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Back the underdog Pirates vs. the Dodgers for a juicy payout

If you’ve followed my bets at Sports Illustrated, you know I love nothing more than plus-money action.

On the surface, backing the Pirates (28-32) vs. the Dodgers (38-24) looks pretty crazy. Los Angeles is the heavy favorite at -180, while Pittsburgh backers will be paid +158 if they pull off the upset.

No, rookie sensation Paul Skenes is not pitching for the Bucs. He got the win on Wednesday night. Neither is Jared Jones. He won on Tuesday. Instead, we will see Bailey Falter get the ball in Pittsburgh as the Pirates go for the sweep.

No one is buzzing about Falter the way they are about his teammates above, but those paying close attention know Falter has an ERA of just 2.56 across his last10 starts. That’s not too shabby.

Full disclosure: Falter is a lefty and the Los Angeles Dodgers mash lefties. They own the second-best OPS and ISO and the third-best SLG vs. southpaws in MLB (hence the -180). However, this team has been struggling offensively lately, averaging just 3.18 runs per game across the last two weeks of play.

Righty Walker Buehler gets the start for the Dodgers. Since returning in May from Tommy John surgery, Buehler has not returned to his previous form. Buehler has an ERA of 4.32 in his five starts this season, and in his two away starts, his ERA is 6.00.

Buehler isn’t generating whiffs, and his 2.16 home runs allowed per nine innings is among the worst in MLB. That could spell trouble if the Pirates continue hitting well.

The Pirates have averaged five runs per game across the past two weeks of play, the fifth-most in MLB. Bryan Reynolds is swinging a hot bat with three home runs and 14 RBI in that period.

Pittsburgh is 9-5 as the home underdog this season. That 64% win rate as the home underdog is the fifth-best in MLB.

The Dodgers are 5-5 in their last 10 games.

The Pirates are 6-4, including a 10-6 win vs. the Dodgers last night.

The Pirates bullpen is a wild card in the event, but no risk it, no biscuit. Who wants to take a walk on the wild side?

The Bet: Pirates ML +158 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

31 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Shota Imanaga’s odds for NL Rookie of the Year move into plus-money; Paul Skenes owns the second-shortest odds

In a stark departure from his usual form, Chicago Cubs rookie pitcher Shota Imanaga allowed seven earned runs to the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday and struck out only one across 4 ⅓ innings. It was the first time the lefty allowed more than three runs in a start this season and his ERA "ballooned" to 1.96 as a result.

That could be good for bettors.

Entering Wednesday's game, Imanaga was the odds-on favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year award at -125, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Thursday morning, his odds were +105.

Imanaga has been the heavy favorite for the award for some time now, and this move to plus money could be a chance to grab some value on the rookie.

More importantly, this uncharacteristic start highlights the volatility of backing pitchers for the award.

Pittsburgh Pirates phenom Paul Skenes has the next-best odds for the award at +210 at DraftKings. Olivia Dunne's boyfriend has been lighting up the gun with a fastball that averages 99.3 mph and a max velocity of 102 MPH. He has a 2.25 ERA and a 21-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 16 innings pitched in three starts.

While the velocity is impressive, there is risk to backing Skenes. Not only could his pitching style potentially be more conducive to injury, like a player he's compared to, former Cy Young award winner Stephen Strasberg whose rookie season was cut short for Tommy John surgery, Skenes plays for a team that is not expected to win many games. Skenes could be a generational talent, but I will wait to pull this ticket until there's better value.

Los Angeles Dodgers rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto has the next-best odds at +650, followed by another Pittsburgh starter, Jared Jones, at +1300.

Milwaukee Brewers third-baseman Joey Ortiz has the shortest odds among hitters at +1500, well ahead of teammate Jackson Chourio (+5000), who entered the season as a favorite.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.