It's travel day in MLB with some teams heading to whichever city they'll play their weekend series, but we still have 10 games across the Majors for us to watch and bet on today.
If you're like me and you find more value in betting on player props when it comes to baseball, you've come to the right place. I've narrowed in on three prop bets that I'm locking in for Thursday's slate.
Let's dive into them.
Mariners vs. Athletics Prop Bet
We're going to continue to make the same bet in almost every single Seattle Mariners game. We'll once again take the OVER on the strikeout total for the pitcher they're facing, which this time is JP Sears.
The Mariners have the highest strikeout rate in MLB, striking out on 27.4% of their plate appearances. That's 1.3% higher than the next worst team.
Sears isn't exactly known as a strikeout pitcher, but he's gone over this number in four different starts already this season including his most recent start against the Atlanta Braves. There's no reason why he can't reach five strikeouts against the Mariners' bats.
Hunter Green of the Cincinnati Reds has had a bit of an issue with his command of late. He's allowed at least four walks in three of his last six starts including his most recent start which came against this very same Cubs team. He gave up five walks in 6.0 innings pitched.
With his walk total set at just 2.5 with the odds set at +150, I won't hesitate to bet on him to hit the over on his walk total against the Cubs once again.
We've already placed two pitcher prop bets, so now let's bet on a hitter. The Arizona Diamondbacks take on the San Diego Padres in the final game of the night and we're going to narrow in on Luis Arraez of the Padres.
He has been on fire lately, ranking 17th in the Majors in batting average amongst all batters with at least 15 plate appearances over the past 14 days. In that stretch, Arraez is batting .367. he also has eight runs and six RBIs in that time frame.
He and the rest of the Padres will face Slade Cecconi of the Diamondbacks, who has a poor ERA of 5.59 on the year.
I'm going to bet on Arraez to record at least three hits, runs, and RBIs.
Boston's Jamie Westbrook stepped in as a pinch-hitter in a 9-0 game on Wednesday against the Braves and had a moment he'll never forget when he slapped a single to left field on a 3-2 count
Normally a hit like that near the end of a blowout wouldn't mean all that much to anyone involved but for Westbrook it meant everything, as it was his first major league hit after spending 11 years in the minor leagues.
His family watching from the stands loved it and his teammates in the dugout also went nuts,.
This was great:
After 11 years and 1,159 games in the minors, Jamie Westbrook has his first big league hit! 👏 pic.twitter.com/Gmquej9Qwl
11 years in the minors and 6 different organizations. Was a pro's pro when I covered his Biloxi team in 2021, when he also played for Team USA in Tokyo.
If you’ve followed my bets at Sports Illustrated, you know I love nothing more than plus-money action.
On the surface, backing the Pirates (28-32) vs. the Dodgers (38-24) looks pretty crazy. Los Angeles is the heavy favorite at -180, while Pittsburgh backers will be paid +158 if they pull off the upset.
No, rookie sensation Paul Skenes is not pitching for the Bucs. He got the win on Wednesday night. Neither is Jared Jones. He won on Tuesday. Instead, we will see Bailey Falter get the ball in Pittsburgh as the Pirates go for the sweep.
No one is buzzing about Falter the way they are about his teammates above, but those paying close attention know Falter has an ERA of just 2.56 across his last10 starts. That’s not too shabby.
Full disclosure: Falter is a lefty and the Los Angeles Dodgers mash lefties. They own the second-best OPS and ISO and the third-best SLG vs. southpaws in MLB (hence the -180). However, this team has been struggling offensively lately, averaging just 3.18 runs per game across the last two weeks of play.
Righty Walker Buehler gets the start for the Dodgers. Since returning in May from Tommy John surgery, Buehler has not returned to his previous form. Buehler has an ERA of 4.32 in his five starts this season, and in his two away starts, his ERA is 6.00.
Buehler isn’t generating whiffs, and his 2.16 home runs allowed per nine innings is among the worst in MLB. That could spell trouble if the Pirates continue hitting well.
The Pirates have averaged five runs per game across the past two weeks of play, the fifth-most in MLB. Bryan Reynolds is swinging a hot bat with three home runs and 14 RBI in that period.
Pittsburgh is 9-5 as the home underdog this season. That 64% win rate as the home underdog is the fifth-best in MLB.
The Dodgers are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
The Pirates are 6-4, including a 10-6 win vs. the Dodgers last night.
The Pirates bullpen is a wild card in the event, but no risk it, no biscuit. Who wants to take a walk on the wild side?
Major League Baseball announced on Tuesday that it will partner with the White House in efforts to reduce deaths from opioid overdoses, in part through an ad campaign this summer focused on drugs that can reverse overdoses, such as naloxone.
“I can't think of a more important public health issue than this particular one,” says Jon Coyles, MLB’s vice president of drug health and safety programs. He adds, “I think our experience and our focus on naloxone in our industry will hopefully, just because of the public facing nature of baseball, help with the public awareness and contribute to the national conversation on this.”
The White House announced last year its Challenge to Save Lives from Overdose initiative; as part of the push, it has asked schools, libraries, airlines and other workplaces to stock naloxone.
The winter after Skaggs died, the league and the union agreed to begin testing for drugs of abuse, with those who tested positive referred to medical professionals. Only players who decline treatment are subject to discipline. The league also began encouraging ballparks and trainers to carry naloxone, which can reverse an overdose if the patient receives it in time.
MLB administered some 12,000 drug tests to players last year, and Coyles says opioid use remains low among players. Still, the league is increasing efforts to reach out to their families and to fans, including by partnering with Song for Charlie, a nonprofit that attempts to raise awareness among people ages 13 to 24 about pills that unexpectedly include fentanyl, which is much more lethal at much smaller amounts than what users may think they are taking. The league plans to debut a campaign at the All-Star Game in July, geared toward fans.
As for players and staffers, in 2023 that ’19 recommendation became law. All major and minor league ballparks are required to store naloxone in clubhouses, weight rooms, dugouts and umpire dressing rooms, and all trainers keep the drug on their person at all times, including on flights and at hotels. As far as he knows, Coyles says, no one has ever needed it. If the other prongs of their approach work, they hope no one ever will.
Last year, a promotional giveaway item featured Aaron Judge's already iconic No. 99 on the back of a basketball jersey, and fans went wild for it. This year, the New York Yankees wisely went back to the same giveaway with two big changes: This year, it's white with blue pinstripes (last year's giveaway was blue with white stripes) and it features their newest star: Juan Soto.
The giveaway is on Wednesday this week for the team's night game against the Minnesota Twins, but before Tuesday's game, Soto was doing his part to generate some excitement for it, as he was seen warming up in the jersey:
The Yankees had a feeling Soto would be good enough to create some hype for this giveaway, but even the most optimistic projection may not have had him being this good so early in the season. His OPS+ is 189 going into Tuesday night's series opener, bested only by one player in MLB: Aaron Judge (200).
While Soto undoubtedly maxes out the swag factor of such a jersey, fans are excited to try their hand at looking just as cool wearing it:
The giveaway is sponsored by Canon and limited to the first 18,000 guests on Wednesday, according to the Yankees. Save for a George Costanza bobblehead later this season, there may be no giveaway as anticipated as this one in the Bronx this season.
The white-hot Phillies boast first baseman Bryce Harper, (injured) shortstop Trea Turner and ace-in-the-making Ranger Suarez. The struggling Mets can still point to shortstop Francisco Lindor, first baseman Pete Alonso and designated hitter J.D. Martinez.
New York cannot, however, point to pitcher Jake Reed—as he has not been on the team since 2022.
That's no matter to MLB's marketing team, however, which is displaying Reed's visage on at least one promotional poster in London—to the shock of Mets fans worldwide.
The 2024 Mets are being represented in some London promotions by... Jake Reed?
Is Reed a star fans may have forgotten, you may be asking (given that New York won 101 games in '22)?
Nope. In parts of two seasons with the Mets, he went 1-1 in nine games with an 8.18 ERA; he has a career ERA of 7.57 with three teams. He has not played organized baseball this year.
Why don't MLB's powers-that-be throw Jorge López on there while they're at it?
If the number is so big it has commas, they might be addicts. If it’s so small that there are numbers after the decimal point, they might be imbeciles.
Of the five players Major League Baseball disciplined on Tuesday for betting on baseball, only San Diego Padres utilityman Tucupita Marcano bet more than $1,000 on baseball. Philadelphia Phillies minor league infielder Jose Rodriguez bet $749.09. Padres minor league lefty Jay Groome bet $453.74. Arizona Diamondbacks reliever Andrew Saalfrank bet $445.87. Oakland A’s reliever Michael Kelly bet $99.22.
The three major leaguers were due to make approximately $750,000 this season. Marcano, who bet more than $150,000 on baseball in 2022 and ’23, including games in which his team played while he was on the injured list, is out of the sport for life, the first lifetime ban levied for betting on baseball since Pete Rose’s in 1989; the others, who bet on major league games as minor leaguers from 2020 to ’23, will sacrifice a season. None of the players are appealing their discipline. Officially they are being punished for violating Rule 21. Unofficially they are being declared too dumb to play baseball.
Only one Major League Baseball rule offers no do-overs. If you do drugs or commit theft or beat someone up, there are ways back into the sport. If you do any of those things with your DraftKings account open to a parlay that includes your team, it’s over for you.
It’s posted in gigantic font in every professional clubhouse: “Any player, umpire, or Club or League official or employee, who shall bet any sum whatsoever upon any baseball game in connection with which the bettor has no duty to perform, shall be declared ineligible for one year.” And “Any player, umpire, or Club or League official or employee, who shall bet any sum whatsoever upon any baseball game in connection with which the bettor has a duty to perform, shall be declared permanently ineligible.” To be clear: They can bet on any other sport, so long as they do it legally. Just not baseball.
Players sit through interminable sessions in spring training, in multiple languages, in which they hear about the repercussions of betting on baseball. Seemingly every few weeks, Rose, a Hall of Fame talent who remains in exile for betting on Reds games in which he played and managed, resurfaces in the news insisting he has served his time. (Commissioner Rob Manfred has said he has no intention of reinstating Rose.) It would be impossible to be around the sport and not understand the consequences.
To be fair, it’s also impossible to be around the sport and not hear about gambling. Since a 2018 Supreme Court ruling cleared the way for legalized sports betting, the league has seemed at least as interested in catering to people who want to bet on games as to people who want to teach their kids to keep score. In 2018, Manfred named MGM the “Official Gaming Partner of Major League Baseball.” Last year, the league named FanDuel “a co-exclusive Official Sports Betting Partner of MLB.” We seem only weeks away from having broadcasters share betting lines on each pitch.
And addiction is a disease. Anyone who suffers from it deserves to get the help they need. But the players who are not addicted should simply be embarrassed.
There are worse crimes a person can commit against humanity. There are no worse crimes a person can commit against the sport. The entire enterprise rests on the public’s belief that the games are legitimate; the idea that people involved in the outcome might have goals other than winning chips away at the integrity of the sport. (It is in part for this reason that tanking so grates on fans.) And with the proliferation of prop bets, against which the league has strenuously lobbied with lawmakers, the possibilities have only multiplied. It’s a lot easier to track when someone is throwing games than when he is throwing one at bat.
Still, a lot of people are checking, some more nefarious than others. Even when a player is not betting on games in which he is playing, as seems to be the case here, it’s not hard to see the precariousness of his position. All five players insisted they had no inside information on the games on which they bet, and the league seems to have accepted that explanation. But when the losses start to climb past Groome’s $433.54, the danger only increases.
The starkest recent evidence of the risk came in the form of disgraced interpreter Ippei Mizuhara, who until March worked as the interpreter for Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani. On Tuesday Mizuhara pleaded guilty to bank and tax fraud and admitted to stealing nearly $17 million from Ohtani to pay off his sports-gambling debts to an illegal bookmaker. Mizuhara has insisted he never bet on baseball, and no one has yet said differently. MLB announced that in light of the plea, it considers Ohtani to be a victim and its investigation into him is closed. The league seems to have avoided that particular nightmare.
Meanwhile, MLB investigators work closely with legal sports betting operators, and indeed it was from one of those that the league learned in March that accounts connected to professional players had made bets on baseball. Four of them will be eligible to play again next season. We will see how many teams want to employ them. For, in Kelly’s case, $9.92 at a time, these players may have thrown away their careers. (Kelly was found to have placed 10 bets on baseball.)
The league did not release the net gains or losses of Marcano and Rodríguez, except to say that Marcano lost 95.7% of his baseball bets. Groome lost $433.54. Saalfrank lost $274.44. Kelly won $28.30. They may have lost everything.
Ippei Mizuhara, the former translator for Shohei Ohtani, pleaded guilty to multiple bank and tax fraud charges in federal court on Tuesday morning. With the guilty pleas Major League Baseball has closed its investigation, saying they consider Shohei Ohtani a victim of fraud, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan.
Ohtani also released a statement saying he wanted to “sincerely thank the authorities for finishing their thorough and effective investigation so quickly and uncovering all the evidence." Ohanit now plans to focus on "playing and winning ballgames."
Despite the distractions that began at the very start of the season, the Dodgers have amassed a 38-23 record, which is the secon best in the National League. Ohtani leads the Dodgers in doubles,home runs, batting average, slugging and OPS.
When Mizuhara arrived at the courthouse on Tuesday morning there was a media mob waiting and they had not dispersed by the time he left. Mizuhara did not end up making any remarks or respond to any of the questions that were shouted at him, but that didn't stop the assembled press from trying to get a comment.
Ippei Mizuhara arrives at federal court in Santa Ana where he is expected to plead guilty in Shohei Ohtani fraud case. He didn’t comment but attorney says they may have remarks after the hearing. @FOXLA#FOXLApic.twitter.com/1DZgPLxVia
Despite the distractions caused by this situation, which began on opening day, the Dodgers have amassed a 38-23 record, which is the second best in the National League. Ohtani leads the Dodgers in doubles, home runs, batting average, slugging and OPS.
Overall, it was quite a notable day for Major League Baseball on the gambling front. In addition to Mizuhara pleading guilty, Tucupita Marcano of the San Diego Padres was banned for life for betting on baseball and four other players were suspended for a year.
Rhys Hoskins returned to Philadelphia on Monday for the first time since parting ways with the Philadelphia Phillies this offseason, and the City of Brotherly Love welcomed him back with open arms.
Hoskins, who signed with the Milwaukee Brewers in free agency, spent the first seven years of his career with the Phils, and he received a warm reception from fans during his return to Citizens Bank Park on Monday evening as Philadelphia hosted the first of a three-game set against the Brewers.
The Phillies played Hoskins's old walk-up song, "Slide" by Calvin Harris, for his first at-bat of the game, something they very rarely do for opposing hitters, and the crowd rose to his feet to show their respect and admiration for the 31-year-old.
With his bat in one hand, an emotional Hoskins waved to the adoring crowd during an ovation that lasted for around a minute.
Although he popped out in his first at-bat during the second inning, he managed to ignite the crowd later on with a solo shot, which was Milwaukee's lone run of the game.
Despite the fact that Hoskins no longer dons the Phillies' white and red uniform, Monday's reunion made clear that there's no love lost between the veteran slugger and the fan base.
