav
— Bally Sports Wisconsin (@BallySportWI) May 1, 2024

When the dust had settled, Siri and Uribe both were ejected. Hoby Milner took over on the mound for Uribe, and the Brewers cruised to finish off their 8–2 win.

Tensions between Siri and the Brewers began earlier in the game. After Siri crushed a solo homer in the third inning, Milwaukee starting pitcher Freddy Peralta hit him with a 95.2-mph fastball in his next at-bat in the sixth. Home plate umpire Chris Guccione ejected Peralta and Brewers manager Pat Murphy after that play.

MLB likely will hand out suspensions for Uribe and Siri, among others, on Wednesday. The Brewers and Rays will wrap up their three-game series Wednesday at 1:10 p.m. ET.