There are several key trends to know ahead of Game 1, starting with Boston's record as a home favorite. The C's are 26-21-2 against the spread as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of 14.4 points per game.
Boston also has the best against the spread record in the first half of games this season (63-32-1).
Dallas Mavericks on the Road
The Mavericks are an NBA-best 34-16 against the spread on the road, but we can break that down even further.
As a road underdog, Dallas is 14-11 against the spread, which isn't as great, but it thrived as a road favorite, going 20-5 ATS. Unfortunately, the Mavs are road dogs in Game 1.
Game 1 Favorites Dominate Since 2005
Since 2005 Game 1 favorites are an insane 16-3 against the spread, and going back the past 30 years, they are 21-9 against the spread.
Boston is favored by 6.5 points in Game 1, and it has covered in two of the three opening games of its playoff series.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Editors’ note, June 5, 4:40 p.m. ET: This story has been updated to reflect the Boston Celtics' injury report for Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals.
There are many impressive aspects of the Boston Celtics' march through the Eastern Conference to the NBA Finals. Perhaps most impressive is that they ran through all their opponents without Kristaps Porzingis.
Porzingis, who averaged 20.1 points and 1.9 blocks in 29.6 minutes per game this season, went down with a calf injury on April 29 during Game 4 of the Celtics' first round series against the Miami Heat.. He hasn't seen the floor since, but Boston still posted an absurd 12-2 record over the first three rounds of the playoffs. Since he was healthy for one of those losses, that means the Celtics lost only one game in the month Porzingis has missed.
It is remarkable in many ways and speaks to the depth of the roster that president of basketball operations Brad Stevens built. And with Boston securing its place in the 2024 NBA Finals by way of sweeping the Indiana Pacers on Monday night, the time has finally arrived to see if the franchise can earn its 18th championship. The health of Porzingis will play a substantial role in that quest, and the Celtics earned themselves an extended break to get everybody (including their Latvian big man) healthy as can be.
Will Porzingis return in time to help the Celtics battle in the NBA Finals? Here's the latest on his right soleus strain.
Over the last week all signs have been pointing to Porzingis being ready to go for tip-off on Thursday for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. He confirmed this to be the case while speaking to reporters on Wednesday, stating plainly that he plans to play.
As the Celtics have made abundantly clear over the last four weeks, they can win without Porzingis. But to reach the mountaintop and cement themselves in NBA history, they will take all the help they can get. A possible return at full health would be a game-changer against the Mavericks.
UPDATE, June 5, 4:40 p.m. ET: The Celtics released their injury report for Game 1 of the Finals, and Porzingis is not listed. That means he's going to suit up.
While the Celtics, by and large, match up well with the Mavericks, Porzingis would alter both ends of the court drastically. His ability to score on smaller defenders would severely limit the effectiveness of the switch-everything defense the Mavs have employed so successfully this playoffs. It's one thing when Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving is switched onto Rudy Gobert, who for all his value does not punish defenders in the post. But when they end up on Porzingis, who averaged 1.09 points per possession on post-up attempts (ninth in the NBA)? It means an easy bucket for Boston more often than not, and easy buckets are not supposed to happen in the NBA Finals.
If the Mavs don't switch, then Porzingis needs to space the floor in order to ensure Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II don't live in the paint. Dallas's pair of big men have been excellent locking down rim attempts in the postseason, which is especially crucial given Irving and Doncic's energy can wane on that end. Keeping Porzingis out beyond the three-point line means head coach Jason Kidd has to choose between guarding the 7-foot-3 center with one of Gafford/Lively, taking away easy chances to contest layups, or put someone smaller out there and start with a mismatch on Porzingis.
Defensively the Celtics may be challenged to play to Porzingis's strengths. He's best in drop coverage, and drop coverage is tough to play against shot-makers like the Mavs boast. Al Horford is a better switching defender and may end up playing big minutes as he did throughout the opening weeks of the playoffs. But Porzingis did average 1.9 blocks per game. He is a great rim protector whose skills are always useful, even if they may not be exactly optimal in this series.
As noted in a previous article about this very topic, Porinzigs' injury history is concerning and why the Celtics are taking it so slow.
His most serious injury came in February 2018, when Porzingis tore his ACL while playing for the New York Knicks. He missed the rest of the 2017-'18 season and the entirety of the 2018-'19 season in recovery. Since then, Porzingis has accumulated all sorts of bumps, brusies, and strains that have forced him to miss considerable time. He missed 39 games in 2020-'21, 31 games in 2021-'22, and 17 games in 2022-'23.
This past season, Porzingis missed 28 regular season games as he dealt with a variety of small injuries, the most severe of which was a calf strain that forced him to sit out a handful of contests. After suffering his right soleus strain, Porzingis has now missed 10 games.
After a week off, the NBA returns for the Dallas Mavericks-Boston Celtics matchup in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.
Boston – the favorite in the series – comes into this matchup as a 6.5-point favorite after Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and company rolled through the Eastern Conference, going 12-2 to reach the Finals.
The Mavericks have been a little more battle-tested, but they flexed their muscle in the Western Conference Finals to close the Minnesota Timberwolves out in five games behind four games of 32 points or more from Luka Doncic.
Dallas has struggled in Game 1s in the Jason Kidd era, going 1-5 straight up, but 6.5 points is quite the spread for an opening game in the Finals. Can Boston, who had the No. 1 net rating in the regular season – and so far in the playoffs – show why it’s the favorite on Thursday?
Here’s our full betting preview with the latest odds, key players to watch and a best bet for Game 1:
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Mavericks Injury Report
Celtics Injury Report
Dallas Mavericks
Luka Doncic: The 2023-24 regular season MVP finalist leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made, recording six triple-doubles in 17 games. Luka really came on in the Western Conference Finals, scoring 32 or more points in all four of Dallas’ wins, and he is going to be the main focus for Boston’s defense in Game 1.
Boston Celtics
Jayson Tatum: Jayson Tatum has not shot the ball well in the postseason – 44.2 percent from the field, 29.0 percent from 3 – but he’s made an impact elsewhere averaging over 10 rebounds and five assists per game. Tatum didn’t play his best in his first NBA Finals appearance in 2022, but the Celtics star has a better team around him – and that experience to lean on – in this series.
Boston deserves a little more respect for its run to the Finals, even if it faced a few banged-up teams along the way.
The C’s needed just 14 games to get through the East, winning in blowouts against Miami and Cleveland as well as taking three games against the Indiana Pacers where the Pacers had a 90 percent win probability or higher in the fourth quarter of three of the four games.
I think that bodes well for a Boston team that covered in two of its three Game 1s so far this postseason and was 37-4 straight up at home in the regular season. The C’s also posted a 26-21-2 against the spread record as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of victory of 14.4 points.
I have a lot of respect for the run Dallas made, but Jason Kidd’s team has struggled in Game 1s since he took over, going 1-5 straight up and losing four of those five games by seven or more points.
I’m worried about Dallas’ role players and whether or not they’ll make enough shots for key defenders like Derrick Jones Jr. and PJ Washington to stay on the floor for the majority of the game. Boston, on the other hand, is going to be even deeper with Kristaps Porzingis likely back in action.
I’ll lay the points with the C’s in Game 1.
Pick: Celtics -6.5 (-110)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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If you thought the United States men's basketball team—Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James, Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant and friends—was the only cohort of American NBA players headed to the Paris Olympics, you would be mistaken.
One other ex-NBAer is headed to sports' biggest stage—in beach volleyball.
Chase Budinger, a forward for the Houston Rockets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Indiana Pacers and Suns from 2010-16, has officially qualified for the Paris Games. Budinger and partner Miles Evans punched their ticket Wednesday, with the elimination of Americans Theo Brunner and Trevor Crabb from a qualifying tournament in the Czech Republic.
A blue-chip prospect in both basketball and volleyball out of high school, Budinger chose hoops and played three productive seasons at Arizona. The Detroit Pistons made him the 44th pick of the 2009 NBA draft.
In 2018, he returned to beach volleyball, beginning a successful partnership with Evans in 2023.
Olympic competition in the sport is scheduled to open July 27.
At long last, the NBA Finals are just a day away, and I’m ready to lock in three plays for Game 1 – all of which end up being on the Boston side.
Earlier this week, I made my official prediction for this series (Boston Celtics in 6), and like many NBA fans, I’m ready for this series between Boston and the Dallas Mavericks to start.
This season, I’ve bet on the NBA every day that there have been games, and while we’re not positive on the year at the moment, a Celtics preseason future could get us there – depending upon how these Finals go.
We’re starting strong in Game 1 with three plays – two props and one side – with Boston entering the game as a 6.5-point favorite.
Eastern Conference Finals MVP Jaylen Brown has been terrific in the playoffs, averaging 25.0 points per game while shooting 54.3 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from 3-point range.
Brown has been much more efficient than Jayson Tatum, and he finds himself with a points prop that is four points lower than his co-star in Game 1.
I love the OVER here for Brown, who has cleared 22.5 points in nine of his 14 playoff games, including all four of his matchups in the Eastern Conference Finals.
While the return of Kristaps Porzingis could eat into Brown’s usage, I don’t expect KP to return to his normal role in his first game back from a calf injury. Brown has played a ton of minutes, clearing 40 in three of his last five games, and he’s taken at least 17 shots in 11 of 14 games this postseason.
JB has some serious value at this number ahead of Game 1.
Jrue Holiday OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-122) – 0.5 unit
Jrue Holiday may not win an ECF MVP or Finals MVP, but he has been a massive difference maker in his first season in Boston.
Holiday’s defensive prowess makes him a staple in Joe Mazzulla’s rotation, and dating back to the second round he’s really stuffed the stat sheet overall.
Holiday is averaging 17.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game over his last seven games, clearing 22.5 PRA in six of those contests.
I imagine Holiday will draw the assignment on either Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving, and he should play heavy minutes in Game 1. Betting on Boston props is a little volatile since we don’t know Porzingis’ usage, but this number has dropped significantly for Holiday compared to the 25.5 and 26.5’s that we saw in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The only NBA champion on the Boston roster should continue his strong play in Game 1.
Boston Celtics -6.5 (-110) vs. Dallas Mavericks – 0.5 unit
I think that bodes well for a Boston team that covered in two of its three Game 1s so far this postseason and was 37-4 straight up at home in the regular season. The C’s also posted a 26-21-2 against the spread record as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of victory of 14.4 points.
I have a lot of respect for the run Dallas made, but Jason Kidd’s team has struggled in Game 1s since he took over, going 1-5 straight up and losing four of those five games by seven or more points.
Boston – the best team in the NBA all season long – has been disrespected in my eyes entering this series. It went 12-2 on its run to the Finals and easily posted the best net rating of any team in the playoffs.
I’ll lay the points with the C’s in Game 1.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Chicago Bulls guard Lonzo Ball's hypothetical return to game action has been a long time coming.
Ball played his last basketball game on Jan. 14, 2022 — a 138-96 loss in Chicago to a Golden State Warriors team that went on to win the NBA title. Since then, his once-promising career has been derailed by a nagging knee injury.
However, there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel. The Bulls expect Ball to return at some point during the 2025 season, according to a Tuesday afternoon report from Darnell Mayberry of The Athletic.
"Team officials are confident Ball, out since Jan. 14, 2022, due to a chronic knee ailment, will play next season. They’re just not as confident about when," Mayberry wrote. "Opening night doesn’t sound likely."
Ball will turn 27 on Oct. 27; he was just 24 in Jan. 2022. If the former Los Angeles Laker and New Orleans Pelican can summon even a fraction of his early-career magic upon his return, Chicago fans will be in for a treat.
The Chicago Bulls drafted forward Patrick Williams with the fourth overall pick in 2020, and his tenure with the team may be coming to an end this offseason.
Williams is expected to become a restricted free agent this summer. If the Bulls decide to put Williams on the trade market, supposedly one team is interested in potentially signing and trading for the forward—the Oklahoma City Thunder, according to The Athletic's Darnell Mayberry.
The Bulls negotiated a contract for Williams last fall, which was valued at more than $16 million, a source told Mayberry, but the deal did not come to fruition. If the Thunder can offer Williams more than what the Bulls did last season, it's possible the former first round pick will make his way to Oklahoma City.
Williams missed a majority of the 2023–24 season, though, after he suffered a season-ending foot injury back in January. In the 43 games he played last season, he averaged 10 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game.
The Bulls hold the 11th pick in the NBA draft, which begins on Wednesday, June 26, while the Thunder have the 12th pick. The draft might have some impact on the Bulls' decision about Williams's future on the team, too.
Chicago Bulls guard DeMar DeRozan will become an unrestricted free agent this summer, but there is mutual interest between franchise and player for DeRozan to return to Chicago on a new contract this offseason, according to a report from Darnell Mayberry of The Athletic.
The-soon-to-be 35-year-old DeRozan spoke glowingly about his three seasons with the franchise following the trade deadline in February, and according to Mayberry, DeRozan has reiterated his interest in a return to the front office.
DeRozan compared his impending free agency to a relationship with a spouse:
“It’s, like, ‘What we need to do to work on this, baby? Let’s figure this thing out. You want me. I want you.’ The love is there.” pic.twitter.com/zgYOL3lw2q
The Bulls have been willing to offer DeRozan a two-year deal, but the veteran covets more security than a two-year deal given his age. There is a belief that a new contract would exceed $40 million annually, as DeRozan remains a very good player in his mid-30s.
The reliable DeRozan played in 79 games for Chicago this season, and averaged 24.0 points per game with 5.3 assists and 4.3 assists on 48.0% shooting.
Veteran forward Montrezl Harrell, the 2020 NBA Sixth Man of the Year, has begun his comeback bid after tearing his ACL in offseason workouts and missing this entire basketball season.
Harrell, who declined a $1.97 million player option with the 76ers to become a free agent last June, ended up re-signing with the franchise the following month. However, Harrell suffered an ACL in early August during offseason workouts, and was subsequently waived by Philadelphia in late October.
Now a free agent, the 30-year-old Harrell is working out in the Drew League, a popular pro-am summer league in Los Angeles. Here's a clip of Harrell in game action with Black Pearl Elite:
If Harrell can prove he's healthy, he should have some suitors in free agency this summer. Harrell averaged 5.6 points and 2.8 rebounds in 57 games for the 76ers in the 2022-23 season, but has averaged 12.1 points and 5.0 rebounds on 61.9% shooting from the floor in his eight-year career.
