Walk-Off Wagers: Plus-money pitcher strikeout props to target (Framber Valdez and Nick Pivetta)

Walk-Off Wagers: Plus-money pitcher strikeout props to target (Framber Valdez and Nick Pivetta)

Happy Hump Day!  It’s a great day for an entire day of major league baseball. 

If you want to get in on the action, I’ve found a couple of appealing plus-money strikeout props for you to consider: one for the afternoon and one for the evening slate. 

Let’s have some fun!  

Framber Valdez under 4.5 K (+120) at San Francisco Giants

Jun 7, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Houston Astros pitcher Framber Valdez (59) throws against the Los Angeles Angels during the ninth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY SportsJun 7, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Houston Astros pitcher Framber Valdez (59) throws against the Los Angeles Angels during the ninth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Jun 7, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Houston Astros pitcher Framber Valdez (59) throws against the Los Angeles Angels during the ninth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco Giants' low strikeout rate has me looking at the under on Framber's K-prop today. The Giants have a 21.3% K-rate this season, resulting in an average of eight strikeouts per game. That K-rate drops even further to 20% when they face lefties. 

Framber Valdez pitched a complete game in his last outing, punching out eight Los Angeles Angels.  That's likely why we're getting good plus-money today for this under, even though Framber's 63.9% ground ball rate is the highest among starters with 40+ innings pitched and he is striking out batters at just seven per nine innings. 

Framber is averaging five strikeouts per game this season, so this isn't without risk, but the payout is appealing. He has gone under this prop in five of 10 starts this season. 

Nick Pivetta over 5.5 K (+105) vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Sep 29, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA;  Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) throws a second inning pitch against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY SportsSep 29, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA;  Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) throws a second inning pitch against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Sep 29, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) throws a second inning pitch against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Am I wrong, or is Nick Pivetta consistently under-appreciated? 

Pivetta is striking batters out at nearly 11 per nine, and his walk rate is among the best in the league.   That strikeout rate is even better when he is pitching at Fenway.  Pivetta has a K-rate of 12.23 at home this year.  

Philadelphia is not a high K-rate team, striking out just 20.4% of the time vs. righties this year (eighth-best in MLB), but historically, Pivetta has struck out this Phillies lineup at a rate of 26.8%, according to Statcast. 

Pivetta has exceeded this prop in five of eight starts this season, including four of his last five.  I'll take the value and bet he gets to six today. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Red Sox Infielder Had Most Special Hit of MLB Season, and Fans Were So Happy For Him

Red Sox Infielder Had Most Special Hit of MLB Season, and Fans Were So Happy For Him

Boston's Jamie Westbrook stepped in as a pinch-hitter in a 9-0 game on Wednesday against the Braves and had a moment he'll never forget when he slapped a single to left field on a 3-2 count

Normally a hit like that near the end of a blowout wouldn't mean all that much to anyone involved but for Westbrook it meant everything, as it was his first major league hit after spending 11 years in the minor leagues.

His family watching from the stands loved it and his teammates in the dugout also went nuts,.

This was great:

Fans were so happy for him:

MLB Best Bets: Back Two Road Underdogs at Plus Money

MLB Best Bets: Back Two Road Underdogs at Plus Money

Happy Tuesday!  

Let’s have some fun and look at a couple of plus-money dogs that could be worth a wager Tuesday night—all odds according to DraftKings

Braves ML +145 at DraftKings   

Sure, the Braves are at home, and yes, Reynaldo Lopez has been excellent to start the season, but +145 for the Red Sox to pull off the upset looks mighty fine to me.

Kutter Crawford gets the start for the Red Sox, and he has been excellent this year. If you’re a fantasy baseball enthusiast, you probably already know this. He was one of my favorite sleepers heading into the season and became a waiver wire must-add some time ago.

But I digress.

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Boston Red Sox pitcher Kutter Crawford on April 5, 2024.

Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

Crawford has a 1.56 ERA this season and isn’t allowing hard contact. His 26.1% hard-hit rate is in the top 3% of the league.   

The Braves have scored the second-most runs per game this season (5.09), but their bats have been cold for the past two weeks. They have managed only 3.18 runs per game across the past two weeks of play. That ranks 27th out of 30 MLB teams. 

The Red Sox have averaged 4.92 runs per game across the last two weeks of play, ranking seventh in MLB. 

The public will be all on the Braves bouncing back at home.  After all, the Braves are 11-4 this season when they are the home favorite. It’s tempting to back the home team, but the +145 is even more enticing. 

Houston Astros ML +105 at DraftKings 

The Yankees swept Houston in the first series of the season at Minute Maid, and now they even get home-field advantage.

So, why are we backing the Houston Astros, whose bullpen has blown nine saves? 

Justin Verlander.

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Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander takes the mound Tuesday.

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Verlander has been sharp since returning from the IL, allowing only four earned runs across three starts and 17 1/3 innings pitched.  Not only that, but this Yankees lineup is hitting a collective .158 and slugging a mere .354 lifetime vs. Verlander.

Both teams have hit well recently, and yes, Juan Soto seems to be Houston’s daddy, but for the plus-money payout, I’m willing to bet the road team comes out on top in a low-scoring affair Tuesday. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.