Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Sabrina Ionescu, Mercury-Wings)

Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Sabrina Ionescu, Mercury-Wings)

Sunday brings a loaded WNBA slate of Commissioner’s Cup games before Game 2 of the NBA Finals tips off, giving us a chance to watch basketball all day long.

It doesn’t get much better than that, does it?

The Washington Mystics and New York Liberty kick off the action on Sunday after 3 p.m. EST, but that’s not the only game I’m betting on today.

There are two player props that I’m targeting for some veteran players, as well as a moneyline pick in the Dallas Wings-Phoenix Mercury matchup with Brittney Griner and Rebecca Allen back for the Mercury. 

Let’s break down each of these picks for a basketball-filled close to the weekend: 

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Phoenix Mercury Moneyline (-120) vs. Dallas Wings

The Wings have dropped four games in a row, and they lack the offensive firepower after Arike Ogunbowale to compete with a fully healthy Mercury team in my eyes. 

Satou Sabally and Natasha Howard being out has forced several Wings players to step up into bigger roles than they’d usually have. 

Even though Ogunbowale is scoring the ball at a high rate, she’s not shooting it efficiently, and neither are the Wings as a whole. They rank eighth in the league in effective field goal percentage, and that’s not the worst part of their advanced numbers in 2024. 

Dallas is also 10th in the league in defensive rating, which is a major concern given the weapons (Griner, Diana Taurasi, Kahleah Copper) that the Mercury have on offense. 

Now, I don’t want to act like Phoenix has been elite this season. It actually ranks 11th in defensive rating and 10th in net rating in 2024, but we have to remember that two starters were out for the first 10 games of the season.

The first game they came back? 

Phoenix promptly beat the best team in the Western Conference right now as a 5.5-point underdog. 

The Mercury have some big wins (over Minnesota and Las Vegas) and their defense should improve with Griner protecting the rim. Before Phoenix was running an extremely small four-guard lineup. 

I think this is a buy low spot on the Mercury before oddsmakers realize how deadly this team can be at full strength. 

Sabrina Ionescu OVER 18.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit

Sabrina Ionescu has been on fire as of late, scoring 22 or more points in four of her last six games, pushing her season-long scoring average to 17.8 points per game.

After a slow shooting start to the season, we’re starting to see what the two-time All-Star is truly capable of, and she’s coming off a huge 24-point game in a win over the Connecticut Sun on Saturday.

With Courtney Vandersloot (personal) likely out of the lineup for the second straight game on Sunday, Ionescu should play pretty heavy minutes against the Washington Mystics, who rank ninth in the league in defensive rating this season. 

Plus, Sloot usually initiates a ton of offense, so it’s likely that Ionescu will have the ball in her hands even more than usual in this game. Despite a poor 4-for-12 shooting game against the Mystics earlier this season, Ionescu is one of my favorite targets on Sunday. 

Nneka Ogwumike OVER 16.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

For the third time this season, Nneka Ogwumike and the Seattle Storm will match up with the Minnesota Lynx, and Ogwumike has dominated this matchup in 2024.

The veteran forward had 20 points on 10-of-18 shooting in the season opener before dropping 24 points on 8-of-12 shooting in the next matchup. On the season, Ogwumike is averaging 17.7 points per game, clearing 16.5 points in five of her seven appearances. 

She’s seen her scoring drop in her last three games (10, 17 and 12 points), but Ogwumike has still attempted double-digit shots in all but one game. 

Given her success against Minnesota this season, I’ll buy low on this prop at 16.5 after it was nearing 20.5 earlier in the season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Pat McAfee Defended Caitlin Clark’s Popularity in a Controversial Rant

Pat McAfee Defended Caitlin Clark’s Popularity in a Controversial Rant

Caitlin Clark has the entire sports talk industry turned upside down right now. Clark and the Indiana Fever have been playing nonstop since the season started and between the attention and pressure, she has struggled out of the gate. On top of that there's how she's being treated by other teams, which has not been very nicely, culminating in a cheap shot from Chennedy Carter over the weekend.

On Monday's episode of The Pat McAfee Show, the eponymous host got out from behind the desk and did a whole presentation about how important Clark is and how jealous all the haters are. He did this is in a McAfee-specific fashion as he swore on ESPN and identified Clark as the "white b----" who has lifted the entire sport.

"I would like the media people that continue to say this rookie class, this rookie class, this rookie class. Nah. Just call it for what it is," said McAfee. "There's one white b---- for this Indiana team who is a superstar. And is it because she stayed in Iowa, put an entire team on her back, took a program from nothing to a multiple-year success story?"

"Is it because she would go on to break the entire points records in the history of the NCAA? Not just the women's by Kelsea Plum - shout out - but also "Pistol" Pete Maravich's. The dude's record as well. Is there a chance that people just like watching her play basketball? Because of how electrifying she is. What she did. What she stood for. How she went about going what she went for? Maybe. But instead we have to hear people say that we only like her because she's white. And she's only popular because the rest of the rookie class is doing what they're doing. That's a bunch of bulls----. And we think the WNBA, more specifically, their refs, need to stop trying to screw her over at every single turn. What you have is somebody special. And we're lucky to have her in Indiana."

McAfee also discussed the "Eminem effect," playing a clip of 50 Cent saying people didn't want to give Eminem credit because he was white. "Let's just take that into the WNBA situation," said McAfee. "That it is just a bunch of racist people who will only watch if a white superstar is there." Then the show put up pictures of Diana Taurasi, Sabrina Ionescu, Kelsey Plum and Breanna Stewart. "I think what we're trying to say is what the WNBA currently has is what we like to describe as a cash cow. There is a superstar."

All-in-all, a very colorful presentation by McAfee, who continues to make it clear that he can do whatever he wants on ESPN. Including defending Clark by trying to make sense of why so many people apparently hate her. By whatever means necessary.

Celtics' Payton Pritchard Reveals Why He Wears Sabrina Ionescu's Signature Shoes

Celtics’ Payton Pritchard Reveals Why He Wears Sabrina Ionescu’s Signature Shoes

Payton Pritchard and the Boston Celtics are currently awaiting the end of the Orlando Magic - Cleveland Cavaliers series to learn their opponent for the upcoming Eastern Conference semifinal series.

While everyone waits for the unofficial NBA TV series to wrap up on national television sometime this weekend, the local press gets to ask whatever questions they don't have time for when there are actual games to talk about, which is probably why someone finally asked Pritchard about his sneakers.

Prtichard wears Sabrina Ionescu's signature Nike shoes. Pritchard and Ionescu both went to Oregon as freshmen in 2016 and played all four years in Eugene before turning pro.

Ionescu was selected with the first pick of the 2020 WNBA draft, while Pritchard was taken 26th by the Celtics. While Pritchard doesn't have his own signature shoe, at least he found a comfortable one with his friend's name on it.

Pritchard is not the only NBA player rocking the Sabrina's. During All-Star Weekend, Dallas Mavericks center Dereck Lively II revealed that he had an exciting exchange with Ionescu about her shoes. She thanked him for wearing them while he thanked her for making them so comfortable.

That's some solid word-of-mouth. Not only does Ionescu have the skill and profile to be featured during NBA All-Star Saturday, but she also has got the footwear to back it up.

And if she has it her way, more WNBA players will get signature shoes. If they're half as comfortable as hers apparently are, that's a good thing for all basketball players.