Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Bet Dodgers as Road Underdogs)

Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Bet Dodgers as Road Underdogs)

Saturday's MLB slate is headlined by the battle between the two favorites to win the World Series, the Dodgers against the Yankees in the Bronx.

The World Series preview in June takes center stage as all of Major League Baseball is in action on Saturday. Lucky for you, we have commentary on how to bet every game!

Keep reading to find out how we view each game on the Saturday slate.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Pick: Mets (+150)

There’s some variance baked into this game with it being played in London as part of MLB’s London Series. 

With a short center field fence and the wind projected to be blowing out at London Stadium, this can be a short outing for the likes of Ranger Suarez, who is driving most of the opening odds in this game. 

Pick: Twins (-120)

Simeon Woods Richardson continues to thrive for the Twins in his first full season with the club, posting a 3.04 ERA while showcasing excellent control, posting a walk rate of only six percent. The Minnesota starter will match up against Pirates opener Carmen Mlodzinski, who will put a ton of pressure on the Pittsburgh below average bullpen. 

With the pitching edge, including a better pen, I’ll take the Twins as short road favorites. 

Pick: Nationals (+120)

MacKenzie Gore has been outstanding this season, striking out a career best 27.3% of batters with a career low 3.57 ERA. 

The former Padres prized prospect is starting to see perform like it and now draws a Braves team that is struggling without Ronald Acuna Jr, who tore his ACL and is out for the year. Atlanta is hitting only .211 in June. 

Pick: Athletics (+135)

The Blue Jays remain a non starter for me as a road favorite, even against the lowly A’s. 

Kevin Gausman has been overvalued all season, and Toronto is only 6-6 in his 12 starts. The right hander has an ERA of 4.60 while his xERA is far worse at 5.26, per MLBStatcast. He is striking out only 22% of batters, the lowest rate since 2018, and remains a worthy fade. 

Pick: Brewers (-165)

Freddy Peralta has been outstanding this season, striking out nearly a third of the batters he has faced while keeping his walk rate below eight percent, about the big league average. 

It’ll be tough sledding for the Tigers lineup that is bottom third in Major League Baseball in OPS while the Brewers are far better at generating run support for its pitching staff, fourth in the same metric. 

Pick: Royals (+115)

The Royals rallied to win 10-9 on Friday, and the team remains a great bet at home, 23-10 at Kauffman Stadium this season. 

Kansas City will have a stiff test against Luis Castillo, but the Royals ability to generate power is notable considering Castillo has allowed a barrel percentage in the 28th percentile this season, per MLBStatcast, and allows a high fly ball rate of over 60%. 

Pick: Rays (+115)

Both starters have missed time this season, with different results, but I’m betting on it going in a different direction on Saturday. 

Kyle Bradish of the Orioles has made six starts and has been pitching the best baseball of his career. He is striking out 32% of batters, way above his career average, while allowing a hard-hit percentage of only 25%, 99th percentile in the big leagues. 

While it’s a fantastic start for a league average pitcher, regression will come for him soon. 

I’ll try here, on the road against a Rays team that has pop in the lineup and a pitcher who has a high ceiling in Taj Bradley. The hard throwing right hander hasn’t had good results this season, his xERA is hovering around 7.00, but i believe he can outperform expectations given the Orioles have the third fewest walks on the year. 

Pick: Reds (-120)

The Cubs’ skid has continued while the Reds have won six straight, so I’ll side with the hot home team. 

It also helps that Chicago is bottom 10 in OPS against left handers this season as the team faces Reds’ starter Andrew Abbott. 

Pick:Red Sox (-205)

Chicago snapped a 13 game skid on Friday, but I’m not counting on two wins in a row. 

Pick: Rockies (+160)

Can Kyle Gibson justify this price tag? The veteran pitcher has a 3.69 ERA that is supported by a 4.99 xERA with a walk rate hovering around 10%. 

For what it’s worth, Ryan Feltner pitches better on the road than at the hitter friendly Coors Field, so I can get behind him outperforming expectations. 

Pick: Dodgers (+105)

The two best teams in baseball continue its weekend series, and I’ll side with the road underdog given the Yankees’ overall fitness with Juan Soto’s status in doubt for the foreseeable future. 

If New York’s lineup isn’t at its best, it’ll be tough to keep up with the Dodgers, who have the highest OPS against left handed pitching this season. 

Pick: Guardians (-160)

Cleveland is the far more talented side here and should have little issue snagging a road win. 

Ben Lively’s strikeout rate is at a career high of 23% and the Guardians have the clear offensive edge, 11th in OPS against the Marlins, who check in 29th. 

Pick: Diamondbacks (+125)

I’ll take Arizona to stay hot in June, winners of five of six, at an underdog price. 

Ryne Nelson isn’t a strikeout-focused pitcher, only 14.9%, but he has limited his walks to only six percent, which is impactful against a Padres team that is reliant on drawing walks to get runners on base. Nelson’s ERA is also due to come down from his mark of 5.44, with an xERA of 4.77. 

Pick: Astros (-165)

Angels starter Tyler Anderson has been among the best pitchers in baseball, but I expect a tough summer for the veteran left hander. 

He has an ERA of 2.37, which is staggering to see given some of his other numbers, including a 16% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate. Meanwhile, his xERA is 4.49, making him ripe for a few blow ups as the season continues. 

I’ll count on Saturday against a Houston lineup that is top five in OPS against southpaws. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Every MLB Team's World Series Odds Through First Two Months of 2024 Season

Every MLB Team’s World Series Odds Through First Two Months of 2024 Season

We're officially more than two months into the 2024 Major League Baseball season so it's time to take a step back and take a look at the futures markets.

What teams have underperformed? What teams are a surprising contender? Are there any teams we should bet on now or are there a few we should stay away from?

In this article, we're going to take a look at the latest World Series odds for all 32 teams. Let's dive into it. All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Dodgers, despite underperforming by their standards, are still set as the World Series favorites at +260, which is an implied probability of 27.78%. There's no denying the talent this roster has and they're still playing well enough to have a hefty lead on the NL West.

The New York Yankees have been the best team in baseball through the first two months. Their pitching has been sharp and their offense, specifically the play of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, has been unbelievable. If I were to pick one team to win it all at this point of the season, I'd pick the Yankees.

The Phillies have the best record in the National League at 44-19. They have a great chance to yet again go on a deep playoff run.

The injury bug has bitten the Braves, most notably Ronald Acuna Jr., who will miss the rest of the 2024 season. There's still plenty of time for them to rally and there's a reason they're still fourth on the odds list to win it all.

The Orioles are still well behind the Yankees in the AL East, but at 39-22, they'll be back in the playoffs once again.

The Seattle Mariners lead the AL West, but their offense needs to wake up if they want to be true World Series contenders in 2024.

The AL Central was supposed to be the worst division in baseball, but as of writing this article, four of the five teams are at .500 or above, including the Minnesota Twins at 33-29.

The Houston Astros don't look like the same contender they once were. Their metrics are still respectable and their offense has woken up in recent weeks. If there's one team that has got off to a slow start that I could see getting hot in the second half of the season, it's the Astros.

The Cleveland Guardians are eye-popping 40-21 as of writing this article. While that's impressive, I wouldn't be surprised if he saw some regression from this team in the second half of the season.

The Milwaukee Brewers lead the NL Central and have had one of the better offenses through the first two months of the season. They are a team to watch in the National League.

It's been a bad start to the season for the defending World Series champions. Their offense has been middling and their bullpen continues to cost them games. They need to find a way to turn the ship around or they're going to fail to make the playoffs.

The Kansas City Royals might be the single most surprising team in the Majors this season at 37-26. Not only has their record been good, but they have the metrics to back it up. Between strong offensive statistics and more than one Cy Young candidate in their rotation, the Royals could be a Cinderella story in 2024.

The Blue Jays may be the most disappointing team in the Majors. Despite looking like a talented squad on paper, their offense has been without teeth and their bullpen has been abysmal. On top of that, their rotation hasn't been nearly as good as it was last year. Time is running out for Toronto.

I feel sorry for Mets fans. It's been a disaster of a season and they're already 16.5 games back from the Phillies in the NL East.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Time to Buy Low on Pablo Lopez?)

Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Time to Buy Low on Pablo Lopez?)

Thursday is a travel day for a handful of teams in the big leagues, but we still have baseball starting in the afternoon.

With about a third of the season finished, it's time to look for some buy-low candidates and I have my eye on Twins' starter Pablo Lopez, who is due for a big uptick in production as the calendar flips to June. The matchup is daunting against the surging Yankees, but are the Twins live for an upset?

I have betting break downs for each game on the Thursday MLB card below!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

The Orioles are the best-hitting team in baseball against left-handed pitching, making this is a tough ask for the Blue Jays, who will start Yusei Kikuchi on Thursday afternoon. 

Yes, Kikuch has lowered his walk rate to a career-low of five percent, but he still allows hard contact at a 43% clip, ranking in the 19th percentile, per MLBStatcast, a ripe matchup for the Orioles loaded lineup. 

After a rain out on Wednesday, we get a Thursday meeting between these two, and I’m looking to fade Royal starter Brady Singer. 

Brady Singer has 2.63 ERA but is due a ton of regression with an xERA of 4.35. 

Against a Guardians lineup that can put the ball in play at an elite level, 11th in OPS, I’ll back the home favorite. 

Bryan Woo has looked the part in five starts this season, posting a 1.30 ERA as he continues to be stretched out. Woo is striking out fewer batters, down to 18% from 25% as a rookie, but is walking only two percent of hitters while limiting posting an elite blend of fastball and off-speed pitches to avoid blowup innings. 

With limited path to base runners, I struggle to see the A’s keeping up on Thursday. 

Los Angeles is the second-best hitting team against lefties this season and draws a favorable matchup against Bailey Falter of the Pirates, who has seen his strikeout rate diminish to 15% this season. 

Falter won’t be able to get around the vaunted bats of Los Angeles, and somebody is due for a big-hitting day against him with his xERA sitting far higher than his actual ERA (3.22 vs. 4.73).

I’ll take a stab at the Nationals as home underdogs on the premise of a summer drop-off from Reynaldo Lopez, the Braves starter. 

Lopez has a 1.73 ERA, but his xERA is far higher at 3.72. He has been crushed by hard contact (42nd percentile) and his offspeed pitches are ineffective (17th percentile in terms of run value), and I believe the Nationals can have success. This is worth a flier on a home underdog. 

Pablo Lopez’s numbers don’t indicate that he’s pitching at a high level, but he may be due for a big jump statistically based on his pitching. He has a 4.84 ERA despite posting a career-best walk rate. He has an xERA of 2.99 despite posting a 73rd percentile xBA, and I believe that he will turn it around soon. 

I’ll fade the red-hot Yankees with a pitcher that is ripe to outperform expectations. 

The Cubs slide in play continues, and this matchup doesn’t set up well for them as the team heads to Cincinnati to face the Reds with emerging arm Hunter Greene on the mound. 

Chicago is 29th in OPS over the last 30 days while the Reds check in eighth. Further, Cubs’ starter Javier Assad may be due for a drop in play after a strong start to the year. He has a 2.27 ERA that is supported by a 3.72 xERA.

Sonny Gray has been on a tear this season. He has a 3.00 ERA while striking out a career-best 33.5% of batters. Even when hitters are putting the ball in play, it's soft contact (66th percentile in hard-hit percentage). 

At home, the Cardinals should have little issue getting past the Rockies. 

Tanner Houck is putting up All-Star numbers for Boston this season, posting a 1.85 ERA, and now faces the worst offense in Major League Baseball in Chicago, with the lowest OPS. 

I’m not backing an upset given the lack of talent for the White Sox. 

This is a fade of Randy Vasquez of the Padres, who has a 5.41 xERA and is walking nearly 10% of batters. This is problematic against the Diamondbacks, a team that is top 10 in walks this season and eighth in on-base percentage. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Rays' Richie Palacios Equals Brother, Uncle With First Career Walk-Off Hit

Rays’ Richie Palacios Equals Brother, Uncle With First Career Walk-Off Hit

Before Thursday, Tampa Bay Rays second baseman Richie Palacios was the low man on the totem pole of clutch family members.

Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Josh Palacios—Richie's brother—had clubbed a walk-off home run against the Philadelphia Phillies on July 30, 2023. Former Kansas City Royals catcher Rey Palacios, Richie's uncle, also owned a walk-off grand slam against the Boston Red Sox on May 14, 1990.

Now, Richie has joined the club.

Palacios's walk-off single gave the Rays a 6-5 victory over the Oakland Athletics Thursday—and gave Palacios, at last, the first walk-off of his three-year career.

"I was doing an interview the other day, and my brother has a walk-off and my uncle has a walk-off. And I said in the interview, ‘Better get a walkoff before this becomes a family thing.’ I didn’t know it was going to come (Thursday), but it is exciting that it did," Palacios told reporters postgame via Kristie Ackert of The Tampa Bay Times.

Palacios is slashing .262/.360/.369 for Tampa Bay this season with four home runs and 12 RBIs in 48 games.

Rangers' Marcus Semien Crushes a Home Run Off First Pitch vs. A's

Rangers’ Marcus Semien Crushes a Home Run Off First Pitch vs. A’s

Texas Rangers second baseman Marcus Semien started off Tuesday's game against the Oakland Athletics with a bang.

The first pitch thrown to Semien by A's pitcher Ross Stripling was a 91-mph fastball. Semien crushed the ball 401 feet to start the game, a home run off of the first pitch. It's always exciting in baseball when this somewhat rare feat happens.

There were audible cheers from the audience as Semien rounded the bases even though the game was being played in Oakland. It must've been exciting for both sides of fans.

This wasn't even the biggest highlight for Semien in the early part of Tuesday's game. The top of the second inning brought 10 more runs from Rangers players, including Semien hitting a single to record another RBI. Semien later scored off a walk as the bases were loaded. Then he hit a double to bring home two more runners later in the inning.

All he needs left in the game is a triple to hit a cycle, and that was just through the second inning.

Quite the start for Semien and his team.

American League Rookie Roundup: Colton Cowser Leads Orioles' Youth Movement

American League Rookie Roundup: Colton Cowser Leads Orioles’ Youth Movement

Anyone who’s ever started a new job knows the feeling. You’re new to the area, perhaps you don’t know the workspace layout very well. Coworkers’ names prove elusive. Maybe you do something mildly embarrassing to leave a shaky early impression—for example, in the case of Baltimore Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser, throw away a treasured keepsake of your nine-time All-Star closer.

There’s a reason they call them rookie mistakes: It’s because rookies make them. A lot of them.

But fear not, newbies, because the 2024 season is now more than a month old, giving plenty of opportunities to shake off the early butterflies and settle into your new lives as big leaguers. To mark the occasion, we present to you the first edition of Sports Illustrated's Rookie Roundup. Each week, we’ll check in on the latest from the game’s standout first-year players, alternating between the American and National Leagues.

The idea is to shine a spotlight on the best (and most entertaining) happenings from rookies far and wide. We’ll cover the headliners, of course—and with the steady influx of young talent, there are plenty of already big names to track—but also aim to uncover hidden gems making names for themselves as the season progresses.

This week’s focus is simple: We’ll highlight the five best AL rookies so far, with the NL’s top five coming next week. All of the players considered have, of course, made their fair share of rookie blunders. But they’ve made up for them (and then some) with their stellar play to this point.

1. Colton Cowser, OF, Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore’s organizational rebuild (read: tank-a-thon) from the late-2010’s resulted in the franchise picking in the top-five of the draft in four consecutive years from ’19 to ’22. One of those picks turned into Cowser, whose 26-game debut last season (with a .115 batting average and zero home runs) left a lot to be desired. Named to the Opening Day roster by manager Brandon Hyde after posting a 1.136 OPS during spring training, Cowser seized an everyday role by the season’s second week and hasn’t looked back.

Cowser’s hitting profile is a modern twist on the "three true outcomes" template: lots of walks and strikeouts, sure, but plenty of hard contact (rather than merely home runs). His 34.3% strikeout rate is the eighth-highest among players with at least 90 plate appearances, and his 38.1% whiff rate is the seventh-highest. But a quick glance at his Baseball Savant page shows plenty of red bars, as Cowser’s barrel rate, hard-hit rate and expected slugging percentage all rank in the 90th percentile or better. Combine all that with a 10.1% walk rate and excellent defense, and Cowser could follow in Gunnar Henderson’s footsteps and make it back-to-back Rookie of the Year awards for the Orioles.

Oakland Athletics pitcher Mason Miller

Miller has struck out 29 batters in 14 1/3 innings so far this season.

Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports

2. Mason Miller, RP, Oakland Athletics

If they gave trophies to teams for putting together five-and-a-half weeks of mediocre play when almost everybody in the baseball world expected nothing short of total ineptitude, the Athletics would get one. The franchise is in an abysmal position, with an owner resolved to move the team to Las Vegas and coming off consecutive 100-plus loss seasons. While the roster is low on household names (an A’s staple as old as time itself), the team has outperformed projections to this point with a 17–18 mark, and Miller’s been a key reason.

A five-year college career spent at Division III Waynesburg (with one season at Gardner-Webb) didn’t keep Miller from being drafted by Oakland in the third round in 2021. He logged just 28 2/3 minor league innings from ’21 to ’23 before debuting in April of last year. Miller pitched in 10 games for the A’s last season—six of them starts—and impressed enough to make the roster out of spring training this season as a part of the bullpen.

That’s an extremely truncated acceleration timeline, which is sort of fitting given how quickly Miller has ascended into becoming the league’s most dominant closer. His fastball averages (yes, averages) 100.7 mph, and he’s struck out 29 of the 54 batters he’s faced this season. Miller is a perfect 8-for-8 in save chances, helping Oakland to a 7–5 record in one-run games. His FIP currently sits at -0.06, and while it’s sure to climb out of the red eventually, Miller’s already established himself as one of baseball’s most electric pitchers.

3. Wilyer Abreu, OF, Boston Red Sox

Abreu earned himself a late August call-up in 2023 but retained his rookie status coming into ‘24. He hit well in his debut, and has built on last year’s showing to quickly become one of Boston’s most important pieces so far.

Abreu ranks fourth among AL rookies in runs scored (16) and RBIs (13), adding strong defense in right field and speed on the base paths, going a perfect 5-for-5 in stolen base attempts. If there’s a reason to temper optimism a bit, it’s the fact that his .297/.381/.473 slash line is buoyed by a .403 BABIP. Statcast paints a far less enthusiastic view of Abreu, with an expected batting average of .225. Even if regression is on the way, he’s shown enough to solidify promise as a bonafide everyday player.

New York Yankees pitcher Luis Gil

Gil gave up just two hits and no runs with five strikeouts in his last start against the Orioles.

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

4. Luis Gil, SP, New York Yankees

New York’s rotation has collectively risen to the occasion in reigning Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole’s absence, and Gil has more than done his part in the efforts.

The 25-year-old has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his six starts. His most impressive outing was also his most recent: 6 1/3 shutout innings against the Orioles on Wednesday. Gil averages 11.61 strikeouts per nine innings, fourth-most among pitchers who have thrown at least 30 frames. Walks have been an issue, though one that’s trending in the right direction: He gave up 17 free passes in 19 2/3 innings in his first four outings, but has allowed only three in his last two starts.

5. James McArthur, RP, Kansas City Royals

A Royals team coming off of a 106-loss campaign has been one of 2024’s biggest surprises so far, with a 20–15 record and the second-highest run differential (plus-44) in the AL. There’s plenty of credit to go around the roster, but McArthur’s emergence as a lockdown closer (Sunday’s blown save against the Rangers notwithstanding) deserves recognition.

McArthur’s best asset is his control. He’s walked only two of the 66 batters he’s faced so far, compared to 18 strikeouts. Missing bats is also a strength, as McArthur has a whiff rate of 34.9%. Sunday’s meltdown was his first blown save since taking over as the team’s closer, but even then, his strengths were on display. He drew 18 swings on his 30 pitches—with eight of them whiffs—and he didn’t walk a batter. McArthur spent six years in the Philadelphia Phillies’ system working primarily as a starter before being traded to the Royals in 2023, beginning his transition to the bullpen. He seems to have found his rhythm there, and has so far played a crucial role in one of MLB’s best success stories.

Athletics Drub Hapless Marlins 20-4 to Unexpectedly Reach .500 for Season

Athletics Drub Hapless Marlins 20-4 to Unexpectedly Reach .500 for Season

Off the field, the Oakland Athletics are a mess, pushing through a relocation to Las Vegas unwanted by nearly all except boss John Fisher and MLB's other 29 owners.

On the field, to the shock of the baseball world, the Athletics are doing just fine.

On Saturday, Oakland raised eyebrows on a crowded sports day by destroying the Miami Marlins 20–4 at the Oakland Coliseum—a win that moved the team to .500 on the season.

Before 7,809 fans, the Athletics jumped on the Marlins with 10 runs in the third inning to take a 12–0 lead. The offense never slowed down, racking up 21 hits on the day. Seven players had multi-hit efforts.

Key contributors for the Athletics included pitcher Paul Blackburn, who threw seven innings of one-run ball to move to 3–1 on the season, and designated hitter Brent Rooker, who drove in five of Oakland's 20 runs.

While the Athletics moved within a game and a half of first place in the AL West, Miami dropped to an abysmal 9–26.