Iga Świątek Continues Clay Reign With French Open Three-Peat

Iga Świątek Continues Clay Reign With French Open Three-Peat

If indeed this 2024 vintage of the French Open marked the last time that 14-time champ Rafael Nadal played this event, be assured there is an heir apparent. An heiress apparent, anyway. Saturday on Court Philippe Chatrier, Iga Swiatek, 23, won the French Open women’s singles title for the third straight time and fourth time in the last five years. In this afternoon’s final, in what was less a tennis match than a tennis demonstration, she swept aside Italy’s Jasmine Paolini 6–2, 6–1 in 68 minutes.

Recalling Nadal, Swiatek sometimes appeared to play tennis. Other times she was playing an elevated, clay-specific version of the sport. She guided her heavy, spin-drizzled whipping groundstrokes with power and precision. She served capably. She transitioned from impenetrable defense to potent offense. She hugged the baseline between unbeatable and unplayable.

Many of Swiatek’s talents and skills are obvious to the naked eye. Others, less so. In the second round, she was a point from losing to Naomi Osaka, who entered the tournament tied with Swiatek with four majors. Swiatek took a risk on a return. She won the point. And the game. And soon thereafter the match.

Her campaign salvaged, she was never threatened again, dropping just 17 games in her next five matches, adding to her tally of 21 straight wins at Roland Garros. Confidence begetting confidence, on the rare occasion she is made to fight, Swiatek does so.

The comparisons to Nadal—who won only 64% of his majors here, as opposed to Swiatek’s current ratio of 80—are apt. So, too are the comparisons to Steffi Graf, who married skill and athleticism with unflappability. One stat that tells a rich story: this was Swiatek’s 22nd overall pro title. She has played in 26 finals.

Do spare a thought for Paolini, the delightful and winsome 28-year-old, who has emerged as both a lead figure of the Italian tennis invasion and a new star on the WTA Tour. Mid-career, her gifts are finally coalescing. If she is modest in stature, she is overflowing with energy and confidence. She leaves this event embedded in the top 10 and is still alive to play the women's doubles final tomorrow with partner Sara Errani.

But today she had few answers for Swiatek and her battery of skills, which gives her something in common with 126 other players in the draw. This was Swiatek’s day. At her event. During her era.

For two decades, the Big Three was a sort of rhythm section to men’s tennis. Women’s tennis now has a-the-big one.

Jasmine Paolini vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction, Odds and Pick for French Open Quarterfinal

Jasmine Paolini vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction, Odds and Pick for French Open Quarterfinal

After years of futile efforts, Jasmine Paolini is enjoying her career-best run at the 2024 French Open, into the quarterfinals for the first time in six attempts. 

The World No. 15 has struggled at Roland-Garros but has won four straight to set up her first opponent inside the world No. 70 Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals.

The world No. 4 Rybakina is enjoying her best appearance at the French Open since 2021, which ties for her career-best mark. Can she extend it and make the semifinals? 

Here’s the full betting preview: 

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Moneyline

Total: 20.5 (Over -110/Under -122)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

The two top 15 players have played two full matches against one another, both won by Rybakina, but the most recent one was a three-set match on (indoor) clay in Stuttgart (6-3, 6-7, 6-3). Paolini couldn’t make good on her second serves, winning 39% of those points and facing 15 break points to Rybakina’s seven BPs. 

So, how can the Italian close the gap against Rybakina after facing a low level of competition thus far? I’d say it's on Paolini holding serve and dragging the match into potential tiebreak situations. Ryabakina has a vicious first serve on clay and has held on nearly 75% of her 70 tracked matches on clay, per TennisAbstract. However, she has only broken opponents on about 38% of return games. 

A lot of Rybakina’s matches in the run-up to Roland-Garros featured longer matches. In eight clay court wins before the French Open, four of them went to three sets, including her win against Paolini. While I won’t call for the outright upset, I think we see a bit more resistance than the odds expect and this is a longer match. 

I’ll back the over games as my preferred bet in this French Open quarterfinal.

PICK: OVER 20.5 Games (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds and Pick for French Open Quarterfinal

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds and Pick for French Open Quarterfinal

Two top 10 foes meet at Roland-Garros in the French Open quarterfinals on Tuesday evening. 

World No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz has owned his career series against No. 9 Stefanos Tsitsipas, winning all five matches against his Greek opponent in his career. Can the Spanish phenom continue his excellence on clay in hopes of pushing closer to winning his first French Open title? 

Here are the odds and our best bet for the Tuesday quarterfinal matchup: 

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Moneyline

Total: 36.5 (Over -112/Under -118)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Both players have been lightly tested during this Grand Slam tournament, but it’s tough to look past the historical results and see that Alcaraz is a justified favorite, winning all five matches, including last year in this same situation. 

In the 2023 French Open, Alcaraz beat Tsitsipas 3-0 (6-2, 6-1, 7-6) to advance to the semifinals. While Alcaraz has dealt with some injury issues this year in the lead-up to Roland-Garros, there is still a gap between the two and I believe the Spaniard is well-equipped to handle his opponent. 

Alcaraz has made his first serve at 67% or higher in all four matches thus far, making it hard for any opponent to generate much traction while returning and hoping to get breakpoints. Further, given Alcaraz’s ability on clay to return, he has broken 35% of opponent's games in 86 non-French Open clay matches in his career, I trust him to cash in on more opportunities throughout the match. 

Tsitsipas hasn’t proven to be able to compete with Alcaraz in the past, and while fitness concerns were an issue at the start of the tournament, I’m confident that the former No. 1 in the world can win in straight sets to get to the semis. 

PICK: Alcaraz 3-0 (+145)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Even in Defeat, Rafael Nadal Is a Champion at Roland Garros

Even in Defeat, Rafael Nadal Is a Champion at Roland Garros

He is a man who needs no introduction. Especially here, where his statue adorns the grounds. But when Rafael Nadal came out Monday for his first match of the 2024 French Open, the courtside announcer did his thing. Taking a breath, he summoned Nadal by name and then ticked off the years he had won the title.

2005
2006
2007
2008
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2017
2018
2019
2020
2022

Fourteen in all. It’s a joke of a tally. The recitation of which enabled a somber occasion to start with some levity.

Presumptively, this was to be Nadal’s last French Open, his final raging against the dying of the light. He turns 38 next week. His current ranking slums outside the top 250, the kind of grim math that comes when your body doesn’t let you play—much less win—many matches.

He entered the tournament unseeded, jarring in itself. And, the tennis fates did their thing, yielding a first-round opponent of … Alexander Zverev, the fourth seed, the player who won last week’s big preview event in Rome, one of the top contenders, the last player at Roland Garros to push Nadal.

So it was these last dance vibes that came edged with a wince. The Rolling Stones or Elton John can announce a final tour. They may not hit every note. But they also don’t lose in straight sets to, say, Mumford & Sons.

Tickets to the most anticipated first-round match in the history of tennis—it's not hyperbole: try and name another—fetched $5,000 on the secondary markets and brought out both royalty and tennis nobility. Though he plays Tuesday, Novak Djokovic was in the stands. As was Carlos Alcaraz, the betting favorite to win this event. Iga Świątek, the defending women’s champion, finished her first-round rout, showered and took a seat.

As for the match itself … it played out as expected. Nostalgia and hope are powerful intoxicants. But eventually, they regress to the mean, and talent and time win out.

There were moments when Nadal did a convincing Nadal impersonation, striking the ball ferociously, picking off volleys, looking like the clay court impresario whose career record at this venue, going into Monday, was 112–3. There were times when he looked like a man in his late 30s—playing a fine opponent, more than a decade younger. There were times when he looked fresh, and there were times he looked physically spent, as one would expect from any player who had gone more than 450 days without playing a best-of-five match.

Nadal was, inauspiciously, broken to start the match, and Zverev took the first set 6–3. Nadal broke Zverev and served for the second, electrifying the crowd. When he failed to close, the deflation was palpable. When he lost the second set in a tiebreaker, this went from an exercise in potentially witnessing history to an exercise in potentially witnessing Nadal’s final match, at least at the French Open.

Nadal addressed the Roland Garros crowd following the match, saying he wasn't sure if this was his last French Open.Nadal addressed the Roland Garros crowd following the match, saying he wasn't sure if this was his last French Open.

Nadal addressed the Roland Garros crowd following the match, saying he wasn't sure if this was his last French Open. / Clive Mason/Getty Images

The third set was Nadal's insistence on not going quietly. He got up an early break but then gave it up and fell 6–3, 7–6, 6–3. Respectable? Absolutely. But not the result befitting a 14-time champ.

You cite the comical, flattering stats, you also have to cite the downers. For the first time in nearly 20 years, Nadal lost in the first round of a clay event. For the first time here, he lost in the first round. For the first time ever, he has now lost back-to-back matches on clay. 

Credit Zverev for compartmentalizing, ignoring the occasion, locking in mentally, and simply bringing his flagrant talent—especially on his backhand—to bear. He can now pivot from this momentous match to trying to win his first major, a distinct possibility. (Zverev's appeal of a penalty order issued by a German court stemming from domestic abuse allegations made by his ex-girlfriend goes to trial during the tournament.)

As for Nadal … who knows? He called off a retirement ceremony the tournament had planned. It’s not that he’s being coy about the endpoint of his unrivaled career. It’s that, by all accounts, he genuinely doesn’t know when the ride will end. Ironically his last match might be in Paris in two months, assuming he fulfills his vow to play in the 2024 Olympics.

He left the court wearing a look of resignation. One that suggested he has played the French Open for the last time. But also—a champion to the end—that he genuinely thought he could take this match. 

On Monday, Zverev won. So, alas, and as ever, did time.