Category: Phoenix Mercury

Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Sabrina Ionescu, Mercury-Wings)
9 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Sabrina Ionescu, Mercury-Wings)

Sunday brings a loaded WNBA slate of Commissioner’s Cup games before Game 2 of the NBA Finals tips off, giving us a chance to watch basketball all day long.

It doesn’t get much better than that, does it?

The Washington Mystics and New York Liberty kick off the action on Sunday after 3 p.m. EST, but that’s not the only game I’m betting on today.

There are two player props that I’m targeting for some veteran players, as well as a moneyline pick in the Dallas Wings-Phoenix Mercury matchup with Brittney Griner and Rebecca Allen back for the Mercury. 

Let’s break down each of these picks for a basketball-filled close to the weekend: 

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Phoenix Mercury Moneyline (-120) vs. Dallas Wings

The Wings have dropped four games in a row, and they lack the offensive firepower after Arike Ogunbowale to compete with a fully healthy Mercury team in my eyes. 

Satou Sabally and Natasha Howard being out has forced several Wings players to step up into bigger roles than they’d usually have. 

Even though Ogunbowale is scoring the ball at a high rate, she’s not shooting it efficiently, and neither are the Wings as a whole. They rank eighth in the league in effective field goal percentage, and that’s not the worst part of their advanced numbers in 2024. 

Dallas is also 10th in the league in defensive rating, which is a major concern given the weapons (Griner, Diana Taurasi, Kahleah Copper) that the Mercury have on offense. 

Now, I don’t want to act like Phoenix has been elite this season. It actually ranks 11th in defensive rating and 10th in net rating in 2024, but we have to remember that two starters were out for the first 10 games of the season.

The first game they came back? 

Phoenix promptly beat the best team in the Western Conference right now as a 5.5-point underdog. 

The Mercury have some big wins (over Minnesota and Las Vegas) and their defense should improve with Griner protecting the rim. Before Phoenix was running an extremely small four-guard lineup. 

I think this is a buy low spot on the Mercury before oddsmakers realize how deadly this team can be at full strength. 

Sabrina Ionescu OVER 18.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit

Sabrina Ionescu has been on fire as of late, scoring 22 or more points in four of her last six games, pushing her season-long scoring average to 17.8 points per game.

After a slow shooting start to the season, we’re starting to see what the two-time All-Star is truly capable of, and she’s coming off a huge 24-point game in a win over the Connecticut Sun on Saturday.

With Courtney Vandersloot (personal) likely out of the lineup for the second straight game on Sunday, Ionescu should play pretty heavy minutes against the Washington Mystics, who rank ninth in the league in defensive rating this season. 

Plus, Sloot usually initiates a ton of offense, so it’s likely that Ionescu will have the ball in her hands even more than usual in this game. Despite a poor 4-for-12 shooting game against the Mystics earlier this season, Ionescu is one of my favorite targets on Sunday. 

Nneka Ogwumike OVER 16.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

For the third time this season, Nneka Ogwumike and the Seattle Storm will match up with the Minnesota Lynx, and Ogwumike has dominated this matchup in 2024.

The veteran forward had 20 points on 10-of-18 shooting in the season opener before dropping 24 points on 8-of-12 shooting in the next matchup. On the season, Ogwumike is averaging 17.7 points per game, clearing 16.5 points in five of her seven appearances. 

She’s seen her scoring drop in her last three games (10, 17 and 12 points), but Ogwumike has still attempted double-digit shots in all but one game. 

Given her success against Minnesota this season, I’ll buy low on this prop at 16.5 after it was nearing 20.5 earlier in the season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Atlanta Dream, Chicago Sky, Connecticut Sun, Dallas Wings, Indiana Fever, Las Vegas Aces, Los Angeles Sparks, Minnesota Lynx, New York Liberty, Nneka Ogwumike, Phoenix Mercury, Sabrina Ionescu, Seattle Storm, Washington Mystics, WNBA
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Mercury vs. Wings Prediction, Odds and Key Players for WNBA Commissioner's Cup
9 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Mercury vs. Wings Prediction, Odds and Key Players for WNBA Commissioner’s Cup

The Phoenix Mercury are healthy for the first time this season after Brittney Griner and Rebecca Allen returned to action in the team’s upset win over Minnesota Lynx on Friday night.

Now, the Mercury find themselves as slight favorites on the road against the Dallas Wings, who are still down Satou Sabally, Natasha Howard and Jaelyn Brown due to injuries, which has led to a subpar 3-6 start to 2024. 

If there’s one thing going in the Wings’ favor, it’s that Phoenix has struggled on the road in 2024, going 1-5 straight up in six games. Can the now-healthy Mercury turn that narrative around on Sunday?

Let’s break down the odds, key players to watch and a best bet for this Western Conference clash.

Spread

Moneyline

Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mercury Injury Report

Wings Injury Report

Phoenix Mercury 

Brittney Griner: Phoenix’s star center returned from a toe injury to make her 2024 season debut in a win over the Minnesota Lynx on Friday night. Griner looked like her usual self, scoring 11 points, grabbing four boards and blocking a shot in just over 21 minutes of action. Griner gives the Mercury a true presence in the middle, and it allows them to move one of their great guards to the bench (in this case Sophie Cunningham), which gives them a lot more depth. 

Dallas Wings

Arike Ogunbowale: With Sabally and Howard out, Arike Ogunbowale has a huge load to carry for the Dallas Wings. The star guard is averaging 26.6 points per game – scoring 20 or more in every matchup this season – but she enters Sunday’s game shooting just 36.4 percent from the field. 

The Wings have dropped four games in a row, and they lack the offensive firepower after Ogunbowale to compete with a fully healthy Mercury team in my eyes.

Even though Ogunbowale is scoring the ball at a high rate, she’s not shooting it efficiently, and neither are the Wings as a whole. They rank eighth in the league in effective field goal percentage, and that’s not the worst part of their advanced numbers in 2024. 

Dallas is also 10th in the league in defensive rating, which is a major concern given the weapons (Griner, Diana Taurasi, Kahleah Copper) that the Mercury have on offense. 

Now, I don’t want to act like Phoenix has been elite this season. It actually ranks 11th in defensive rating and 10th in net rating in 2024, but we have to remember that two starters were out for the first 10 games of the season.

The first game they came back? 

Phoenix promptly beat the best team in the Western Conference right now as a 5.5-point underdog. 

The Mercury have some big wins (over Minnesota and Las Vegas) and their defense should improve with Griner protecting the rim. Before Phoenix was running an extremely small four-guard lineup. 

I think this is a buy low spot on the Mercury before oddsmakers realize how deadly this team can be at full strength. 

Pick: Mercury Moneyline (-120)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Arike Ogunbowale, Brittney Griner, Dallas Wings, Diana Taurasi, Kahleah Copper, Phoenix Mercury, Sophie Cunningham, WNBA
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Kahleah Copper Thanks Diana Taurasi for Classy Move Before Mercury's Game-Winner
8 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Kahleah Copper Thanks Diana Taurasi for Classy Move Before Mercury’s Game-Winner

Guard Kahleah Copper was the hero Friday night in the Phoenix Mercury's 81–80 victory over the Minnesota Lynx at Footprint Center.

The Mercury trailed 80–78 with 5.1 seconds left when Phoenix coach Nate Tibbets drew up a play for the potential game-winner. Guard Sophie Cunningham inbounded the ball to center Brittney Griner, who handed it off to Copper for an open look from three. Copper swished it. Ball game.

After the game, Copper revealed the original play Tibbetts drew up was designed for Taurasi to take the last shot. But the 41-year-old veteran told the coach that Copper should take it instead.

"It means a lot," Copper said of Taurasi's unselfish gesture. "What she is for this for this franchise, what she is for women's basketball, what she's done in her career. Clearly, she's a winner. She could have easily been like, 'O.K., cool, let's run it for me.' But it speaks to her character being unselfish and, like I said, being a winner."

Copper scored a game-high 34 points on 13-of-23 shooting against the Lynx. It was Copper's fourth 30-piece in 11 games this season and just four points shy of her career high of 38 points—achieved against the Atlanta Dream on May 18.

The Mercury (5–6) sit in fourth place in the Western Conference after 11 games. Winners of two of their last three games, the Mercury will visit the Dallas Wings on Sunday.

Diana Taurasi, Kahleah Copper, Phoenix Mercury, WNBA
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Diana Taurasi's Friends Call Her 'Sick in the Head' as She Returns for 20th Season
3 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Diana Taurasi’s Friends Call Her ‘Sick in the Head’ as She Returns for 20th Season

Diana Taurasi may never retire. Many expect her to retire after she plays in her sixth Olympics and 20th WNBA season this summer, but who really knows. Last year, as she turned 41, she averaged 16 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.6 rebounds, which are all numbers very close to her career averages. If she's slowing down, you haven't been able to see it in the box score.

It takes incredible gifts and hard work to maintain such a high level of play for such a prolonged period of time, but it also takes a certain mentality. The kind of mentality that earns you a legitimate comparison to Kobe Byrant. And most of all, in a way that makes loved ones tell you to retire while calling you a "psycho" and "sick in the head." According to CT Insider, those are the kinds of text messages Taurasi's been getting as she prepares for season 20.

Her response? "I am."

It's also the kind of thing you say about someone who is playing in her sixth Olympics. If Taurasi makes the team this summer, she'll break the record for most Olympic appearances by a basketball player. Between 1896 and 2022, only 211 people have made six or more Olympic appearances.

For a true psycho, that's just another milestone. Last August, Taurasi became the first player in WNBA history to eclipse the 10,000 career points mark. That puts her about 2,500 points ahead of second place, held by Hall of Famer Tina Thompson. It could be some time until any other woman matches that mark, let alone catches Taurasi after she adds another season's worth of points to her total.

So go ahead and keep telling her to retire. See how much farther that gets her.

Diana Taurasi, Olympic, Olympics, Phoenix Mercury, WNBA
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