All eyes in the baseball world will be firmly set on this weekend's interleague series between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, which could very well be a preview of this season's World Series.
The Yankees have looked like the best team in the Majors so far, sporting a spotless 45-19 record while leading all teams in a plethora of metrics. Game 1 of the three-game set is on Friday night.
Let's dive into everything you need to know to bet on tonight's game.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: The Dodgers' pitching staff, including their starter for Game 1 Yoshinobu Yamamoto is going to have their hands full this weekend. The Yankees lead the Majors in OPS this season at .776 while also rocking a stunning .825 OPS over the last 30 days. Strong pitching is going to be a must if they want to win Game 1 tonight.
Yankees
Aaron Judge: Aaron Judge has been on an unbelievable roll of late. Over the last 30 days, he has a batting average of .387, an OPS of 1.491, and he's hit 14 dingers. He's the key to every game for the Yankees moving forward.
Juan Soto is going through an injury scare right now, but that shouldn't scare us bettors away from taking the Yankees as home underdogs.
The Yankees have statistically been the best team in baseball this season so I'm surprised they're this big of underdogs to the Dodgers at home on Friday night. Over the last 30 days, the Yankees have an eye-popping OPS of .825 while the Dodgers have an OPS of just .708, which ranks 14th in the Majors. I'll take New York at home.
Cody Peteet may be still of an unknown entity for the Yankees, but he's looked solid in his first two starts, giving up just three earned runs in 11.0 innings. If he can keep that going tonight, New York is going to be a great underdog bet.
Pick: Yankees +120
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Friday features a jam-packed slate of Major League Baseball action, and there are plenty of ways to bet in the prop market with so many teams playing.
I’ve narrowed down my picks for Friday’s slate to just three, with two starting pitchers and one red-hot hitter getting the nod.
The game of the night on Friday is likely between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, and Yankees slugger Aaron Judge may need to have a big game after Juan Soto exited Thursday night’s contest with left forearm discomfort.
Judge is one of the three players I’m targeting tonight, so let’s dive into the picks for June 7:
Atlanta Braves lefty Chris Sale is coming off a rough outing to open June, allowing eight earned runs in four innings against the A’s, but I think he’s due for a bounce-back showing against the Washington Nationals on Friday.
Sale was terrific in May, allowing just two earned runs across five starts (32.0 innings of work), so I’m not reading too much into his clunker to start June.
The Braves are 8-3 in Sale’s 11 starts this season, and he’s earned the decision in every win, posting an 8-1 record. Prior to his last outing, Sale had earned the win in seven consecutive starts.
Rather than laying the price on the Braves moneyline, I like taking Sale to earn the win against a Washington team that struggles against left-handed pitching, ranking 27th in MLB in OPS.
Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Walks (-125)
Judge and Soto have been the best duo in baseball this season, but if Soto misses this game – or extended time – Judge may see less pitches to hit going forward.
As it is, Judge has drawn at least one walk in five straight games, and he’s racked 52 total walks in 64 games so far in 2024.
Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto doesn’t walk a ton of hitters (just 14 in 12 starts), but I can’t imagine he’ll look to attack Judge every at bat with Soto likely out of the lineup on Friday.
Judge has been great at drawing walks and getting on base for years, so I’ll gladly take him at this price on Friday.
Griffin Canning UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Los Angeles Angels starter Griffin Canning has a tough matchup on Friday, as he’s taking on the Houston Astros, who strikeout a league-low 6.83 times per game this season.
Canning has cleared 4.5 strikeouts in just four of his 12 outings in 2024, and he struck out just two Houston batters across five innings in his first outing against the Stros this season.
Overall, Canning ranks in just the 13th percentile in strikeout percentage this season, so I don’t see him racking up a huge number on this prop against the least strikeout prone offense in the league.
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New York Yankees fans were left perplexed after Juan Soto did not return following the rain delay during Thursday's game against the Minnesota Twins.
The team later announced that Soto was removed from the game due to left forearm soreness.
On Thursday night, manager Aaron Boone told reporters that Soto was evaluated during the rain delay by Dr. Christopher Ahmad. They decided it was best not to push it when it came to the ailment, prompting the team to keep him out of the game when play resumed, according to Meredith Marakovits of the YES Network.
Boone noted that Soto's been dealing with soreness in the forearm for around a week, and the superstar outfielder is set to undergo imaging on the injury on Friday.
Soto addressed the injury with reporters Thursday evening and noted that he's been trying to "grind through" the pain for almost two weeks. He added that the soreness he feels in his forearm "doesn't stop [him] with anything baseball-wise."
"I've just been grinding through it"
Juan Soto details his forearm soreness and how it doesn't "stop him with anything baseball-wise" pic.twitter.com/jeWnngs3qU
New York has won eight straight games and have swept the Twins and San Francisco Giants consecutively. They begin a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday, though it's unclear if Soto will be available.
In three plate appearances on Thursday, Soto went 0-for-1 with two walks and a run. He's slashing .318/.424/.603 with 17 home runs and 53 RBI in his first season in the Bronx.
Thursday is a travel day for a handful of teams in the big leagues, but we still have baseball starting in the afternoon.
With about a third of the season finished, it's time to look for some buy-low candidates and I have my eye on Twins' starter Pablo Lopez, who is due for a big uptick in production as the calendar flips to June. The matchup is daunting against the surging Yankees, but are the Twins live for an upset?
I have betting break downs for each game on the Thursday MLB card below!
The Orioles are the best-hitting team in baseball against left-handed pitching, making this is a tough ask for the Blue Jays, who will start Yusei Kikuchi on Thursday afternoon.
Yes, Kikuch has lowered his walk rate to a career-low of five percent, but he still allows hard contact at a 43% clip, ranking in the 19th percentile, per MLBStatcast, a ripe matchup for the Orioles loaded lineup.
After a rain out on Wednesday, we get a Thursday meeting between these two, and I’m looking to fade Royal starter Brady Singer.
Brady Singer has 2.63 ERA but is due a ton of regression with an xERA of 4.35.
Against a Guardians lineup that can put the ball in play at an elite level, 11th in OPS, I’ll back the home favorite.
Bryan Woo has looked the part in five starts this season, posting a 1.30 ERA as he continues to be stretched out. Woo is striking out fewer batters, down to 18% from 25% as a rookie, but is walking only two percent of hitters while limiting posting an elite blend of fastball and off-speed pitches to avoid blowup innings.
With limited path to base runners, I struggle to see the A’s keeping up on Thursday.
Los Angeles is the second-best hitting team against lefties this season and draws a favorable matchup against Bailey Falter of the Pirates, who has seen his strikeout rate diminish to 15% this season.
Falter won’t be able to get around the vaunted bats of Los Angeles, and somebody is due for a big-hitting day against him with his xERA sitting far higher than his actual ERA (3.22 vs. 4.73).
I’ll take a stab at the Nationals as home underdogs on the premise of a summer drop-off from Reynaldo Lopez, the Braves starter.
Lopez has a 1.73 ERA, but his xERA is far higher at 3.72. He has been crushed by hard contact (42nd percentile) and his offspeed pitches are ineffective (17th percentile in terms of run value), and I believe the Nationals can have success. This is worth a flier on a home underdog.
Pablo Lopez’s numbers don’t indicate that he’s pitching at a high level, but he may be due for a big jump statistically based on his pitching. He has a 4.84 ERA despite posting a career-best walk rate. He has an xERA of 2.99 despite posting a 73rd percentile xBA, and I believe that he will turn it around soon.
I’ll fade the red-hot Yankees with a pitcher that is ripe to outperform expectations.
The Cubs slide in play continues, and this matchup doesn’t set up well for them as the team heads to Cincinnati to face the Reds with emerging arm Hunter Greene on the mound.
Chicago is 29th in OPS over the last 30 days while the Reds check in eighth. Further, Cubs’ starter Javier Assad may be due for a drop in play after a strong start to the year. He has a 2.27 ERA that is supported by a 3.72 xERA.
Sonny Gray has been on a tear this season. He has a 3.00 ERA while striking out a career-best 33.5% of batters. Even when hitters are putting the ball in play, it's soft contact (66th percentile in hard-hit percentage).
At home, the Cardinals should have little issue getting past the Rockies.
Tanner Houck is putting up All-Star numbers for Boston this season, posting a 1.85 ERA, and now faces the worst offense in Major League Baseball in Chicago, with the lowest OPS.
I’m not backing an upset given the lack of talent for the White Sox.
This is a fade of Randy Vasquez of the Padres, who has a 5.41 xERA and is walking nearly 10% of batters. This is problematic against the Diamondbacks, a team that is top 10 in walks this season and eighth in on-base percentage.
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The Minnesota Twins paid a visit to the Bronx for a series against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium which got underway on Tuesday.
It marked the first time Twins shortstop Royce Lewis played at the renowned ballpark, and he opted to pay tribute to his all-time favorite player during his first at-bat of the game, legendary Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter.
After stepping into the batter's box, Lewis replicated Jeter's routine, tapping the tip of his bat into the dirt while lifting his right arm up as he set his feet.
Lewis broke down the significance of Jeter to him ahead of Wednesday's tilt.
"It was just a personal thing I wanted to do. Pay a ode to such a mentor and a great player, and a well respected player around the league. And for me, my favorite player, and I was lucky enough to be able to do that in my first game in Yankee Stadium," Lewis said.
Royce Lewis paid tribute to Derek Jeter in his first at bat last night.
"Thank you for everything you did for the game of baseball. Thank you for being such a great player on and off the field. Really well respected, and it meant a lot to me and it formed me to be the man I am today," said Lewis when asked if he'd have a message for Jeter if he were standing in front of him.
Despite a Minnesota loss, Lewis managed to make a memory in his first trip to the iconic stadium, launching a solo home run during the seventh inning, his second homer of the year.
Last year, a promotional giveaway item featured Aaron Judge's already iconic No. 99 on the back of a basketball jersey, and fans went wild for it. This year, the New York Yankees wisely went back to the same giveaway with two big changes: This year, it's white with blue pinstripes (last year's giveaway was blue with white stripes) and it features their newest star: Juan Soto.
The giveaway is on Wednesday this week for the team's night game against the Minnesota Twins, but before Tuesday's game, Soto was doing his part to generate some excitement for it, as he was seen warming up in the jersey:
The Yankees had a feeling Soto would be good enough to create some hype for this giveaway, but even the most optimistic projection may not have had him being this good so early in the season. His OPS+ is 189 going into Tuesday night's series opener, bested only by one player in MLB: Aaron Judge (200).
While Soto undoubtedly maxes out the swag factor of such a jersey, fans are excited to try their hand at looking just as cool wearing it:
The giveaway is sponsored by Canon and limited to the first 18,000 guests on Wednesday, according to the Yankees. Save for a George Costanza bobblehead later this season, there may be no giveaway as anticipated as this one in the Bronx this season.
Armageddon awaits. Likely for the first time since the 1978 World Series, the New York Yankees will host the Los Angeles Dodgers this weekend with each team claiming first place.
The Yankees have the better offense, the better starting pitching and the better bullpen. The Dodgers have the better defense. Most surprisingly, we all know which team has the better 1-2-3 at the top of the lineup. And it’s not the one with the three Most Valuable Players that even before a box of game balls was cracked open had people scrambling to compare them to the greatest trios ever to top a lineup.
Step aside Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. You have been upstaged by Anthony Volpe, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge.
First, the cold, hard facts:
R
H
HR
RBI
Total Bases
Avg.
SLG
Volpe, Soto, Judge
131
207
44
125
394
.298
Betts, Ohtani, Freeman
119
215
30
105
366
.311
Second, one 100 mph pitch that helps explains why the Yankees’ trio is better: an 0-and-1 cut fastball to Volpe on Sunday from San Francisco Giants closer Camilo Doval, who had held righthanded batters to a .098 average this year. With one on and one out in the ninth, Doval was holding a two-run lead and a 91.7%-win probability. If he dismissed Volpe, Doval could avoid Judge, whom the Giants had retired only four times in 12 tries in his Bay Area homecoming.
Last season Doval could have exploited multiple holes in Volpe’s swing to put him away. Caught up in an analytical-fueled quest to get balls airborne to the pull side, Volpe swung uphill with too much head movement. He could not hit top-rail fastballs (.125), inside fastballs (.195) or breaking pitches (.148).
Doval was about to find this out. He threw a 99.9 mph cutter buried so far inside that it was off the plate. No matter. Volpe 2.0 kept his hands inside the ball and with a short, quick lash carved the pitch into the right-centerfield gap for an RBI triple. He could not do that last year.
With that one swing, another Yankees win was set in motion. Two pitches later, Soto clobbered a high fastball for a go-ahead homer.
A high fastball? Is anybody paying attention? I am astonished how teams keep thinking they can get high fastballs past Soto. This is all you need to know about how to pitch Soto:
Soto by Fastball Height in Zone This Season
Avg.
SLG
HR
Top Third
.459
1.054
7
Middle Third
.447
1.128
8
Bottom Third
.188
.313
0
That’s 15 of his 17 home runs this year resulting from fastballs in the zone belt high or higher. His past 35 home runs off fastballs in the zone have all been middle-up. Soto hasn’t hit a low fastball for a home run in almost a year—since June 14, 2023.
Judge, who is hitting everything, walked, stole second and scored on a Giancarlo Stanton double. In a span of just a dozen pitches, the Yankees scored four times and turned what was about to be a 5–3 loss into a 7–5 win.
Sure, Judge is slugging .658 and Soto has a .417 OBP and Stanton is on pace for 37 homers … all impressive, but … they’ve all been there, done that. All have been better than that in past years. Volpe is the difference maker, slashing .284/.352/.440 a year after going .209/.283/.383. He and Jurickson Profar of the San Diego Padres are the most improved hitters in baseball. Volpe gives the Yankees a leadoff hitter with speed and that kind of OBP for the first time since Derek Jeter in 2009. He creates traffic for Soto and Judge as an elite baserunner (95th percentile).
Volpe’s transformation is extraordinary. Adopting a more traditional, 1980s-type style in the batter’s box, Volpe is embracing groundballs (up from 41% to 52%), hitting the other way (23% to 32%) and putting the ball in play (he has cut his strikeout rate from 28% to 21%)—qualities that are not stressed enough at a time when batting average is the fourth lowest in history (.240).
Try to find another hitter who cut his pull percentage anywhere near what Volpe has done. You won’t. He has cut his pull rate by 21.4% (46.7% to 25.3%). Betts’s 13.8% decline is the next biggest turning away from the pull side.
The Dodgers coming to Yankee Stadium is a clash of titans and the rare renewal of a classic rivalry. The Yankees and Dodgers rank Nos. 1 and 2 in OPS, respectively, and 1 and 3 in home runs, slugging and ERA, respectively.
The Dodgers are 13–24 in the Bronx, including 3–2 in regular season games in 2016 (when the Yankees were in fourth place) and 2013 (when the Dodgers were 29–39). In the postseason, the Yankees own a big edge at home against the Dodgers, 22–10. (The Yankees were a fourth-place team when they met in the 1981 World Series; having qualified for the playoffs in the split season of the strike-marred year by winning the division in the first half.)
The star power is off the charts this weekend. Six of the past 14 MVP Awards have been won by players in this matchup (Ohtani has won two; Judge, Freeman, Betts and Stanton one each). Ohtani is a career .130 hitter at Yankee Stadium, the seventh worst of anyone with 50 plate appearances in the latest version of the yard—but he does have four homers there in just 46 at-bats. Judge has a 1.026 OPS in Yankee Stadium, the highest by any active player in any park with at least 1,500 plate appearances.
Judge has homered in 28% of the games he has played in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees win 79.0% of games when Judge homers in the Bronx (98–26). For some historical perspective, Babe Ruth homered in 27% of his games in the original yard while the Yankees won 77.1% of those games (178–53).
Amid all the MVPs and the monster home run hitters, however, don’t overlook the importance of the 5'9" leadoff hitter for New York looking to make his first All-Star team. Volpe has emerged as an impact player. The Yankees are 27–5 (.844) when Volpe scores a run and 14–14 (.500) when he doesn’t.
The New York Yankees pulled off a comeback victory against the San Francisco Giants on Sunday afternoon, rallying in the top of the ninth inning as they deftly turned a 5–3 deficit into a 7–5 lead.
After Anthony Volpe hit an RBI triple to make it a one-run game, Soto came to the plate and gave the Yankees the lead, unloading a 398-foot blast to right center field off of Camilo Doval.
Soto took a moment to admire his moonshot, too. After the no-doubt home run came off the bat, Soto stopped and watched it fly into the stands before taking a step and launching a huge bat flip.
The two-run blast in the ninth inning was Soto's second home run of the game. He's now up to 17 homers in his first season in New York as he and Aaron Judge have been putting on a show on a near nightly basis of late.
The Yankees improved to 42–19 with Sunday's win, and Soto's contributions to the victory can't be understated. Aaron Boone commended his performance after the game, too.
"That's some savage at-bats right there," Boone said of the star outfielder via the YES Network.
The team is off on Monday before it returns to New York for a series against the Minnesota Twins, which gets underway on Tuesday.
Following Saturday's 7–3 win over the San Francisco Giants on Saturday, New York Yankees star outfielder Aaron Judge acknowledged that the series against the team he grew up rooting for means a little bit more than any other.
Judge, a Linden, Cali. native, has now homered in each of the two games the Yankees have played against the Giants—and he has done so in front of countless friends and family members at Oracle Park in San Francisco.
After the game on Saturday, Judge was asked about what it's like to "come home" and get the chance to play in the ballpark where the team he grew up loving plays.
Judge acknowledged how much it means to him, saying that he wants to "do something special" for the friends and family who have showed up to support him.
"I have a lot of family and friends in town. You've got to do something special for them, I'm trying to stay locked in and put on a show for them."
"I have a lot of family in town, a lot of friends in town," Judge said. "You've got to do something special for them, I'm trying to stay locked in and put on a show for them."
And put on a show, Judge has.
The Yankees slugger, on the heels of a red-hot month of May that saw him post a 1.397 OPS in 28 games while breaking out of an April slump, has gone 4-for-7 with three home runs and six RBI in two games in San Francisco, including a 464-foot moonshot to left field on Saturday.
Judge, during his 2022 free agency bid, nearly ended up in a Giants uniform. Even though that didn't come to fruition, it's safe to say that the Yankees captain is making the most of his first opportunity to play in a ballpark that's very near and dear to his heart.
How would the average person describe a group of people having a good time? Depending on their generation, there could be a wide variety of answers, particularly if a member of Gen Z is describing the situation.
New York Yankees play-by-play commentator Michael Kay, who is 63 years old, opted to utilize a piece of lingo that has become popularized by Gen Z in an amusing moment during Saturday's broadcast of New York's 7–3 win over the San Francisco Giants.
When a boat transporting a bunch of dancing and excited-looking Giants fans passed by the bay outside Oracle Park during the bottom of the second inning, Kay didn't miss a beat, declaring that the "People are lit!"
Kay's partner and former Yankees outfielder Paul O'Neill, couldn't believe his ears—or contain his laughter—at the sound of the 63-year-old Kay using the word 'lit.'
"People are lit!" Kay exclaimed, as O'Neill burst into laughter.
"Excuse me, Michael?" O'Neill asked. "Can you explain that?"
"They're very happy," Kay replied.
Kudos to Kay and O'Neill for providing some comedic relief during the broadcast, although it might not have even been the funniest moment involving New York baseball broadcasters on Saturday.
