Game 2 of the NBA Finals is upon us, and there are only so many more days that we can bet on the NBA this season, so why not take advantage of them with a few player prop picks?
Game 1 between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks ended up being a blowout, but it was an educational game in terms of how these teams are going to match up.
We learned that Kristaps Porzingis was going to come off the bench, Boston was going to play Luka Doncic straight up, and Dallas’ lob threats weren't going to have an easy time at the rim.
There is one prop I took in Game 1 – Jrue Holiday’s points, rebounds, and assists – that I’m going back to on Sunday night, along with two more plays to round out the betting card.
Kristaps Porzingis OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-130)
Kristaps Porzingis came off the bench for Boston in Game 1 and dominated the game in the 21 minutes that he played, shooting 8-for-13 from the field and 2-for-4 from beyond the arc.
While he didn’t play his usual minutes, Porzingis still attempted the second-most shots on the team and was a clear focal point on the Boston offense.
I’m eyeing his 3-point prop in Game 2, as he’s had a ton of success against Dallas in this market this season. In his lone regular-season meeting with the Mavs, KP drilled four of his eight shots from beyond the arc.
Dallas switched a lot in Game 1, giving Porzingis some favorable matchups to shoot over smaller defenders. If that continues, I imagine he keeps letting it fly from 3. KP shot 37.5 percent from beyond the arc in the regular season.
Jrue Holiday OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
Jrue Holiday did a little bit of everything in Game 1, finishing with 12 points (4-for-9 shooting), eight rebounds, and five assists to clear his PRA prop of 22.5.
Oddsmakers are setting this at the same number in Game 2, and I’ll gladly take the OVER again on the Celtics point guard.
Holiday has now cleared this line in every game since the start of the Eastern Conference Finals and seven of his last eight contests while averaging 16.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game over that stretch.
There aren’t a ton of shots to go around in the Boston offense, but Holiday still got a decent share in Game 1 and did a lot of the dirty work on the glass as well. Until he starts missing this number consistently, he’s a must-bet for me in Game 2.
PJ Washington OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-135)
Dallas forward PJ Washington had a big game on the glass in Game 1 with the Celtics spreading out the Dallas defense.
Washington finished with eight rebounds in the loss, the ninth time in 12 times that he’s cleared this total (dating back to the start of the second round against Oklahoma City).
For the playoffs, Washington has just one game where he finished with less than five rebounds, and he’s averaging 6.8 rebounds per game overall.
Dallas needs him on the floor defensively, and this is a favorable matchup for him to hit the glass on the defensive end since both of Boston’s centers stretch the floor and aren’t always parked in the paint (like Rudy Gobert was in the Western Conference Finals).
This is a great number to land Washington at him Game 2.
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Game 1 of the NBA Finals was all Boston, as the Boston Celtics opened up the biggest first-quarter lead in a Game 1 in NBA history on Thursday night and cruised to a 107-89 win to take a 1-0 series lead.
Boston is now -400 to win the NBA Finals – an implied probability of 80 percent – and it is heavily favored again in Game 2 to take a 2-0 series lead.
Dallas’ role players struggled in Game 1, as PJ Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Daniel Gafford, Maxi Kleber, and Dereck Lively II gave the team very little on offense. Kyrie Irving (12 points) also shot terribly from the field, going 6-for-19.
What’s most impressive about Boston’s Game 1 win was that Jayson Tatum (6-for-16 shooting, six turnovers) did not play well by his standards, and the C’s still cruised to a win.
Jaylen Brown (22 points on 7-of-12 shooting), and Kristaps Porzingis (20 points on 8-of-13 shooting) took over the game in the first half, especially Porzingis in the first quarter.
Unless Dallas’ role players – and Irving – step up in Game 2, there’s a good chance Boston leads this series 2-0 before it shifts back to Dallas.
Here’s a look at the latest odds, key players to watch and my best bet for Game 2 of the NBA Finals:
Kyrie Irving: There are no two ways around it, Kyrie Irving was awful in Game 1 on Thursday night, shooting just 6-for-19 from the field and 0-for-5 from beyond the arc, finishing with 12 points. Dallas’ offense mustered just 89 points – despite 30 from Luka Doncic – and Irving is the clear player that needs to step up in that category for the Mavs to keep up with this vaunted Boston attack.
Boston Celtics
Kristaps Porzingis: How important was Kristaps Porzingis in Game 1? Well, he’s skyrocketed in the odds to win the NBA Finals MVP award. KP only played 21 minutes in Game 1, but his impact was undeniable. Boston was an impressive +13 in his minutes, and the big man finished with 20 points, six rebounds, and three blocks while shooting 8-for-13 from the field and 2-for-4 from beyond the arc. Could his role/minutes expand in Game 2?
Porzingis was the best player on the floor – especially in the first half – controlling the game on both ends with his size.
Dallas was unable to get lobs at the rim to Gafford and Lively II – rendering them nearly useless on the offensive end – and Porzingis hunted and dominated the smaller Dallas players in switches on his way to an impressive shooting night.
On the Dallas side, PJ Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Maxi Kleber, Irving, and Tim Hardaway Jr. went 1-for-11 from beyond the arc. Luka Doncic, whose teammates were shooting 57 percent from the field on his passes this postseason, had just one assist.
That’s not going to cut it for Dallas, especially when the Celtics shoot 16-for-42 (38.1 percent) from beyond the arc.
Boston seemed content playing Doncic straight up, and the rest of the Mavericks were unable to give the All-NBA guard much help.
When it comes to betting on Game 2, I’m focusing on the first half, a place where Boston has thrived this season.
The Celtics let things slip in the third quarter, allowing Dallas to cut the lead to just eight points, but it responded with a quick 8-0 run to push things back up to 16 before a Mavs timeout late in the third.
I want to avoid any letdown in the third quarter – or just a run where Dallas gets going – and take the C’s to cover the short first-half spread (Boston -3.5).
This season, Boston is a league-best 63-32-1 against the spread in the first half. Dallas is 49-50 ATS, which isn’t a bad mark, but it’s way behind the C’s.
Boston looked comfortable and focused from the jump on Thursday night, and it has so many different offensive options to punish the Dallas defense.
This may end up being a closer game than Game 1 by the end, but I love trusting the Celtics to start fast like they’ve done all season long.
Pick: Celtics 1H -3.5 (-110)
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Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum. Kyrie Irving vs. Boston. Kristaps Porzingis vs. Dallas.
The stage is set for the 2024 NBA Finals, and we could be in for quite the series, especially since both of these teams have gotten a ton of rest since the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.
Game 1 – on June 6 – is still a few days away, but the betting markets for the NBA Finals are alive and well. Not only are there odds for the series winner, exact games and NBA Finals MVP, but bettors can also wager on series-long player props ahead of Game 1 as well.
Using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, I’m taking a deep dive into this series where the Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win their first title in the Jayson Tatum era – something that has been building all season long in the futures market.
Dallas, who is the No. 5 seed in the West, won three consecutive playoff series as a road team and underdog, but can it win one more? Doncic and Irving certainly are as well-equipped as a duo could be to lead their team to the promised land.
As someone who is holding a preseason future on Boston, there are several ways to play this series. But, before getting into my pick, let’s discuss the series odds, correct score and Finals MVP markets and how they may shake out.
Based on implied probability, Boston has a 67.74 percent chance to win this series, while Dallas clocks in at 36.36 percent.
It makes sense since Boston has home-court advantage in this matchup, but the Mavericks have played some great basketball as of late. Not only did they post the best defensive rating in the NBA over their last 15 games of the regular season, but they closed the season on a 16-4 run to earn the No. 5 seed.
Since the trade deadline, when Dallas acquired PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, it has been a totally different team.
However, there is one thing that I’ve been tracking for years that is working against Dallas in this series. Since the 1996-97 season, every team that has won the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in net rating during the regular season.
Dallas did not in the 2023-24 campaign.
Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
Is this the year that this trend breaks? It could be given how drastically the Mavs’ roster changed at the trade deadline. Dallas had a net rating of +1.3 before the All-Star break (around the trade deadline) and it ended up posting a +3.7 net rating in 27 games out of the All-Star break – which was good for 12th in the NBA.
I try not to read into these trends too much, but this one has extended over 25 years, so it’s going to take a special team to break it.
As for Boston, this has been the expectation for the team all season long. The C’s have been Finals favorites for most of the campaign, and they rolled through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs.
While Boston has been maligned for having an easier path to the Finals due to injuries to its opponents, the Celtics beat whoever was in front of them, going 12-2 on their run. It’s hard to be much better than that.
Since Boston is heavily favored to win this series, it has the three most likely outcomes in the correct score odds at DraftKings.
Given Boston’s dominance on the road (6-0 this postseason), it isn’t crazy to think that this series could be over in five or six games, even though Dallas has yet to face a Game 7 all postseason.
The Mavericks’ most likely outcome is to take the series in six games, with a four or five game win sitting as a massive long shot. Dallas has an implied probability of just 7.69 percent to win in five games and five percent to win in four games.
Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite to win NBA Finals MVP with Boston favored in this series, but can we count out Jaylen Brown?
Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, yet he’s +650 to win Finals MVP. Tatum has played much better as of late, but he started the postseason off in a bit of a shooting slump, and will likely draw one of Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. for the entirety of the series against Dallas.
Luka Doncic (+205) is also interesting since he leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made.
Obviously, Dallas would have to overcome being a massive underdog for Doncic to win this award, but at +205 he presents some more value than simply taking the Mavs to win the series. It’s tough to see any other Dallas player winning this award based on the odds, unless Kyrie Irving has a massive series scoring the ball.
Doncic has been a triple-double machine in these playoffs, so we know he’s going to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis, which would help him when it comes to the Finals MVP voting.
Even though oddsmakers don’t seem to think this matchup will be super close, I actually believe we’re in for a terrific series given how Dallas matches up defensively with the Celtics.
Washington, Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II are all versatile defenders that could match up with Tatum, Brown and Porzingis respectively on defense. On the Boston side of things, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are about as good of a duo as you can have to deal with the offensive expertise of Doncic and Irving.
Dallas and Boston have both thrived in clutch minutes so far this postseason, and each team has All-Star closers that can take over a game. If Porzingis is back – and it seems like he is trending in that direction – both teams will also be as healthy as they’ve been all playoffs now that Maxi Kleber is back from a shoulder injury for Dallas.
So where does Boston’s advantage truly lie?
While the Celtics faced three banged-up teams to up the playoffs, they dominated a good chunk of their games, only losing on masterful Game 2 shooting performances by Miami (23-for-43 from 3 in Game 2) and Cleveland (13-for-28 from 3 in Game 2). In both of those games, Boston failed to make double-digit 3-pointers, but it has been one of the best shooting teams all season.
Doncic and Irving present a challenge the C’s haven’t faced yet, but to say Boston isn’t battle tested is flat out wrong.
The Celtics are 6-0 on the road in the playoffs and turned three games in the Eastern Conference Finals where their opponent – the Indiana Pacers – had a 90 percent win probability or higher, into wins. Regardless of who is on the floor, that’s impressive resilience from a team that has played in big games a lot in the Tatum-Brown era.
Dallas’ role players are going to have to knock down shots in this series – and they have for most of the playoffs – but Boston has more offensive firepower when Porzingis is in the lineup. A lot of people are forgetting they rolled through the last two rounds without KP’s 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds on the floor.
Moving Al Horford to a smaller role should combat the problems Boston had defending the pick-and-roll this postseason, and Porzingis (if healthy) gives Boston elite rim protection against lob threats like Gafford and Lively.
Dallas’ offense doesn’t have the ability to spread the floor like Boston’s does, and while I believe Doncic is the best player in this series, Boston has shown all season long that it is the best team.
I don’t think Dallas gets run out of the building like Boston did to the East, but given the Celtics’ ability to win on the road in this postseason – and past postseasons – with this core, I think they clean this up in six games.
Pick: Celtics in 6 (+475)
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The Dallas Mavericks and the Boston Celtics will face off in the 2024 NBA Finals. While many of the Celtics were on the team that went to the 2022 NBA Finals, some are making their Finals debut. The Mavericks, on the other hand are mostly made of Finals novices—with the very obvious exception of Kyrie Irving who hit one of the greatest shots in NBA Finals history against the Golden State Warriors in 2016.
Here are all the players making their NBA Finals debut this year.
Luka Dončić
It took him a few years, but he finally got here with the help of a ragtag bunch of castoffs that only a home PA announcer could love.
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Hardaway came to Dallas with Kristaps Porzingis and refused to leave. Tim Hardaway's son has now been in the NBA for over a decade and has been a valuable contributor off the bench for many of them. He's only played 13 minutes a night in 10 postseason games this year, but he'll be ready if they need him.
Jaden Hardy
Hardy has averaged just 4.2 points per game in his first postesason, but he's appeared in 14 of the Mavericks 17 playoff games and shot 40% from three. For a 21-year old taken in the second round of the draft who is only in his second season, that's a pretty good contribution.
Dwight Powell
Powell was drafted by the Charlotte Bobcats in June 2014. He was traded to Cleveland two weeks later and then traded to Boston in August. In December he was part of the trade that sent Rajon Rondo to Dallas. While Rondo was gone before the team was eliminated from the playoffs, Powell has been there ever since.
Josh Green
Green was Dallas's first round selection in 2020. He's become a regular contributor and has played in all 17 playoff games, averaging 17 minutes a game for the Mavericks this year.
Dereck Lively II
Lively slipped to the 12th pick in the 2023 draft where he was taken by the Oklahoma City Thunder. He was almost immediately flipped to Dallas, where he contributed whenever healthy. He's come off the bench throughout the playoffs to give the Mavericks an average of eight points, seven rebounds and a block every night.
Dante Exum
Exum was the fifth pick in the 2014 draft and spent his first five seasons in Utah before being traded to Cleveland. Then, he went and played in Spain for two years before returning to the NBA with Dallas. He's given them brief minutes off the bench in the postseason and provided one of the most exciting moments of the entire season.
Maxi Kleber
Kleber was undrafted and signed by the Mavericks in 2017. He's been a decent 3-point shooter and played 20+ minutes a game for the last six seasons. He suffered a shoulder injury in the first round, but returned for Game 5 against the Timberwolves.
A.J. Lawson
Lawson has spent time with the Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Timberwolves before signing with Dallas in 2022. He appeared in 42 games for the Mavericks this season.
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
Prosper was drafted by the Kings and immediately traded to the Mavericks for cash. He bounced between the Mavericks and Texas Legends as a rookie, averaging three points and two rebounds in 40 NBA games. He has played one minute in the playoffs.
PJ Washington
After many wasted years in Charlotte, he was traded to the Mavericks on February 8th. This was his first trip to the postseason and he and Daniel Gafford celebrated their ascension on Thursday night.
Daniel Gafford
Gafford spent time in Chicago and Washington before Dallas rescued him the same day they picked up Washington. They have both started every game for Dallas during the postseason.
Kristaps Porziņģis
What a journey. Drafted fourth overall by the New York Knicks in 2015, Porziņģis was considered a unicorn. After suffering an ACL injury, he was traded—along with Tim Hardaway Jr.—to the Dallas Mavericks where people thought he could be the perfect second banana to a young Luka Dončić. After two first round exits in Dallas he was traded to the Washington Wizards. Then, he was traded again to the Celtics ahead of this season and played really well, but injuries have again limited him in the postseason. He should make his Finals debut.
Oshae Brissett
Brissett made his postseason debut with the Celtics after starting his career with Toronto and Indiana. Despite the lack of experience, he managed to make headlines by tweeting and deleting a message to Miami Heat fans early in the postseason. He has appeared in two of the Celtics last three games.
Svi Mykhailiuk
The Ukranian was taken by the Los Angeles Lakers in the second round of the 2018 draft using a pick that the Denver Nuggets originally traded in 2013. He spent time in Detroit, Oklahoma City Thunder, Toronto, New York and Charlotte before signing with Boston in the offseason. His one basket during the playoffs was a 3-pointer.
Neemias Queta
The 7-foot Portugese center was taken by the Kings in 2021 and signed with Boston during the 2023 offseason. He's been on the floor twice for Boston during the postseason.
Xavier Tillman Sr.
The Grand Rapids native was drafted by the Sacramento Kings out of Michigan State before he was traded to Memphis. He played 30 minutes a game during the Grizzlies first round loss to the Lakers last year. He was traded to Boston at the trade deadline and is playing a bit during this Celtics run so he should see the court in the Finals.
Jaden Springer
Springer was drafted by the Philadelphia 76ers late in the first round of the 2021 draft. The Celtics acquired him at the trade deadline.
Jordan Walsh
Walsh was drafted in the second round of the 2023 draft by the Sacramento Kings and traded to Boston in exchange for Colby Jones. Walsh has appeared in nine regular season games and two postseason games so far.
