Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Mookie Betts Headlines Great Matchup for Dodgers vs. Pirates)
Thursday's Major League Baseball slate brings a bunch of home run betting opportunities, with most attention on the Dodgers vs. Pirates matchup.
Los Angeles is one of the best hitting teams in baseball and particularly thrives against left-handed pitching. As the team gets set to face Bailey Falter, I'm focusing on NL MVP favorite Mookie Betts on today's daily dinger.
Here are three of my favorite home run prop bets for Thursday's card:
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Mookie Betts
Falter has a ton of regression coming his way, and Betts is the threat to hand it to him.
The left-hander has been crushed by hard contact, 23rd percentile hard-hit percentage, and is in the 16th percentile in terms of groundball contact percentage, per MLBStatcast.
Meanwhile, Betts has .333/.400/.506 against lefties. While he only has two home runs against lefty pitching, the wind is blowing out at more than 11 miles per hour at PNC Park on Thursday.
All indications is Betts is in for a big day at the dish, and I like his odds to go deep.
C.J. Abrams
Abrams is only hitting .246 this season, but most of his power comes against right-handed pitching, hitting six of nine home runs against those types of pitchers.
He'll face Reynaldo Lopez, who has struggled to contain lefty hitters this season. The regression-bound Lopez, who has an xERA nearly double his actual ERA (he has a 1.73 ERA vs. an xERA of 3.72), has allowed two home runs on the year, both to left-handed hitters.
Abrams has a favorable matchup and can cash in at long odds given some of the lingering regression looming for Lopez.
Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt isn't hitting the ball as much anymore, he is batting .223 on the year but is starting to hit the ball with more power, crushing five home runs in the month of May.
He will face soft-tossing Cal Quantril with the wind expected to be blowing out at 16 miles per hour at Busch Stadium. Goldschmidt is making hard contact at a high rate, ranking in the 73rd percentile. This is a game made for hitters on Thursday, I'll take Goldschmidt.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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