Muirfield Village Archives

The Memorial Tournament Round One Leader Odds and Prediction

If you don't have the patience to wait for all four rounds of a PGA Tour event to conclude to find out if you've won your bet, or if you just want to make watching the first round more exciting, than betting on who will be the first-round leader may be the move for you.

You can find my favorite full-tournament outright picks in my betting preview here, but in this article, we're going to focus on who's going to be leading after Thursday's opening round.

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Collin Morikawa +1600

Collin Morikawa has been trending in the right direction lately, finishing T4 at the PGA Championship and then solo fourth at the Charles Schwab Challenge where he gained strokes in all four major areas. He struggled through February and March but now it seems like not only are his irons back in form, but his short game has been great as well. He has gained strokes on the greens in four of his last five starts in individual stroke play events.

Morikawa has also had plenty of success at Muirfield Village. He won the Workday Charity Open here in 2020 when the course hosted back-to-back events due to the COVID-19 schedule and then followed it up with a solo second finish here in 2021.

If we're going to bet on anyone to be the first-round leader, we need to look to see how they have scored in opening rounds this season and Morikawa passes that test with flying colors. Only Scottie Scheffler has a better Round 1 scoring average than Morikawa, who has an average opening round score of 68.08. That's by far his best average score amongst all four rounds.

He's averaging a score of 70.50 in Round 2, 69.70 in Round 3, and 71.00 in Round 4. That paints the clear picture that if you want to bet on the 27-year old, the time to do it is on Thursdays.

Pick: Collin Morikawa First Round Leader +1600

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

3 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

2024 Memorial Tournament Picks, Predictions, and Odds (Target Ball Strikers at Muirfield Village)

Robert MacIntyre was victorious North of the Border and now the PGA Tour heads to Muirfield Village for the penultimate signature event of the season, the Memorial Tournament.

The top golfers on the PGA Tour will be competing this week in preparation for next week's U.S. Open, meaning the No. 1 golfer in the world, Scottie Scheffler, is back in the field and understandably set as the significant favorite.

Let's dive into everything you need to know to bet on this event, including my best bets.

Memorial Tournament odds

The top 15 odds to win listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook

Memorial Tournament how to watch

Memorial Tournament purse

Memorial Tournament notable golfers

Scottie Scheffler: The No. 1-ranked golfer in the world returns to action this week after finishing T2 at the Charles Schwab Challenge two weeks ago. He has yet to win the Memorial Tournament but finished third at this event the last two times he's played here. If he even brings his "B" game, he's going to win.

Viktor Hovland: The defending champion is going to be in an interesting spot this week. Not only is he heading to a course where he'll feel comfortable, but he's coming off a solo third at the PGA Championship, his best finish of the season. If he can bring that momentum into this week, he has a chance to go back-to-back in Muirfield Village.

Memorial Tournament best bets

Corey Conners +5500

Corey Conners made a run at last week's RBC Canadian Open, finishing solo sixth. He's quietly been playing some good golf, finishing T13 or better in three of his last four starts along with a T26 finish at the PGA Championship. In his last three starts, he has been striking the ball better than almost anyone else on Tour, gaining at least +1.13 true strokes per round with his irons.

The most notable change has been his putting. Conners gained +1.73 strokes putting per round last week, one of the best putting performances of his career. If he finally figured something out on the greens, he's going to get his third PGA Tour win sooner rather than later.

As a cherry on top, he finished 13th here in 2022, so he's proven he can play well at Muirfield. He's my favorite bet on the board this week at 55-1 odds.

Tom Kim +7000

Tom Kim has had a down season, but now might be the time to invest. He has improved in each of his last five starts going T52, T47, T26, T24, and then T4 at last week's RBC Canadian Open. Last week was by far his best performance of the season so if you want big odds on a guy whose game has consistently trended in the right direction, Kim could be your guy.

He's available at 70-1 at Caesars Sportsbook.

Billy Horschel +8000

Some times you just have to take a shot on a golfer with long odds who's a horse for a course. Billy Horschel won this event in 2022 and has two other two other top-10 finishes here over the past decade in 2020 and 2019.

He has also been statistically much better this season than he's been getting credit for, ranking 11th in total strokes gained heading into this week. Also, at a difficult course like Muirfield, it doesn't hurt to bet on a guy who's 16th in scrambling percentage and 11th in bogey avoidance.

He's worth a bet this week at 80-1.